Ken Pomeroy uses stats and his own unique methods (efficiency ratings, etc.) to come up with predicted final scores for college basketball games. The following are his predicted scores for today's games based on his system. I am NOT recommending using this as the sole basis for any wagers. This information should only be used as another ingredient in your handicapping formula.
Note: Team in bold is the home team. Team with the spread next to it is the recommended play according to this system.
Penn State 67, Northwestern 66 (+2.5, Over 130)
Marquette 74 (+2, Under 148), Seton Hall 72
Xavier 71 (-7, Under 136.5), Richmond 63
Connecticut 73, Louisville 69 (Even on side & total)
Temple 67 (-7.5, Under 130), LaSalle 59
UC Davis 65, Cal Riverside 63 (Even on side & total)
Iowa 67, Indiana 63 (+6, Over 128)
Florida State 67, Clemson 63 (Even on side, Under 132.5)
Duke 71 (-9.5, Under 132.5), Virginia 60
Fairfield 75 (-4.5, Over 142), Niagara 70
Loyola Maryland 65, Manhattan 62 (+4, Under 130.5)
Rider 70, Canisius 67 (Even on side, Under 138.5)
St. Peter's 57, Iona 56 (Even on side, Under 118)
Siena 84 (-27.5, Over 136.5), Marist 54
Weber State 83 (-2, Over 158), Portland State 80
Purdue 73 (-4, Over 134.5), Michigan State 64
Looking for games with at least a 3-point overlay against the spread, we find the following (Overlay is in parentheses):
Penn State - Northwestern Over 130 (3) WIN
Marquette +2 at Seton Hall (4) WIN
Temple - LaSalle Under 130 (4) WIN
Fairfield - Niagara Over 142 (3) WIN
Loyola Maryland - Manhattan Under 130.5 (3.5) WIN
St. Peter's - Iona Under 118 (5) WIN
Weber State - Portland State Over 158 (5) WIN
Purdue -4 vs. Michigan State (5) LOSS
Again, at most, this information should only be used as a small part of your handicapping.
Thanks, MarkO. You're correct. If you click on the team name and go down the schedule to today's game, the score listed there is Pomeroy's predicted score.
DB--terrific info!!! Thanks for providing it.
I am familiar with Pom and the site--but where are the projected scores coming from? Is there a subscriber aspect to it? I have found what seems to be a projected score by clicking on a team for that days games, at least thats what I think it is.
The picks with at least a 3-point difference from the line were 7-1 (Penn State was not a play). The sides were 1-1, but the totals were a perfect 6-0!
Thanks, Mike. Hope you're having a good one today.
You're welcome, cbelongia. I'm glad you find this info useful.
Wow. I just got home and checked scores. We had 9 plays with an overlay of +3 or more and so far they're 7-0!
Thanks DB, I appreciate your input. I know & feel I'm on right track and it's a good feeling. Thank you again!!
Nice work Dwayne with the numbers. Love seeing analysis and numbers such as this free of charge. Much respect to the work your doing my friend!
Cbelongia, on Pomeroy's website, he doesn't list anything related to spreads. So I had to look at his score prediction for each game, then look at the line and manually figure out what the play and the overlay would be. Pomeroy's site just gives score predictions, not ATS predictions. I don't know of anywhere you could find his ATS predictions. That's why I thought this blog post would be helpful for some of you.
DB, Is there a way to get Kpom's ATS predictions on-line? By the time I run the numbers, apply my percentages and numbers and then look at the all other variables I want to HC It takes a lot/ tons of time to cap.
But, I'm new so this could also just be what's involved and I wouldn't know. Any suggestions, or should I keep doing what I've been doing?
Thanks DB, I use Kpom's stuff and apply my own numbers, then look at Jeff Sagarin's numbers and then account for many other variables. This, (Your Post) saves a lot of time. As I capped FLSt/Clem & Rider/Canan both at approx even. Shit it took an hour or more. SO I like this buddy thank you kindly.
Thanks, guys. I just added Penn State and Marquette to the list of plays with a 3+ point overlay. Somehow I missed them the first time through. Now I'm off to add that free teaser to my forum thread at pregame.com/.../111664.aspx
Pomeroy's ratings are a great accessory when used properly, especially as the season goes on. There's a lot more that factors into these game than just stats, but they're def useful for comparison
these stats there r the foundation for information. advanced and very useful
great info DB.love this kinda stuff.keep up the great work.lets get em today. : )
Bettors should be looking at such advanced tools as these - it's good to have Dwayne help us work through it.
Thanks, guys. I'll try to do this for at least some of the games every day now that I know at least one person uses this information. Best of luck today, fellas.