Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
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During my 20 Years of Running a Handicapping Service, I have talked to a lot of Bettors who have lost a lot of money and are searching for the answer to their problems. In almost every case, they did not have a plan of action, they were betting too many games, they were following too many handicappers, and they were using poor Money Management Practices. The fact is, in some cases, after they subscribed to me, and after I had a Nice Winning Month, they told me that they were going to have to quit for a while because they had lost that month overall and could not afford to continue. What? Nothing surprises me anymore and I know why these Bettors are never going to win substantial money, or any at all unless they change their Betting Behavior.

Money by TW Collins.

You Must Have a Betting Plan
Most Bettors haphazardly go from day to day without a plan for success and that is probably 80% of their downfall. They just don’t know what they are doing. They bet varying amounts of money per game, based on how they feel about that investment, and in many cases based on how much they have won, or lost, that week, or even that day. I wish I could count the emails that I recieve from people asking me to give them “ONE BIG GAME” because they HAVE TO WIN tonight, or they have won some money and want to “DOUBLE THEIR WINNINGS.” That does not work Folks. Those people are going to lose. They are going to go through life being miserable and in many cases, they are going to blame someone else for their problems. I can’t help most of these Bettors but I do try and in some cases I succeed. Betting sports is exactly the same as playing the Stock Market. You can’t Day Trade, you have to do the Longterm Investments, and the one’s that pay off everytime. You must also be willing to cut your losses and realize that everyday is not going to be a winning day
Following Hot Handicappers
How many times have I seen somebody in a forum say something like ”Hey I found a Guy that is Hot! He is 13-4 in his last 17!!” Big Freaking Deal. They then jump on this guy and he promply losses his ass over the next 20 to 30 plays. Everyone has Hot Streaks. Everyone has Cold streaks. That is the nature of this business. Seeking longterm winners is the key and in most cases, a minimum of 200 to 300 Plays tells you whether someone has the ability to continue to be a winner or not. Simply put, you have to do your homework. You have to search for those guys that can hit 54% or more for an extended period of time. There are not many that can, but there are some that do. Avoid Hot Streaks at all costs and you are well on your way to beating this game.
Managing Your Bankroll
I have already covered much of this in this segment and there are some really good Money Management Programs on this site. While there are many theories about how much to play per play, the general rule is 2% to 3% of your current Bankroll. However, as your Bankroll grows, you are allowed to bet more but you must set clear goals as to when you bet more. My Program gives you a step by step approach for doing this. You can find that Program by searching my other Blogs here. I have used my program for the last 9 years and I promise you that it works. If you can only afford to lose 5 Grand, you can’t be betting $500 per game. By playing 2% to 3%, $100 to $150, based on a $5000 Bankroll, you are going to weather the cold streaks, and you are going to prosper during the Hot Streaks. I always tell my more degenerative clients that if you have to have some money on other games that I don’t pick, play them for 1/2% of your Bankroll. That gives you some “Action” without doing much or any harm to your overall goal.
Reaping The Benefits of The Plan
My best suggestion is to find 2 to 3 Handicappers that have Longterm Winning Results. Ideally one’s that can each find 1 to 2 plays on a Daily Card. Play those games at 2% to 3% of current Bankroll. Follow sound Money Management Principles and have some fun playing much smaller amounts on games that you like. You will have much less stress knowing that you have a Winning Approach, you will make money, and in some cases, depending on the advice you are recieving, a lot of money. This is not an Advertisment about becoming a Greg Shaker Client There are plenty of solid handicappers out there, both paid and free. It is about getting your situation under control and becoming successful. I can safely say that I have helped 100’s of people find their way through the difficult process of converting how they invest, and if I can help you do the same, I am as close as your email. Can you make a Living Betting Sports? DAMN RIGHT YOU CAN.
  • Fish, I understand your question but money management is not about winning in any particular sport. Winning is still about picking the right games or people that pick the right games. Playing 2% to 3% on each play consistantly is the only way to stay in the game based on varience..

    Your example for instance: Your entire year could also be determined by NFL if you wagered 5% per play and had a poor year...The Bottom Line--A Play is a Play is a Play regardless of the sport...

  • shaker,

    would you consider adjusting the size of your wagers based on the number of games played in a particular sport?  For example, there are twice as many MLB games as there are NBA games and ten times more than NFL games so if you wager every game the same amount or with the same unit system, you are likely to have your MLB season determine your overall year profitability or loss.  Adjusting the size seems like an especially good idea if one follows multiple cappers depending on the sport since it is unlikely every capper will have a down year in their respective sport.

  • Fish, I would never recommend 5% on ANY Play as the varience will get you sooner or later and I personally do not know any sharp bettors that would. In fact the best recommendation would be 2% but 3% is OK on a strong edge...

  • shaker,

    Regarding your money management system of 3% average wager and increase with each 20% of bankroll level.  Would your system work using 5% for each and every wager?  I know you said 3% is the average bet size and it allows you to weather the bad times, but if one is confident in their picks and wants to grow their bankroll faster and feels equally confident in all their plays, would it work?  I have heard 5% said before as an acceptable amount by other sharps.

  • Non-Traditional Betting would be Props, Halftimes, Team Totals, In-Game Betting, Middles, Value Betting..etc...

  • Shaker,

    What exactly do you mean when you say "A professional bettor makes a living doing a lot of Non Traditional Investing ?"  I know you said you will blog on this later, but can you give an example or snapshot?

  • thank u for getting back to me fast and for the great advice!

  • Scores30, I think that is covered in the article but probably not covered enough. Your Unit Bet would increase to $24 at $1200 and you would continue to bet the $24 until you moved up another 20% or until your bankroll slipped about down to $1000. So, yes you would continue to play $24 if your bankroll went downw to $1170..

  • Thanks for this post  GS. I get to handle my dough properly from now on.

  • i have a question about the money management system. I understand you recalculate every 20% ur bankroll increases or decreases. Lets say for easy math my bankroll is 1,000 and my unit size would be $20. Lets say i get my bankroll to $1220 which is an increase in 20%, hence my unit size is now $24. Lets say i lose a few bets and my bankroll is now $ i now use the unit size of $20 or 24?

  • Sami, first let me apologize for not looking at it sooner.

    It appears to be sound, more sound than most but I have never done any progressive system like you sent me and never will, so my knowledge is not that great concerning this..

    Perhaps others will have some thoughts better than mine and I would be interested to hear those thoughts.

  • Hey Greg... I know you've been super busy kicking the book's a** lately, plus going out of town, etc.... but did you get a chance to look at that progressive system I sent you? Your thoughts are appreciated.

  • great stuff as always greg ive been wagering for over 10 yrs and you couldnt be more right you just explained exactly how i approach ..with the money management and the 2 to 3 cappers GREAT STUFF>>and lets keep WINNING!!!

  • Clay, I assume this question was directed toward me. With a starting $200 Bankroll, a $144 Profit is very substantial over 200 Plays. I would absolutely NOT up the wagers to 5% or 7% because the varience is just too much to do so and you could be out of action almost before you got a chance to make some money...

  • Is 200 too little to use this system? I mean 3% of 200 is 6 dollars? at 56% over 200 games is around 144 profit...Is it even worth doing with this small of a bank roll or should I Bump it up to 5% or even 7%? this is a side project of mine to get into calculated betting....your thoughts are appreciated.