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Holiday Bowl *Bowl GOY* (((Oregon vs Oklahoma St.))) $Outright Winner$

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Goodfella is a Oregon native, and is a trusted and well respected member of the pregame community. He has consistently posted winners and shown profit in his 2 years at pregame. Goodfella has worked extremely hard building a bankroll and is a tireless worker in the industry. He studied the market as much as possible until he finally got the confidence to quit what he was doing, and began betting as a professional. Goodfella has been betting on sports since he was 15 years old and has always dreamed of being able to make his living as a professional sports bettor. He is a proven winner who has made the strides and done the work necessary to become a long term sports bettor. His goals are to continue improving his game and to eventually move to Vegas, where it would be more convenient and helpful by being surrounded in a city that eats, sleeps, and drinks sports betting, by meeting and learning from other sharp bettors who make their living betting on sports as well.

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Holiday Bowl *Bowl GOY* (((Oregon vs Oklahoma St.))) $Outright Winner$

Fri, Dec 19 2008 12:13 PM
  • Comments 39

 Duck takes a ride

 
Oregon comes into the Holiday Bowl as the #1 rushing team in CFB over the last month of the season. The dual headed monster that is Jeremiah Johnson & LeGarrette Blount have a combined 2,010 yds rushing, with a yard per carry avg of a staggering 7.0 & they have combined for 28 rushing TD's. Very impressive numbers, all of them. With the emergence of Masoli & the improved Ducks passing game, which was just averaging 77 ypg passing through their 1st 5 games, has now lifted that to 200 ypg through the air. This big improvement has directly related to the Ducks #1 rush attack in the nation over the last 3rd of the season. Oregon as a team avg's 6.88 yards per rush, while Okie St. who's led by stud RBKendall Hunter & dual threat QB Zac Robinson average a nice 5.8 yards per rush. That is a full yard more per rush for the Ducks. In Oregon's last 4 games, they are ranked 11th in the nation vs the run & they are ranked 3rd in the Pac-10 vs the run on the season. Oregon holds opponets to 3.87 yards per carry on the ground, while Okie St. yields 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Once again, Oregon has the edge in the run game department. Okie St. averages 9.35 yard per play, while Oregon yields just 5.71 yards per play on "D". Oregon averages 6.37 yards per play, while Okie St. yields 6.36 yards per play on "D". Okie St. will have the edge in the passing game with Zac Robinson to stud Dez Bryant who has 1,313 yds & 18 TD's on the season. This is the only area I see Okie St. having a edge over Oregon in. Oregon has the edge over Okie St. in both running the ball & stopping the run. Both these teams average right at 42 ppg & I think this game sees some serious scoring. Here is something of note to look at regarding Okie St. this season however: Okie St. vs the Big 12's top 4 teams (Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech) Okie St. averaged just 28.3 ppg & amassed a average of 409 ypg. Now, these 4 teams I noted above, averaged 42 ppg & 536 ypg vs them & this is worth mentioning IMO. Oregon has TWO intangibles going for them in this game, that cannot be overlooked IMO. The first one is the Chip Kelly factor (Oregon's offensive coordinator). Kelly has been signed on to be Bellotti successor when Bellotti resigns & that was a GREAT MOVE by Phil Knight & co. Kelly has been Oregon's OC ((Offensive Coordinator)) for the last 2 years & Oregon has not lost a game with 2 weeks or more to prepare, including last years bowl win without the injured Dennis Dixon. His spread offense has Oregon ranked atop the very best in the nation in total yds & the run game. This year, Oregon had 2 bye weeks, and look at the results of those games in which Kelly had a chance to prepare extra for a team. Oregon pounded Arizona St. 54-20 AT ASU might I add..... after their 1st bye & then proceeded to smash Oregon St.'s Rose Bowl hopes AT Oregon St. mind you by the score of 65-38. Kelly is flat out one of, if not the best OC's in the nation & his #'s back it up. In his 2 years at Oregon, he has changed the culture that was Oregon fading in late Nov/Dec & into their bowl game. Prior to Kelly being on board, Oregon was (14-30) in Nov/Dec & was (5-14) in bowl games. It's a short body of work for him so far granted, but I am a believer & I follow this team closely. The 2nd intangible is the Todd Doxey factor. Here is the link to the story... http://blogs.registerguard.com/cms/index.php/duck-football/comments/in-todds-memory/ Dont get me wrong, this game vs Okie St. is not going to be easy by any means, as Okie St. has a slate of weapons themselves that the Oregon "D" especially pass defense will have to contain to some degree. It needs to be noted that Okie St. will be w/out their defensive cooridinator Tim Beckman, as he took the Toledo head coaching job, and that is a adjustment worth noting for sure. I just see more things that lead me to believe Oregon not only covers the +3.5, but that they will win this game outright. So here is my official plays:

Oregon +3.5  -120  (3.6/3.0) & -125 (1.87/1.5) Total Wager= (5.47/4.5)

Oregon $$line  +135  (1.0/1.35)

Comments
  • Fri, Dec 19 2008 1:26 PM

    Excellent read, GF. You clearly state your case for Oregon. I also like that you closely follow this team. I remember you pegged Oregon outright in the OSU matchup a few weeks ago, too.

  • Fri, Dec 19 2008 5:22 PM

    Thanks alot Joe, always appreciate your support. You do nothing but pass along good things for countless cappers here & that should be recognized. I do have a good read generally on local teams & I feel strong about Oregon here in this spot.

  • Sat, Dec 20 2008 1:31 AM

    YEP-

    THE KELLY FACTOR IS JUST AS YOU STATE:

    TURING WHAT WAS ONCE A PROGRAM AND STAFF THAT FAILED TO ADJUST TO INJURIES AND OTHER TEAMS ADJUSTMENTS HAS NOW TURNED THE TABLES - QUICKLY - INTO JUST THE OPPOSITE....A PROGRAM ON THE ATTACK, ADDING WRINKLES AND EXPANDING ON ALL ASPECTS OF THE SPREAD THAT MAKE IT WORK IN THE FIRST PLACE....

    i.e., LEARNING FROM THE 'BOISE LESSON' -

    Broncos made Oregon look downright silly - by stuffing the OUTSIDE box with 'DIME LBS' - forcing Ore to throw - and Boise built a 24 pt late 3rd qtr lead before Ducks burnt red-shirt year of QB Thomas just to have a chance thru the air....it almost worked...with a few more minutes it would have....

    BUT THINK ABOUT HOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT IN THE PASSING GAME IT TAKES TO IMPROVE FROM AVG 77 TO 200 - FROM GAME FIVE TO GAME 12?

    AVG!

    TURNING A NEGATIVE INTO A POSITIVE PASSING PER GAME BY SEASON END IS HARD TO UNDERESTIMATE!

    WE ALL KNOW OREGON PASSES THE 'EYEBALL TEST' - INSTEAD OF ZOOMING OUT TO 6-0 RECORD AND FALTERING DOWN THE STRETCH (....ahhh, didn't Jeff Tedford Coach Offense in Eugene?....and Cal was the only team in Conf last year to re-gress 3 Consecutive Seasons in Wins?), Oregon rebounded defensively - discovering their vaunted Rush Defense, and pared down the turnovers drastically - although many will look at their 2.3/gm as too many....it's 1 less than the avg thru 5 games.

    OKIE TRULY PEAKED IN AUSTIN - AND TURNOVERS AND YDS GIVEN UP ALL OVER THE FIELD JUMPED TREMENDOUSLY IN LAST 5 GAMES...

    TWO TEAMS GOING IN DIAMETRICALLY OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS....

    I TRULY AGREE WITH THIS SELECTION...GET SOME.

  • Sat, Dec 20 2008 8:35 AM

    Googfella your insight on Pregame is invalueble especially when it comes to your local teams. Thanks again for all the the time you put into your writeups. Happy hollidays!!!!!

  • Sat, Dec 20 2008 11:30 AM

    Thanks umfootball, you're welcome. I wish I had the time to post analysis on ALL my plays, but with me being a daily bettor & so many sports going on & myself concentrating most my time to the Bowl season, I am doing what I can. I apprecite yur support.

    SteveBeav- Just a great reply to my BLOG, & thanks for the additional info, & thanks for stopping by & taking the time to post.

  • Sat, Dec 20 2008 11:49 AM

    Very pleased to see you on this one GF.  I grabbed the Ducks right after the lines came out, and I think you have a real good shot at the ML winner here.  Best of luck to us.

  • Sat, Dec 20 2008 3:28 PM

    Nice to hear you are on my Ducks as well Chad. The team is flat out playing at all-time high now, production wise & pysche wise. As you know, I am not a homer player & will fade both Oregon Football & the Trailblazers if I think its the right spot to do it in. Best of luck to us buddy.

  • Tue, Dec 23 2008 10:52 AM

    I'm starting to look at this one more closely because before I know it, it'll be game day. But there's not much for me to do; you did most of the work for me right here in your blog. What I really like is that both you and Steve are on this one and with you being a PAC-10 expert,  It's going to be one of my top plays

  • Tue, Dec 23 2008 12:59 PM

    Excellent stuff, would be been a much different result vs Boise if the two played this weekend.

  • Tue, Dec 23 2008 1:06 PM

    Thanks Dave & I totally agree with that statement....Lets get TCU 2night buddy.

  • Mon, Dec 29 2008 11:11 AM

    I like Oregon so much,  I'm making one of my larger bets onem th

  • Mon, Dec 29 2008 11:12 PM

    Bump for Tuesday - outstanding analysis.

  • Mon, Dec 29 2008 11:44 PM

    Thanks Matty....I appreciate that. It's my Bowl GOY & I am really stepping out on this one.

  • Mon, Dec 29 2008 11:52 PM

    good luck.  I know you spent a lot of time on this.  Get some, like Stevebeav said.

  • Tue, Dec 30 2008 12:41 AM

    BOL to you and your Ducks tonight, GF.

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