Dan Bebe

Dan Bebe's WEEKEND Thread (formerly Trades Aftermath: NBA RoundUp for 2/25)

2011-02-25T03:23:00Z

Opener:

To be honest, I'm almost tempted to just turn this blog into an opener-only, where we can discuss the trades (and there were quite a few) of Thursday, and their impact. Instead, and since I know you guys all prefer the game by game breakdowns, I'll just do my best to toss some thoughts into the individual paragraphs about any personnel moves a team made at the deadline.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of N/A;

A rare game where we're not even thinking about trades. The Pistons, somehow, move into the stretch run with the same craptacular pieces they had a week ago, unable to jettison the likes of Rip Hamilton, and unable to get any sort of draft pick compensation for the other veterans that want out. What a mess. Interestingly, Philadelphia actually lost to Detroit in Motown in early January, so the Sixers are the slightly more motivated team, though with Detroit, it's nearly impossible to know when they're going to care. I'll be very curious to see where this line comes out, but if it's in that medium window (6-7 points), I might be inclined to glance at Philly. The bigger picture, for me, is that Detroit plays its 4th in 5 nights tomorrow, so maybe we ought to just wait and fade them then. Tiny lean to PHILLY and the OVER.

Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Bobcats (-6.5) with a total of 201;

Both teams made some moves heading into the deadline, though Charlotte's was, arguably, the bigger of the two. The Bobcats have parted ways with Gerald Wallace, presumably freeing up playing time for Gerald Henderson (there's a pattern in there...), but also trying to save a few bucks. The Kings exchanged Carl Landry for Marcus Thornton, and add yet another wing player to a roster of misfits that somehow beat Orlando in a tough spot. And really, I can't help but think that the Kings are better equipped to deal with the trades. The problem, as I see it, is that the lack of Tyreke Evans is going to catch up with Sacramento at some point, and it's difficult to pinpoint exactly when that will happen. For now, the Kings are the team on revenge, they play the final game of a long road trip tomorrow and the 4th in 5 nights, so tonight feels like a better effort and tomorrow, weaker. Lean to SACTOWN and the UNDER.

Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers (-5.5) with a total of 207.5;

Indiana nearly had a deal in place to collect the weedy services of O.J. Mayo, but that one fell through at the last moment, so the Pacers will just have to play it out. Mike Dunleavy is hurt, which means Brandon Rush and Paul George will need to add a few minutes (and some production) to the ledger. But the team, overall, is still playing decent basketball. They escaped a tight one with Detroit to start the 2nd half with 2 wins over terrible teams, and now they get to pick on a reeling Jazz club that has lost 5 in a row, and every time it looks like they've bottomed out, things get worse. The Jazz are almost unbackable right now, though it's also pretty clear that this line is giving Utah zero respect. That combination of factors (inflated line, but a terrible team) makes betting the side dicey. Utah should be adding Devis Harris, so maybe they play a little better than they did in Dallas, but I don't think things are getting better overnight, and there aren't any huge angles (besides maybe some slight revenge for Indiana). NEARLY a pass on the side, maybe the tiniest of leans to INDY, and totals look at the UNDER.

Phoenix Suns (-3.5) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 213;

Quietly, and we're talking barely a peep, the Toronto Raptors have covered 3 of 4, winning 2 of those games. Are the Raptors coming out of their season long funk? I doubt it, but even awful teams have a week or two where they play a little better. The shots fall and everything gets easier, and that might be what we're seeing here. Of course, the wheels can come off at a moment's notice, and because Toronto doesn't play any defense, the moment the jumpers start rattling out, the 20 points losses creep back into play. Amazingly, these teams haven't played since the 2009 calendar year, so no revenge angles, but in terms of scheduling, this is Phoenix's first game of a 6-game road trip. The Suns haven't played many road games lately, but they did win in Utah and in Golden State, so we know they're capable. They also picked up Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic to, maybe, add a little more scoring punch off the bench. It's square, but Phoenix is actually in the better spot, trying to get the roadie off on the good foot. Lean to SUNS and the UNDER.

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat (-15) with a total of 203.5;

How do you know when things have gotten bad? When you're a 15-point underdog and the favorite is the team playing the TNT back-to-back. Yes, Miami comes home from an extremely hard-fought game in Chicago, loses an hour to the time difference off a relatively long flight (not painfully long, but not a 45 minute jaunt, either), and the Heat are still a 15-point chalk. I hate this game. Flat out. I can't back the Heat laying this kind of number, even if they could win by 30, and I struggle to find a good reason to back the Wiz off two embarrassing post-Break losses. The only factor that pushes me even the slightest bit towards Washington is that John Wall apparently called his teammates out after the butt-kicking they took in Philly, and after a yelling match between McGee and an assistant coach, Washington can't really play any worse. Famous last words? Small lean to WIZARDS and the UNDER.

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of N/A;

It's B-Diddy time in Cleveland! Or wait...maybe Melo is the bigger news between these two teams. However you shake it out, there has been some serious personnel movement prior to this game. The Knicks sold the farm for Anthony, and they'll be looking to rely even more heavily on starters, and the Cavs got rid of one of their larger contracts, picking up an equally disgusting contract (in Davis) as well as a draft pick. The Cavs also lost Jamario Moon, who was playing well, but won't really factor into how this one turns out. My opinion, simply put, is that New York's lines are going to be inflated for a couple weeks, and if we can find the right time to fade them, we can cash in. This game has some of the makings of a fade spot, but the fact that Cleveland actually beat the Knicks once this year makes me wonder if that gives the Cavs confidence or upsets the Knicks. Something tells me that, because the Knicks are about 40% different, it actually works in Cleveland's favor. If we can get 7-8 points, it might be worth a shot. In terms of the total, the last game hit 211 right on the nose, so oddsmakers might tip their hand a tad... Lean to the CAVS and WAIT AND SEE on the total.

New Orleans Hornets (-5.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 195;

This is a hard game to handicap, because, simply put, the situational angle at play is extremely rare. You don't often see a playoff team (in this case, the Hornets), 9 games over 500, and even with the recent cold spell (due to Okafor's injury) solidly in position to get a decent seed, LOSE TWICE to a team with a grand total of 13 wins on the season. But yet, here we are. Normally, you'd figure a double revenge game for New Orleans would push me toward the Hornets, but here, I'm not so sure. This has a number of the tell-tale signs of a team that just doesn't match up well against the other. The Hornets prefer to slow it down and grind it out, and the Wolves seem to be able to, somehow, power through that defense. Kevin Love's rebounding is always a factor, but more than that, the Hornets haven't shot the ball well against Minny, and the Wolves have been extremely proficient from 3-point land against the Hornets. That might not continue, but then, it might not need to, since the Wolves are getting 5.5 points. Mind you, the Hornets are a perfect goose-egg (0-5 ATS) as a medium road favorite. Surprising lean to the WOLVES and less surprising lean to the UNDER.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic (-5.5) with a total of 207;

First, this line jumped to 7 after the announcement of the Jeff Green trade, so we can go ahead and use 7 as the working number. And that, to me, seems like an awful lot. I'll be curious to see how the betting public reacts to the Thunder's trade because, on paper, I don't think it hurts them all that much. Green is a decent piece, if only because he's versatile, but the Thunder, when they get all their new equipment, will have some true size in the paint, some bodies that can push people around not named Krstic or Collison. The reasons to be afraid of backing the Thunder? I can think of 3. The line is eerily high, the Magic are on a bounceback game after getting upset by the Kings (Dwight Howard told his teammates to stop playing if they're not going to care), and the Thunder have a pretty huge revenge game coming up, at home, against the Lakeshow. It's probably not enough to push me all the way over to a Magic lean, but it's enough to keep me off O-K-C. Microscopic MAGIC lean, I guess - please don't ask me for more info, it's a weak lean - and a totals lean to the UNDER, since I can see the Magic playing angry.

New Jersey Nets @ San Antonio Spurs (-11.5) with a total of 193;

Does this line seem oddly low to anyone else? These teams played in Jersey just 10 days ago (give or take a day), and the Spurs clobbered the Nets as a 7.5-point road favorite. So, without personnel moves, you could have reasonably expected the Spurs to open as a 13.5-point home fave. Then, factor in the notion that the few remaining yahoos that had the stones to bet Jersey in that meeting on Valentine's Day probably won't this time around, and the line should have moved up a hair higher. What I'm gathering from all this is that oddsmakers are telling us Deron Williams is worth 2.5 to 3 points over the combination of Devin Harris and Derrick Favors. And maybe, long term, he is. But in the short term, Williams doesn't know the Nets offense - if we can call it that - and the disjointed nature of working a superstar into a team that has been festering in the cellar for a few years can lead to some missed covers. I admit, though, I'm leery of the number. Still, revenge or not, I can't ignore the overadjustment - lean to the SPURS (I know, what??) and the UNDER.

Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors (-2.5) with a total of 199;

I said it on the podcast - I think ANY trade the Hawks made would have been a good one. All we've been hearing out of the Atlanta camp is that the team is stagnating, the same guys in the locker room still unable to clear the hump and get into the truly elite. And this, at least, shakes things up a tiny bit. Kirk Hinrich will bring some defense to the point guard spot, and an ability to do something besides shoot the 3, because, let's fade it, Bibby's fat ass wasn't good for much else. Does this trade really make the Hawks any better? Not really, but maybe it wakes them up. All that said, I'm having a whale of a time finding a reason to actually back the Hawks - they're nearing the end of a long road trip, they've lost 3 straight by double digits, and the Warriors are the team on revenge in this matchup. The Hawks are going to surprise someone eventually, but I don't want to be that bonehead that backs them every day for 2 weeks until they finally play a good game. Small lean to ATLANTA and totals lean to the UNDER.

Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers (-5.5) with a total of 205;

This handicap starts and ends with how Denver looks against Boston. If the Nuggets come out and play a great game on TNT, I believe they'll collapse in this game with Portland, exhausted from the emotional drain and from the travel. If Denver looks awful against Boston, this line will probably move up, and the value will get sucked out. If Denver plays a perfectly middle-of-the-road game against Boston, they'll probably come back with a similar, if slightly lesser performance in Portland. Outside of the TNT game, this series has been dominated by the home team, with Denver taking down Portland twice at the Pepsi Center, and the Blazers winning (and barely covering) at the Rose Garden. I suppose we should just figure we'll see more of the same. It's not clear if Portland's newly minted Gerald will be around just yet, but I do have an early expectation of a lean to PORTLAND and the UNDER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers with a total of N/A;

This is another confusing game to handicap since, for our purposes, we're trying to decide if this is the Clippers' final game of an 11-game road trip, or if it qualifies as the first game back home. That is to say, what truly makes that "first game home" such a soft spot? Is it family obligations? Is it that the team just feels an emotional letdown finally getting back into the normal practice facility and knowing they won't have to take a long flight for a bit? Either way, the Clippers aren't in a good spot. They're either in an exhausted road spot or a sluggish home spot, and the Lakers are a team playing with momentum and purpose. So, we know we'd prefer to back the Lakers, but with the Clippers losing Baron Davis and picking up Mo Williams (keeping this line off), how much will oddsmakers factor the home court? It's tough to get a strong opinion without a line, but my belief is that oddsmakers only adjust by 1.5 or 2 for these fake "road" games in LA. We may see a line near 10, as a result, and that's just about high enough to ruin my interest in the Lakers. Either way, I can safely say I don't like the Clippers here, so lean to the MAMBAS and the UNDER.

Trade Deadline Thursday: NBA RoundUp for 2/24

2011-02-24T03:56:00Z

Opener:

I'd say we're just about back into the normal flow of the season after a couple post-All Star days of going ultra light. Of course, just in time for the tiny TNT Thursday card. At least, for our sake, the teams involved should be hugely entertaining.

NBA has been going well, winning 5 straight NBA cards to keep pushing that unit total up, slowly but surely, and I'd love to take some momentum into a nice Friday card, so let's hop to breaking down the TRADE DEADLINE slate.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Miami Heat (-1) @ Chicago Bulls with a total of 192;

The Chicago Bulls have, time and again, showed how strong they can be at home, but this opening number scares the bejesus out of me. How Chicago could close the first half of the season as a 2-point favorite to the San Antonio Spurs, the team with the best record in the NBA, and, with back-to-back adjustment, open as a 1-point dog and quickly move to a 2-point dog is, well, a little intriguing. It's not an overwhelmingly strong line for the Heat, but I do think it says something that the Bulls are a home underdog. It could, I suppose, have something to do with the return of Joakim Noah, though you'd normally expect that to move the line in Chicago's favor, as opposed to getting adjusted for the normal "disruption" that occurs when an important cog comes back. However you shake it out, Miami lost its previous meeting with the Bulls, here in Chicago, in a game LeBron sat out, so you have to think they'll bring their A game, and you also have to think Chicago plays a better game than they did last night in Toronto. How does that all play out? My assessment is that the Heat's revenge factor probably gets them just a tiny bit of value, but probably not enough to warrant a play, or at least not a full size play. I also think oddsmakers have done a nice job with the total, since a slightly defensive game should put these teams right around that listed mark. Thus, very, very small leans to the HEAT and the OVER.

Boston Celtics (-3) @ Denver Nuggets with a total of 204;

As good as Denver looked in their first game out of the Break, I wouldn't be surprised to see them look that bad, tonight. Denver is going to be introducing a handful of former Knicks, that, independently, are solid basketball players, but in trying to learn a new system, might run into some difficulties. Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari each figure to play some minutes, with Mosgov logging significantly fewer, but trying to get all the pieces in the right spots can be a royal pain, especially against a lockdown defensive club like Boston. And to Boston's credit, they lost 3 of 4 in a mini-slump, but have come right back with wins over the Heat, Nets and Warriors, each decisive in its own right, and the final win (over GS) snapping a skid at Oracle Arena. Boston has had a day off, so the altitude shouldn't be a huge issue, and you can tell they would like to bring home the best record in the East. The only problem, from where I stand, is that Denver is the team on revenge - but really, I believe we can partially toss that angle out the window since the two team leaders on Denver (Melo and Billups) aren't around to rally the troops. The Injured Star Theory COULD carry over for a few games for Denver, but if any opponent can take the shine off, it's the ultra-physical Celtics. Lean to BOSTON and the UNDER.

Back in the Flow: NBA RoundUp for 2/23

2011-02-23T04:53:00Z

Opener:

As I wrote in one of my comments in yesterday's blog, February 22 was the birthday of my friend that passed away back in October, so bear with me if the timing on this blog is a little weird, or if I seem to lose focus for a moment every now and again.

As far as the NBA is concerned, this colossal Wednesday card is going to start getting teams back in the "flow" of the season. We were very cautious on Tuesday, we'll be fairly cautious today, and by Thursday or Friday, we'll be back in the swing of things, just like the players. Why bet big when even the players don't know how they're going to perform?

Sports Wagering: NBA

Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers (-8.5) with a total of 196.5;

Washington won both home games over Philly in nailbiting fashion, and Philly came back with a home win (and cover) in early January. Interestingly, Philadelphia has actually covered all 3 meetings, which makes me think this line might actually settle a tiny bit higher than the opening mark. As far as the total goes, these teams have played to 3 Overs this year, though the final score of the most recent meeting was considerably lower than the previous 2 (partially due to a lack of overtime). I can't expect a clean sweep, and I lean WASHINGTON to stay within the number in a rather ugly tilt that goes UNDER.

Chicago Bulls (-8.5) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 199;

Toronto is playing a back-to-back tonight in a series that has been completely, positively controlled by the Bulls. Chicago has won the 2 meetings this year by 17 and 20, once at each venue. It's almost impossible for me to back the Raptors given how little energy they exert on defense and how few easy buckets they collect, but at the same time, Chicago has Miami on the docket tomorrow (on TNT), which makes this game a potential look-ahead. And considering it's the only event separating the All Star Break from that Miami game, it's also something of a sandwich affair. I hate to say it, but I lean TORONTO and if Chicago's not focused, that means less defense, so OVER.

Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers (-7.5) with a total of 203;

Here we have both teams on the second half of a back-to-back, though the total is already a tad on the high side because of the large number of points these teams put up in Detroit's Overtime win just before the Break. I would argue that this line is about where it should be. Indiana was a 1.5-point road favorite in a game that, in truth, ended in a tie, and now they're favored by 6 more points. Given you have to think Indiana is considering this a revenge game, and Detroit has been less than stellar in back-to-backs, the first look has to be to Indy. Is it enough for me to call it a lean? I suppose, though Detroit is in "fight for its life" mode, and how they appear to play on Tuesday will go a long way towards whether I can trust them moving forward. Small lean to the PACERS and the OVER.

Houston Rockets @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of N/A;

Houston heads to Cleveland off a game in Detroit, but off the All Star Break, I don't think a back-to-back is going to be as exhausting as it might have been in the middle of January. Cleveland returns to the court after a hiatus that followed an emotional revenge win over the Lakers. Can Cleveland put together a rare 2-game win streak? I'm not that confident, but at the same time, there aren't really angles that push me in either team's direction. Cleveland is on revenge, but they're on revenge against everyone, so...itsy bitsy CLEVELAND lean on the side, and totals lean to the UNDER.

Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic with a total of N/A;

Orlando gets to pick over the carcass the Heat are leaving behind, and that's all you really need to know. This is definitely not a game where I'd want to back the Kings, regardless of how the game in Miami goes. We've seen time and again that teams forced to play the Heat and Magic back-to-back get bashed in one of the two games, at least. Dallas and Utah are the exceptions to the rule. There are no other scheduling quirks, no revenge angles, no situational notes to assess, so if we're just going on the notion that the Kings could be tired, I suppose that means small lean to ORLANDO, though I expect the line to be too rich for my blood, and the UNDER.

Milwaukee Bucks @ New York Knicks with a total of N/A;

The story of the night, for sure, as New York gets a chunk of Denver in uniform for the first time (most likely). How do we approach it? Well, for one, we can basically ignore any other situational or scheduling notes. Milwaukee creamed the Knicks a few months back, but that doesn't really matter. The Bucks are playing a back-to-back, but that doesn't really matter to me, either. The big issue is how the new Knicks fit into the D'Antoni system. Can they understand the movement, the tempo, and can they completely abandon defense? We know Carmelo can, since I've really yet to see him try on defense, but I'm more concerned about how the ball can STOP when it hits his hands. I'm inclined to say that we should treat the Knicks now like we did the Heat at the beginning of the year, and fade/Under-train the team until they figure it out. Lean to MILWAUKEE and the UNDER.

Memphis Grizzlies (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 205;

Two more teams on back-to-back, with the Grizz coming to town from Denver (a return to sea level) and the Wolves coming home from Milwaukee. I suppose that means we should start by considering the Over and see if we can talk ourselves out of it. And honestly, a quick assessment tells me that I can't, really. The Grizzlies can play some defense when they want to, but we've also seen them get pulled into high-scoring shootouts. The loss of Rudy Gay might hurt them in that regard, since Tony Allen is a defensive-minded replacement, but if the back-to-back has any impact, it would probably be on defense. Memphis has destroyed Minnesota twice so far this year, and neither game was ever really close, but something about this one feels a little different. If Minnesota is to compete, they'll need to keep Memphis from locking down in the paint, and that means leans to MINNESOTA and the OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets with a total of N/A;

I can't help but wonder if Chris Paul is seeing all the wheeling and dealing in the NBA and is getting a little misty. He hasn't looked like himself the last couple weeks, and it's either mental (not enjoying himself, perhaps missing Okafor to throw the ball to near the rim), or physical (persistent ankle injuries). We'll know soon, since his ankle should have improved over the Break, and Okafor is due back any day now. The Clippers have split 2 games with the Hornets this season, and this is the penultimate game on their 11-game road trip, ending back at "road-home" against the Lakers. Are the Clippers going to look forward to getting back to SoCal? That's about all we've got to go on, so tiny lean to NEW ORLEANS and the UNDER.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ San Antonio Spurs (-7) with a total of 206;

San Antonio just seems to have the Thunder's number. And yes, that rhyme was just a byproduct of me typing without thinking ahead. In any case, the Spurs have won 5 in a row against the Thunder dating back to mid-2009, and that, to some degree, explains this line. The line also jumped a couple points because the Thunder are playing a back-to-back, so we're left to decide whether we think the Spurs dominance continues, or if the Thunder finally get their act together and overcome what has become something of a nemesis. I almost tend to think that having played last night is actually a good thing for the Thunder, since they'll have the rust off, while the Spurs might take some time to get into their sets. The older Spurs probably don't mind the time off, but something tells me this game is closer than the last few, and I lean THUNDER and just slightly to the OVER.

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of N/A;

Dallas has, not too surprisingly, won both meetings so far this year, and I can't help but think they're about to win another. I know double revenge is a pretty strong factor, and truth be told, that's probably enough to keep me off this side altogether, but with the way the Jazz are playing, backing them has to occur in only the most specific and specialized spots, kind of like how we had the home-and-home with Phoenix. It will help Utah's cause to get Raja Bell and Andrei Kirilenko back, but I'm not sure it's going to be enough if Deron Williams continues his recent shooting funk. Let's wait and see where this line comes out, though I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the 7 range given Utah's slump and Dallas's hot play. Leaning to a PASS on the side, or perhaps a tiny look at Dallas, and the UNDER.

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns (-2.5) with a total of 200.5;

This is a pretty tough spot for Atlanta, and one that might get overlooked by some. They're not heading into altitude, but they are losing an hour on start time, and playing a team that hasn't hit the court in a week. My only concern is that Atlanta is busy getting throttled by the Lakers, and they might be a little irked (and not as tired) if the starters are only playing 25 minutes of basketball in LA. So, all I can hope is that Atlanta makes a valiant second half comeback and gives us a potential fade candidate. Phoenix played decent ball heading into the break, aside from one poor game with Sacramento, so they should be able to take care of business against a rather crummy road team. Let's have a wait-and-see approach, but for those that desperately need an early lean, it is to PHOENIX and the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of N/A;

I'm actually a little afraid of the Lakers right now - this is a time of year when they get things together, and you know darn well LA was not happy with the way they went into the Break. Of course, in the same vein, the Lakers tend to have some issues with the Rose Garden, and LA is playing a back-to-back with some decent travel against a rested Blazer team that might be getting some key pieces back (which could be good and bad, depending on chemistry). The question is whether LA is going to want to dominate, or whether Portland wants to get a small measure of revenge from an early-November clobbering. I really want to try to find a way to back the Blazers, so I guess you could say I lean to PORTLAND and the UNDER, but the Lakers, as noted up front, scare me a little as an opponent right now.

Back from the All Star Break: NBA RoundUp for 2/22

2011-02-22T01:49:00Z

Opener:

Ah, the All Star Break...it comes and goes so fast. We cashed some juicy tickets with John Wall as the Rookie/Sophomore MVP (at +900), Team Atlanta in the Haier Shooting Stars Competition (at +250), and Steph Curry in the Skills Challenge (at +300). We gave back small amounts with a few hedges on MVP plays, and the Dunk and 3-Point Shootout, but overall, we were well in the black.

It was also nice to have a few real days off from NBA handicapping, outside of the couple hours I sunk into All Star money-making.

Of course, the Break happened to occur when we were heating back up, so that's unfortunate. Heading into the All Star layoff, we had hit Paid Plays on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, and despite going just 2-2 on Free Plays over those 3 days, we won both of the 1* Freebies, and lost the half-unit plays. Hopefully, the rust of a break has a bigger impact on the teams than it does on our collective handicapping.

As I'll try to elucidate in the coming weeks, this is a good time to really focus hard on the "bubble" teams, those hovering between the 6th and 11th spots in each Conference, and needing a strong finish. I think we'll find a few of those teams in the next week, and we can really focus hard on backing them, rather than jumping around. These first two days after the Break are tough, though, since it's a matter of figuring out which teams are going to show the most rust. I'll do my best to put some thoughts on each game, but the next couple days could involve a tiny bit of finger-crossing...

Sports Wagering: NBA

Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Bobcats (-8) with a total of 195.5;

This game is a double revenge spot for the Raptors, but Toronto is a team that can easily lose by 8 or more. Charlotte went into the Break playing solid ball, beating the Lakers, Celtics, and Hawks in the week before the Break, but they lost to Indiana and Jersey, as well, so it's tough to know exactly what to expect. Generally, I would prefer to fade teams like Charlotte that took momentum into the Break, since the layoff can break the positive vibes. Of course, Toronto is a total mess no matter when they play. The Raptors have covered 2 in a row, but does that mean anything? I'm hard pressed to believe in Toronto against a decent rebounding team like Charlotte, but I can't lay 8 with a rusty team that tends to play to the level of its competition. Slight lean to TORONTO and the UNDER.

Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards with a total N/A;

We could, maybe, possibly, be seeing a slight, baby surge by the Wizards...sorta. Going into the Break, Washington looked like they had found some sort of rhythm, winning a rare road game (yes, over the Cavs, but still), and taking care of Milwaukee at home a few days prior. Washington lost to San Antonio and Orlando (on the road), but that's nothing to be ashamed of, and playing at home out of the Break is a tiny bit easier, in terms of getting a practice in. Indiana had a hot run under new Coach Vogel, but they stumbled heading into the Break, and I can't help but think a little of that foul scent carries over. Lean to WASHINGTON and the UNDER.

Houston Rockets (-2) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 203;

This is a weird one to handicap. The Houston Rockets are actively trying to add Centers and Forwards while simultaneously trying to jettison contracts belonging to Forwards and maybe some Guards. It's tough to back the Rockets when they're a favorite for a few reasons, one being the aforementioned personnel question marks, and another being that they don't play defense and rarely win (or lose) by more than a few buckets. This line is probably pretty close to correct, though if there was one spot where I might consider backing Houston, it would be against the Pistons, somehow still coached by John Kuester. What a mess they've got in Detroit right now - they did beat Indiana in overtime heading into the Break, but Detroit has been awful since the latest Stuckey/Rip/Kuester showdown, and I can't back a team in disarray. Tiny, tiny lean to HOUSTON on the side, and the OVER.

Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat with a total of N/A;

I see no great reasons to back anybody, here. The Heat are likely a little more tired, given all 3 Heatles played minutes in the All Star game, and LeBron and Wade played pretty big minutes. Wade turned his ankle again, and a cross-country flight is rarely good on those types of swelling injuries. On top of that, Miami heads to Chicago for their next game, and the Bulls are set to get Joakim Noah back for what's sure to be a pretty good game. Sacramento is starting a 4-in-5-nights stretch through the Southeast, and I'm hoping to fade them at the tail end of that tiring run. At the beginning of a road trip, you tend to get a team's best effort, but the first game out of the Break is usually a little ugly. I suppose with the line set to come out in the teens, SACRAMENTO should be able to hang within 14-15 points, perhaps, and I'd be surprised to see a ton of defense, so maybe a little OVER lean.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A;

The Clippers 11-game road trip resumes in Oklahoma after a short layoff, and continues through New Orleans, and then back to LA for a "road" game against the cross-town Lakers. I honestly wish I could step up and say, definitively, "this is how a team will react to this situation" but I cannot. This is an extremely rare spot, for a team to be on an 11-game roadie through the Break, especially any team other than the Spurs. The Clippers have Chris Kaman back to add some actual post moves to their lineup, and they won their final game before the Break after ugly losses in Cleveland and Toronto (among others). Long story short, Blake Griffin didn't really get any time off, Durant and Westbrook partook of All Star festivities, too, and while I'd love to back the Clippers, who probably want to finish the road trip strong, Oklahoma is actually the team on revenge. This is going to be a big line, and one I'm not sure I can lay the chalk. I'm tempted to PASS on the side, but maybe a small lean to CLIPS, and I prefer the UNDER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of N/A;

Milwaukee strikes me as one of those "teams to watch" down the stretch. It is, to steal a lame cliche, put up or shut up time, and if the Bucks want to make a run at the postseason, they're going to have to put together a nice stretch run, and that is going to desperately need to include wins over lackluster opponents like Minnesota. That doesn't mean I want to back either team, but you can be darn sure I'm planning to watch this game to see if the Bucks can get things kicked into high gear. Milwaukee is on some tiny level of revenge from a loss back in November, so I'm not sure we can even count that, and both teams went into the Break with zero momentum. PASS on the side (but watch the game for research), and another UNDER lean, as both teams went into the break playing a very slow, clunky tempo.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets with a total of N/A;

I wanted to back the Grizzlies because I thought the team would do a nice job of rallying around the loss of Rudy Gay, but to some degree, I wonder if this is one of those rare cases where the team had time off, and "missed the boat" on the adrenaline that might result from an Injured Star game. Tough to say. Meanwhile, Denver recently lost a game in Memphis to a full strength Grizzlies team. Denver beat Memphis early in the year, but something tells me that both teams remember the recent game a little better. This is a difficult spot - do we ignore the Injured Star possibility and roll with the Nugs, who may or may not have Carmelo Anthony for this game? That's a pretty saucy play. My lean is certainly to DENVER and the UNDER, but Denver is a bit of a question mark these days...

Atlanta Hawks @ Los Angeles Lakers (-8) with a total of 190;

Lakers are playing their first game home off a long road trip, but at the same time, they've been home since Thursday, so I'm not sure that angle actually matters. Atlanta, meanwhile, opens up the post-break experience with 5 straight on the west coast (or thereabouts). As we've said, we're likely to get the Hawks best effort in this first game, and Al Horford and Joe Johnson are already in LA, so while I expect the Lakers to win the game (since we know darn well they're not going to respond kindly to a loss in Cleveland), I'm not positive LA is all that interested in covering. LA has a tough one in Portland tomorrow, and Atlanta has a tough one in Phoenix tomorrow, so maybe our time would be best spent fading these teams on Tuesday. Just sayin'. Very, very small lean to ATLANTA and almost as small of a lean to the UNDER.

Boston Celtics (-4.5) @ Golden State Warriors with a total of 197;

These two teams play again in about 10 days, so maybe our best course of action would be to wait and see how this one goes, and try to exploit some value in the repeat. This one is extremely tough, since this is normally a spot to consider backing Golden State (the team that hasn't had to travel), but most of Boston's roster was in LA for the All Star game, so they're only flying the 350 miles to the Bay. Boston is a strong road team, and they get a day off between every game on this road trip. I would wager Doc Rivers is currently dropping a cool hundo off to the schedule-makers for somehow getting away without a back-to-back on this roadie, and given Boston's success away from home, this line is probably pretty close to where it should be. The Warriors have been playing better defense against everyone not from Phoenix, so they'll be a tough competitor, but I don't see any angles strong enough to push me in either direction. Tiny lean to BOSTON on the side, and totals lean to the UNDER.

Dan Bebe's All Star Break Thread

2011-02-16T01:57:00Z

Thursday Opener:

No new blog today, just 2 games, and an All Star Break approaching, so I'm just adding 2 writeups to the existing blog. Sweet 2-0 sweep on Wednesday, and we've hit all 3 paid plays this week en route to some nice profits, winning back what we dropped over the weekend. I like where we sit; I like it, a lot.

San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls (-2) with a total of 190.5;

The Spurs have been nearly immune to scheduling, situational, and all other angles that we can throw at them, but it would take the willpower of a beastmaster to overcome the letdown that has to come with the final game of a 9-game road trip, and the final game before the All Star Break. Then again, maybe not. I decided to do a little digging, and checked out the Spurs last few seasons of Rodeo-ness, and as it turns out, their road trip usually continues on the other side of the Break. This is a rarity, that the trip ends as the Break begins. The last time that happened was in 2008, and they won and covered the final 2 games of their trip that season. In 2009 the Spurs lost their game before the Break, but won the final game of the Rodeo trip, which ended a few days after the Break. In 2010, the Spurs won the final game before the break, but lost the last game of the trip. So, what we're finding is that there's almost zero consistency. It seems like the Spurs rarely win both letdown games, but often win one. But here, they only have one, and it has both angles rolled together. Chicago is on revenge, so they're in the better situational spot, and are also at home, which, as we're seeing, is a decent angle going into the Break. I know Coach Pop isn't going to let the Spurs take a night off, but I wouldn't be completely surprised if they weren't fully focused. Truth be told, this game isn't a great value either way, but given the info, or lack thereof, I lean to the BULLS on the side, and the OVER.

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns (-1) with a total of 207;

Don't look now, but the Mavericks just got a pretty intriguing player back from injury, and he's flying way, way below the radar. His name, Roddy Beaubois. I think people forgot how skilled a scorer this kid is, and in 20 minutes of garbage time in his first game back all season, Beaubois put up 13 points, 6 dimes, 3 steals, and banged in a three. If not for the Caron Butler injury, which, by the way, he's now saying he can return for the Playoffs, the Mavs might really be in business. And here, on the second half of a back-to-back, Dallas has the depth to deal with potential fatigue. I'll admit, with Phoenix playing better basketball, on revenge, and beating good teams lately, this isn't really a game I want to bet. The Suns are hot, the Mavs are hot, and you have to figure both teams want to head into the Break with good feelings. Unfortunately, only one team can. More interestingly, at least in my estimation, the Suns are playing significantly improved defense. The Suns are still playing high scoring games, but they're holding opponents to under 47% shooting. What's causing the change? Is it a renewed interest in defense? I'm inclined to believe that because the Suns are more content running a half-court offense, it's just simply easier to play transition defense, and teams aren't going to get as many easy buckets. Regardless, the Suns are playing to the Under. Only problem here is that Dallas is going the offensive route. When it all gets boiled right down to the nubs, this game is a perfect no-play all around. Of course, I know that answer doesn't satisfy many of you, and you're still going to ask my opinion on this game. So, for you junkies who won't take my pass in stride, slight lean to Dallas and the Under. Don't do it.

Wednesday Opener:

A night of guzzling orange juice, advil, tylenol, robitussin, matzo ball soup, and rest definitely did a body good. Those old milk commercials didn't know what they were talking about.

The NBA is drawing awfully near to the All Star Break, and you know darn well I'm going to be perched in front of my TV all weekend long, ready to scream at the awesomeness that is Saturday. We'll definitely get some prop bets going to make the weekend a little more interesting, and I'd love to have the weekend thread PACKED with shouts of madness. Until then, let's try to pick our spots and make sure we don't miss any weird angles in the days leading up to the break.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic (-11) with a total of 200;

So far this year, Orlando has beaten Washington 3 times, blowing them out twice, and sneaking by with a 1-point win the other time. Both teams are off until after the All Star Break after this game, so no real scheduling edge. Orlando is coming off a solid win over the Lakers, which makes me think they could get going in the right direction, but Washington is coming off getting their first road win of the year. Do they play with the monkey off their back, or suffer a letdown? I don't want to try to call it. PASS on the side, slight totals lean to the OVER.

Miami Heat (-9.5) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 202.5;

It's a double revenge game for the Raptors, and you can bet the fans are going to come out to boo Chris Bosh, but to some degree, I just don't care. The more important note on this game is that Miami played in Indiana last night, and are still laying 9.5 points on the road. Would Miami really lay 17.5 points at home to the Raptors? The Heat went 16-of-26 from long range in a win over Toronto a few weeks ago, at home, and though I feel strongly Miami wins this game, LeBron hasn't been shy in the past when he would prefer to be in LA, partying with Kenny Smith. Lean to the RAPTORS and the OVER.

Indiana Pacers (-1) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 198;

Detroit is a MESS. Mess, mess, mess, mess, mess. Do not bet on teams that are in turmoil, simple as that. I'm not saying that we should be laying points with a resurgent Pacers club coming off a home game with the Heat, but I certainly wouldn't bet the Pistons. Coach Kuester appears to be hanging by a thread, his rotations all over the map, and his players no longer listening. The team is being sold, the management is in as much trouble as the players, and there's no telling when this team will wake up and play a good game. I can't back a team with that many problems behind mostly closed doors. Slight lean to INDY and the UNDER.

Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks with a total of N/A;

It seems Stoudemire and Gallinari are both dealing with some nagging injuries, so this line might not pop up until pretty late. Regardless, I'm trying to find a way to back the Knicks. The Hawks have taken down New York twice this year, each time by 9 points, most recently at the tail end of January. But let's remember, that game came on a back-to-back for the Knicks after they beat the Heat at home. A letdown spot, if ever there was one. If the Knicks are healthy, they have a perfectly reasonable shot to win this game. The Hawks are hugely inconsistent, and a win over Detroit probably felt nice, but doesn't say much about them. Lean to the KNICKS and the UNDER.

New Jersey Nets @ Boston Celtics (-12) with a total of 184;

This one is a toss-up, to me. Boston is coming off a big win over the Heat, but they don't tend to suffer letdowns unless it's a back-to-back and the Celts just get tired. Jersey, meanwhile, has lost to Boston twice this year to no one's surprise, and while they managed to keep one of the two games close, it seems almost like both teams are just going to spin the wheel, and if it comes up "max effort" they'll cover. I want no part of a giant spread game like this one where the road team isn't playing that well. PASS on the side, totals lean to the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-11) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 204;

I almost can't believe what I'm about to say...I love the Cavs. Not in general, but in this game, for sure. The only problem, from what I can see, is that the Cavs have been so bad that they've been getting a ton of attention, and ESPN is going to be rolling highlights of the Lakers beating them by what felt like 200 points a couple months back. Simple as that. Cleveland got a win, then they had a letdown game, lost to Washington, and now it's time to avenge one of the ugliest losses I've ever seen on an NBA court. Lean to CLEVELAND and the OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of N/A;

The Clippers are sputtering, big time. Losses in Cleveland and Toronto have, hopefully for them, bottomed out LA, but then, they have this one more game before the All Star Break, and you have to think they're looking forward to a few days off from this horrendous road trip. Meanwhile, the Wolves have been stinking up the joint themselves, and after beating the Clippers on opening night, they've been blown out by LA, in LA, twice. So, there's a little revenge for Minnesota, the Clippers are clearly exhausted, and as we've noted before, Kevin Love and Blake Griffin cancel each other out, to some extent. Lean to MINNESOTA and the OVER.

Sacramento Kings @ Dallas Mavericks (-11) with a total of 201;

So many garbage lines on this card, and here we have Dallas laying double digits to a team they've defeated twice in Sacramento, and each time by just 2 points. The line is crazy, the matchups are unpredictable (especially with the Kings internal issues), and Sacramento is coming to Dallas on a back-to-back from a game in Oklahoma City. To be quite frank, I don't really know what to expect, though with the Kings heading into the break after this one, and Dallas still with a game to play, that might be a tiny edge for the Mavs. I'd rather leave another of this monster lines alone. PASS on the side, totals lean to the UNDER.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets (-4) with a total of 204;

This is another tough game to handicap, even though the line is significantly more workable than the double digit Goliaths above. Houston is coming off stomping Denver for the second time in as many tries, and the Sixers are playing the second half of a back-to-back that started last night with a revenge game in Memphis. Do we think Houston can win? Do we think they can cover? This line, to me, looks about right, though I suppose the Rockets, one could argue, "need it more." That expression doesn't make a ton of sense, especially since Houston has a tendency to play very close games. Tiny, tiny lean to HOUSTON, but likely a pass, and totals lean to the OVER.

Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of N/A;

Denver has been a total disaster lately, winning an odd game here or there, but for the most part, the team defense has been epically bad. I would have more confidence in fading them if I had more confidence in Milwaukee's offense, but considering the Bucks are on revenge, and trying to make some sort of push now that a few of their previously injured bodies are coming back, I can't help myself. Carmelo is day-to-day with an injured shoulder, so that could derail any plans we might have of betting this game, but if everything shakes out in a normal fashion, I can't expect the Nugs to win on the road - lean BUCKS and the UNDER.

Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz (-6) with a total of 207;

Golden State is playing pretty solid basketball, but they haven't really been on the road in ages. The Warriors have played 15 of 17 games at home, so heading into altitude on the second half of a back-to-back is sort of the "trial by fire" road test. Add to that the Warriors and Jazz are both heading into the All Star Break off this game, and you have to think the home team is going to have both the adrenaline and energy edge. On top of that, the Jazz were held to just 37% shooting when they traveled to Oakland a few weeks back, and scored only 81 points. I hate asking a slumping team (Utah) to cover 6 points, since a win is rare enough, but I don't think I can back the Warriors here as they try to do anything on the road, and nearly a mile high to boot. Lean to JAZZ and the OVER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Portland Trailblazers (-4.5) with a total of 183;

Portland is hot right now, and you can tell the team is excited by the returns of Marcus Camby and Brandon Roy, though the offense will, as Coach McMillan has noted, continue to be run through Aldridge. I'm not a huge fan of Portland's scheduling situation, considering they had a pair of 3-game road trips around a home game with the Bulls, but over the Blazers 5-game win streak, scheduling spots haven't really mattered. They're scoring, they're defending, and they're taking momentum into the Break. New Orleans, on the other hand, has very little momentum, and are coming off a sprint-fest in Golden State. Portland should win this double revenge game, but covering is another story. I think PORTLAND does get it done, but it could be closer than people expect, and the total is spot on.

Dan Fights the Flu, Day 2: NBA RoundUp for 2/15

2011-02-15T03:27:00Z

Opener:

Still fighting whatever this cursed bug is...and honestly, I can't remember the last time I got sick this many times in a one year span. I blame Michigan...at least the Paid Play came through for a couple units, yesterday. Short card today, but I actually really like 3 games early in the process!

Sports Wagering: NBA

Miami Heat (-5.5) @ Indiana Pacers with a total of 205;

Rematch time, but I'm not sure this one is going to work like a typical revenge spot. The Pacers did EVERYTHING in their power to beat the Heat, and still came up just a hair short. This game reminds me an awful lot of the Heat's recent trip to Detroit, with a few small differences. One, the Pacers are still playing pretty well. I'm not willing to crown Coach Vogel the hero of Indianapolis, but the team is hot, and that can't be argued. Two, the Heat are coming off a loss in Boston that snapped the team's 8-game win streak. You all know how I like to fade teams off a long win streak, though the Heat have shown some solid resiliency off a loss this season, aside from when 2/3 of the Heatles got hurt. And three, the Heat just fell out of the top spot in the East, and something tells me LeBron doesn't take kindly to that. I know this line is inflated, and I also realize that the 5.5 is a dubious number, but I think Indy fired their bullets in Miami - lean to the HEAT and the UNDER.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-4) with a total of 190.5;

I find it unfair that oddsmakers would force two of the hotter teams in the NBA to play one another. Throughout most of the season, these two teams have been some of the best ATS wagers in the League, so picking between the two seems almost sacrilegious. Hoowwweevverr, the Grizzlies beat the Sixers on a ridiculous comeback effort on the road just about 3 weeks ago, and something tells me Philly hasn't forgotten that game, even if a lot of us have. I love the way Memphis is dominating the painted area (quoth the Hubie Brown), but with this being the Grizzlies' final game before the All Star Break, and Philly on revenge with another game to go before their own hiatus, I can't help but like the SIXERS and the OVER.

Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A;

It would appear Durant's day-to-day status is keeping this line off the board, and I suppose he's high profile enough to warrant it. Between his injury and the potential revenge angle, I'm not 100% sure what to make of this game. The Thunder beat Sacramento by just 2 points in Northern California only a couple days ago, but Sacramento destroyed Oklahoma on the glass, and it almost seems like, from looking at the box score, the Kings should have won that game. So, do we see an extra-motivated Thunder team coming home, trying to show that Sacramento "hanging tough" was an aberration, or do we see the Kings come out with confidence, feeling like if they make a few shots, they can beat the vaunted Thunder? Tough to say, and without knowing Durant's status, and given the locker room mess coming from the Kings side, they would be a tough team to back. PASS on the side, most likely, small totals lean to the OVER, line depending.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Chicago Bulls (-9.5) with a total of 182.5;

Fatigue versus sluggishness in the ultimate battle of who can be more off their game. In general, I'd probably err towards backing the team that could be considered fatigued, but this matchup is striking in that the better of the two teams is actually 0-2 against the lesser. Is that a sign that Charlotte just matches up well with Chicago? Maybe. Did Charlotte catch Chicago at a couple of bad times? That's tough to argue, really. I would certainly argue that Chicago coming home off a 5-game road trip isn't a particularly good spot for the Bulls, but Charlotte traveling to Illinois off a game with the Lakers. This total is probably pretty close to where it should be, but given how poorly the teams have shot in both previous meetings, I could see this squeaking by. Slight leans to CHARLOTTE and the OVER.

Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns with a total of N/A;

We'll keep this one relatively simple - the Jazz got beat by Phoenix like a schoolyard bully takes down the first kid to get glasses, and the post-Sloan era kicked off with a whimper. Luckily, Utah gets to travel to Phoenix on a ton of rest and try to atone for that loss very, very quickly. It's rare when a team can make up for an ugly effort so quickly, but Utah has this opportunity, and I expect them to shoot a whole heck of a lot better than they did at home. Utah forced only 6 turnovers by the Suns (committing 14, themselves), got beat on the offensive glass, and shot only 12 free throws. That is some weak, weak aggression. Utah turns it up in this one, there's zero question in my mind. Is that enough to overcome the lack of true leadership? Only time will tell, but I have to like UTAH on revenge, and some significantly less hideous offense from both sides leans me OVER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Golden State Warriors (-1.5) with a total of 201;

So far, the road team has won each game in this series, this year. And, if it wasn't completely evident by the short paragraph that follows, this is not one of the games on the card that I find particularly compelling. The Hornets have been wholly unimpressive since losing Emeka Okafor to injury, and while they did pick up a somewhat unexpected road win in Orlando, they came right back home and got spanked by Chicago. The Warriors can't beat Phoenix, but they're playing alright against everyone else. I happen to think this game is, in fact, decided by a bucket or two, and while I think Golden State has the better offensive firepower to get it done (certainly without Okafor defending the paint), it's not among my list of games I want to bet. Tiny, and I mean tiny side lean to the WARRIORS, and with both previous meetings going well over the total, I think this one is a little more plodding, lean UNDER.

An NBA Week Begins, Pt 17: NBA RoundUp for 2/14

2011-02-14T04:55:00Z

Opener:

A true clunker of a betting weekend - if we could perhaps channel Gob Bluth of Arrested Development and steal a few "Forget-Me-Nows" I don't think any of us would complain.

With the All Star Break approaching, this is most certainly not a week to go nuts on the card - some teams will pack it in a little early, and the red-hot teams will generally keep that strong play going right up to the Break. It's one of those weeks where we can weigh the situational angles about the same as usual, but we need to add in the factors related to potential time off. It's complicated, at times, and because of that, we'll play conservatively.

I also fear that my lovely fiancée has bestowed a moderate bronchitis upon my breathin' tubes, so you'll all pardon some measure of brevity in the writeups here in the blog, and in the plays in the next day or two, while I dose the hell out of myself and try to get better quickly.

Sports Wagering: NBA

San Antonio Spurs (-8.5) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 191;

We'll keep this one simple -- this line is definitely inflated, but if any team can handle the b.s., it's San Antonio. The Spurs are simply a team on a mission, and every time I think it's too late to back them, or the right time to fade away, I get a swift kick to the groin-style reminder than there might not be a time that it's too late. This is game 8 of the Spurs monster Rodeo Road Trip, and after showing some signs of fatigue in Philadelphia, they came storming back with a beatdown in Washington. I guess they're not tired. PASS on the side, and the total posted total makes me think we'll get a Jersey tempo - lean UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A;

Interestingly, some outlets are showing this game with the Lakers as a 5-point road favorite, but I think it's officially "down" right now. Regardless, the Lakers play their 4th in 5 nights against a Bobcats team that usually gives LA a pretty good fight. I realize the history isn't much, but Charlotte has covered 5 of the 6 meetings between these teams over the last handful of years, including a clubbing of LA last season in Charlotte. Can the Lakers get their energy back up after apparently running out of gas in the second half down in Orlando? Maybe. They have appeared to be on a mission, but heading into the All Star Break, this wouldn't be all that uncommon a spot for some of LA's veterans to put it in cruise control. Lean to the BOBCATS and the UNDER.

Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 184.5;

Detroit beat the piss out of the Hawks the last time they visited Motown, which begs the question of why Atlanta is sitting at exactly the same line this time around. The Hawks aren't exactly playing good basketball, blowing a big early lead to the Bobcats in their last game, and losing 2 straight. On top of that, they play 2 road games before the Break, and then recommence with 5 more road games, so the Hawks aren't coming home for a while. Will the road trip galvanize them like it has seemed to do for the Lakers? Something tells me Atlanta would still prefer to be at home. I admit, I don't much like that Detroit is playing a back-to-back, a spot where I'd rather not back them, but I could certainly see Atlanta roll into town and get spanked again. Add it all up, very small lean to DETROIT, and the UNDER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-5) with a total of 190;

The Clippers are spiraling on this road trip, and after getting out to a half-decent start (at least ATS-wise), the Clippers have lost to Cleveland and Toronto, and the need for Eric Gordon, a proven scorer, is being exposed. Now, onto Milwaukee to face the defense-first Bucks, and on the second half of a back-to-back. This line is probably about where it should be - I can see Milwaukee taking care of business, because, simply put, they need it more. The Clippers have been on the road for quite some time already, and they're not but half-way through the 11-game marathon trip, looking forward to the All Star Break. The Bucks are still struggling to score, but the Clippers play next to no defense on the road, and right now, they're a 1-man gang away from home. Slight lean to BUCKS and the UNDER.

Portland Trailblazers (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 201.5;

Portland has won all 3 games in this series to this point, and all 3 games have gone Over the total. Something's gotta give, doesn't it? Between those 2 plays, though, I'd have far more faith in the Under. Portland is a post-entry team, for the most part, and while Aldridge has been shooting the lights out, if he even settles back near 50%, it's a tempo that isn't conducive to running and gunning. Yes, Portland has been playing some higher scoring games, but looking at yesterday's contest with Detroit, the teams combined for a ridiculous 61 points in the 4th quarter. That game should have stayed under 200. But that's neither here nor there. More importantly, the 3 games between Portland and Minnesota this year have hit 209, 206 and 215, going Over the posted totals each time, despite each posted mark hovering right near 200, just like this one. And in each of those games, an anomaly presented itself. The teams combined for at least 30 offensive rebounds in all 3 games, and in the most recent tilt, the teams combined to shoot 70 free throws. Both of those numbers come down in this slightly fatigued spot for Portland, and revenge spot for Minny. Lean to WOLVES and more strongly to the UNDER.

Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (-2.5) with a total of 222;

This game strikes me as a potential revenge spot for Denver, a team that just lost to Houston at the very difficult-to-win Pepsi Center. It might not be, though, given Denver won the first 2 meetings this year, one at each venue. Maybe more interesting than the revenge angle is that these teams have met 3 times already, and the totals have reached 201, 219 and 211, and yet this total comes out higher than any of those 3 games. Maybe that's because, despite the 200+ points scored in the previous games, neither team has really played all that well, offensively. Neither club has eclipsed 47% shooting in any game, and we've had a 20-turnover effort from Denver mixed in. Yes, there have been quite a few free throws in this series, but that would seem to be the norm. Clearing 222 isn't going to be easy, but something tells me this one gets there. Lean to DENVER in a shootout that goes OVER.

Friday & Weekend NBA Primer: RoundUp for 2/11

2011-02-11T05:11:00Z

Opener:

Jerry Sloan...end of an era.

GOW 3* winner on the Lakers-Celtics Under yesterday, 1* Free loser, and the NBA slow profit grind continues in the positive direction!

Sports Wagering: NBA

New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats (-7.5) with a total of 186.5;

I love finding ways to fade the Nets on the road, and I think the Bobcats are a decent ATS play these days, but this line, flat out, is too high. Charlotte simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to pull away from most teams, and while the Bobcats have sufficient balance and defensive skill to keep almost any game close, I don't believe they are a strong enough club to lay more than 5-6 in any game not involving an opponent in a scheduling spot. This is a double revenge spot for the hapless Nets, suffering a narrow loss at home, and a half-point missed cover on the road, losing by 7. Now, with this number opening up as high as it is, and considering the lack of scheduling notes, I lean to the NETS to lose by less than the spread (probably won't win), and with the underdog playing better, I'd look at the OVER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Indiana Pacers (-8.5) with a total of 216;

This game strikes me as another where the team laying points doesn't really have much business choking down nearly double digit chalk, especially not with as solid as Minnesota has looked in the last couple games. I'm going to try my best to not get too longwinded on these big cards, so cutting to the chase - there are no real strong scheduling spots, no real strong situational or revenge spots, and no giant matchup edges on either side worth noting. Yeah, there are some small ones, but this one comes down to public perception giving too many points to Kevin Love and his 3-point shooting merry men. Lean to the WOLVES and the OVER.

San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 197;

These teams are sort of the king and queen of ATS wagering this season, but just like in any functional monarchy, only one can have the final say. Okay, that doesn't make much sense, and the metaphor sucked, but my point is that trying to pick between two terrible teams is no different than picking between two tremendous ATS teams. Both teams are playing a 3rd in 4 nights, so fatigue is close to equal, and San Antonio is rolling on this road trip. The Spurs just have a knack for covering spreads like these, and while the Sixers have been a cashing machine all year long, I can't go away from San Antonio until they give me reason to (and going 7-1 SU and ATS is absolutely not that reason). Philly does have revenge, so maybe that's a reason to head back the other way, but...(shrugs)... Lean to SPURS and the UNDER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Orlando Magic (-9.5) with a total of 191.5;

This game marks the start of a very long homestand for the Magic, one that will take them clear through the All Star Break, and then some. This game also marks the second of the Hornets short 2-game road trip, but one that began with a rather disappointing loss to the Nets. New Orleans is struggling without Emeka Okafor, and the loss of Ariza hasn't helped matters, either. On top of that, the Magic are on revenge from a 3-point loss down in Nawlins back in mid-January. That game was extremely ugly, and low-scoring, and I can't help but think that without Okafor, Dwight Howard is going to own the paint, and the Magic should be able to get a significant number of open looks. Unfortunately, oddsmakers are thinking similarly, giving us this outrageously high opening line. Is this line just high for a reason, or will the Hornets pull their usual "close game" act? I lean slightly to the MAGIC to win by 12-13, and I think this one slides OVER.

Portland Trailblazers (-3) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 196.5;

This game seems like a tough scheduling spot for Portland, but perhaps they'll prove me wrong. Portland had a 3-game road trip through Denver, Indy and Cleveland, came home for one game with Chicago (won it), and now head back out for 3 more quick ones before the All Star Break. This trip makes logistical sense, hitting Toronto, Detroit and Minnesota, but it is very, very cold, and Portland seems to be fluctuating wildly between being hot and firing up airballs. We're also hearing now that Brandon Roy and Marcus Camby are due to come back soon, though this game would seem to be a bit on the early side. I can't help but think that the news of their return is going to inspire the Blazers to some sort of success. This is the square side, but Toronto is a pathetic mess, and they're nearly unbackable without a huge reason to...lean to PORTLAND and the OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 208;

I have to admit, I thought Cleveland would find some sort of way to sneak a win at this point, and unfortunately, because the losing streak has reached such monumental lengths, the Cavs are now becoming a "cool" team to bet. We saw it happen with Detroit in the last game with the line swinging hard towards Cleveland, followed by Detroit just owning Cleveland from start to finish. And here, I just don't see how Cleveland beats the Clippers if LA is awake. Blake Griffin is a force, and there really isn't any one player on the Cavs that can slow him down. Beyond that, the Clippers showed that they can win on the road, as they're coming off a victory in New York. All that being said, laying points on the road with a weak road team (LA) is never a wise move, and even though I lean to the CLIPPERS, it's a small one, and I would consider the OVER.

Miami Heat (-8) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 193;

The Heat are very dangerous on the road, given that LeBron actually seems to play better away from home. And more than that, I feel like because the Heat nearly lost to Detroit the last time these teams met (and probably should have lost, except for a weird last-second foul), Miami won't take the Pistons so lightly this time around. I know that means Detroit is on revenge, but I find it hard to believe the Heat play as poorly again this time, or let Detroit dominate them to the tune of 17 offensive rebounds. The one big issue, besides, of course, laying 8 on the road, is that Miami is set to head into Boston on the 13th, just 2 days after this one. Miami hasn't shown a huge look-ahead tendency, but that's probably enough to keep me off that side. PROBABLY PASS on the side (maybe a tiny look to Miami), and totals lean to the OVER.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of N/A;

This is something of a revenge spot for the Bucks, who just got popped by the Grizzlies, at home, about 2.5 weeks ago. Only problem is that the Bucks are all over the map. They beat the pants off Toronto at home, then went on the road and laid an egg in Washington. Which Bucks team do we get for this contest? I would expect a better than average effort because of revenge, but it could be almost any level from nearly zero to maximum. The things that Milwaukee does have going for it is that suddenly they are the more healthy team in a game. Memphis lost Rudy Gay for the last contest, and Zach Randolph hurt his ankle in the Grizzlies overtime win against the Thunder. Without Zebo, the Grizzlies rebounding edge goes down the drain, and I wonder if the Bucks can exploit that by locking down on the perimeter players. Let's see where this line opens before making any sort of move, and you all know how cautious I tend to play games with injuries. I would advise letting this one sneak by, but given the revenge and Memphis losing so much depth, I might lean MILWAUKEE and slightly to the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-3) @ New York Knicks with a total of 211.5;

This game certainly depends largely on how the Lakers-Celtics game unfolds, but to some degree, I'm looking to find a way to back the Knicks. New York got creamed by the Lakers in LA, as Pau and Bynum simply pushed the Knicks around in the paint, slowed the game to a crawl, and imposed themselves on the smaller, quicker team from NY. At home, something tells me the Knicks have a little more success implementing their up-tempo style. On top of that, the Lakers are fatigued, which makes using the "power" approach that much more difficult. The line is pretty close to where it should be, if a tiny bit inflated on the Lakers side, but beyond that, the revenge and back-to-back are almost enough for me to make a play early. The concern? Kobe. Dude can straight up ball at MSG. Lean to the KNICKS and the OVER.

Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz (-6.5) with a total of 208;

I'm so upset with the Jazz, I almost can't do a writeup. Jerry Sloan is out, and the team opted to cater to Deron Williams over a coach that has turned some real turd rosters into 8th seeds, and has turned some decent talent into contenders. I'm curious to see what happens with this team now that Deron is basically the on-court coach. Yeah, someone else is wearing the suit on the sidelines, but let's not kid ourselves. I know there's often a bump after a team gets rid of a coach not doing his job (see, Indiana Pacers), but this is Jerry Sloan we're talking about. From a scheduling standpoint, Phoenix is in the difficult spot of traveling into altitude to face a team trying to prove it's better without Sloan. 6.5 seems like a fair amount to cover, and lord knows we've been burned by an Amar'e Stoudemire last-second three-ball to cut a 9-point lead down to 6...and as I stated above, I'm almost against the idea of backing Utah, but the angles point to the JAZZ and the OVER.

Showdown on Parquet: NBA (on TNT+) RoundUp for 2/10

2011-02-09T22:32:00Z

Opener:

This opener is easy - just take a look at the TNT early game. It's time for mayhem, for a number of reasons. The Lakers head into the TD Garden for a rematch with the Celtics, losing in LA not but a week and change back, Ray Allen is within a single three-pointer of Reggie Miller for the all-time mark, Reggie Miller will be doing his best to butcher the broadcast courtside, and Paul Pierce is battling the flu. It's perfect.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics (-3.5) with a total of 187.5;

I guess the question is whether the Celtics desire or Lakers revenge is more important, and on the surface, it's tough to say. Boston was a 3-point underdog in Los Angeles and beat the pants off the Lakers with a dominant second half. It probably also didn't hurt Boston's cause that they shot an absurd 60% from the field in that game, including 9-of-17 from distance. Boston outrebounded the Lakers 43 to just 30, and despite turning it over at a greater clip, those outrageous shooting numbers were far more than the Lakers could overcome. Yes, the Celtics are the best shooting team in the NBA, but 60% for a game against the Lakers massive front line is a sure indicator that those bigs just weren't involved. The box score bears that out, as well: Pau Gasol was just 5-for-13 from the field, Ron Artest was 1-for-10, and got benched when it was clear to the Zen Master that Ron-Ron just had his head somewhere else. The simple solution would be to come out in this game and play with a purpose, but will they? Gasol has a track record of playing a little soft in big, regular-season games, and no one knows what to expect from Artest on a game-to-game basis. The difference-maker, in my opinion, is going to be Andrew Bynum. The kid logged only 28 minutes in the last meeting, picking up 5 fouls that curtailed his aggression. If he can keep his cool and defend without fouling, this game should be a heck of a lot more of a slugfest, and consequently, anyone's game. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one come down to the final shot, so with that in mind, I lean slightly to LAKERS, but the fact that the last game hit 205 points, and this total only moved 1.5 points, well, that pushes me to the UNDER.

Golden State Warriors @ Phoenix Suns (-6) with a total of 217;

Can the Warriors finally wake up and give the Suns a better game? I'm honestly a little surprised at the ownage Phoenix is flexing over Golden State this season, since, on paper, these games should be about as close a back-and-forth game as we can expect between any two teams. Oh well - guess that's why they play. However you cut it, Golden State is now on double home-revenge with a team they should be able to handle. Certainly, the large line is a result of the Warriors playing a late game with Denver last night and creating a scheduling fatigue spot that could only be worsened if Phoenix was at an altitude. Still, we've seen teams make this trip and perform just fine (Charlotte, most recently, from NorCal to Arizona), and I'm inclined to believe the Warriors take offense to the way the Suns have slapped them around at Oracle Arena. The Suns have been far better this year as the underdog, a flimsy defense keeping them from covering spreads as a favorite, and this game falls right into that wheelhouse. If the Warriors could perhaps consider making a 3-pointer and cracking 70% from the free throw line in a game with the Suns, they SHOULD be able to hang right with them. Instead, the Warriors almost seem like they try to change their style of play to mess with Phoenix, and instead, it just ends up creating discontinuity on offense and ugly basketball. I think the WARRIORS get things squared away and get off to a better start, and some game in this series has to go OVER, doesn't it?

Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets with a total of N/A;

Road warriors in Denver, but both teams flying into altitude off a West coast game the night before. This game has sluggish plastered all over it. This game also has "wait and see how the two teams handle the Bay Area" before making a play. If we are going to look at this game in a vacuum, however, you have to like Dallas. The Mavericks play the better defense between these two teams, they aren't afraid of Denver (or the Pepsi Center), and they're hotter. The teams split the two meetings earlier this year, with each club taking care of business on the road, and I don't see any reason why that trend doesn't continue. Denver has been decidedly Melo-centric, and that is not a way for them to win games. Everyone else bails out on defense, and the fast breaks disappear. Again, though, let's see if either of these teams has especially easy or difficult games on Wednesday night that could impact them, here. Also worth noting that this game is an 8:30 local start, meaning that the time difference is not a factor. The altitude and back-to-backs are, and somehow Dallas has shown a knack for keeping the defensive intensity even when tired. I can't argue with the fact that Dallas allows fewer points on back-to-backs than the team's season defensive average (93.5 vs. 94.6). Lean to DALLAS and while my brain is currently debating whether sluggishness will lead to missed shots or missed defensive assignments, I want to see the line, but early tilt to the UNDER.

Kooky Wednesday Angle Shortage: NBA RoundUp for 2/9

2011-02-09T02:23:00Z

Opener:

Sometimes my opening remarks are going to tail a day behind the action, simply because of when I type them. And it occurs to me that that's not very interesting, topical, or helpful. I'll try to figure out how best to deal with this.

Idea number one is to type the opener after the blog, so at least maybe there'll be something in the card to mention as a larger theme. Let's see if that helps... (waits) ...

That wasn't an awful idea, since waiting allowed me to watch the first 2 hours of basketball tonight, and as I type this, Indiana is once again playing the better teams in the NBA tough. Before making a play on tomorrow's game, we need to go back and really dig deep to see how Indiana responds to big wins.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Orlando Magic (-2) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 197;

Two teams on back-to-back, and between the two, I'd argue the Sixers are playing the better basketball. Does that translate to a win, or cover? Not necessarily, but it doesn't hurt. The Magic did battle with the Clippers last night at home, while the Sixers return home from a game in Atlanta. The key with this game, at least if I had to try to isolate one factor, is that the Sixers have played Orlando tough in both meetings this year. Philly actually beat Orlando in 1 of 2 meetings in Florida, and lost the other by a single point. Now, on the road, will Orlando be looking to avenge the home loss, or will they just continue to try to find a rhythm? In my opinion, the oddsmakers are pretty close to accurate with this line, but because Philly just seems to match up well with the Magic, I lean to the SIXERS. And because the previous two meetings featured poor shooting, no offensive rebounding, but a decent tempo, this one might sneak OVER due to tired legs on defense.

New Orleans Hornets (-1.5) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 184;

Who doesn't love handicapping a game between two teams that are each ice cold? The Hornets have lost 3 in a row, and are on a rather ugly 0-6 ATS run, while the Nets are 1-5 both SU and ATS in their last 6 games. The problem for each team has been different, though. The Hornets lost 2 of their 3 key defensive players (Ariza, Okafor), so the struggle has been on defense. The Nets are just in a shooting slump, simple as that. And, unfortunately for us, everything going on with these teams is pointing in different directions. One team is allowing too many points, the other can't score; both teams are losing, etc. Chris Paul could potentially will his team to a win, but I don't want to bet on either team waking up just in time. PASS ALL AROUND.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards with a total of N/A;

I'm not 100% sure why this line is OFF, but I'm sure we'll get more information soon. This is another battle of slumping teams, but this one at least has a tiny angle or two we can discuss. Washington is the team on revenge, but then, they've lost every road game they've played, so I'm not sure how much that truly matters. Milwaukee is set to play the second half of a back-to-back, but they've shown over the last couple seasons that the 2-point fatigue adjustment to the line is actually too much. That's well and good in most spots, but Washington hasn't played since the 5th, so they're not only rested, they're ultra-rested. I just wish Washington was still showing some signs of life at home - instead, they're just getting blasted every which way, losing 8 straight games overall. I want to lean to the WIZ, but I'm not quite there, and I expect some ugly UNDER ball.

Detroit Pistons (-2) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 196;

Could this be the one? The line sure seems to think so. I know we can't take a ton from a line, but considering the Cavs haven't won a game in 2011, you know darn well that oddsmakers are going to need to continue to inflate Cleveland lines to get action on both sides. And yet, this one isn't, really. I realize Detroit isn't a team garnering a ton of betting love, but they've certainly been better than Cleveland. Indeed, the Cavs haven't seen a line this close to a Pick since January 5, and sportsbooks know that. Screw it, let's place our collective balls on the line. Lean to the CAVS to snap their losing streak in an OVER.

San Antonio Spurs (-7) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 202;

This is a lot of points to cover on the road, but if any team can hover right near the number for 45 minutes, then outscore an opponent by 10 down the stretch, it's San Antonio. San Antonio was 15-7 ATS in road games (pending the outcome in Detroit), so they're not afraid to beat someone in that someone's house. There may be a tiny bit of revenge for the Raptors, but again, the Spurs are just sort of in a class all their own this year, more or less immune to normal situational angles and scheduling anomalies. Point in case, they've played to 2 Overs and 2 Unders in the last 4 back-to-backs, covering 3 out of 4. Toronto doesn't play any defense, and like the Spurs, they haven't been predictable on back-to-back games, either, at least not lately. This is a very tough game, since the line value is pushing me towards Toronto, but the Spurs ability to win big on the road is making me want to stay away. Gun-to-head lean to RAPTORS, and slight total lean to the UNDER.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Indiana Pacers (-4.5) with a total of 190;

If we're going to just cut straight to the chase, this game marks a double-revenge spot for the Bobcats, as Indiana has knocked off Charlotte once in both venues. My concern about betting this game stems from Indy's game on Tuesday night against the Heat, in Miami. I worry that everyone is going to see Indy is in a potential "letdown" spot, and should be "tired," and Charlotte is on double-revenge, and so on and so forth, and that will drive bets to the Bobcats. But maybe I'm just psyching myself out - perhaps all those angles really aren't as obvious as they feel, and perhaps Charlotte parlays a big monkey-off-the-back win against the Celtics into a nice little hot run. Something tells me the wheels come off the Pacer-Vogel honeymoon shortly, and I'm trying to find reasons not to back the Bobcats. Until further notice, at least, lean to CHARLOTTE and the OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks (-6.5) with a total of 214;

Yet another Clippers revenge spot, but I'm not sure we can really play that card on a nightly basis. Still, based on how the last meeting went, the Clippers are not going to be all that overmatched by NY. I would argue that LA is the superior rebounding team, the better team (as a whole) in the paint, though certainly Amar'e is a one-man gang, and the Clippers are potentially the team with more desire. That last one is up for argument. In any case, the Knicks are coming off a ridiculous shooting exhibition against the Sixers, and I just can't see that sort of display occurring two times in a row. The issue with backing the Clippers is that the trip up from Orlando isn't all that short, and battling with Dwight Howard for 48 minutes could take a little of the wind out of LA's sails. This is a scary game, in my opinion, since we really just don't know what to expect out of the Clippers on an 11-game road trip. Can they bring the fire 2 nights in a row? Will the Knicks have a tiny letdown off the home-and-home with Philly? So many damn questions. Tiny lean to the CLIPPERS when we sum it all, and lean to the OVER.

Chicago Bulls @ Utah Jazz (-2.5) with a total of 193;

This game is a little more interesting from a pure basketball perspective, but is yet another in a long list of games, today, that have weird competing angles. The Bulls are in the middle of a strange slump, but one that isn't that surprising. The NBA season is very long, and teams tend to play in waves, and right now, the Bulls defense is a little suspect. They've lost 2 in a row on this 5-game west coast swing to fall back below 500 away from home, and there's a little tension among the team to get things right in road spots. When teams press, they usually doesn't help. Utah, meanwhile, is trying to pull it together after a pretty significant rough patch. Deron Williams is back, and though his hand isn't quite right, he's playing, and that's huge. Something tells me Utah just wants this one a tiny bit more, so I do have a small lean to the JAZZ, but the low total would almost seem to point the other way. But then, I thought that about the Jazz-Bobcats game, and was way off. Lean to UNDER.

Dallas Mavericks (-4) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 196.5;

Dallas looks like they might be going back to being road warriors. The Mavs are in a stretch of games where they're on the road for 6 of 7 games (two sets of 3). Based on what we saw in November and December, before the Mavs ran into a buzz-saw of injuries, the 3-0 mark they posted this last week would not have been surprising. Neither would the failed cover at home against the Cavs. So now, in a line that is beginning to get inflated to the pre-hurt Mavs area, Dallas is laying 7 against a Kings team that does have a knack for keeping games close. At the same time, the Kings have been cooling just a tad in the last week, and showing signs of the mistakes they made early in the year. This is a home revenge game for Sacramento, potentially avenging a 2-point loss to Dallas earlier this year when the Mavs were a 7.5-point favorite. Yeah, I know, there's a lot going on. At this partially-inflated number, I lean square and look to the hot MAVS to cover another road game with the total going OVER.

Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A;

This line is off because half the Nuggets are bruised. Chauncey, Nene, possibly some other gentlemen we can refer to by one name (or ones that might just have only one name), all battling naggies issues. In terms of the game itself, the question that needs answering is what happened to the Warriors against Phoenix? Was that a sign that Golden State is set to slip into a multi-game offensive slump, or just a minor blip? Will Golden State avenge a beatdown they took at the hands of the Nuggets back in late November here in the Bay? Looking at that game, it's tough to see Denver playing much better - they shot 12-for-21 from 3-point land, made 24-of-26 free throws, and outrebounded the Warriors by 11 while holding Golden State to just 40% from the field, and 6-of-26 from long distance. This game should be much closer, but "should" is such a loose term. Lean to the WARRIORS, but this one could come down to the wire, and I look to the UNDER.

All Business Tuesday: NBA RoundUp for 2/8

2011-02-07T23:57:00Z

Opener:

Getting this blog done wildly early, so I don't have a ton of random thoughts. Today feels like the kind of day we should just launch into the meat of the blog.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks (-5) with a total of 193;

The Sixers head into Atlanta off a rare set of back-to-back ATS defeats. Yes, they won 1 of the 2 games with the Knicks, but failed to cover either, a sure sign that oddsmakers are beginning to catch up with the Sixers tremendous ATS mark to this point. And, with that in mind, this line is a tad on the low side, as well. In many cases, I might argue this line is low because Atlanta has issues, and in fairness, Atlanta does have a few. Here, however, I think we might be staring down the barrel of a line that is, at long last, right about where it should be. Atlanta has defeated the Sixers twice this season, first by 3 on the road, then by 5 at home, so Philadelphia has been right there in both games, but unable to clear the hurdle. This game will likely be played pretty close, as well, and I only wonder if Philly can channel that double revenge and squeak out a win, or if they'll get nipped by the bigger, stronger team once again. I wish we could get 5.5 or 6, but even at the low number, the double revenge just barely tips the scale towards the SIXERS, and if the road team is going to come in hot, take a peek at the OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Orlando Magic (-9.5) with a total of 201.5;

The Clippers are probably going to cover one of the next two games, either this one, or tomorrow's tough back-to-back in New York. LA is a strong rebounding team, which makes them a tough club to blow out, and in all likelihood, the Clippers are going to be seeing some pretty sizable spreads in both games, due to venue and tomorrow, due to fatigue. The Clippers are also on home revenge in both games, and I'm sure they'd love to prevent a season sweep at the hands of either ballclub, or both. With Orlando, the Clippers are facing one of the few teams with a player that can legitimately outrebound Blake Griffin. With the Knicks, the Clippers get a chance to go toe-to-toe with a team that I believe they should have beat in LA. The Knicks shot a ridiculous volume of free throws in that game, and despite being completely exhausted, the Clippers let New York escape without forcing them to shoot to win. I'd be most inclined to watch how this one plays out, but I think if we lean CLIPPERS both today and tomorrow, we'll go 1-1 at worst, and I like the OVER.

San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 190;

For a while it seemed like Detroit was going to be content to just run up and down the court and try to shoot its way into a few wins, but lately, it seems like the team is taking itself much more seriously. Yes, Charlotte, Jersey and Milwaukee, a trio of slow tempo opponents, has done nothing to push the score of Pistons games higher, but Detroit isn't exactly fighting the plodding pace. That tells us one main thing - Detroit is content to play at the opponent's speed. They have played to Unders against the last 3 opponents, Overs against Denver and New York, and so on. Unfortunately, it's unclear how the Spurs truly want to play. We know they're a much more fluid offense, so that lends itself to the Over, and the Spurs defense isn't quite as strong on the road as it is at home, but at the same time, this is game 4 of the Spurs Rodeo trip, and also the game that marked the flip from the Western half to the Eastern half. Will the Spurs come out sluggish, or will they push the pace and try to jump on Detroit early? It's a very large number to lay on the road after all that travel, so despite how strong the Spurs have been, tiny side lean to DETROIT, and slightly more intriguing lean on the OVER.

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat (-11) with a total of 199;

Indiana has come out of the locker room under new coach Vogel and rattled off 4 straight wins...but, wait a minute, who did they beat? The Pacers took down the Raptors, the Cavs, the slumping Blazers, and the Nets. I'd go so far as to say that if the Pacers didn't come out of that stretch 3-1 they failed miserably, so 4-0 is good, but it's not that good. The shine is going to come off the not-so-new look Pacers very soon, and it's just a matter of figuring out when. This could certainly be the spot. Interestingly, the Pacers beat Miami by 16 earlier this season as a 9-point underdog. So, a couple months later, a little worse for the wear, the Pacers are catching 11 points. I know Indiana has a tendency to play up for good teams, but Miami's defense, like Chicago's, can absolutely shut down the Pacer offense. Miami has won, and covered, 5 in a row, too, so they're heating back up. I can't believe I'm saying this, but for the second straight game, I actually lean slightly to MIAMI, and I don't think it's a stretch to think Indy's run of 100+ scoring games comes to an end with an UNDER.

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8) with a total of 192;

Isn't this just the ugliest game of the night (or week)? The Bucks, scuffling while trying to just get a damn healthy roster together, host the Raptors, winners of 1 in a row (after losing 13 straight). Someone has to win, thankfully, but that doesn't mean we have to watch it. Maybe we will, though. Toronto and Milwaukee happened to have faced off pretty darn recently with the Bucks picking up a 6-point road win up in Canada just a week and a half ago. Now, Toronto, potentially with some measure of revenge on the brain, rolls into the Bradley Center looking to extend that powerhouse winning roll. All joking aside, this is a bad spot for the Bucks, as they have to deal with a suddenly slightly less upset Raptors team while themselves trying to work through severe offensive issues. Milwaukee should win, but covering 8 is going to take some work. Lean to TORONTO and the UNDER.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-7) with a total of 206;

This line jumped out at me as seeming awfully high, but let's see if we can determine how it got there. (time elapses) After scouring the archives, it seems like 7 is a bit of a cop-out. These teams are 1-1 against each other so far this season, with each club winning on its own court, and each club covering in that spot. The Grizzlies were 1.5-point underdogs at home, and won outright, while the Thunder were 7-point favorites at home in a game they won by 9. That's all fine and good, but if we look closer, the Grizzlies were actually playing the second half of a back-to-back that began in Utah the day before, just like this game. So, the line didn't move at all from meeting to meeting, even though Memphis has been kicking ass and taking names since that last matchup. What kind of game can we expect here? Well, Memphis is, once again, coming off a big game, playing the Lakers last night. However, in the last meeting here in Oklahoma, Memphis shot just 6.7% from 3-point land, just 43% from the field, got outrebounded by 6, and missed the cover by just a bucket. Fact is, even in the loss, Memphis dominated points in the paint, and if we sit on regression, MEMPHIS is looking to squeeze inside that rather large spread, and considering the level of mediocrity both clubs showed from the field, and the total still went over, this might very well do the same, lean to OVER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets (-9) with a total of 217.5;

For the exact same reasons that I liked Houston last night in Denver, I like Minnesota in this one. The Rockets are just not that strong on the defensive end, but extremely potent on offense, which, as we've seen a thousand times, makes winning big very difficult, but also makes losing big somewhat of a rarity, as well. This is a double-revenge game for Minnesota, and with both clubs playing the second half of a back-to-back, I believe Minnesota's rebounding beast named Kevin Love is going to be a huge factor. There are going to be plenty of clanked jumpers, and if the Wolves can clean the glass and get 10-to-15 second chance points, those are the types of numbers they'll need to keep up with the superior shooting of Houston. Houston also has a handful of days off before hosting Dallas, and I can't help but think that they'd rather just get into the locker room with a win and rest those legs, rather than put on their finest display of team basketball in this game. Winning by double digits isn't easy when you're likely to get outrebounded. Lean to the WOLVES and the UNDER.

An NBA Week Begins, Pt 16: NBA RoundUp for 2/7

2011-02-07T04:50:00Z

Opener:

On the gambling side of things, Friday's 4-0 monster sweep was followed up with two rather disappointing small loss days (0-1 Sat, 1-1 Sun). Back to megasweeps this week, says I. I still feel like, for the most part, I'm seeing things relatively well, and that is translating into long term winning, albeit on a somewhat streaky up-and-down pattern. Fortunately, the best fit line is still higher at the end than it was at the beginning.

In terms of sports-related news, how about that Aaron Rodgers? The pride of Chico, California, and former Cal Golden Bear just OWNED the Playoffs. Welcome to eliteness, A-Rodg. See that, high school QB's, Jeff Tedford CAN lead a successful NFL quarterback! And see that, Kyle Boller? That's what you could have been if you weren't dumb as a stump. Go (former Cal) Bears!

Sports Wagering: NBA

Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A;

Sometimes there are teams that just dominate a particular opponent, against all situational and scheduling odds. Sometimes it doesn't make a ton of sense (Houston and Memphis, until a few weeks ago), and sometimes, like with this one, it adds up perfectly. Charlotte is a poorly oiled, slower, worse-shooting, similar-tempo, kid brother to the Boston Celtics, and the shamrocks remind the Bobcats of that fact in just about every meeting. Boston just keeps beating Charlotte like a drum, though I will give the Cats some credit in keeping it close with Boston the last time these two teams met. I'm interested to see what sort of line we get, since Boston has been impressively bad on the second half of most road back-to-backs, and have played to the Under in most of those, as well. I'm getting inklings that this line might be near Boston by 4.5, in which case I'd probably leave it alone. I want to fade Boston on the back-to-back, especially against a revenge-minded Bobcats team, but revenge hasn't helped them in this series yet - why would it start now? Small lean to CHARLOTTE, and lean to UNDER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Hornets (-8) with a total of 201;

I must admit, I'm looking for ways to back the Wolves, but I'm not finding many. The Hornets are coming off a home loss to the Lakers, but Chris Paul appeared to play through his ankle injury just fine. The issue in that game was that New Orleans simply had nothing to slow down Pau Gasol with Emeka Okafor out. Minnesota is not going to pound the rock inside like the Lakers can, since the Wolves are primarily a 3-point shooting team with one solid rebounder (Love) and one scorer (Beasley). The Hornets got plastered by Minny earlier this year, so the better team is on revenge, and the Hornets desperately need to locate a win to snap out of this mini-funk, be it injury-related or not. I do believe the total right around 200 tells us that this game is going to be played closer to New Orleans' preferred pace. I would be much more confident in New Orleans at a number like 6.5 or 7, but even at 8, I still have a small lean to the HORNETS, and just slightly to the UNDER.

Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of 195;

Memphis is playing extremely solid ball right now, and the Lakers appear to be struggling a bit. And that, in a nutshell, has brought this line down a few points from where it was not too long ago. Consider that the last time the Lakers visited Memphis, they were laying 5.5, and, similar to this meeting, both teams were rested. So, since then, the Lakers and Grizz have worked themselves 2 points closer in power ranking. Is it time to hop off the fade train? Possibly. The Lakers tend to pull together on these long road trips, and have an interesting knack for finding ways to win the easier road games by 8-to-10, and the tougher ones by 5 or 6. In terms of which team is currently playing better basketball, relative to its own potential, the Grizzlies are far and away the hot club, but in terms of betting value, the Lakers fade train might be running on fumes. Small lean to the LAKERS and the OVER.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks (-15) with a total of 204.5;

At this price, I am rather strongly considering the hapless Cavs. To their credit, while they may be losing every game and setting NBA records for futility in the process, they are, at least, competitive in the last week. The only problem? Dallas is steamrolling teams right now. The Mavs are rounding back into Dirk-shape, covering 5 straight spreads while winning 8 straight games, overall. Simply put - the value is squarely on the disaster from Ohio, but I'd rather wait until Cleveland plays a team having any sort of issue as opposed to one of the hottest teams in the NBA. PASS on the side, totals lean to the OVER.

Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets with a total of N/A;

I'm not 100% sure why this line is off, and I've been looking for answers. Hopefully, we'll learn more in the morning. My best guess is that Aaron Brooks is going to get suspended for abandoning his team, and Melo's elbow is sore, but neither may impact the game...In any event, Houston heads back out for one more road game after playing 4 on the road and 1 at home. This is a double-revenge spot for the Rockets, who, as a team, seem somewhat unaffected by the location of a game. Not so much that they'll win at any spot, but they'll shoot 60% on the road just as easily as they'll shoot 40%, and the same story goes for home games. That makes me think this game could go in a ton of directions. One thing you have to give to Houston: when they lose, they sure do fight their tails off to keep the game relatively close. Outside of an ugly loss to Orlando at home, and a late-game flop in San Antonio, the Rockets seem to find ways to lose by 4-to-7 points. Let's wait and see where this line opens up, but if the 7-point underdog line Houston was afforded in Denver earlier this year is any indication, it will likely open between 5 and 6.5 (since Houston is rested this time around). Denver, meanwhile, is still looking for a defense, and winning when they feel like it. Lean to ROCKETS and the UNDER.

Chicago Bulls (-1.5) @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of 183;

This line is begging me to take the Bulls, and I can't help but feel a bit tempted. Considering Portland is coming home off a 3-game road trip (shorter than our usual limit of 4), is playing its 5th game in 7 days, and, simply put, just isn't playing that well, it's hard to see a great reason to back Portland. There are a couple small reasons to handle Chicago with an oven mitt, though. First, Portland is on revenge from a butt-kicking they took in Chicago back in November. Second, the Bulls loss in Golden State was a sluggish effort, the kind of game that might mark a short stretch of tired play. Third, the Bulls loss to the Warriors snapped a 6-game win streak, and I tend to look to fade teams off a long winning stretch. The scales of handicapping justice are having issues weighing out the angles. If we just look at regression, the lean is to PORTLAND, since the Blazers shot 0-for-14 from 3-land in that game in Chicago, the Bulls shot 60% from the field, and Portland only lost by 12, and I can't help but peek at the UNDER.

Utah Jazz (-2) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 199;

The Kings have played the Jazz pretty tough over the last couple of seasons, despite the apparent gap in team talent. That may partially explain the low line. Certainly, Utah's lackluster play over the last month combined with Sacramento's ability to cover spreads is also pushing the line down. Still, Utah hasn't been less than a 7-point favorite to the Kings in quite some time, and that this line is an entire handful less than that, and neither team is on a back-to-back or missing a superstar tells us all we need to know. Utah is playing inconsistent, at best, and though Deron Williams is back, I'm wondering if his performance in Denver was more about adrenaline than health. Kings bounce back from the Spurs loss by taking out aggression against a less skilled team that, in general, seems content to trade buckets. Lean to the KINGS and the OVER.

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors (-3) with a total of 221;

I want to go straight to the revenge factor, but the home-and-home scheduling spot supersedes all of it. These teams play again, in Phoenix, on the 10th, so this game is merely a precursor to the second showdown. And, for those that have been reading all season, you know how we generally handle these spots. Wait out the first game, hope for an intriguing final score, and react accordingly. In terms of taking this game in isolation, then yes, we can look at Golden State's revenge from losing to Phoenix, at home, back on December 2. However, I would argue that Golden State has stepped up its defense - not to the point that they're a juggernaut, but they're actually trying to stop people, and it's working out nicely. Phoenix is in the midst of a very home-heavy portion of their schedule, so I'm curious to see how the Marcin Gortat Freight Train looks on the road. Something tells me it won't be quite as pretty. Phoenix shot a powerhouse 55% the last time they came to Oakland, and I'm inclined to think the Warriors are going to be focused on keeping that from happening again. Lean to GOLDEN STATE and the UNDER.

Dan Bebe's Weekend Thread for 2/5-6 (formerly Friday's 4-0 Supersweep Blog)

2011-02-03T22:15:00Z

Opener:

What a swell Friday, eh? 4-0 on NBA plays for the 2nd straight Friday, and I'm slowly falling in love with that day of the week...onto Saturday, the Game of the Week, and a nice crop of NBA games with quite a few scheduling angles (I'm looking at you, Jeff!)

I'm shrinking the old Friday blog just so I still have it on hand, but no one is really inclined to go back and read the wrong day...

Sports Wagering: NBA

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers (-3.5) with a total of 209;

This is the first half of a home-and-home between the Knicks and Sixers, and you cats know how I love to handle these situations: watch the first game, go a little big on the second. And, frankly, I don't see any reason to change my approach here. Philadelphia is playing excellent basketball, and with Andre Iguodala back at full strength, the team is able to play him at a point forward position, an awfully tough defensive assignment for most opposing small forwards. The Knicks can deploy a handful of athletic wing players, so we might see the Sixers go to a more traditional offense. I rather think Elton Brand is a decent defensive challenge for Amar'e Stoudemire, too. The Knicks are on revenge from a home loss to Philadelphia back near the beginning of the season, which makes me think they might actually win this one. What does all that garbage mean? PLAY THE NEXT ONE on the side, and slight totals lean to the OVER.

Orlando Magic (-6) @ Washington Wizards with a total of 199;

I really, really want to find a way to back the Wizards in this game, with Orlando coming off a huge showdown, at home, on TNT, with the Miami Heat, but I'm struggling to do so. Washington is playing its first home game off a 4-game road trip that, not surprisingly, went poorly. I suppose you could argue a letdown for Orlando; I suppose you could argue a sluggish spot for Washington; I also suppose you could say Washington is on revenge, though a 1-point loss to the Magic at home was almost a revenge win. Tiny lean to WASHINGTON, though ultimately, I will likely pass, and lean to UNDER.

Miami Heat (-6) @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of 188;

Much like with Orlando, the Miami letdown argument is going to be at the forefront, but much like with the Wizards, Charlotte is playing its first home game in a long, long time. The Bobcats were on the road for 6 games in 9 days, and this home game absolutely falls into that sluggish category. And, wouldn't you know it, we have competing situational/scheduling angles, yet again. Charlotte is on double revenge, so they have that going for them, but I don't think I can ever find a good enough reason to take a team returning home off a 6-game road trip, especially not a club that traveled as far as Charlotte. The Bobcats' trip was rather poorly planned, it seems, jetting from Sacramento to Phoenix, back to Northern California, LA, Utah, and Detroit. That's too much. This line is coming down because of the potential for a Miami letdown and the Charlotte double-revenge, but I don't buy it. Slight lean to MIAMI and the UNDER.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors (-3.5) with a total of 215;

This is a pretty prominent revenge game for the Raptors, considering they only see Minnesota twice a year, and they just happened to have played the Wolves within the last week. Yes, Toronto had some travel issues, and they might be a hair tired, but I happen to think they'll be quite pleased to get back home, where they play 5 of the next 6. This line is a pretty strong indicator that Toronto brings a solid game, too. I admit, I can't stand the Raptors these days - they're weak on the boards, they rely far too much on jumpshots, play zero defense, and seem to have at least one quarter every game where they tank, but for any team that has lost 13 in a row to be laying 3.5, I can't argue with the line. Lean to the revenge-minded RAPTORS and the OVER.

Portland Trailblazers @ Indiana Pacers (-3) with a total of 194;

This line surprises the hell out of me - I know the Pacers won a couple, but those wins came against, arguably, the two worst teams in the NBA. I'm not convinced the "new" Pacers are any different. We've been told they're going to run the offense through the point guard quite a bit more, which is great for Darren Collison's fantasy stats, but it remains to be seen if it's going to change the Pacers fortune much. The Blazers are coming in off an ugly loss to Denver, but they never play well at the Pepsi Center. Portland is going to try to slow the game down and make it a defensive struggle, and frankly, I don't see much of a reason to think the Pacers really are as good as this line indicates. Small lean to PORTLAND and the OVER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks (-7.5) with a total of 196;

The Clippers may have gotten a little ahead of themselves, and after a red-hot stretch, have now lost 3 of 5. The Clips are still a terrible road team, but this is a rather unique situation, because, basically, LA is playing a quarter of its road games all at once. This game marks the start of an epic 11-game road trip for the Clippers, and if history has taught us anything, it's that teams tend to give their best efforts on long road trips near the beginning. In fact, even recent history seems to suggest the same - the Bobcats won 3 straight to open their recent 6-gamer, then lost 2; the Nuggets won 3, then lost 2; the Bulls covered 6 of 7 games on their Circus trip back in November, etc. The Hawks shouldn't be laying more than a handful to almost anyone - the team defense is suffering, as Atlanta seems content to rely on offensive firepower to win, and the Clippers strike me as a team that's going to give max effort for 48 minutes, and it's a revenge game, to boot. Lean to the CLIPSHOW and the OVER.

New Jersey Nets @ Detroit Pistons (-5) with a total of 187;

Double road revenge for the Pistons would seem to be the one key angle at play in this game, as Detroit has had to play the first 2 meetings of the year in Jersey, and has dropped them both. Now, the Nets have to fly to Motown and try to solve their road issues against a team that may very well be out for blood. Interestingly, Detroit remains not-that-far out of a Playoff spot, and while it would seem to be a bit of a stretch (given Charlotte and Philadelphia playing better), it's not out of the question, and beating teams like Jersey could go a long way toward getting that win count up. The Nets are an horrid 3-23 road team, so put that together with Detroit's slightly improved offense, and you've got yourself a lean. Look at DETROIT and no real lean on the total, but if I must, I'd lean OVER.

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics (-6.5) with a total of 190;

This is one of those games where the only thing I want to know is how the public is going to bet it, because I just don't know for sure. Boston is definitely the more public club, though Dallas's throttling of the Knicks at MSG brought them back into the spotlight. Dallas had lost enough of its public love during a cold stretch, that I think, and I could be wrong, that this line should get relatively split action. And that's fine, because I like Dallas here. I'm not sold that they win the game, but I get the feeling they keep it close. Boston is playing its first home game off a 4-game West coast swing through Portland, Phoenix, LA and Sacramento. They went 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, but that sort of success should be enough to get Boston to relax for a quarter tonight. Dallas is ramping its game back up, and I might even consider the moneyline, but Boston is on revenge from a 2-point loss in Dallas. This could very easily be a 2-point game the other way. Lean to the MAVERICKS and the UNDER.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies (-13.5) with a total of 202.5;

Cleveland is finding ways to cover games lately, due to some absurdly inflated spreads, but a blowout loss is always just a few turnovers away. There aren't any especially evident angles, though I suppose Memphis did lose to Cleveland back in November, but I'm not sure how a team "gets up" to play the Cavs, even if there's a smattering of revenge involved. PASS ALL AROUND.

Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) @ Phoenix Suns with a total 216;

Here we have home revenge for the Thunder, and something tells me they remember that loss. The Suns were shorthanded, but rolled into Oklahoma City and shot nearly 58% in a narrow 3-point win over the Thunder, and if Oklahoma plays even a shred of defense, they win that game going away. Now, Phoenix is playing pretty well right now, largely because of my new NBA hero, Marcin Gortat, but the Thunder are simply too talented. No one on the Suns is going to be able to handle Westbrook or Durant, and as Phoenix generally relies on outscoring teams, the Thunder have no shortage of offense with which to combat that tactic. I like the energy of the Suns lately, but the Nash-to-Lopez/Gortat combo isn't going to be enough. Lean to the THUNDER and the OVER.

San Antonio Spurs (-5.5) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 198;

Unlike the Magic and Heat games we discussed earlier, in this one, the Spurs are in a potential letdown, but the home team isn't returning from a long road trip. Instead, the Kings are playing their best basketball of the season, are covering games (winning some, even), and are well rested. This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams, and I'll admit, from a matchup perspective, Tim Duncan might be the biggest challenge a suddenly surging Demarcus Cousins will face, but I can't help but think the Kings have the confidence to keep it close. Beno Udrih will be facing his old team, the Spurs have had a tendency to get off to slow starts, and if San Antonio is fighting back all night, they might win by 2-3 and no one would leave the arena surprised. Lean to SACRAMENTO and the UNDER.

Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets with a total of N/A;

I think I saw everything I needed to when the Jazz went into Oakland and got completely shut down by a crummy defensive Warriors team. Without Deron Williams and without Andrei Kirilenko, the Jazz become one-dimensional. They feed the ball to Millsap and Jefferson in the post, and hope for the best. And yes, against a weaker Rockets team, it was almost (and probably should have been) enough. Against the bigger, faster Nuggets at the mean, nasty old Pepsi Center, I can't see Utah keeping this thing within striking distance. That is, of course, assuming Deron misses another game or two. Last I heard, he couldn't shoot outside of 11 feet, so even if he does play, what sort of level of effectiveness will he have? Utah is on revenge from opening night, but it just doesn't have that normal sting. We can back the Jazz when they're healthy and hosting Denver, but here, I can't help but lean to the NUGGETS to win relatively large, and the Jazz's offensive woes point to an UNDER.

Not Snow Much: NBA RoundUp for 2/3

2011-02-03T01:17:00Z

Opener:

Well, after all that, a large part of Southeast Michigan didn't get hit all that hard by what was supposed to be the worst storm in almost a decade.

Instead, we got some winds that knocked out cable/internet (curse you, Comcast), and just a little more snow to remove from vehicles before running errands. Call me crazy, but I rather wanted to see some truly nutty Midwest weather before moving back to sunny SoCal, but I guess I'll just have to be satisfied with saying I was near the storm...

Over in the NBA, games went as planned despite a few flight delays, and with a few days for workers to clear roads and airports, we might just be in the clear.

Also, something I'd like to try to do on the short Thursday cards moving forward is to talk a bit more about individual players in these opening remarks, and this week, I just want to throw props to Marcin Gortat. Steve Nash is turning yet another fairly athletic big man into a jam-master, so maybe I should be giving Nash the credit, but Gortat is playing his balls off in Phoenix, and his energy is rubbing off on teammates. I have to admit, an eavesdropper would have heard me laughing and yelling during the Phoenix-New Orleans game a couple days back every time Gortat dropped the Polish hammer on an unsuspecting Hornet. Truly awesome.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic (-2) with a total of 197;

This should be an excellent TNT early game. Unfortunately, in terms of betting angles, we're left a little high and dry. These two teams have faced off twice so far this NBA season, and each team won a home game as a listed 3.5-point favorite. Now, some time later, Orlando comes out as a slightly shorter home favorite, with a total almost 10 points higher. I would advise people not to read too much into the line. I don't believe the total is higher because oddsmakers are trying to bait you into taking any particular play, and I don't think the side is anything more than oddsmakers way of saying that they believe the Heat are just a hair better on a neutral site...and frankly, I agree. Miami plays significantly better defense than Orlando, and while the Magic have the clear edge near the bucket, Wade and James are each accomplished enough, and strong enough, to get to the hoop. Thus, with this game, I wouldn't look too much into any possible situational angles, since each team is going to want the game a good deal, and I don't believe there are any particularly intriguing scheduling quirks. Instead, keep it simple - the Heat are healthy again, and they have the pieces to keep the Magic from scoring. Miami will use the Boston Celtics strategy, and that is defend the pick-and-roll, and make Dwight Howard win the game. That will keep the game slow, and more to Miami's liking - leans to the HEAT and UNDER.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A;

To be honest, I'm not 100% sure why this line is off - I know Bogut was questionable for last night, but surely oddsmakers should know who is playing tonight based on yesterday's shootaround. Oh well. In any event, with Bogut fighting the pain of a bone bruise, Gooden out for a month, Jennings with a minute cap, and Salmons still ailing, the Bucks health, while improving, continues to be the story. The Warriors, meanwhile, remain a strong offensive home team, and though they lost 4 straight to some solid competition, a slight boost in defensive intensity went a long way in Golden State's win over Utah. I believe some of that carries over into this game. The Bucks are going to be coming off a sprint with Phoenix, though Milwaukee has shown an ability to play well in back-to-back spots. Still, for the Bucks, this is the final game of a short 3-game road trip, so I believe that their effort in this one is going to depend heavily on how the contest in Phoenix goes. If Milwaukee gets a win in Phoenix, we might see a slightly lesser effort - if Milwaukee gets dominated in Phoenix, they could very well give a little extra and try to head home with a win. Tough call, especially this early, but based on what I foresee happening in Arizona, slight lean to the WARRIORS and the UNDER (with the side lean subject to change).

San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers with a total of N/A;

If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times - as Pau Gasol goes, so go the Lakers, and lately, Gasol is bashful in the lane. In the Lakers recent losses to the Kings and Celtics, Gasol was barely involved, and in the Lakers overtime win against the Rockets, Gasol was firing up running hook shots and fadeaway jumpers. Who does this guy think he is? Back a fool down, put it in the bucket, and give the other giant Lakers a chance to grab an offensive rebound with sheer power alone. Of course, we've seen spots like this where the Lakers look hapless going into a big game, and then suddenly turn it on. I'm not sure I'm on board this time. Looking back through the schedule, the Lakers were able to take their physicality up a notch in two spots - against the Knicks and Thunder. When the Lakers were asked to bang and bruise with the Celtics, Heat, and one might even add the Hornets, the Lakers went 1-2 SU and a perfect goose-egg, ATS. The Spurs are going to make the Lakers work, and they're not going to be intimidated by Staples Center or the Lakers size advantage. And on top of that, the Lakers might be without Andrew Bynum for another game or two, and if he does play, the kid isn't at full strength. Without the Gasol-Bynum frontcourt, the Lakers are still a very good team, but not invested enough in the regular season to crush spirits. The one big note working in the Lakers' favor, though, is that this is a revenge game, and for all their issues, the Lakers are not awful on revenge. The Spurs held them to just 82 points in Texas in late December, so I'd expect some better offensive execution, though I hold firm to my thought that this one isn't going to be a runaway for LA. EDIT - LEAN TO LAKERS, and still lean to the Over

Snowpocalypse: NBA RoundUp (and Weather) for 2/2

2011-02-02T01:24:00Z

Opener:

To those of you who took one look at the title and thought, "This Bebe jerk is just trying to get some random hits from people looking for weather updates"....kudos.

A man's gotta make a living!

But jerk or not, SOME of these games may get canceled (word has it Toronto hasn't been able to get out of Indiana), so do consider waiting just a bit before locking in any 9-team parlays.

As far as the blog goes, I really liked the positive responses Friday's blog got, so I'm going to try to model these bigger card blogs after that one - basically, more succinct, and relying a little more on the community to fill in any holes I might miss while typing up my notes or ask questions that get us all thinking about the games.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks (-11) with a total of 200;

With the way Toronto is playing, I'm not sure how you really make an argument to back them. They haven't won a game since January 9, they're finishing up a 3-game road trip (losing SU and ATS in both games thus far), and they have, at last, a winnable game at home after this one (and a revenge game), with Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Hawks are the epitome of inconsistent - they've alternated wins and losses the last 6 games (both SU and ATS), and it seems as if the team can't quite put together a full game. Of course, the hiccup here is that Atlanta has beaten Toronto twice already this year, both times in Canada. Does double revenge make taking Toronto with 11 reasonable? I suppose, tiny lean to RAPTORS, but they're nearly impossible to bet right now. I also would consider the UNDER.

Indiana Pacers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 204;

Is triple in-season revenge enough to get Cleveland a win? Doubt it, but it might be just enough to get a cover. Indiana has won by 14, 11 and 9 against the Cavs so far this season, though those meetings occurred before mid-December. Most people know the travesty that Cleveland has become since Anderson Varejao went down, and Mo Williams being shelved doesn't help much, either. That being said, the Cavs have been finding ways to cover a few of the ridiculously large spreads they're seeing on the road. And one thing I can't help but note is that this is Cleveland's shortest spread since January 5, a home loss to Toronto as a 2.5-point favorite. Are oddsmakers trying to tell us this one is going to be closer? I don't think we should read too much into it. Indiana is riding the short high of a Jim O'Brien firing, so most other angles can probably get tossed out the window. To me, the situational notes balance out to about even. I'd give a tiny nod to the CAVS because of revenge, but you'd probably have to pay me to wager on this one. Tiny lean to the UNDER, too.

Philadelphia 76ers (-1) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 192;

I'm upset. As I sat and watched each of these teams play earlier this week, I thought to myself, "now those are some teams I think we can find opportunities to back." Of course, NBA schedule-makers were laughing, knowing full well that only a fool would back two teams against each other (assuming I can't set up a middle). Jersey is playing excellent basketball at home, Philly is playing pretty darn good ball at home and on the road (though to a slightly lesser extent away from their building), and now we're asked to choose between them? Uncool. In terms of which team is hotter, it's probably a toss-up. I would absolutely say that Jersey's 5-1 home record since mid-January is just as solid as Philadelphia's 4-1 record overall, and 6-1 ATS run. The only separation, for me, comes from Jersey's double revenge, and Philadelphia's fairly home-heavy schedule this month. The last time these teams met, Jersey outrebounded Philadelphia 63-45, but just could not make a shot - this time, I think JERSEY gets it done by a short number and the game squirts OVER the total.

Dallas Mavericks @ New York Knicks (-2) with a total 207;

These two dynamic teams haven't yet faced off this season, so no real strong revenge angles to play, especially since the teams split their meetings last year with the road team winning each. I suppose you could argue that Dallas's upcoming facebook with Boston on Friday is a slight look-ahead, but the Knicks are a big-name team, and I don't suspect a Western Conference team is going to be that concerned with one East team over another. So, without any revenge, without any particularly intriguing scheduling notes, and without much in the way of situational angles, we have only "hotness" to consider, and unfortunately for us, both teams are warm. This line is probably pretty close to right, but if someone were to force my hand, I'd lean just a tiny bit to the KNICKS and NO LEAN on the side.

Charlotte Bobcats @ Detroit Pistons (-3.5) with a total of 186;

This seems like a significant spread, considering Charlotte is playing its best basketball of the year, and Detroit still can't stop anyone. Still, situationally, Charlotte has the arrow pointing down. This is the final game of Charlotte's 6-game road trip, and it hasn't been an easy voyage, either. Sacramento, Phoenix, Golden State, LA, Utah, and now Detroit, all in 9 days, and Miami coming to Charlotte on Friday. Each team has won a home meeting so far this year between Detroit and Charlotte, so no real revenge notes, and each home team dominated the first half before slipping just a tad down the stretch and clinging to a win. Interestingly, Charlotte has shot the ball extremely well in both games, but committed 22 and 23 turnovers to Detroit's 12 and 13. I believe we see both FG% and TO's regress, Detroit takes advantage of a fatigued Bobcats team, and if we can get this line to come down a tad, I'd look at the PISTONS and the UNDER.

New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) with a total of 193.5;

This game is heavily dependent on what we see from N'awlins on Tuesday night. I admit, I am scared for the Hornets, since I believe that interior defense goes right down the drain without Okafor, and if New Orleans can't keep Westbrook and Durant from getting to the rim, then they simply have no business keeping pace with the Thunder. That being said, every game in this series has been decided by 6 points or less -- the Thunder won by 6 in November, by 5 in December, and the Hornets won by 2 in January. Something tells me this is the one game where the final score creeps just outside that range, and the THUNDER win by 7-8 (so a very small lean), and the OVER.

Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 209.5;

This is going to be one of those classic "sharp side-square side" arguments, and I want no part of it. Memphis is playing very well, winning 3 straight, and 6 of 7 (including 3 of 4 on the road). Minnesota beat Toronto over the weekend, but that's not much of an accomplishment these days. Memphis hosts Cleveland on Friday, so definitely no look-ahead there, and Minnesota heads to Toronto for a rematch, so not much there either. Memphis won the only meeting this year, but that was in late October, and I'm not even sure either team remembers it. This game is 100% devoid of angles, and I want no part of it. PASS on the side, big time, and total lean to the UNDER.

Portland Trailblazers @ Denver Nuggets (-7) with a total of 203.5;

Two HUGE competing angles highlight a game that I desperately want to bet, but know I shouldn't. Denver comes home off an extended road trip that started out well and ended by circling the drain. As our friend Jeff from Indy has now verified, teams coming home off a long road trip are a very poor ATS play. Of course, Portland flies into altitude off a late home game with the Spurs on Tuesday, another awful spot. So, we have the era-defining battle between sluggish and fatigued! The season series doesn't tell us much, either - Portland won at home, and Denver did likewise. Denver has been pretty solid against Portland over the last couple seasons, winning (and covering) the last 5 meetings at the Pepsi Center. And without any other imbalances in our capping, that's enough to tip the scales: lean to the NUGS and the UNDER.

Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz (-3) with a total of 205;

I have to believe this line is being set as if Deron Williams will not play, and I'm not sure the oddsmakers might be making a mistake. It was reported that Williams participated in the Jazz shootaround before their game with Charlotte on Monday and reported improvement, but decided to play it safe. That makes me think he might very well return for this one, and if so, this line is going to jump to 5 or 6. Of course, it's possible that Williams was getting significant treatment, and we don't know how that shootaround actually went. Just daydreaming a bit. In terms of the two teams, Houston is heading into altitude off a game with the Lakers, generally a bad spot, while Utah has had a day off to adjust to altitude air. The absence of Williams continues to make me a tad nervous, and Houston is on revenge from a home loss suffered to the Jazz on January 8. I just wonder how much the Rockets will have in the tank. I can't go against the altitude angle - lean to UTAH and the UNDER.

Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns with a total of N/A;

Andrew Bogut is hurt again, and with him goes a great deal of the Bucks ability to succeed in a slow-down game. Bogut leads the NBA in blocks, is a tremendous rebounder, and scores at a near-50% clip. Yes, Brandon Jennings is working his way back towards his normal minute count, and Carlos Delfino is playing, but without an interior presence, the Suns pair of 7-footers (Lopez, Gortat) might very well be able to continue their recent strong play. In addition, Phoenix has won AT LEAST the last 10 straight meetings at home (possibly more, I just only have data for 10 years). Let's wait and see where this line comes out, but if Phoenix is looking at a number near 4-5, that might very well be a nice place to look. The Bucks play in Golden State tomorrow, as well, and then fly home to host the Pistons, so in terms of travel, life isn't going to be very easy for Milwaukee. Slight lean to SUNS (line depending), and the OVER.

Chicago Bulls (-2) @ Los Angeles Clippers with a total of 192.5;

Chicago heads to LA to play the suddenly-relevant Clippers, and this game seems like a something's gotta give spot. The Bulls have won 5 straight games (all at home). The Clippers have won 9 straight home games, and head out on an eleven-game road trip after this showdown. The problem? Chicago is on revenge. The Clippers shot 51% and beat the Bulls in Chicago, outrebounding the home team by 9 in the process, and I find it hard to believe that Chicago has forgotten that game. Hell, if I can remember it, I'm betting they can. The Clippers are undoubtedly enjoying winning at home, but this might finally be that game that the opponent is awake enough to keep Randy Foye from toasting them, and strong enough to keep Blake Griffin from going nuts. Carlos Boozer, Kurt Thomas and Taj Gibson are all solid rebounders, and while Griffin will get his, he is going to need to carry his team against a tough defensive club, and I'm not sure he's quite ready to do it alone...not when there's a bullseye on his back. CHICAGO ends the Clippers streak by keeping the game slow (yes, an UNDER lean).