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2010 MLB Home Run Derby Odds Inside ((Who is Your Pick to Win))

2010-07-12T16:32:00Z

Who is your choice to win the Home Run Derby on Monday Night?? I have TWO SMALL ACTION WAGERS on David Ortiz +440 & Corey Hart +645 to win tonight--at (5Dimes Sportsbook) Who do you have winning?

Full List of HR Derby Participants (Lines from 5Dimes Sportsbook)

#101 Vernon Wells +1050

#103 David Ortiz +440

#105 Miguel Cabrera +270

#107 Matt Holliday +545

#109 Hanley Ramirez +1050

#111 Corey Hart +645

#113 Chris Young +1150

#115 Nick Swisher +650

#117 N.L. Player Wins HR Derby +146

#118 A.L. Player Wins HR Derby -166

BEST & WORST MLB BULLPENS Based on WHIP & ERA (June 3rd)

2010-06-03T19:03:00Z

TOP 8 MLB BULLPENS based on WHIP:

1) SAN DIEGO PADRES 1.04 WHIP

2) TAMPA BAY RAYS 1.15 WHIP

3) MINNESOTA TWINS 1.16 WHIP

4) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 1.16 WHIP

5) COLORADO ROCKIES 1.16 WHIP

6) BOSTON RED SOX 1.25 WHIP

7) DETROIT TIGERS 1.28 WHIP

8) ATLANTA BRAVES 1.29 WHIP

WORST 8 MLB BULLPENS based on WHIP:

1) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 1.80 WHIP

2) CLEVELAND INDIANS 1.74 WHIP

3) MILWAUKEE BREWERS 1.69 WHIP

4) L.A. ANGELS 1.69 WHIP

5) CINCINNATI REDS 1.56 WHIP

6) KANSAS CITY ROYALS 1.54 WHIP

7) BALTIMORE ORIOLES 1.53 WHIP

8) HOUSTON ASTROS 1.51 WHIP

TOP 8 TEAM BULLPEN (per .ERA)

1) DETROIT TIGERS 2.86 ERA

2) SAN DIEGO PADRES 2.87 ERA

3) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 2.93 ERA

4) COLORADO ROCKIES 2.99 ERA

5) MINNESOTA TWINS 3.13 ERA

6) TAMPA BAY RAYS 3.31 ERA

7) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 3.45 ERA

8) ATLANTA BRAVES 3.47 ERA

WORST 8 TEAM BULLPENS (per .ERA)

1) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 7.51 ERA

2) MILWAUKEE BREWERS 6.33 ERA

3) CLEVELAND INDIANS 5.34 ERA

4) CINCINNATI REDS 4.96 ERA

5) L.A. ANGELS 4.89 ERA

6) HOUSTON ASTROS 4.84 ERA

7) PITTSBURGH PIRATES 4.62 ERA

8) KANSAS CITY ROYALS 4.57 ERA

BEST & WORST MLB BULLPENS Based on WHIP & ERA (May 21)

2010-05-21T18:25:00Z

Just FYI---Here are this MLB Seasons TOP 8 and WORST 8 MLB Bullpens based on Team Bullpen WHIP (WHIP equals--WALKS + HITS per Inning)

TOP 8 MLB BULLPENS based on WHIP:

1) SAN DIEGO PADRES 1.04 WHIP

2) TAMPA BAY RAYS 1.13 WHIP

3) MINNESOTA TWINS 1.18 WHIP

4) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 1.23 WHIP

5) COLORADO ROCKIES 1.24 WHIP

6) DETROIT TIGERS 1.26 WHIP

7) ATLANTA BRAVES 1.27 WHIP

8) HOUSTON ASTROS 1.30 WHIP

WORST 8 MLB BULLPENS based on WHIP:

1) LOS ANGELES ANGELS 1.81 WHIP

2) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 1.79 WHIP

3) CLEVELAND INDIANS 1.67 WHIP

4) KANSAS CITY ROYALS 1.64 WHIP

5) MILWAUKEE BREWERS 1.59 WHIP

6) BALTIMORE ORIOLES 1.57 WHIP

7) SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS 1.51 WHIP

8) CINCINNATI REDS 1.50 WHIP

BEST & WORST MLB BULLPENS Based on WHIP (Through May 16)

2010-05-17T21:29:00Z

Just FYI---Here are this MLB Seasons TOP 8 and WORST 8 MLB Bullpens based on Team Bullpen WHIP (WHIP equals--WALKS + HITS per Inning)

TOP 8 MLB BULLPENS based on WHIP:

1) SAN DIEGO PADRES 0.99 WHIP

2) TAMPA BAY RAYS 1.11 WHIP

3) MINNESOTA TWINS 1.20 WHIP

4) COLORADO ROCKIES 1.23 WHIP

5) ST. LOUIS CARDINALS 1.25 WHIP

6) DETROIT TIGERS 1.26 WHIP

7) HOUSTON ASTROS 1.27 WHIP

8) NY YANKEES & ATLANTA BRAVES 1.28 WHIP

WORST 8 MLB BULLPENS based on WHIP:

1) LOS ANGELES ANGELS 1.81 WHIP

2) ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 1.78 WHIP

3) KANSAS CITY ROYALS 1.64 WHIP

4) MILWAUKEE BREWERS 1.61 WHIP

5) CLEVELAND INDIANS 1.60 WHIP

6) BALTIMORE ORIOLES 1.55 WHIP

7) CHICAGO CUBS 1.52 WHIP

8) PITTSBURGH PIRATES 1.47 WHIP

2009 MLB Home Run Derby Odds Inside ((Who is Your Pick to Win))

2009-07-13T15:53:00Z

Who is your choice to win the Home Run Derby on Monday Night?? I have TWO SMALL wagers on Albert Pujols +200 & Adrian Gonzalez +500 to win tonight. Who do you have winning?

STATE FARM HOME RUN DERBY ODDS

ODDS TO WIN
Mon 7/13 8:00PM (EST)

95001 ADRIAN GONZALEZ +500
95002 ALBERT PUJOLS +200
95003 BRANDON INGE +1000
95004 CARLOS PENA +600
95005 JOE MAUER +850
95006 NELSON CRUZ +800
95007 PRINCE FIELDER +350
95008 RYAN HOWARD +250

GoodFellas Yankees @ Red Sox Wed. (WINNER) + Thurs NBA GOW

2009-06-10T15:58:00Z

(The current line for this game is Red Sox -125 **opening line was -150** & the total is set at 11)

The Red Sox defeated their heated rivals (Yankees) last night for the 6th straight time last night, behind another great performance out of Josh Beckett, & they got an HR out of struggling (DH) David Ortiz as well, just his 3rd of the season. Last nights win put Boston in a tie for 1st place with the Yanks. Tonight, Tim Wakefield takes the ball for Boston, & Chien-Ming Wang gets the start for the Yankees. Wang returned from a month on the disabled list with weakness in his hips and delivered three solid relief outings before giving up five runs in 4 2-3 innings of an 8-6 win over Texas on Thursday. Wang said he felt OK on Thursday and was excited to get back into the rotation. Manager Joe Girardi also had good things to say about Wang's return. "I thought he pitched better than his numbers indicated," Girardi said. "I'm not making excuses. I was happy with what I saw". Wang is 6-5 with a 4.82 ERA in his career against the Red Sox. The Yankees have won five of his last six starts in the series. Wakefield bounced back from one of his worst starts of the season by holding Detroit to three runs over 6 2-3 innings of a 6-3 road victory Thursday. Wakefield has had trouble vs the Yanks at Fenway recently, as he's 0-5 with a 7.56 ERA over his last seven home starts against the Yankees. For the season, Wakefield is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts at Fenway Park. Both teams have their BEST arms in the bullpen rested for tonight's game. For the Yankees, Hughes, Aceves, Coke & Rivera, ALL did NOT pitch in last nights game, and for the Red Sox, Masterson, Saito, Okajima & Papelbon, did not pitch last night. Just something to consider strongly if you are looking to make a play on the total for this game tonight. Here are the Red Sox career numbers vs Wang; Pedroia (5-16 .313 3 2B's) Drew (4-17 .235 HR) Youk (8-27 .296 3 2B's) Ortiz (16-36 .444 4 2B's, 2 HR's) Lowell (5-24 .208 2B) Green (2-8 .250 2B) Kotsay (2-6 .333) Bay has never faced Wang & Ellsbury is 1-4. As for the Yankees vs Wakefield; Jeter (31-99 .313 2 2B's, 3B, 3 HR's) Damon (19-60 .317 3 2B's, 3B, 4 HR's) Texiera (6-29 .207 HR) A-Rod (21-76 .276 2B, 7 HR's) Cano (12-37 .324 3 2B's, 3B, 3 HR's) Melky (5-11 .455 2 2B's) Swisher (1-6 .167 2B) Pasada (14-63 .222 4 2B's, 3 HR's) Gardner (1-5 .200) Matsui (8-47 .170 2B, 2 HR's) Angel Berroa (6-12 .500 2B, 3B). The Yankees team bullpen ERA on the road is 4.90 & they have aw WHIP of 1.291. However, the Yanks do have their BEST 4 guys rested and available for tonights game, like I stated above; (Hughes, Aceves, Coke & Rivera). The Red Sox have a team bullpen ERA at home of 2.60 & they have a WHIP of 1.155. Boston also has their best arms rested & available for tonights game; (Masterson, Saito, Okajima & Papelbon). New York is 14-9 following a loss this season, & they are 2-4 as a dog of +100 to +125 this season. Boston is 19-14 following a win this season, & they are 9-4 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season.

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GoodFellas Philadelphia Phillies @ NY Mets Preview Tuesday, June 9th

2009-06-09T16:23:00Z

2009-05-27

(The Line for this game is currently NY Mets -160 & the total is 7.5)

Johan Santana takes the ball for the Mets tonight, & he looks to continue his dominance over the Phillies. Johan is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA in six starts against the Phillies since joining New York. He held them to two hits and struck out 10 in seven innings of a 1-0 win May 6. Johan has owned the top of the Phillies' lineup. Jimmy Rollins, Victarino and Chase Utley have combined to go 6 for 55 (.109) against Santana. Both Ryan Howard & Raul Ibanez have had great success vs Johan throughout their career: Howard (6-17 .353 2HR's) Ibanez (13-37 .351 2B, HR) & Werth who notoriously hammers left-handed pitching is (5-19 .263 2B, HR). The Phillies are playing great ball right now, winning 17 of 23 overall and 13 of 17 on the road since getting swept in a two-game set in Queens from May 6-7. Philly sends own very talented youngster J.A. Happ tonight. Happ has thrown 5 2-3 shutout innings in relief against the Mets this year, in 2 relief apperances. Since joining the Philly starting rotation, Happ is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA in three starts, he threw 7 shutout innings in a 5-1 win over San Diego on Wednesday, and he's holding opponents to a .181 batting average this year, very impressive numbers for the youngster. Only two Mets have 5 AB's or more vs Happ: David Wright (2-5 .400 HR) & Beltran (2-8 .250 HR). Santana's L/4 starts he has a ERA of 4.82 in 26 IP. The Mets are 7-5 vs left-handed starters this season, & 22-14 in night games, & their team bullpen numbers at home are very good, 2.49 ERA & a WHIP of 1.301. For Philly, they are 15-5 vs left-handed starters this season, & they are a MLB best 21-8 on the road. Philly is also 22-15 in night games, & their team bullpen numbers on the road are: 3.18 ERA & they have a WHIP of 1.210. J.A. Happ is 2-0 with a 1.16 ERA on the road this season. The Phillies are winners of 8 out of their L/10, while the Mets are 5-5 in their L/10, which included getting swept at Pittsburgh last week & they took 2 of 3 from the lowly Nationals over the weekend. The Mets are 17-9 at home this season, & Santana is 4-1 at home in 6 starts, with a ERA of 1.37, with a WHIP of 1.07 and a very impressive .193 batting average against. Johan has allowed just 3 HR's at home all year and has walked just 14, while striking out 51 in those 39.1 IP.

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GoodFellas Tampa Bay @ NY Yankees Preview Monday, June 8th

2009-06-08T17:05:00Z

06/08

4:05p

959

960

TAM A SONNANSTINE

NYY A PETTITTE (L)

The line for this game is (NY -160 & the total is set at 11)

Andy Pettitte takes the ball for the Yanks tonight, & he has struggled in the new stadium. Since recording a win in his first game at the new Yankee Stadium on April 21 - a 5-3 victory over Oakland, Pettitte has a 6.53 ERA in his last five home starts, allowing at least four runs in each. After exiting a May 29 win at Cleveland because of a strained lower back, Pettitte suffered the loss in Wednesday night's 4-2 defeat to visiting Texas as he issued a season-high six walks and yielded four runs over five innings. Pettitte is 15-4 with a 3.85 ERA in 26 career starts against the Rays but is 2-3 with a 4.95 ERA in the last seven starts vs the Rays. New York avoided their 4th straight loss at home to the Rays on Sunday, as they rallied late for a 4-3 win, to stop the losing streak to Tampa. The Rays hand the ball to Andy Sonnanstin Monday night, and he is 2-1 with a 5.00 ERA in six career starts against New York. Andy started at New York on May 6th, Sonnanstin pitched 7 1/3 IP, allowing 6 hits, 2 runs, 0 BB's, and 4 K's, as Tampa won the game 4-3, it was also the only home game that the Yankees have not homered in this season. Several Yanks struggle career wise vs Sonnanstin: Melky (1-8 .125) Cano (2-14 .143 HR) Posada (1-10 .100) Swisher (3-17 .176) Texiera (1-6 .167). These 4 Yanks have had success vs Sonnanstin over their career: Damon (5-18 .278 HR) Jeter (6-18 .333 2B, 3B) A-Rod (4-11 .364 HR) Matsui (5-13 .385 2 2B, 2HR's). For the Rays off Pettitte, here is how they have faired during their career: Aybar (1-11 .091) Longoria (2-11 .182 2B, HR) Novarro (4-15 .267) Upton (6-21 .286 2 2B's) Crawford (9-33 .273 2B) Pena (11-33 .333 2 3B's, 2HR's) Kapler (6-20 .300 2B) Zobrist (3-9 .333 HR). Andy Sonnanstin is 1-5 with a ERA of 9.00 & a WHIP of 1.909 on the road this season, & Pettitte is 2-1 with a ERA of 5.78 & a WHIP of 1.741 at home this season. Tampa Bay is 8-13 vs left-handed starters this season & their bullpen team ERA on the road is 4.17 with a WHIP of 1.329. The Yankees are 22-17 vs right-handed starters this season, & their bullpen team ERA at home this year is 4.78 with a WHIP of 1.476.

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GoodFellas Angels @ Tigers FREE Premium Play June 5th (+155 WINNER)

2009-06-05T18:18:00Z

2009-05-30

06/05

4:05p

917

918

LAA E SANTANA

DET J VERLANDER

#917 Angels +155 (1*) (BetUs)

Justin Verlander tries to win his seventh straight decision and stop a three-game Detroit losing streak as the Tigers take on the Angels at Comerica Park on Friday night. The Angels tagged Verlander for 7 runs and 9 hits, in just 5 IP back in late April, & for his career Verlander is (0-2) with a 6.08 ERA in 4 starts vs the Angels. Since that game he got rocked by the Angels in late April, Verlander is 6-0 with a 1.30 ERA in seven starts, striking out 65 in 48 1-3 innings. Very impressive numbers indeed, & I have backed him on a few occasions during this stretch, but tonihgt I feel confident in going against him, vs this Angels team, he has struggled against. The Angels send out Ervin Santana tonight, & he has been terrible his L/2 starts, & this will keep almost everyone from backing him & the Angels tonight. However, Santana won all three of his starts against the Tigers last year with a 2.38 ERA. That past success vs Detroit, should give Ervin some much needed confidence going into tonights game, & the Angles have had great success vs Verlander in the past: (Abreu 4-9 .444 1 HR) (Vladdy 5-9 .556 1 2B) (Hunter 7-23 .304 2 2B's 1 3B) (Izturis 3-9 .333) (Mathews Jr. 4-8 .500 1 2B 1 3B) Chone Figgins has struggled vs Veralnder (1-11 .091) but as a whole, this group of Angels excels off JV, & thats a mental edge for the Angels tonight. Clearly, this will not be a popular play tonight, & thats just fine with me. I see some definte value with this play tonight, & Detroit slugger Miguel Cabrera could miss this game due to a hamstring injury, that forced him to leave last night's game in the 2nd inning. Curtis Granderson is (4-20 .200) career vs Santana & 3B Brandon Inge is just (3-19 .158). The Angels are 11-4 their L/15 vs Detroit & I really think the Angels are about to get it going as they are finally a healthy ballclub. Detroit has lost 5 straight at home & the Angels have won 7 of their L/10 on the road. I think we really have a live dog here tonight with the Angels & I will play them for (1*).

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GoodFellas Dodgers @ Cubs Preview Friday, May 29, 2009 + OFFER

2009-05-29T16:11:00Z

The Dodgers look for their first six-game road winning streak in more than two years Friday when they take on the Cubs at Wrigley. Chicago, which has been held to two runs or fewer in seven of 10 games, had runners on first and second with no outs in the eighth and the bases loaded with one out in the ninth, but failed to score. Ted Lilly gets the ball for the Cubbies & has a 5.40 ERA in losing his last two starts after posting a 2.66 ERA in winning his first three May outings. On Sunday, he allowed five runs and eight hits in 6 1-3 innings of a 7-2 defeat at San Diego. The left-hander, who hasn't lost three consecutive starts since May 31-June 10, 2006 while with Toronto, is 3-1 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts at Wrigley Field this year. Lilly hasn't faced Los Angeles since giving up two runs in 6 2-3 innings of an 8-2 victory on Sept. 5, 2007. He's 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA in three career starts versus the Dodgers. For the Dodgers, they give the ball to Chad Billingsley, who surrendered season-highs of five runs and nine hits in six innings of Sunday's 10-7 loss to the Angels. Billingsley has yet to lose on the road, going 2-0 with a 1.63 ERA in four starts as Los Angeles has won each time. The Dodgers are 11-3 vs left-handed starters this season & they are 10-4 in DAY games. The Cubbies are 19-19 vs right handed starters and are 11-9 in DAY games this year. The Cubbies bullpen has a 4.36 ERA & WHIP of 1.485 at HOME, & thre Dodgers have a bullpen ERA of 4.03 & WHIP of 1.391 on the ROAD this season. The Cubs have just TWO players who have 5 AB's or more vs Billingsley; Soriano (2-8 .250) & D. Lee (1-6 .167). The Dodgers have four players with 5 AB's or more vs Lilly; Pierre (4-9 .444) Furcal (1-8 .125) Loretta (6-21 .286 2 HR's) & Blake (4-21 .191 HR). The current line for this game is anywhere from the Cubs -105 to the LA Dodgers -115 (depending on which book you have) & the total is set at 8. I am personally PASSING on this game, but I do have a slight lean to the Dodgers here today.

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GoodFellas Astros @ Reds Preview Tuesday, May 26th, 2009 + OFFER

2009-05-26T15:01:00Z

Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10pm ET

The Houston Astros are 24-6 when Oswalt (1-2, 4.47 ERA) pitches against the Reds and 12-2 when he starts in Cincinnati. He carries a lifetime 23-1 record versus the Reds with a 2.35 ERA. Roy is 8-0 in 10 starts against them since losing at Cincinnati on April 28, 2006. The only two games he didn't win in that span came this season, though Oswalt was outstanding as he gave up one run over 13 innings. Oswalt comes into Tuesday having allowed at least three runs in four straight starts, failing to last seven innings in any of them. Micha Owings (3-5, 4.70) will try to help Cincinnati win a season-best three in a row for the fourth time and end a personal two-game skid. Owings was shelled for five runs in three innings Thursday night in a 12-5 home loss to Philadelphia. His only start against Houston came May 24, 2007, when he recorded his first career complete game in his seventh major league start - a 9-1 victory for Arizona. The UNDER is 11-3 the L/14 times these teams have met & the UNDER is 20-7 in Oswalt's L/27 road starts. The Reds bullpen their L/3 games has a ERA of 3.81 & WHIP of 1.23, while the Astros bully has a ERA of 5.86 & WHIP of 1.70. Several CURRENT Reds have good career numbers off Oswalt: Alex Gonzalez (9-21 2 HR;s .429) Brandon Phillips (9-29 .310) Joey Votto (5-17 .294) Jay Bruce (5-18 .278) Laynce Nix (3-7 HR .429) Ramon Hernandez (2-6 .333). The only player on the Astros with 5 AB's or more vs Owings is 3B Geoff Blum (1-6 .167). Currently the line is anywhere from Houston -125 to -135 and the total is set at 8.5.

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GoodFellas (Angels @ Mariners) Preview Thursday, May 21, 2009

2009-05-21T14:29:00Z

The Angels give the ball to Joe Saunders tonight, who is coming off his worst start of the season, as he was tagged for a season-high seven runs and eight hits. including three homers. in 5 1-3 innings of Friday's 10-8 loss at Texas. His ERA climbed nearly a full point. jumping from 2.66 to 3.59. Like most pitchers, Joe has struggled big time while pitching at Texas, as he is 0-4 with a 10.29 ERA in four starts at Texas, but he's 20-3 with a 2.72 ERA in 28 starts as a visitor to other ballparks. He has posted a 1.86 ERA in winning his last three starts in Seattle, and allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings of a 5-1 victory at Safeco Field on April 16. In five starts against the Mariners since the start of last season, Saunders is 4-0 with a 2.88 ERA. Joe has been outstanding & the backbone of the injury riddles Angels rotation this season, as they loss their young stud Adenhart to a untimley death early on this season, & both Lackey & Santana have just recently joined the roation, coming back from injury. Seattle gives the ball to Erik Bedard, who missed his last start due to a tight right hamstring and manager Don Wakamatsu said he'd likely be limited to 90-to-100 pitches. In Bedard's last start at Minnesota on May 10, the left-hander allowed two runs, five hits and a season-high five walks in a season-low 4 2-3 innings of a 5-3 victory. He threw a season-high 110 pitches. Angels OF Bobby Abreu left Wednesday's game with a sprained left big toe. Manager Mike Scioscia said Abreu will miss a couple of days. Bedard limited the Angels to 5 hits, 0 BB, 6 K's & 3 runs (2 earned) in a win on Apr, 24. Despite the recent troubles of Mariner reliever Bandon Morrow, Seattle's bullpen has been very good this season, & their bullpen has a home ERA of 2.45 & a 1.47 WHIP. The Angels on the other hand, have had severe trouble with their bullpen this season, especially on the road, as they are sporting a 6.83 ERA & a WHIP of 1.57. Here are some career numbers for some key players vs the starting pitchers for tonights game: For the Angels vs Bedard, Figgins (3-16 .188), Mathews (4-17 .235) Hunter (9-23 .391) Rivera (2-7 .286) Kendrick & Napoli (2-6 .333) & Abreu (5-26 .192) who is mot likely OUT tonight anyways. For the Mariners vs Saunders; Ichiro (5-25 .200) Lopez (4-22 .182) Beltre (6-19 .316) Sweeney (1-7 .143) Balentien (1-9 .111) Johjima (0-6 .000). Seattle is 8-3 vs left-handed starters this season & they are 3-0 after shutting a team out. I lean to the Mariners tonight, but I can't make a play for two reasons: Bedard will be on a pitch count of 90 tonight according to the Mariners manager & I don't know how healthy Bedard really is & these two factors make this game a pass for me.

The line & total for this game are as follows:

Seattle -115/Angels -105 (total of 7.5)

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Good Read on MLB Totals so Far this Season

2009-05-19T04:38:00Z

I found this today and thought it was an interesting read & I wanted to share it with the Forums.......

Today let's focus on developments with Over/Unders in the bases.

You've probably noticed that it's been a high scoring year. Several teams are trending Over thus far. Hardly anyone is trending Under. I'll go through things on a team-by-team basis in a minute. First, here are some reasons that we may be seeing so many Overs this season thus far:

*The weather was warmer this past April than it was in 2008. You'll recall that very cold temperatures really condensed scoring last season. Hitting weather was better everywhere, so the ball started carrying from the first day onward.

*Many ace caliber starting pitchers were either on the Disabled List at the start of the season, or were there after a couple of starts. I don't recall ever seeing THIS many big name guys on the sidelines for so long. Aces are hard to come by. Their replacements aren't nearly as good. If you're taking out a lot of aces and replacing them with borderline guys...scoring is going to go up.

*The fact that Manny Ramirez flunked a drug test suggests that some players are still trying to find ways to bend the rules about chemical assistance. A lot of guys took bit hits to their stats last year. They weren't going to just sit idly by and lose their reputation (and money). I wouldn't be surprised if some new ways to cheat the system have been devised by now. Hey, it's human nature. These guys are competitive...and have already established that they'll cheat to get ahead. I'm not law enforcement. I'm an oddsmaker and I have to take all possibilities into account! As a fan I hope players aren't cheating. Scoring and power numbers are up though, aren't they?

*Some conspiracy theorists have talked about umpire's squeezing the strike zone, juiced balls, corked bats, and all the other stuff you hear about when scoring is up. I'm skeptical about these things because I believe the weather and the pitching injuries would account for what we've seen. But, you never know. Some bats have been found to be corked. And, the league does prefer long high scoring games to short pitcher's duels when it comes to marketing their product and selling beer.

Okay, let's go team-by-team so you can see how pervasive the tendency toward Overs has been. It's not like ALL games are going Over by any means. But, there's been enough of an uptick to notice...and it's one that hasn't been fully reflected in the lines or everyone would be near 50/50 in results.

BIGGEST OVER TEAMS (pushes excluded)
Philadelphia: 21-12
Boston: 21-13
Cleveland: 23-15
Baltimore: 22-15
Toronto: 23-17
Washington: 20-14
Colorado: 20-14
NY Yankees: 20-15
NY Mets: 19-14
Chicago Cubs: 19-14
LA Dodgers: 19-14
Florida: 21-17
Oakland: 19-15

That's about half the league who are three games over .500 or more with Overs. And, it's about a third who are at least five games over .500. This is what I mean about seeing a sportwide tendency. We're not talking about a couple of stadiums here and there...or just warm weather in a certain part of the country. That list represents the Northeast, the Midwest, the Rocky Mountains, and the Far West. It represents outdoor stadiums and domes. It represents both leagues. It represents good teams and bad teams. Scoring is UP this year and the Nevada lines aren't fully reflecting it.

Am I suggesting that all of these teams will keep shading toward the Over? I wouldn't go that far. Lines do catch up eventually. And, all sorts of factor could come into play that would signal a reversal. Some teams are about to get their top pitchers back. The Dodgers will be without Manny Ramirez for several more weeks. You have to go on a team-by-team basis with something like this. Just try to do the work so you know the team tendencies!

NEUTRAL TEAMS
Tampa Bay: 20-17
San Francisco: 17-14
Pittsburgh: 19-17
Seattle: 19-18
LA Angels: 18-17
San Diego: 18-17
St. Louis: 18-17
Minnesota: 18-18
Cincinnati: 18-18
Detroit: 17-17
Texas: 17-18
Milwaukee: 18-19
Kansas City: 18-20
Chicago White Sox: 17-19
Atlanta: 16-19

This is a pretty good sized hunk of teams within a few games of .500. So, it's not like the market prices are WAY out of whack. They've just been shaded too low. There are still a lot of teams on the money. Maybe it's about a third of the league when you'd expect something greater than half the league.

UNDER TEAMS
Arizona: 15-20
Houston: 14-20

That's a short list. ONLY TWO TEAMS OUT OF 30 HAVE A RATIO OF -3 OR HIGHER! We're almost a fourth of the way through the season...having finished off six weeks of baseball...and really only TWO teams in all of baseball are showing one-sided Under tendencies!

*Arizona has a horrible offense this year. Because they play their home games in a great hitter's park (Arizona is basically the Texas of the National League in terms of ballpark effects), the numbers there have to be relatively high. Arizona isn't scoring enough to get there.

*Houston's offense has also struggled. This is a team that plays in a bandbox park, and has a tradition of putting up runs. Oddsmakers and the public have been slow to adjust to the 2009 roster.

Go back and look at the first listing to see how many teams are at last four games over .500 with Overs. It's a lot more than TWO! And we have some seven's, eight's and nine's on the high end too. This is clearly a sport-wide phenomenon. And, Sunday's games went 9-4 to the Over...so it's not like we're talking about old news that isn't relevant any more.

And, the weather isn't going to get cooler in June, July, and August! Should you just keep betting all the Overs and hoping things work out for you? I'd advise against that for a few reasons:

*Many of the aces are coming back soon, or eventually. That right there will knock some of the air out of opposing offenses.

*The lines are adjusting. If the games are high scoring, but the Nevada lines are high, then there's no edge. You only have value if the market prices aren't reflecting reality. Pay close attention to this to see if the numbers start to catch up. And, remember that the weather IS going to get hotter...so they have to rise for awhile.

*We may start having more injuries to offensive players. It seems like pitchers have taken the brunt of bad injury luck early on. You just never know with injuries. More guys are developing the hip problem what AROD had (hmm, wonder why that is?). If the ace pitchers come back just as sluggers start to hit the DL, we may even have a clean reversal.

*Pennant race baseball is prone to lead to Unders as teams start giving more importance to each game. We may be in store for some intense pennant races in multiple divisions this year. That's something to look for in the second half of the season if not right away.

GoodFellas NBA Notes Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

2009-03-25T16:11:00Z

Miami @ Indiana

-This is the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, as Miami won at Miami109-100 as 5.5 pt favs back on Nov. 22nd & Indy won at Indy 114-103 as 4.5 pt favs on Jan. 30th-

-Miami has won 2 straight games & are coming off a 12 pt home win over Memphis on Monday & the Heat are 7-3 ATS L/10 games as a road dog of.5 to 4.5-

-Indiana is 2-5 SU & 1-6 ATS their L/7 games, but they are coming off a 108-83 blowout win at Charlotte in their last game on Saturday-

-Indiana is 1-4 ATS L/5 as a favorite & they are 0-4 ATS L/4 vs a team with a winning SU record (3 of those 4 losses came at home)-

San Antonio @ Atlanta

-San Antonio beat Atlanta in the teams only meeting this season, 95-89 as 6.5 pt favs back on Dec. 10th, so Atlanta will be looking for revenge tonight-

-San Antonio is playing their 3rd game in 4 days tonight, as they are coming off a 1 pt home win over Golden St. last night & the Spurs are 2-5 ATS L/7 games following a SU win-

-San Antonio is 34 SU & 1-6 ATS L/7 games & the Spurs are 2-6 ATS L/8 games vs a team with winning SU record & all-star Tim Duncan's minutes will be limited again tonight, if he does indeed play-

-Atlanta is coming off a 12 pt home win vs Minnesota on Monday & the Hawks are now 8-1 SU & 8-0-1 ATS L/9 home games & they hold a 3.5 game lead over the Heat for that very important #4 seed in the Eastern Conference-

-Atlanta is 6-0-1 ATS L/7 games vs the Western Conference (which include: Dallas, Portland, New Orleans & Utah) & the Hawks are also 7-1 ATS L/8 home games vs a team with a road win% of .600 or higher-

Boston @ Orlando

-This is the 3rd meeting between these clubs this season, as Boston won at Orlando 90-80 as 4.5 pt dogs on Jan. 22nd & Orlando won at Boston 86-79 as 2 pt dogs on March 8th. Boston was without both KG & Rondo in that game-

-These teams are tied in the loss column with 18 losses in the battle for the #2 seed & home court advantage in round 2 of the playoffs, but Boston has 2 more games played & 2 more wins then Orlando does, to hold the 1 game lead over Orlando going into tonight-

-Orlando is 8-2-1 ATS L/11 home games vs a team with a road win% of .600 or higher & the Magic are also 5-16 ATS L/21 games as a home favorite of .5 to 4.5-

-Boston is 7-3 ATS L/10 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher & the underdog is 6-2 ATS L/8 games between these two teams-

Golden St. @ Dallas

-This is the 3rd meeting between these teams this season, as Dallas won at Dallas 117-93 as 7 pt favs back on Jan. 28th & Golden St. won at Golden St. 119-110 as 1.5 pt home dogs 12 days ago, so Dallas should be very up to avenge that loss to Nellie & his Warriors tonight-

-Golden St. is playing their 3rd road game in 4 nights tonight & they are coming off a tough 1 pt loss at San Antonio last night & the Warriors are 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS their L/4 games & tonight is a very tough spot for the Warriors tonight-

-Dallas has not played since their 94-92 road win at Indiana on Friday night & the Mavs have just a 3 game lead over the Suns for that last playoff spot in the Western Conference with 11 games left to play in the regular season-

-Dallas is 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS their L/8 home games & they are 5-1 ATS L/6 home games vs a team with a road win% of .400 or lower-

Utah @ Phoenix

-These teams have split 2 meetings this season, as Utah won at Utah 109-97 as 2 pt favs back on Nov. 17th & Phoenix won at Phoenix 106-104 as 7.5 pt favs back on Dec. 6th, & Utah is 3-2 SU & 5-0 ATS L/5 games vs Phoenix-

-Utah is coming off a 99-86 home win over Houston last night & Utah is just 2-6 ATS L/8 games with zero days of rest. Utah is also 1-8 ATS L/9 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher-

-Phoenix is on a 5 game winning streak & are coming off a 3 pt home win over Denver on Monday, however the Sus other wins during this winning streak include celler dwellers (Thunder, Wizards, & the Warriors)-

-Phoenix is 0-4 ATS L/4 games vs a team with a win% of .600 or higher & the Suns are 1-5 ATS L/6 games as a home favorite of .5 to 4.5-

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GoodFellas NBA Notes Tuesday, March 17th, 2009

2009-03-17T15:27:00Z

Orlando @ Cleveland

-Orlando beat Cleveland at Orlando 99-88 as 5 pt favs back on Jan. 29th & Orlando is 3-0 SU & ATS L/3 games vs Cleveland & the Magic trail the Cavs by 4 games for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference-

-Orlando is 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS their L/8 games & they are coming off a 18 pt home blowout win over the Jazz on Sunday & Orlando is 6-2 ATS L/8 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher-

-Cleveland is 9-1 SU & 5-5 ATS their L/10 games & they are coming off a 5 pt home win over New York on Sunday & Cleveland is 6-1 ATS L/7 home games vs a team with a road win% of .600 or higher & the Cavs are 1-4 ATS their L/5 games following a SU win-

Boston @ Chicago

-Boston has blown out the Bulls twice this year, both at Boston, they won 96-80 as 10 pt favs back on Oct. 31st & they won 126-108 as 12 pt favs back on Dec. 19th, so Chicago has in-season double revenge going tonight-

-Boston is 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS L/4 games & they are coming off a 9 pt loss at Milwaukee on Sunday & the Celtics are now 1-4 ATS their L/5 road games, but Boston is 7-0 SU & ATS L/7 games vs Chicago-

-Chicago is coming off a 18 pt home win over New Orleans on Saturday night & Chicago is tied with the Bucks for the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race, with several teams breathing down their neck for that last playoff spot-

-Chicago is 4-0 ATS L/4 home games vs a team with a winning SU record & the Bulls are also 4-1 ATS thier L/5 games as a home underdog-

Detroit @ Dallas

-Dallas beat Detroit 112-91 at Detroit as 3.5 pt dogs back on Jan. 23rd & Dallas returns home tonight after just completing a 2-2 SU & ATS west coast road trip, which concluded with a 7 pt loss at LA Lakers on ABC on Sunday-

-Detroit is 2-3 SU & ATS their L/5 games & they are coming off a 5 pt home loss to the lowly Grizzlies on Sunday & the Pistons are 4-0 ATS L/4 games following a SU loss-

-Detroit is 4-1 ATS L/5 road games & Detroit is also 13-6 ATS L/19 road games vs a team with a home win% of .600 or higher-

-Dallas is 2-8 ATS L/10 games following a ATS win & the Mavs are 1-4 ATS L/5 games vs a team with a winning road record-

Philadelphia @ LA Lakers

-LA beat Philly at Philly 114-102 as 9 pt road favs back on Dec. 3rd & LA is 5-1 SU & ATS L/6 games vs Philly-

-Philly is 4-1 SU their L/5 games & they just completed a 3 game sweep at home, with wins over Toronto, Chicago & Miami & tonight is Philly's 1st game of a brutal 5 game, 7 day West Coast road trip-

-LA Lakers are coming off a 7 pt home win over Dallas on Sunday, but the Lakers are just 1-5 ATS L/6 games as a favorite, but the Lakers are 5-0 ATS their L/5 games vs the Eastern Conference-

-Philly is 1-4 ATS L/5 games vs a team with a winning SU record & Philly is also 2-5 ATS L/7 road games & they are 0-5 ATS L/5 games vs the Western Conference-

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