Trade Deadline Thursday: NBA RoundUp for 2/24

Wed, Feb 23 2011 7:56 PM

Comments 92

Opener:

I'd say we're just about back into the normal flow of the season after a couple post-All Star days of going ultra light. Of course, just in time for the tiny TNT Thursday card. At least, for our sake, the teams involved should be hugely entertaining.

NBA has been going well, winning 5 straight NBA cards to keep pushing that unit total up, slowly but surely, and I'd love to take some momentum into a nice Friday card, so let's hop to breaking down the TRADE DEADLINE slate.

Sports Wagering: NBA

Miami Heat (-1) @ Chicago Bulls with a total of 192;

The Chicago Bulls have, time and again, showed how strong they can be at home, but this opening number scares the bejesus out of me. How Chicago could close the first half of the season as a 2-point favorite to the San Antonio Spurs, the team with the best record in the NBA, and, with back-to-back adjustment, open as a 1-point dog and quickly move to a 2-point dog is, well, a little intriguing. It's not an overwhelmingly strong line for the Heat, but I do think it says something that the Bulls are a home underdog. It could, I suppose, have something to do with the return of Joakim Noah, though you'd normally expect that to move the line in Chicago's favor, as opposed to getting adjusted for the normal "disruption" that occurs when an important cog comes back. However you shake it out, Miami lost its previous meeting with the Bulls, here in Chicago, in a game LeBron sat out, so you have to think they'll bring their A game, and you also have to think Chicago plays a better game than they did last night in Toronto. How does that all play out? My assessment is that the Heat's revenge factor probably gets them just a tiny bit of value, but probably not enough to warrant a play, or at least not a full size play. I also think oddsmakers have done a nice job with the total, since a slightly defensive game should put these teams right around that listed mark. Thus, very, very small leans to the HEAT and the OVER.

Boston Celtics (-3) @ Denver Nuggets with a total of 204;

As good as Denver looked in their first game out of the Break, I wouldn't be surprised to see them look that bad, tonight. Denver is going to be introducing a handful of former Knicks, that, independently, are solid basketball players, but in trying to learn a new system, might run into some difficulties. Raymond Felton, Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari each figure to play some minutes, with Mosgov logging significantly fewer, but trying to get all the pieces in the right spots can be a royal pain, especially against a lockdown defensive club like Boston. And to Boston's credit, they lost 3 of 4 in a mini-slump, but have come right back with wins over the Heat, Nets and Warriors, each decisive in its own right, and the final win (over GS) snapping a skid at Oracle Arena. Boston has had a day off, so the altitude shouldn't be a huge issue, and you can tell they would like to bring home the best record in the East. The only problem, from where I stand, is that Denver is the team on revenge - but really, I believe we can partially toss that angle out the window since the two team leaders on Denver (Melo and Billups) aren't around to rally the troops. The Injured Star Theory COULD carry over for a few games for Denver, but if any opponent can take the shine off, it's the ultra-physical Celtics. Lean to BOSTON and the UNDER.

Basketball, NBA, Handicapping, Dan Bebe, Blog, Pregame

Comments

Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 7:26 PM

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Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 7:19 PM

I WISH, Hags. I can't stand Reggie as a broadcaster -- he just says exactly what we're seeing, often messing up pronunciation and grammar in the process. Terrible broadcaster. I wish the Sixers were sucking more so Doug Collins could come back and get down on press row again
Hags58

Thu, Feb 24 2011 7:16 PM

Reggie Miller is gonna take a leave of absence from his duties at TNT to drop 3's with Ray Allen all day, haha
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 7:14 PM

Who else is floating around without a contract?

Leon Powe, the pride of Cal, could serve a bench role, but he and Murphy aren't even close to making up for Perk. Sheed is the only recently retired big man that makes any sense to me. Where is Robert Horry? haha
Mike Shuttlesworth

Thu, Feb 24 2011 7:01 PM

your not telling me anything i don't already know Dan. I am still sick to my stomach. It would be one thing if this frontcourt was healthy, but none of them are and you can't count on them come playoff time. I think its reasonable to assume Shaq will be ready to go, but i don't expect anything from Jermaine. Is Ainge really this dumb? I mean, i dont think so? So what comes next? It has to be something more than Troy Murphy
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:54 PM

You'd better hope he's got something, because otherwise the Celtics just blew both feet off
Mike Shuttlesworth

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:52 PM

Exactly, the defense lost at the Center position is the big issue. The trade filled a big need for the Celtics. The problem is it created an even bigger need. Perkins was an absolute huge asset come playoff time because of the defense he could play on Dwight Howard, the Lakers bigs, etc. I HATE the trade at this point, but time will tell what Ainge has up his sleeve.
Mike Shuttlesworth

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:52 PM

Exactly, the defense lost at the Center position is the big issue. The trade filled a big need for the Celtics. The problem is it created an even bigger need. Perkins was an absolute huge asset come playoff time because of the defense he could play on Dwight Howard, the Lakers bigs, etc. I HATE the trade at this point, but time will tell what Ainge has up his sleeve.
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:48 PM

I wonder if he's got much left in the tank -- seemed like if he can prevent injury, 'Sheed could play again. Boston' needs his DEFENSE more than anything else.
Mike Shuttlesworth

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:47 PM

I made the earlier post because it just wouldn't make sense without the Celtics having something else planned. And no Murphy does not feel the gap left by Perkins. And after losing size in a trade, trading 2 frontcourt players for basically nothing makes little sense unless something else follows. They were obviously clearing roster spots in that trade. My gut was telling me Rasheed with no sources to back it up. Well, i am now seeing reports that Wallace is indeed contemplating a comback once again. We will see.
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:45 PM

Watson, I'd have to say the Thunder, at a glance. Certainly of the "smaller" trades, picking up Perkins was a big one, I think.

You could argue the Nets will probably win some more games, but they're irrelevant either way
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:43 PM

Hags, thanks for answering Money's request -- makethat, you're seriously throwing money away there. The Nugs could potentially win a best of 3 playoff series, but not a best of 7...the Mavs, Spurs and Lakers would all dispatch of Denver pretty easily
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:41 PM

Haven't even begun, Z! But you can be damn sure Gill and I will parse out a few intriguing ones on a podcast preview!
Brandon Watson

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:41 PM

Dan which team better'd itself more than any other on deadline day?
Dan Bebe

Thu, Feb 24 2011 6:37 PM

Well if it's Greg!

I agree, OkC made some nice trades -- got rid of pieces that weren't NECESSARY and picked up a big man in Perkins that can impose himself on defense. Wait, defense? In Oklahoma?

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