Greg Shaker

ARE YOU HANDICAPPING STARTING PITCHERS RIGHT?

2011-03-29T16:28:00Z

Doing Blogs is Tedious work and at some times of the year practically impossible. The CBB Season is one of those times when lines are hopping and distracting myself from them is just not wise. We are now heading into “The Blog Season” and I will be having quite a few of them. This first one is important stuff so make sure to pay attention. I see a lot of people around the Net that Handicap Starting Pitching as their main thrust in picking MLB Games. I believe that most spend way too much time doing this, but more importantly, they spend WAY too much time doing it the wrong way. One off those ways will be spelled out in this piece.

HOW MOST HANDICAPPERS HANDICAP PITCHING
There are many ways that people handicap starting pitching but they generally are related to their performance. I guess that makes sense right? Afterall, it is important how well a Thrower is throwing now, it is important how well he has thrown over his career and this year, and it is important to know how he has thrown at home, and on the road. In addition, it can be important to know how he has done verses certain clubs. The Latter is used way too much but that is another Article altogether.

It is unfortunate though that this is exactly how Sportsbooks want you to look at games, because this is how they set betting lines. The fact is, if Pitcher A is on a 3 Game Win Streak, Odds betting him are not going to be conducive to longterm profit. Should we not be finding value betting a Moneyline Sport?

WE CAN FIND VALUE OPPORTUNITIES
I spend most of my time thinking outside of the box because that is where we learn to be better bettors and that is where we have the Advantage over The Bad Guys. I spend hours, even days, looking for situations that win and that does include with this sport having a Database on each and every Pitcher in both leagues. I have learned a lot of things doing this, and primarily the tendencies of each thrower as to how they react to good outings, bad outings, pitch totals, Home/Away performance, certain types of ballparks, certain types of hitters, etc…

One of the most important things I have learned by working extra hard is that Pitch Totals is a VERY IMPORTANT TOOL to use.

WHAT DO WE MEAN BY PITCH TOTALS?
Most Starting Throwers are one Strict Pitch Counts. That simply means that regardless of how well or poor they are throwing in a particular game, the management is not going to let them exceed that number of throws in a game. However, this rule is bent to some extent. It is for instance bent when a Starter has a Shutout in the works. It is bent when a Starter has a large advantage over the particular hitters that are coming up in the lineup. There are other reasons why the rules are bent but these two are probably the most prevalent. There are also times when a Starter does not even come close to his Pitch Count. There are only 2 Reasons for this. An Injury, or Poor Performance. We are going to look at these two situations and we are going to have examples of each as to how that Thrower performs the next time on the mound.

A PITCHER EXCEEDS HIS PITCH COUNT
Starting throwers have different pitch counts but 95% off them fall in the 95 to 110 Throws per game. Exceeding this number of 110 most often means that a Thrower has Over-Worked, sometimes far Over-worked. In most cases it also means that he has thrown a Good Game, otherwise why would he be asked to Over-Work. This means 2 Things most often. It means that the next time he throws, he is likely to be Over-Valued by Oddsmakers. It also means that he is likely NOT to be as sharp. Are you following me? While Most Handicappers see a Pitcher coming off a Quality Start as a Good Thing, in this particular case, it might not be. I have randomly selected two Pitchers, one in the AL, and one in the NL, to do a case study on this. There are Edwin Jackson, and Derek Lowe. While the selections were random, I did choose two throwers that are “Better than Average” since these guys are the most likely to throw OVER their Pitch Count.

Edwin Jackson: Last Year on 5 Occasions, Jackson threw Over his Pitch Count. The Pitch Totals were 129, 149, 115, 123, and 115. While Overall his numbers for 2010 were good with an ERA of 3.24, following these 5 games his ERA was a Lofty 5.19. And the fact is, only one of these games were even close to being a quality outing, 3 runs in 7 Innings.

Derek Lowe: Lowe had just 3 games that exceeded his Pitch Count with 114, 119, and 112. But Boy did he Suck the next time on the mound. In fact while Lowe had one of his best seasons ever, maybe his very best in fact, garnering a 2.34 ERA for the year, the 3 Outings following these Over-extended Efforts produced 14 Runs in 14.1 Innings worked. Not only was his ERA Near 9.00, but he only managed to throw 4.7 Innings per game. And in fact, his Best Effort was 5.1 innings and 4 runs allowed.

A PITCHER FALLS WELL BELOW HIS PITCH COUNT
With 95 being the Bottom End of Pitch Counts, anything below 80 would be considered well below of what is expected of a Thrower and therefore I have selected that for our exercise. When a Thrower does not meet his Pitch Count it usually means 2 Things. It means that the next time he throws, he is likely to be Under-Valued by Oddsmakers. It also means that he is likely to be MORE sharp. Are you following me? While Most Handicappers see a Pitcher coming off a Poor Start as a Bad Thing, in this particular case, it might be a Good Thing. Why? Because his arm is likely to be more live, meaning his fastball has more zip, and his breaking pitches have more snap. It is also likely if he is a Quality Pitcher, that waiting 5 to 6 days to throw again, allows him time to reflect what went wrong and correct it. The Bottom Line here is that Good Throwers are Good Competitors and a Bounceback is often likely. Let’s look at Lowe last year

Derek Lowe: Last Year Lowe fell below his Pitch count 4 times. Those were on pitch counts of 78, 68, 79, and 78. While Lowe had an outstanding season last year with an ERA of 2.34, the four games following these 4 produced an ERA of just 1.77, or 5 runs allowed in 25.1 innings. His worst outing was 5.1 Innings and 2 runs allowed, his other 3 he allowed just 1 run each.

WHAT DOES ALL OF THIS MEAN?
Well first of all it does NOT mean that every pitcher shows this kind of activity following a High/Low Pitch Total game. However, many do and you have to get to know each one of them. Does this mean they are automatic bets or go againsts? Absolutely not. What it does mean is that some Hurlers exhibit Tired Arms after being Over-Worked, Live Arms after being Under-Worked, and almost in every case, they are Over or Under Valued based on each instance. Can this be a Tool in your Arsenal? Yes. How about an Over-Worked Starter being supported by a Poor Performing Bullpen? BINGO!

IS YOUR SPORTS BETTING A TOTAL MESS?

2010-10-19T14:23:00Z

Have you ever Wondered why most “Professional” Handicappers can wade through 50 to 70, and even more games on the Saturday and Sunday Card without Picking 1 Single Total, and then ask you to Bet one on Monday Nite? This phenomenon happens way too often and there are a lot of reasons why. The Primary one is the fact that Most Handicappers treat Totals as Evil and stay away from them unless they HAVE TO PICK ONE. That would of course be on a High Profile Monday Nite game, (The Sharpest Totals Anywhere) when they have decided they don’t like either side. But wait!! They have to have something to sell right? Why would you bet that game from one of these guys?

PROFESSIONAL HANDICAPPERS ARE NOT PROFESSIONAL GAMBLERS
This is probably one of the biggests misconceptions in this business that I love so much. Just because one has a website and “picks games” does not mean that one makes his living betting sports. Not Capitalizing on THE SOFTEST LINES in all sports, Totals, is a clue that your handicapper has a day job and that job is not betting for a living. The fact is, Real Professional Gamblers probably place 45% to 50% on these types of Bets overall in what they bet because they know that Vegas cannot effectively put out good numbers. Whether you use a “Paid” handicapper or not, you can too Pad your Bankroll with these types of wagers.

ODDSMAKERS ARE FRIGHTENED OF THESE BETS
You don’t have to wonder why Most Sportsbooks put their College Football Totals up for betting late in the week, usually Wednesday or Thursday. You don’t have to wonder why Most Sportsbooks put their CBB Totals up late in the day and often omit putting many games on the card at all. You don’t have to wonder why Most Sportsbooks have Lower Limits on these wagers as well. It is because they know that they are at a Huge Disadvantage with these Numbers and they really don’t even like to take the action. However, they do, because they know that if they don’t, somebody else will.

MAKE YOUR BOOKIE CRINGE
If you want to get the Upper Hand on the Guy you hate the most, you need to start looking at betting totals. Probably 45% of all of my Client Released Plays are Totals, and probably 55% of all of My personal wagers are too. In fact, I handicap totals first when looking at the weekly/daily card, because doing so gives me a better perspective on the side as well. Often while looking at what how many points/runs/goals might be scored, I discover who is going to score more of them. And I discover that without prejudice. That makes me an Overall Better Handicapper.

HOW DOES ONE GO ABOUT HANDICAPPING TOTALS?
This right here is a Book and we will talk about this fully in another segment at a later date. The Bottom Line is this. Totals that Books release are based on one thing and one thing only. Perception. In that respect, it is much like handicapping who is going to win a game. The fact is, if Nebraska scores 52 points on a Thursday Nite, you can best believe that next week, their Posted total is going to be High. It most likely is going to be TOO HIGH. Comparing matchups is key here as well in both CBB and CFB, which are the softest lines anywhere. Just simply looking at past scoring is NOT Recommended. You must determine who they scored upon, what type of defense, what type of team. You must set your own number prior to books releasing their’s and you must trust your numbers. There is way more to this type of wagering but I will stop for now.

WHO IS DOMINATING BOOKS WITH TOTAL BETS?
A few Handicappers in this business understand the value of betting these soft numbers and the one’s that concentrate their time on doing so are most affective. Ed Golden at Right Angle Sports is one of them. This guys is a Master of Totals and always has been. I think I am pretty damn good as well but I am not because I am a great handicapper or anywhere close. I am because I am a student of Totals and I already have a HUGE Advantage over the Bad Guys because they CRINGE as they release their Totals Lines. Would you like to make them Cringe? You can if you put in the effort to do so. While Most “Professional” Handicappers continue to play the Glamorous Side Wagers, this Professional Gambler will continue to bet these soft numbers.

THE 2010/2011 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW

2010-07-12T14:58:00Z

The time of the year is here. What time of the year is it? It is time for 100′s of Handicappers to spit out their 2010 College and Pro Previews and keeping up with the Industry in which I am part of, I feel it is important for me to do the same. A lot of Handicappers spend a lot of time doing this exercise every year and for the most part, all of the one’s that are out there to the general public are all the same. The fact is, most are copy and paste jobs from other Previews and the info derived from reading these are about the same as well. The Title of this piece might be misnamed but since everyone loves these Previews I thought I would would title it this way to get you to read it. If you let this sink in, this piece will make you a better handicapper though.

HOW CAN WE BENEFIT FROM THIS PHENOMENON?
As we know, Oddsmakers set lines based on Public Perception. They do this so that they can balance their books as closely as possible. Their only goal is to set the numbers so that equal, or about equal betting action is on both sides of the number can be had. There is no doubt that they want to know what Bettors are thinking and these Previews help them do that. Yes, that’s right. They read these Articles too and that means good things for us. It means that they know that they are more than likely going to get more action on the teams that are featured as “Gonna Score a lot” or “Gonna Have a Great Start” or “Gonna Have a Great Year.” Since all Previews are about the same, I would suspect that they don’t read them all, as there is no reason to. Just like everything else in this industry, most Handicappers derive their plays based on the same standard handicapping methodology that has been around for decades. That is where the “Under the Radar” Guy comes in.

THE SPECIAL SITUATIONS
Each year we have a number of these and Oddsmakers don’t know what to do with them. What are these situations? Certainly one of those would be the various Coaching Changes that we see every year. I am not absolutely talking about the Head Coach and in fact, more gain can be had by looking
into both the Offensive and Defensive Coordinator shifts in both College and Pro Football. Not only can these changes dramatically improve a team, they can damage one as well. That is especially true in the College Ranks, and that is especially true in the first couple or three weeks of the season. I covered some of this in “Handicapping Our Children” and the fact is College Athletes are NOT Grownups. Some of them are brilliant students, but learning new ways of doing things sometimes comes with growing pains. While Coaching Changes are designed to make things better, in the shorterm, they often do not. Looking for teams in this special situation can do your bankroll well. Key changes at key playing positions can also mean good things for teams but they too can mean disaster in the shorterm.

WHAT CAN WE DO TO GET A JUMPSTART?
Read. Not those 100′s of Previews being put out by those Handicapping Services. I personally spend a few hours a week reading local newspapers, school newspapers, Team Forums, Blogs, and I subscribe to any alerts or new articles that come out from these sources so that it comes to my inbox on a daily basis. Today alone, I will have some alerts and notices to read that have come my way, and many offer info that can’t be found anywhere else. Of course, you can’t believe everything you read, so it is always
wise to verify with as many sources as possible the info that might come your way. This is by far the best way to know what is really going on with the very many Division 1A schools in the land. In my many years of doing this, I have also met and chatted with some really sharp people who follow their favorite teams and they are there to answer any questions that I might have prior to the season opener or during the football season. You just can’t replace this with any other kind of info on the web or printed publication.

THE FUTURES AND EARLY TOTALS
September has always been my most profitable month of the year and I guess it always will be. Oddsmakers scramble every year to figure out setting correct lines and they fail miserably every year. It is always fun stuff for me to go back and read some of last year’s Previews to find out how poorly the recommendations were because many squads that are expected to be “Hot Shit” do not pan out, and some that are expected to be “Doodly Squat” do pan out. Teams with new offensive schemes often struggle a great deal in the early going and that creates some really good Total Opportunities for us. It also creates some Total Wins Futures as well. It is also important to note that returning starters on defense is probably the most important aspect of knowing who has got it and who does not. Sheer numbers of starters returning is less important than a good nucleus of better one’s. This is where your sources can come in handy, because many know how well replacements will fit the program. As always, I will have 4 to 7 Futures Bets this year and as always, they will do swimmingly well. You can look for those in late July to early August.

WINNING AT FOOTBALL IS NOT ROCKET SCIENCE
Much like Major League Baseball, digging into the numbers can make you a lot of money at this sport. Finding ways to find winners is more than just using the standard handicapping practices, and the various handicapping sites on the web. Knowing the mindset of teams, the Special Situations at the beginning and during the season, and thinking outside of the box will put you way ahead of those guys in the Big Buildings in Vegas who eat Goose Liver almost every day. Why not accept the challenge this year and be be the best that you can be? I promise you that if you do, you will never go back to what you are doing now.

THE TOP 10 REASONS TO LIVE IN THE MIDWEST

2010-06-07T17:17:00Z

This is a Re-Post of something that I did on Facebook a couple of years ago. Let me just say that I don't know if any of this is true and is only my perception of how it is up that way. Let me secondly say that I think that I am right about all them. (smile)

Number 10: Dripping Mustard on your shirt often gets comments from girls like. "Wow, you look really pretty good in yellow."

Number 9: Little, if any chance of being force fed Boiled Okra as a child.

Number 8: Being at a party in Columbus Ohio and hearing the Ohio State Co-ed mating call, " Hey, any of You Guys have a Kilbasa?

Number 7: Not having to ever know what it is like to be with a woman without Acne.

Number 6: Being able to say one day that you met Obama while in Illinois and that you knew that he would be a bust of a Politician.

Number 5: Always able to find people that agree with, and are willing to talk about, why the Big 10 is the Best Football Conference in the World.

Number 4: Wearing socks with Sandals are still in style and especially the knee high's.

Number 3: Discovering what you think is a Moose in your backyard and finding out later that it was just your wife taking out the trash..

Number 2: Still some Bumper Stickers able to be seen that say something like, "Those Gun Shootin' Baby Savin' Conservative Bastards down South can just die in the womb!"

And the Number 1 Best Reason to Live in the Midwest....

Cheese!!

THE LONG WALK TO THE MOUND?

2010-04-14T17:10:00Z

It is almost never a Happy Moment when a Major League Baseball Manager steps onto the field headed to the Mound. But it is much less happier when the Manager has to do it, not knowing whether he is making the right choice or not. I have continually proclaimed that a Good Bullpen can and will make all Major League Baseball teams better and not only because they get people out. The fact is, a Good MLB Pen makes starting pitchers better, and make hitters for the team they pitch for more productive. What did I just say?

Y.E.onDOMReady(show_notes_initially);

MLB Bullpens Feed Success

Just two days ago, I witnessed a game in which the Washington Nationals led the Phillies 4-0 going to the the bottom of the fourth inning. After 5 innings, they trailed 7-4. Why? Because the Nats Manager left the starter in too damn long. Why did he do that? Because he had no clear alternative as his bullpen was and is one of the worst in the Major League’s. So he left Marquis in there too long and Philly had a Feast. The Nats lost that game and they will continue to lose more this year the same way. But how often do we see a team that has good starting pitching but a poor bullpen? How often do we see a team that has a good Bullpen, but poor starting pitching? Almost never, because they work together to make it happen. Regardless of how good a starter is, he is going to run out of gas at some point in the contest. That is when the manager has the decision to jerk him, or leave him in, and that decision is determined by what other choices he has. Teams with Good Mid-Relievers have more options. That means that their Starter’s Stats are going to be better and on the other side, that means their Closers are going to be better also, because they get “Set Up” more often in a good spot and are more rested to make good things happen.

Managers Are Paid to Manage

This is what these guys do, hence their name. But they don’t get to do that as often with the throwers on the staff unless they have the confidence to to so. They also don’t have the opportunity to do more offensively with hit and runs, stolen bases, sacrifice bunts, and other offensive ploys unless they are working from strength. In this context strength simply means being in the game, trailing by small margin, tied, or ahead in the contest. Already this year we are seeing teams like the Bluejays, Twins, Athletics, Phillies and Cardinals win a lot of money for those that are betting them, and they are also winning a lot of games for their fans. Is it just a fluke that all of these teams are ranked in the Top 10 Bullpens this year so far? I don’t think so.

DOES GODZILLA LIVE IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD?

2010-03-24T16:11:00Z

Baseball Season is upon us and while many Bettors will be winding down and looking forward to the 2010 Football Season, I will be Revving it up over the next few months and producing profits that are simply not possible with football and hoops. Why is that? Because Baseball is not only a different animal, it is GODZILLA and the Japanese People in my neighborhood will once again be running for the hills. Baseball, unlike the other two major sports allows us to actually win more money than we bet, giving us the decided advantage over the books. Not only that, but because Baseball is a finese Sport, the Ole Phrase, “Anyone can beatAnyone else on any given day” is much more truer with this sport.

Underdogs Verses Favorites
I am going to try and do my best not to bore you with tons of statistics in this exercise, but we are going to have to use a few so bear with me. Let’s begin with Moneyline Stats over the last 8 years. This length of time gives us enough scope to determine what has been profitable and what has not. Betting Underdogs has not been profitable. However, we can find some situations that have been and the fact is, some are just plain BAD ASS Profitable. If you had bet ever Underdog in the last 8 years in
Baseball, you would have bet a lot of games and you would have lost just over 179 Units. That’s not too good but let’s look at the other side of the story. If you had bet every favorite you would lost over 730 Units. What does this mean? It means that you have over a 4 Times better chance of winning money if you bet Dogs. But you would still have lost right? Absolutely, because it can’t be that easy.

Baseball Underdogs that are Profitable
There are situations that have produced large profits over the last 8 years and the most prevalent one makes a lot of sense. Teams that play each other a lot often are more motivated to win and so it would make senses that Win/Loss Numbers would be close to 50% than any other situation. And they are. If you had bet all Divisional games (Teams in the same Division) over the last 8 years, you would have over 202 Units of Profit in your Wallet. That is a lot of money. That is GODZILLA Money. In addition to that, Dogs have done much better in the second half of the season and once again for a simple reason. Late in the year, more public money comes into play. That drives Line upward, giving you more value for your buck. I am not telling you to bet all Division Dogs, I am telling you that this is always a good starting point but there is more.

The Mid Relievers
There is a strong correlation between the strength of a team’s Bullpen and
how well they do both in the standings, and in the money made playing
them. When I talk about the Pens, I am not talking about who has the best
closer, although that does come into play. The average starting pitcher
rarely gets past the sixth inning. The average closer rarely gets past 2/3
of an inning. The fact is, as the season progresses, the starting thrower
becomes less and less important and from about May 20th until the end of
the season, starters will average just under 2/3 of an inning less than
previous games. That is based on the last 8 years and that is a
misconception to many. On average we can expect the guy who throws the
first pitch to last about 5.2 innings meaning 1 out short of 6. In
addition, we can expect him to leave the game more times than not, with
runners in scoring position and usually with less than 2 outs. That is why
the mid-line throwers are so important. Here is some info from a selected
year.

Top 6 Money Teams of 2006
Minnesota
Oakland
New York Mets
Detroit
Kansas City
San Diego

The Top 5 Bullpens of 2006
Minnesota
New York Mets
San Diego
Detroit
Oakland

These are listed in order and as you can see, the Top 6 Bullpen’s also
comprised the Top 5 Money Teams. The only excpetion was KC who won some
huge moneyline plays late in the year. Similar results can be found in
previous years and latter years. In most cases, I would rather have a mediocre starter and a good Pen, than the opposite. That works out very well since that is the exact opposite of the way Vegas would like us to think. Vegas Sets Baseball Lines on two factors. The Starting Pitcher and now good or bad he is, and the overall perception of how good or bad a team is. It is our job to determine whether those guys who set the odds have done their homework and often they have not. Let’s remember one important thing. The best pitcher in the league can have a bad outing, the worst one can have a good one, bullpens generally remain fairly consistant. We do have a rate Bullpens for teams like Tampa Bay and Colorado differently because of the venue at which they play. But in most cases, Bullpen ERA is the best way to do this.

Betting Baseball Favorites
It is a fact that over the last 11 years, Baseball favorites have won right at 58% of the time. That means that if all betting lines during this timeframe were -135 plays, one would have broken even. But they are not. And the winning percentages of those games -140 to -220 do not go up as the line goes up. Anything past -140 is the worst losing proposition in Baseball. If you are playing these, you already have one leg in the well and GODZILLA is closing fast. Run Akatsuki, run!! I am not saying that these play don’t sometimes offer value, I am saying that when you bet them, you are already starting out in the hole. Tread lightly with these.

Betting Baseball Runlines
This is probably my favorite subject but not my favorite bet. Anytime I have seen anyone on the internet talk about betting runlines, they always are doing so laying -1.5 Runs. Have we forgotten that we can bet +1.5 Runs? I do that often and when I do, it is usually a Dog Division Game with a pitcher on the mound coming off a poor effort. I am going to cover that Pitcher Poor effort thing in more detail but let’s stay focused on this for now. Below is the Probability of winning by more than 1 run when a team wins the game outright. These stats are from the last 9 years. They are very interesting indeed.

-110s: 70.8%
-120s: 72.3%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.1%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%

Does anyone see what I see? There is not that big a difference in teams winning by more than one run as the Moneyline Spread Rises. What does that mean for us? It means that playing -110’s to -140’s at -1.5 Runs is going to be more profitable than playing anything higher. But here’s the deal. Most Bettors don’t play -1.5 Runlines until the line gets to -150 and those ar the least profitable choice of all based on line value. I do rarely play any -1.5 Runline and all the Ducks have to be lined up before I even consider it, but when I do, I am going to be betting them to give me a + Money Payout and not a -. The Most interesting -1.5 Runline Stats are below and it denotes how often teams win by more than 1 run when they do win the game.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites more than -120: 80.1%

As we can see, Road -1.5 Runlines do much better than Home -1.5 Runlines. That is simply because the road team always gets their 9 times at bat whereas the home team does not. Vegas does adjust for this fact with lower runline payouts for road -1.5 runline teams.

Additional Thoughts
I could write an entire book on other situations that are winning propositions and I will have more info as the season progresses. I am going to have a separate article on Winning Baseball Totals a little later in the Spring. I do want to let everyone know that some of these stats here come from various websites as well as some that I keep myself. Let’s briefly talk about two of my favorite situations though. The first is The Bounceback Pitcher. I love this one because it gives us two things. It gives us a starter who is motivated to perform well following a not so spiffy performance. And it gives us a Betting Line that is usually out of whack. As Stated before, most bettors bet starting pitchers and these people also usually bet against throwers who are not performing well. The fact is, that is the best time to back a starter. The Second One is The Bounceback Hitter. This is along the same line as the previous one. Teams off ZERO Runs scored get good line value and over the last 6 years have turned a profit each and every year. This is one to look for throughout the season.

There is a reason why I have produced a profit betting baseball over the last 19 years and it is because I always put myself in the best possible winning position. If you do that, you will win also, and the Japanese People in your neighbohood will pay the price.

THE FOUR M'S OF MARCH MADNESS

2010-03-15T18:55:00Z

Ok, since the name of this piece is “The Four M’s” lets go ahead and get what those are out there so you won’t be skipping past all of the important stuff to see what they are. They are Momemtum, Motivation, Money, and Mo D. Now I know that Mo is not really a word and for that matter neither is D. But I was looking for a Cool Title so just humor me on this so that I can have 4 M’s. These M’s can and will give you a quick jumpstart on who is going to fair well over the next few weeks.

Momentum
This first one is kind of tricky because momentum does not necesarily mean a team that is coming into the Tourney winning a bunch of games, is going to be a good play. The fact is, often it can mean getting a better number because of this and betting against those teams because they are too overvalued. Oddsmakers are not stupid people, although we would like to think so, and as a handicapper I often do call them that. That is just simply a “Wanting to be cool Thing” going on with me so you have to overlook it. There are, however, some squads that do have a lot of momemtum coming in, and one’s that are peaking in their capabilities, but are not getting enough respect for that because their overall record for the year is not all that spiffy. These are the one’s you will want to find, and these are the one’s that you might will want to bet, if the number is a good one. The phrase “Under the Radar” comes to mind here.

Motivation
Some College Basketball Teams just want to win more than others. Finding those teams can be very good for your bankroll, but who are they? Why are they more motivated? While it is not a written rule, generally we have to have two things in place to have a motivated squad. We almost always have to have a group of Kids on the court that have been here before. It’s the Ole, been there, done that thing. But more importantly, it is teams that have a junior and senior laden roster. These guys are getting what might be their last chance to be the team cutting down the nets. In some cases, they have no real chance of doing that, but that does not mean that they will not give it the Ole College Try. These squads do not have to be the Big Boys of this Tournament, they can be the Winthrop’s, the Northern Iowa’s, the Cornell’s. These Guys are not going to go out without a fight, and in some cases they will be getting an inordinate amount of points from those Stupid Oddsmakers. Whoops, I said it again.

Money
Ok, here is another tricky one. While many might not agree with this statement I will throw it out there anyway. The NCAA Selection Committee wants to put the best teams on the court, but they also want the Tourney’s to make money. Including too many Big 10, Big East, and Big 12 squads in the group of 64 means that there will be high TV Revenue, high attendence, and more money. Oddsmakers know this too because these are not stupid people. (See Above) They know that we bettors as a whole, are going to bet these High Profile Teams and so they set lines that are maybe just a bit out of whack. That gives us some real bargains to work with, perhaps with those squads that are more motivated to win. You know, the junior and senior laden teams and the one’s that do what is written about below.

Mo D
No, this is not the name of a Famous Rapper. Well let me correct that. This might be the name of a Famous Rapper because I am not really up on the current one’s past MC Hammer. This Stands for More Defense. While overused a bit, it is a fair statement to make that Defense wins games. This is true in almost any sport but maybe more true in this tournament. Teams that allow less than 40% shooting are already well on their way to being competitive, especially in the Big Games, and let’s face it, all of these games are Big. You would be hardpressed to find any NCAA Champion that did not play Mo D than the rest of their opponents in these games. Mo D creates turnovers. Mo D creates fewer better quality shots by opponents. Mo D creates more fast break opportunities. The Simple fact is, Mo D allows for Mo O which gives teams Mo Memtum and therefore Mo Tivation late in games.

Mo Thoughts
The Tip of the Iceburg has been covered here but it is important to note that level of competition is also important. Not only who teams beat, but how often they played quality teams throughout the year and how they faired against them. Oddsmakers would like for you to believe that the Missouri Valley, CAA and other smaller groups of teams don’t play a good level of competition. They want you to buy into the fact that if they say Wisconsin is 10 points better than Wofford, then they are. These Oddsmaker Guys are not stupid. Have I said that yet?

MORE NHL FANS EQUALS MORE GOALS?

2010-03-05T13:59:00Z

Last night prior to going out for the evening, I was at my Livingroom Window gazing out at the Mighty Mississippi River and casually mentioned to my Significant Other that I had a Big Bet on an NHL Game. Without blinking an eye, she picked up the Television Remote and exclaimed, “Is that game on TV?” I was in total shock of course since she had not expressed any interest in the NHL ever. The Olympic Hockey had peaked her interest in the sport and she had become a fan almost overnight. We did not watch the game, and instead went out for some oysters and beer. That game was the Capitals/Lightning OVER the Total and it was an easy winner with 9 goals being scored.

But What does this Mean?
This means that there is a whole lot of interest in the NHL right now and the games following the Olympics have seen a lot of new faces in the stands. This always happens after the Big International Tourney and NHL League Officials are taking note. They want to keep these new faces coming to the games, they want higher TV Rankings, and one way to make sure they obtain this, is to make sure that the games are entertaining to the newcomers. How do they do that? That is simple. They Showcase the Talent in the League by having them Score a Lot of Goals. Sports Fans love to see scoring and that is true in every sport. The NHL is no different and low and behold we are seeing a lot of goals here in the early going following the Olympics.

Why Are We Seeing a Lot of Scoring?
Sometimes it pays to have good contacts when betting sports for a living and I happen to have a very good NHL Guy that gives me info from time to time. He is a very good source and most reliable. He tells me that over the weekend, NHL League Officials sent a note to all NHL Referees strictly enforcing holding and interference penalties as set forth in the rule book. The Note pretty much said that this has not been done as it should have been done this year and that they expect it to be done now. It does not take a Genius to know that more penaties mean three things. (1) More Power Plays. (2) Less Defensive Intensity. (3) More Scoring.

Let’s Look at the Results So Far
Prior to Last Night’s Action OVER in NHL Games have hit at 19-4-2 since the break. That is more than just a small abberation even on the small sample. Whether this trend continues remains to be seen but one thing is for sure. Oddsmakers might be slow to react since the NHL does not get anywhere near the volume of bets that other sports do. That is going to be especially true with the NBA coming down to crunch time and NCAA Touneys here upon us. So are these Odds that Oddsmakers are putting out going to continue to go Under the Radar. Certainly not. Vegas will, if not already, take note of this trend. However, they have not yet to the most degree. That might give us some good opportunities until this well runs dry and they start re-adjusting Totals upward.

Some Final Thoughts
This does not mean that we should bet all NHL Totals OVER without looking into the games further. This does mean that we should consider these changes when we do look at the games. Perhaps that Under Play you thought might be a good opportunity is not. Perhaps that Over Play you like, might be bumped upward. As a Professional Handicapper, I am always looking for an edge, whether that be longterm or shorterm. This might be a good shortime Edge for sure and already has been. Incidentally, the Capitals/Lightning game last night featured only the 11th time this year that we have seen a Posted Line at 6.5 Goals. With last nights win, OVER is now 11-0 in those games. Is that an Edge? I think so. It looks like we will be watching some NHL here at my house with the Peaked Interest that my mate has for it. I just hope that I am not zapped with any holding or interference penalties during the games. (smile)

CAN YOU MAKE A LIVING BETTING SPORTS?

2010-03-01T22:23:00Z

During my 20 Years of Running a Handicapping Service, I have talked to a lot of Bettors who have lost a lot of money and are searching for the answer to their problems. In almost every case, they did not have a plan of action, they were betting too many games, they were following too many handicappers, and they were using poor Money Management Practices. The fact is, in some cases, after they subscribed to me, and after I had a Nice Winning Month, they told me that they were going to have to quit for a while because they had lost that month overall and could not afford to continue. What? Nothing surprises me anymore and I know why these Bettors are never going to win substantial money, or any at all unless they change their Betting Behavior.

You Must Have a Betting Plan

Most Bettors haphazardly go from day to day without a plan for success and that is probably 80% of their downfall. They just don’t know what they are doing. They bet varying amounts of money per game, based on how they feel about that investment, and in many cases based on how much they have won, or lost, that week, or even that day. I wish I could count the emails that I recieve from people asking me to give them “ONE BIG GAME” because they HAVE TO WIN tonight, or they have won some money and want to “DOUBLE THEIR WINNINGS.” That does not work Folks. Those people are going to lose. They are going to go through life being miserable and in many cases, they are going to blame someone else for their problems. I can’t help most of these Bettors but I do try and in some cases I succeed. Betting sports is exactly the same as playing the Stock Market. You can’t Day Trade, you have to do the Longterm Investments, and the one’s that pay off everytime. You must also be willing to cut your losses and realize that everyday is not going to be a winning day

Following Hot Handicappers

How many times have I seen somebody in a forum say something like ”Hey I found a Guy that is Hot! He is 13-4 in his last 17!!” Big Freaking Deal. They then jump on this guy and he promply losses his ass over the next 20 to 30 plays. Everyone has Hot Streaks. Everyone has Cold streaks. That is the nature of this business. Seeking longterm winners is the key and in most cases, a minimum of 200 to 300 Plays tells you whether someone has the ability to continue to be a winner or not. Simply put, you have to do your homework. You have to search for those guys that can hit 54% or more for an extended period of time. There are not many that can, but there are some that do. Avoid Hot Streaks at all costs and you are well on your way to beating this game.

Managing Your Bankroll

I have already covered much of this in this segment and there are some really good Money Management Programs on this site. While there are many theories about how much to play per play, the general rule is 2% to 3% of your current Bankroll. However, as your Bankroll grows, you are allowed to bet more but you must set clear goals as to when you bet more. My Program gives you a step by step approach for doing this. You can find that Program by searching my other Blogs here. I have used my program for the last 9 years and I promise you that it works. If you can only afford to lose 5 Grand, you can’t be betting $500 per game. By playing 2% to 3%, $100 to $150, based on a $5000 Bankroll, you are going to weather the cold streaks, and you are going to prosper during the Hot Streaks. I always tell my more degenerative clients that if you have to have some money on other games that I don’t pick, play them for 1/2% of your Bankroll. That gives you some “Action” without doing much or any harm to your overall goal.

Reaping The Benefits of The Plan

My best suggestion is to find 2 to 3 Handicappers that have Longterm Winning Results. Ideally one’s that can each find 1 to 2 plays on a Daily Card. Play those games at 2% to 3% of current Bankroll. Follow sound Money Management Principles and have some fun playing much smaller amounts on games that you like. You will have much less stress knowing that you have a Winning Approach, you will make money, and in some cases, depending on the advice you are recieving, a lot of money. This is not an Advertisment about becoming a Greg Shaker Client There are plenty of solid handicappers out there, both paid and free. It is about getting your situation under control and becoming successful. I can safely say that I have helped 100’s of people find their way through the difficult process of converting how they invest, and if I can help you do the same, I am as close as your email. Can you make a Living Betting Sports? DAMN RIGHT YOU CAN.

HANDICAPPING OUR CHILDREN

2010-02-26T19:19:00Z

Handicapping Professional Sports and College Sports are very similar in many ways, but in some ways they are totally different and distinguishing between the two can be good for your bankroll. While I have not reached Senior Citizen Status just yet, I have been around the block a few times and I certainly have grown as an individual along the way. I still have a way to go before I grow up and of course I would like to keep it that way. However, there are certain things in my life that are much more stable now than when I was a young brash college athlete of 18 years old.

Distractions
When I was growing up, we did not have this fancy texting device that we have now. All we had was a home phone, and of course a CB Radio. Today’s kids have got it all, with texting, internet chat, and video games galore. And let’s not forget about those IPods. These are clearly distractions to everyday life and in fact they are everyday life. Young Girls today can also be a huge distraction to a young man trying to grow up, and although it is a nice distraction to have, they can deter one from doing and concentrating on things that are most important.

What Does This Mean?
It means that College Age Athletes have a lot more to deal with. They don’t come home everyday to the same routine, and in some cases, they don’t come home at all. Emotionally, they can be a Rollercoaster and Physically, they can be a disaster sometimes unless they are watched over carefully. They tend to wear everything on their sleeve and that makes them less predictable in how they will perform in a game situation. Or does it? I like to refer to college athletes as Unpredictably Predictable. That means that there are certain situations where we can most likely expect them to act accordingly. They simply have more highs and more lows and know when that is going to happen is paramount to betting success with College Sports.

Let’s Put This to Use
Last night the Kentucky Wildcats hosted a team that gave them their first loss of the season. They were flying high at the time of that first meeting, doing a lot of texting, playing a lot of video games, and getting plenty of “Comfort” from their girlfriends as the made their trip to Columbia, South Carolina. They were simply unfocused and certainly felt like they were unstoppable. As a 7 point favorite, they got their ass handed to them. Last night, they were focused in a Big Way, and they returned the favor. I have seen this scenerio time and time again and spotting this behavior gives you a great advantage. West Virginia for instance has had unfocused and focused behavior this year as well, most recently losing at UConn to a very focused Husky Squad. I can look at most every quality team’s record this year game for game and see letdowns, and also see moments of greatness. There are more and better opportunities to spot this behavior in College Sports because of the Highly Emotional and Highly Unstableness of those that play at these ages. Let’s always remember that going forward.

HANDICAPPING SERVICE 101 SEMINAR

2010-02-19T17:00:00Z

Being in this business for 20 years I feel that it is my duty to help others that are striving to make it in this very competitive market in which we are in. Contained in this article will be all the weapons you need to make you a Big Shot but you are going to have to change some things if you have not already. Nobody has to know that you are handicapping daily while sitting at the coffee table in your den whoofing down Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Nobody has to know that your Day Job as a UPS Delivery Guy is the reason why you release your plays late in the day, after the last delivery. Only tell them what they need to know and you are well on your way to Big Money.

Your Name
This is probably the most important aspect of being successful and if you don’t have the right name you are starting out on the wrong foot. Your actual name is probably boring and does not really mean anything. So, let’s get a better one. Italian names are the best because Italians are connected. You know what I mean. These guys have all the inside info and everyone knows that. Some of the best names have already been taken but still plenty of good one’s out there, like Rizzo, Lombardi, De Luca, Mancini, and Moretti. You don’t really have to be Italian but it does help to know a few Italian words. Your first name is even more important as it denotes something about you. One of the best is “Lefty” but once again you don’t really have to be lefthanded. However, it would be best that when in a public situation to pick up and eat your Little Debbie Snack Cakes with your lefthand. If that is not the way you want to go then I have some other ideas. The Word “Bookie” is always a good one. The Bookie Basher, Bookie Killer, Bookie Destroyer, Roll your Bookie, Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him, Force Feed Your Bookie with Little Debbie Snack Cakes. Please note that I am not sure if that last one will Google very well. However, I think you get the idea. The Best idea by far is to just be “Lefty Lombardi” of “Hold The Bookie Down and Tickle Him.” That should cover all of the bases.

Your Punctuation
This is so very important because it gives everything you do excitement and drives people to action. You must us Exclamation Points as often as possible. Multiple Exclamation Points are even better!!! Do you see how you gravitated to that last sentence. It works and it works big. Example: “I have a Nice Card tonight and one of those plays is a Big Game out West.” Wrong!! “Don’t Miss Tonight’s West Coast Bookie Destroyer!!!!” Now which pick are you going to buy? Some of the better Handicapping Services actually disable all forms of punctuation from their laptops so that the Exclamation Point is the only one they can use. You might want to check into that.

Your Picks
We have already covered some of this above but let’s put it to use. You can’t just pick games, you have to pick Bombs!! You have to have multiple Game of Years!! And you have to make sure your potential client knows that they are an idiot if they don’t buy your pick. Example: “Does a Freaking Nuclear Bomb have to go off on your Front Porch before you Realize that you need My West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!!” Nobody wants a Nuclear Bomb to go off on their front porch do they? Of course not. If they don’t buy that, then there is no hope for that potential client and time to churn him and move on. It is important to note that Churning Clients is no real big deal. There are always plenty of Suckers out there willing to buy from a Guy named Lefty who uses exclamation points. And there is no reason to just have one Game of Year. Daily is always better and at least weekly. NFC GOY. AFC GOY. Monday Nite GOY. West Coast GOY. Big Ten GOY. North of the Equator GOY. Surely you can come up with 365 of these throughout the year and don’t stop there. Games of the Decade are even better and Games of the Century are just flat out Money in the Bank. And please, don’t forget those Exclamation Points!!!

Miscellaneous Points
I could probably do a 3 Day Seminar on how to improve your productivity but I will just point out some other ideas to get your Handicapping Services on the right path. Make sure to get on those Pre-Printed Rotation Schedules that come out in early August. This is where you can promote all of your GOY’s as they come out in the fall. This way as your potential clients turn the page on October 23rd, they will see your smiling face holding your Little Debbie Snack Cake in your lefthand, telling everyone about that Nuclear Bomb and the Big West Coast Bookie Destroyer Game of Year Blowout!!! And for God’s Sake, make your Biggest Plays on the Biggest Games. Nobody wants to bet Elon College. They want to bet The Dallas Cowboys. You know, the one’s on TV. It is important to note here that once you have Locked in a Client, you need to continue to Sell him. Yeah sure, he thought he bought all of your picks but wait!! You have just recieved, from one of your Italian Connections, a BIG INSIDER PLAY. This is not part of the regular package but for an additional $29.95 you can get it. Your Client is not going to argue with you. Nobody argues with a guy named Lefty (Insert Italian Name).

Your Must Have a Staff
Ok, this is a No Brainer here. One guy cannot operate his handicapping service effectively without a staff. Everyone knows that. Never say “I have isolated a HUGE INSIDER BIG WEST COAST BOOKIE DESTROYER GAME OF THE DECADE BLOWOUT. Always use WE because WE denotes a staff. People like the fact that your office is a busy place with other Lefthanded Italians running around, making phone calls, securing Fixes and such.

I hope that I made this simple enough that even a 4 Year Old Child could understand and I promise you that if you put these things in motion, you are going to reap the benefits. Hey, why not get a 4 Year Old Child to read this. You can make him part of your staff!! And the best thing is, he will probably work for just a couple of Little Debbie Snacks a day. And you already have those right?

THE TOP 10 REASONS TO LIVE IN THE SOUTH

2009-06-26T13:33:00Z

Being from the South, I am very proud where I live and even though the particular area in which I live has extreme poverty, a high crime rate, a poor infrastructure, and extraordinarily high temperatures sometimes, (The High Today Expected to be right at 100) I would not trade where I live for anywhere else in the world. I have decided to tell you my Top 10 Reasons for living here. If you are from this region that we call "The South" feel free to add your own to the list.

______________________

Number 10: If ever having Car Problems while on the road, chances are 4
out of 5 Doors Knocked on have at least one Shade Tree Mechanic inside.

Number 9: Little, if any chance of being force fed Kale or Parsnips as a
child.

Number 8: Being at a party in Oxford Mississippi and hearing the Ole Miss
Co-ed Mating Call, " Oh yall, I am so drunk."

Number 7: When disposing of a body, if needed, chances of any dental
records to identify are very low.

Number 6: Knowing that you are almost always within 100 miles of the Best
Football and prettiest women in the world, an SEC Stadium.

Number 5: Always able to find people that agree with, and are willing to
talk about, why the Civil War was fixed.

Number 4: Polyester Pants are still in style and pretty darn cheap.

Number 3: Spotlighting Deer is overlooked by Law Enforcement in some
counties as long as you agree to use the Low Beam.

Number 2: Still some Bumper Stickers able to be seen that say something
like, "All you Tree Huggin' Liberal Bastards can just Freeze in the Dark."

And the Number 1 Best Reason to Live in the South....

Grits!!

YOU TOO CAN HAVE THE PERFECT WOMAN

2009-05-22T14:05:00Z

Let me just say that the title to this piece is a bit overstated as there are actually no Perfect Women that live on this Planet. However, there are some that come pretty darn close because they have the 4 Things that make them as perfect as they can be. Two of those things come naturally and although they can be developed over time, they either got it, or they do not. The other two are learned traits and they can be influenced by what we do, us men, that is.

You might be wondering already what a Professional Gambler is doing writing about this subject but you should wonder no more. Having this most important part of your personal life in order, will make you a better bettor and those that don't have it are destined to fail. There is an old saying that goes something like this. "Behind every good man, there is a good woman." We can tweak that to say something like, "Behind every successful gambler, there is a good woman."

Let's Look at these Four Things that make Women as Perfect as they can be...

1. Nice Mogambos
2. Sweet Britches
3. Willing to Share Toys
4. Good Housekeeping Skills

Let me first note that the Toys referenced in #3 are #1 and #2. It is sort of the "How Much is that Doggie in the Window" thing. If she is unwilling to share often, then it does not matter how much the Doggie is because justing looking is no fun at all. We can also note that Doggie's do cost money and in most cases, the better the Doggie, the more you have to pay for the Doggie. Having a Woman is nothing more than legalizied prostitution and the sooner we realize that, the better we can understand what makes her tick. The sooner we understand the what makes her tick, the sooner we can then train her to be a good Doggie.

I do want to make it clear with Thing #1 that often Bigger is Better but it does not always have to be that way. I have seen plenty of those Things and can attest to what I say. Perky is better than Floppy but of course Big and UnFloppy is the best. The Main thing is that she takes care of them and shares them with you.There are going to be a lot of you that will disagree with what I say above because it is the "Politically Correct" thing to do. Things like, "My Girl has a great smile, a wonderful sense of humor, cares for others, loves kids." But we know what you are really saying don't we? Those britches are not as sweet as you would like, right?

Now that we agree what makes a woman as perfect as she can be, we can move forward with a plan of action. You will notice that I have not covered Thing #4 yet because it is the one thing that most fail at. Case in point is my second wife. She had #1 and #2 covered to the Max and #3 was her absolute best. But Boy did she fail at number four. It was so bad that I would go weeks without wearing underwear, partly because of #1, #2, and #3 but mostly due to #4. You have to realize that when you are engaged in playing with her Toys, Good Housekeeping Skills are even more important as you tend to rifle through underwear at a high rate. This was and is why I developed my system of training women and since wife #2, it has been working to perfection. By the way, wife #2 proved in the end that she was a good housekeeper, as she reminded me at the divorce hearing that she was keeping the house. She still lives there now.

THE PLAN OF ACTION
There are two things of note here. Betting sports can be nerve racking at times and your woman has to realize that. She has to understand when the game is in the last two minutes, she is not to start a conversation about Uncle Jimmy's gall bladder operation, or whether or not we should get our youngest child braces. Some women just don't get it and they never will. If that is what you are experiencing, here is the best course of action. Send her to the Mall. Women love Malls. Yes, it is going to cost you some money. Remember Doggie's do. Luckily for us, most all major corporations are still controlled by us, men that is. That is why most malls schedule their biggest sales around large sporting events. They know we need help and they are there to help us. The New Spring Fashions come out during March Madness. The Christmas Shopping Season is right in the Middle of Football Season. It is physically impossible for any woman to spend less than 2 hours in the Mall. Once they get in their, their little heads start spinning, they must try on lot's of stuff, they must have a cookie or a pretzel. However, most sporting events last longer than 2 hours and so you must tell her to call you when she leaves the Mall. That will give you the chance to keep her occupied for a while longer....

Actual Conversation
You: "Hey Baby did you have fun shopping?"
Her: "Oh, I bought the cutest outfit, I can't wait for you to see it."
You: "Did you have a pretzel?"
Her: "Of course."
You: "Baby, I have been craving Hot Wings all day. Can you pick up some on your way home."
Her: Yes dear, anything for my sweetie."

The Last Thing you want is for her to show up during the last 2 Minutes of the Game when you are more apt to throw your half full can of beer at her pretty new Vase. You know, the one she bought at the Mall last week during the Bronco game. Of course sometimes you just can't keep her occupied and that is where the next course of action kicks in. Get her interested in the game you are watching by using "Woman Language" easily understood by these creatures. Saying things like, "Wow, look at the Butt on #22 for the Raiders," or "Can you believe that Penn State is having a White Out Game after Labor Day?" Doing this is likely going to lead to more Toy Playing, which keeps you happy, and gives you a more relaxed atmosphere for picking winning games.

Have you ever wondered as I, why Lions don't wear pants? It is because that even though they are The King of the Jungle, they can't get their lionesses to do the laundry. This is probably the one thing that women fail at the most. However, there is hope, and utilizing my extensive education in psychology, I have devised a way to have cleaned, ironed, and folded clothing in great abundance. It has to do with "Association Training" and I promise you it works. The next time your mate is bending over to get the socks out of the dryer,sneak up from behind and give her a treat. You know what I am talking about. Just put it right in The Toy. After a couple times of doing this, she will be a laundry maniac and you will often see her loading clothes and sneaking a peak behind her, hoping to see you. This same principle can be used with other forms of housekeeping. Just use your imagination.

It is so very important that your relationship does not clash with your need and want to pick winners. It can be a happy marriage but both of you have to work at it. If your woman is failing at these issues, I encourage you to try some of these proven techniques that have worked for me. I could go on and on with this subject but I have got to go get a good bottle of wine now. It's laundry Nite Tonight.

MONEY MANAGEMENT--KEY TO BETTING SUCCESS

2009-05-09T15:57:00Z

Money management is something often overlooked and also something that is vital in being successful at sports betting. In fact there are many good handicappers that can pick games at a high rate of return but they fail to actually pocket anything because they don't have clear program to do so. I am going to attempt to sway those of you that are floundering with this most important part of sports wagering. This is something that I posted at pregame.com a while back and thought it was blog-worthy.

BANKROLL
One must have a clearly defined bankroll. A good bankroll is defined as the amount that you have allocated and set aside toward your wagering and not just what you might have in an online book at this very moment. It should be an amount that you can comfortably lose without putting yourself in a bind or changing your lifestyle in a dramatic way. For the sake of this example I am going to pick a bankroll of $5000. Yours might be higher and yours might be lower.

BANKROLL UNIT BET
A bankroll unit bet is simply the amount of money you would wager per bet based on a percentage of your total bankroll. I recommend 1.5% per Unit based on my plays but on average my usual play would be 2 Units or 3%. I will also use that for this exercise. By limiting your average bet size to just 3%, you are in a position to weather any storms that will come your way. Your bankroll is going to flucuate much like the S&P on Wall Street. But the goal is to always see your money make an increase over a period time much like a quality stock will do. My Money Management Plan allows you to do that and also allows you to increase your wagers at safe intervals.

THE PLAN
The Plan is a very simple one. Start will 3% wagers and increase your wagers as your bankroll increases, but do it at safe 20% intervals. This will allow you to get well over and beyond any real possibility of going back to the previous level but will also increase your chances of pocketing more money as your funds grow. I had hoped to build a chart and I will but for now I am just getting the info up as I feel it is very important. Take note that because I am using 3% Bankroll Plays as an example, it would take 6.67 Units won (3% X 6.67 = 20%) to reach the next level. That works out to be about 1.55 Units per week if you set a goal of moving up each level monthly. (1.55 X 4.3 weeks) It is important to note that once you reach a level, you should keep your wagers at that level until you reach the next one, either up or down. Now, for the fun part. Let's see what results would be based on these facts....

BANKROLL              UNIT BET            UNITS WON
$5,000                          150                           6.67
$6,000                            180                         13.34
$7,200                            220                       20.01
$8,600                           260                       26.68
$10,300                          310                         33.35
$12,300                          370                         40.02
$14,700                          440                       46.69
$17,600                          530                        53.36
$21,100                          630                         60.03
$25,200                          760                     66.70
$30,200                          900                       73.37
$36,300                       1090                       80.04

RESULTS
As you can see, by winning 6.67 Units per month, in one year, your bankroll would increase from just $5000 to over $36,000, yet your overall risk would remain the same, just 3% per wager. By increasing your wagers at pre-determined points and keeping your wagers at a basically even keel, you will be more successful than you have ever been before. Of course, at some point you will want to stop increasing your wagers as you reach your own comfort level. That is when the real fun begins as you start dragging your money of your accounts. At this point, all you need to do is to make sure you are getting good advice on what to bet or have a plan yourself to accomplish that same goal. I have certainly reached my comfort level and you will too if you follow this program. I hope that you choose to do so.

THE 4 SEASONS OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

2009-05-08T19:47:00Z

Handicapping Baseball can be very taxing indeed and a lot of bettors will fall to the wayside before the season is over. Many already have and the next six weeks or so will prove to be costly to a good portion of of the Baseball Betting Community. It is the perception of most that lines get sharper during the summer months and to some extent that is correct. But is does make a difference in how you define Sharper and it does make a difference in how you react to what we are going to see. Vegas Oddsmakers generally combine two factors to determine what line they are going to post for baseball contests. The number 1 factor is the starting pitcher and by far that is the prImary one in determing who is going to be favored and by how much. The second factor is the strength of the teams competing and the venue at which they will play. They use these line determiners because they know that is how the majority of bettors decide how they are going to bet. Finding a way to shoot around these is the job of a handicapper and gaining the advantage in doing so is why it is imperative to look at the game as a whole and not just with the popular approach.

The Mid Relievers
There is a strong correlation between the strength of a team's Bullpen and how well they do both in the standings, and in the money made playing them. When I talk about the Pens, I am not talking about who has the best closer, although that does come into play. The average starting pitcher rarely gets past the sixth inning. The average closer rarely gets past 2/3 of an inning. The fact is, as the season progresses, the starting thrower becomes less and less important and from about May 20th until the end of the season, starters will average just under 2/3 of an inning less than previous games. That is based on the last 7 years and that is a misconception to many. On average we can expect the guy who throws the first pitch to last about 5.2 innings meaning 1 out short of 6. In addition, we can expect him to leave the game more times than not, with runners in scoring position and usually with less than 2 outs. That is why the mid-line throwers are so important. Here is some info from a selected year.

Top 6 Money Teams of 2006
Minnesota
Oakland
New York Mets
Detroit
Kansas City
San Diego

The Top 5 Bullpens of 2006
Minnesota
New York Mets
San Diego
Detroit
Oakland

These are listed in order as you can see, the Top 5 Bullpen's also comprised the Top 5 Money Teams. The only excpetion was KC who won some huge moneyline plays late in the year. Similar results can be found in previous years. So far this year, of the Top 5 Bullpens, 3 of those teams rank in the Top 5 Moneymakers, with KC at #2, Toronto at #3, and Boston at #5. At this time of the season it is easier to determine who has it, who does not, and who is going to have it. There are enough games to make reasonable betting decisions and managers have enough data to make good one's as well. In most cases, I would rather have a mediocre starter and a good Pen, than the opposite. That works out very well since that is the exact opposite of the way Vegas would like us to think. Certainly a great starting thrower and a good Pen also opens up good runline opps. As the Dog Days of Summer approach this reasoning is going to become more effective and more predicable. The best pitcher in the league can have a bad outing, the worst one can have a good one, bullpens generally remain fairly consistant.

The Mindset of Teams
We are still in a situation where all teams feel that they can compete for the playoffs and that is evidenced by the recent play of the Royals and Rangers. Even though it is obvious to most of us that this is not true, nobody is giving up yet and that does give us some good opps. Every team can still be a pain in the ass to another one. There are many ways to determine when a team is going to go on a run and recent play is one of those and probably the best way. However, deciding how to go about this is sometimes a liability to bettors because many are not working with the right kind of stats. I am going to have a separate article on this subject soon but for now let me just say that looking into stats is better than just taking them as they are presented. I personally throw out the best and worst game over a 7 game span for pitchers, and the best and worst game over a 10 game span for teams. Scoring 45 times over a 10 game span looks impressive but not when 15 were plated in one game. There are certain situations that never change including some throwers not being able to hold their own on the road. LAA's Eric Santana a few years ago is certainly one of those and there are many more.

Now Through the Allstar Break
As we come closer to June 1st, Managers are going to manage more. How many times this year have we seen starting pitchers stay in just a bit too long and cause their team to suffer a loss. That is not going to happen nearly as much as managers and pitching coaches will be quicker to jerk the jerk and they will be able to make better decisions based on their better conception of who can and who can't. That is going to lead to more UNDERS and that is going to lead to more closer games. That is specifically true with teams that have a good mid-line throwing squad and these squads are going be in the money more ties than not. Eventually Vegas will catch up with this fact and I am not saying that they don't already know this, what I am saying is that most bettors do not and they are not going to make their move until they need to. Sportsbooks have been raking money in over the last 7 days because bettors are not reacting to what is going on yet. We are entering the second season now and I will have more about the 3rd and 4th and what to expect coming soon..