Dog Days of August Make Dog Plays of September - An MLB Fall Ball Planner

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Dog Days of August Make Dog Plays of September - An MLB Fall Ball Planner

If you will be betting any MLB Fall Ball this September, you will want to pay attention to what is being written in this article.

In my MLB daily analysis of August games, I gave you a running tally of how well favorites have been doing in the month of August. To update you once again: for the last 25 days through Sunday, August 28th 2011 favorites are 200-114 winning 64% of the games. As a subset of that, one should note that road favorites, often at much shorter prices, have gone 94-48 (66%), including 15-4 the last 4 days. My picks haveoften reflected these records. The psychology behind the success of road favorites in August is relatively simple. The best of these plays occur when super-surging contenders play with great focus on the road against towel-tossing pretenders whose fans are not providing nearly as much vocal support or attendance as the first half of the season. With still at least a month to play in the season, none of the favorites have gotten fat yet.

But as the days get shorter, the Division leads widen, and the prices become more inflated, the psychology will begin to shift. Now, these favorites become complacent. The managers of the contending teams begin to rest their starters (both pitchers and regulars) as they plan for post season festivities. At the same time, the underdog, though having no hope for the current season, turns its attention to playing for next year’s roster spot and padding their stats. That includes players on the September call up list looking to make a name for themselves in The Show.Combined with less focus on the part of the favorites and the value prices, September is a month when dogs can really howl.

Odds are that with the way the dog days of August have played out once again this season that there will be plenty of money to be made by playing the short at value prices in the month of September.
  • Great to see Joe's great insight is appreciated by the community!

  • Great points, thanks for sharing, will use this in September.

  • Thanks guys for all the support, really happy to be hear on Pregame.  Considering the Vegas trip next summer....

  • Well if the get together is still going to be next summer in Vegas that will give Joe plenty of time to figure something out. He is a must to have there.

  • We tried getting Joe to come out to Vegas to visit the office. He said that would require him leaving his office and set-up and passed. I thought I lived this stuff :)

  • Joe Its great to have you at PG. What an informative article. I will take it to heart in my own capping endeavors. Thanks

  • This is great; thank you.  

  • Excellent read Joe, I will keep this in mind both this year and and going forward in the future.