MLB Fall Ball

The end of August I wrote an article about how the “Dog Days of August” would turn into the “Dog Plays of September”.   This has played out with accuracy as I write this Tuesday, September 13th.  After going 226-123 (65%) to end August, MLB favorites have fallen to a 90-70 (56%) mark in the month of September.  This includes just 3-8 last night.  At inflated prices on contending teams, you can see how this has turned into solid profit for underdog players. 

You don’t need to look much further than the fading fortunes of overpriced Atlanta (3-9, 0-4) or Boston (2-9, 0-5) to note that there is big money to be made against these 2nd placed teams who are feeling the pressure of contention.  At this writing, in the National League, Milwaukee is on a 1-5 slide and even the Phillies have lost 2 in a row as complacency sets in with their 12 game Division lead.  The only super surging contenders have been St. Louis (10-3, 5-1) as the Hunter in the Wild Card chase and Arizona (17-3) as they look to chase down Milwaukee for home field advantage. 

In the American League, the T Bay Rays are on an 8-1 streak as they play the role of Hunter in the AL Wild Card race.  Even the hot hitting Texas Rangers have been mediocre in the last 7 weeks posting just an 11-12 mark, many times as dominant favorite.

It is easy to assume that the teams who super surged in August will continue their ascent in the Division races.  But as either the pressure mounts, or complacency sets in, these teams year after year prove to be overpriced investments in the month of September. 

Joe Gavazzi