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HEAT: Miami finally lost at home during the playoffs, and now they find themselves without homecourt advantage for the first time this postseason. The Heat finally are facing some resistance, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to the challenge. Add in the epic 4th quarter collapse during Game 2, and it's easy to question the mentality of the Heat. Miami is 71-28 SU and 51-47-1 ATS overall this season. The Heat are 32-16 SU and 28-19 ATS in road games this season. Miami has been the listed underdog only 13 times this season, going 7-6 ATS overall. The Heat are 3-5 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or fewer this year. Miami is 11-6 ATS in all playoff games this year. F LeBron James is averaging a team high 25.5 PPG and 5.4 APG during the playoffs, as well as 8.8 RPG. James is expected to drive to the basket relentlessly during Game 3, considering the few times he's been to the charity stripe during the NBA Finals. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Miami is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. The Heat are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. Miami is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as the listed underdog.
Projected Score: 91
Heat are 9-3 ATS last 12 road games.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games following a SU loss.
MAVERICKS: (-2.5, o/u 188.5) Dallas earned a comeback for the ages to steal home court advantage from the Miami Heat. The Mavericks trailed the Heat by 15 points in the 4th quarter before mounting their comeback. The Mavericks continue to prove to themselves and everyone else that they are a team of destiny. Dallas is 70-29 SU and 57-39-3 ATS overall this season. Dallas is 36-13 SU and 25-22 ATS in home games this season. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or fewer this season. The Mavericks beat the Heat by 11 points early in the regular season. F Dirk Nowitzki is having one of the best postseasons of all time. Nowitzki is averaging 28.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, and 2.8 APG during the playoffs. Nowitzki is shooting better than 50% from both the field and the 3 point line, as well as 93.6% from the free throw line during the playoffs. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite up to 4.5 points. Dallas is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest. Dallas is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as the listed favorite. The Mavericks are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU win. Dallas is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against the Southeast Division. The Mavericks are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Dallas is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following an ATS win.
Projected Score: 99 (SIDE of the Day)
Mavericks are 10-2 ATS last 12 games as the listed favorite.
Over is 12-3 last 15 home games against a team with a winning road record.