Holiday Bowl *Bowl GOY* (((Oregon vs Oklahoma St.))) $Outright Winner$

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Holiday Bowl *Bowl GOY* (((Oregon vs Oklahoma St.))) $Outright Winner$

 Duck takes a ride

 
Oregon comes into the Holiday Bowl as the #1 rushing team in CFB over the last month of the season. The dual headed monster that is Jeremiah Johnson & LeGarrette Blount have a combined 2,010 yds rushing, with a yard per carry avg of a staggering 7.0 & they have combined for 28 rushing TD's. Very impressive numbers, all of them. With the emergence of Masoli & the improved Ducks passing game, which was just averaging 77 ypg passing through their 1st 5 games, has now lifted that to 200 ypg through the air. This big improvement has directly related to the Ducks #1 rush attack in the nation over the last 3rd of the season. Oregon as a team avg's 6.88 yards per rush, while Okie St. who's led by stud RBKendall Hunter & dual threat QB Zac Robinson average a nice 5.8 yards per rush. That is a full yard more per rush for the Ducks. In Oregon's last 4 games, they are ranked 11th in the nation vs the run & they are ranked 3rd in the Pac-10 vs the run on the season. Oregon holds opponets to 3.87 yards per carry on the ground, while Okie St. yields 4.5 yards per carry on the ground. Once again, Oregon has the edge in the run game department. Okie St. averages 9.35 yard per play, while Oregon yields just 5.71 yards per play on "D". Oregon averages 6.37 yards per play, while Okie St. yields 6.36 yards per play on "D". Okie St. will have the edge in the passing game with Zac Robinson to stud Dez Bryant who has 1,313 yds & 18 TD's on the season. This is the only area I see Okie St. having a edge over Oregon in. Oregon has the edge over Okie St. in both running the ball & stopping the run. Both these teams average right at 42 ppg & I think this game sees some serious scoring. Here is something of note to look at regarding Okie St. this season however: Okie St. vs the Big 12's top 4 teams (Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech) Okie St. averaged just 28.3 ppg & amassed a average of 409 ypg. Now, these 4 teams I noted above, averaged 42 ppg & 536 ypg vs them & this is worth mentioning IMO. Oregon has TWO intangibles going for them in this game, that cannot be overlooked IMO. The first one is the Chip Kelly factor (Oregon's offensive coordinator). Kelly has been signed on to be Bellotti successor when Bellotti resigns & that was a GREAT MOVE by Phil Knight & co. Kelly has been Oregon's OC ((Offensive Coordinator)) for the last 2 years & Oregon has not lost a game with 2 weeks or more to prepare, including last years bowl win without the injured Dennis Dixon. His spread offense has Oregon ranked atop the very best in the nation in total yds & the run game. This year, Oregon had 2 bye weeks, and look at the results of those games in which Kelly had a chance to prepare extra for a team. Oregon pounded Arizona St. 54-20 AT ASU might I add..... after their 1st bye & then proceeded to smash Oregon St.'s Rose Bowl hopes AT Oregon St. mind you by the score of 65-38. Kelly is flat out one of, if not the best OC's in the nation & his #'s back it up. In his 2 years at Oregon, he has changed the culture that was Oregon fading in late Nov/Dec & into their bowl game. Prior to Kelly being on board, Oregon was (14-30) in Nov/Dec & was (5-14) in bowl games. It's a short body of work for him so far granted, but I am a believer & I follow this team closely. The 2nd intangible is the Todd Doxey factor. Here is the link to the story... http://blogs.registerguard.com/cms/index.php/duck-football/comments/in-todds-memory/ Dont get me wrong, this game vs Okie St. is not going to be easy by any means, as Okie St. has a slate of weapons themselves that the Oregon "D" especially pass defense will have to contain to some degree. It needs to be noted that Okie St. will be w/out their defensive cooridinator Tim Beckman, as he took the Toledo head coaching job, and that is a adjustment worth noting for sure. I just see more things that lead me to believe Oregon not only covers the +3.5, but that they will win this game outright. So here is my official plays:

Oregon +3.5  -120  (3.6/3.0) & -125 (1.87/1.5) Total Wager= (5.47/4.5)

Oregon $$line  +135  (1.0/1.35)

  • Thanks JD, & I appreciate that coming from someone who has seen it all like yurself!  :)

  • RIght on Simon, smart play & I always feel great in having a part of giving you back a winner my friend. :)

  • Teased the Ducks and the Over. Much obliged, GF!

  • I hereby nominate Goodfella for this post for a Gold Star per the Pregame Constitution's goal of informing and entertaining our community.

    Amazing as always! You've just earned 5 entries into our Pregame Rewards Program for a chance at $1000 in cash!

    Remember, all you have to do to nominate a post is simply SEND AN EMAIL to johnny@pregame.com whenever you see something you believe deserves a star

  • Thank you for the PROPS Joe & CASH THAT +135 $$line Unit as well brother$$$

  • Dead on analysis. Just as you said, Okie St had trouble running the ball & Oregon came thru. Masoli has really emerged, too.

    Nice job, GF.

  • 1999- I am not the one who used the "L" word, nor would I ever.....I liked this more obviously with the +3.5, but still think Oregon will win the game.

  • Thanks fellas, appreciate it....And Vince, Okie St. may very well win this game....I just dont see it that way personally......

  • Oregon hasn't played near the competition that OK State has. Maybe that doesn't matter but I think it does.

  • Holy smokes!!  I'm going to get some duck right now before I get steamrolled!!!  Quack, quack, quack, quack....

  • He used the "L" word.  

  • I'm back again here we go Pac 10 bowl dogs are 15-1 ats if  they scored more than 30 points there last game....go Oregon.....lock of tha year.....

  • Well done buddy, good luck tonight!

  • Good luck tonight GoodFella...lets make a quack heard round the world

  • Wow...its actually a pick em -110 at 5Dimes.......