Weekend Recap: The week of death finally got an adrenaline shot to the heart! Thank goodness, because I'm not sure my already-scuffling male pattern baldness could have taken 2 more days of that garbage.
Saturday, we cashed the 3* GOM on the Minnesota Golden Gophers, giving us a 10-1 record on CFB "Big" Paid Selections since early September. We did drop 2 half-unit Freebies, but that still left us with a net gain of close to 2 units on Saturday.
Sunday, we came right back with more success, hitting on our 2* NFL GOW with the Atlanta Falcons, and splitting the two NFL 1* plays on Minnesota and Seattle. We added a half-unit NBA winner on the Spurs, putting roughly 2.5 units in the wallet.
That puts the weekend at a gain of close to 4.5 units, a much needed START to the rebound from last week's flaming turd of a losing skid.
Today:
This week it's time to point our earphones towards the
NFL Weekly MegaCast, the biggest podcast in the history of Pregame. Are you missing out?
Pro Features: Things were rolling when the profile focused on the Weekly Package, so we'll go back to that. Last week was all bad luck. It's cheap, it's relatively short term commitment, it's the 7-day package!
And, of course, the daily package -- I am head over heels for Monday Night Football this week, and haven't been this geeked up for a value spot since back in the first 2-3 weeks of the season!
Now, read the damn blog...
Sports Wagering: NBA
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat with a total of N/A;
We'll keep this one pretty short and pretty sweet. Be very, very careful fading the Heat the next couple games. Why? Word has it that Miami had a players-only meeting where all the guys got their frustrations out, owned up to the slow start, and decided to play harder and with a greater purpose. And that scares me a little bit. The Hawks had a similar meeting earlier this week, and have since rattled off 3 straight blowouts. If Miami is set to the do same, I don't want to step in front of that freight. Of course, it could be a lot of puffery, so I'm definitely not saying it's the right time to get behind Miami, just put the fade train on hold for a little bit. It's not really a look-ahead or letdown for either team, and it's not really a weird scheduling spot or rivalry. Put all that as a wash, and that meeting potentially looms large on what might actually not be quite a crazy line, just considering how the Heat have stunk, lately. Tiny lean to MIAMI and the UNDER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A;
The Hornets had their letdown game off the 4-game west coast trip, and the Spurs spanked them throughout the second half of Sunday afternoon's tilt. The best part about this game? The Thunder played their back-to-back in the evenings, while New Orleans played in the afternoon on Sunday. So, in some ways, the Hornets should be a little more spry. In other ways, though, the Hornets seem to be leveling off a little bit after a tremendous start. The Thunder don't really cover on defense the way the Spurs do, though they certainly can score. I feel like, to some small degree, the value in this game is probably going to be in the total. Oklahoma City had been playing some high scoring games before faltering a tad in Houston. We know New Orleans doesn't want to get into a running match with teams, since their strength is an ability to score in the half-court (thanks to Chris Paul) better than almost all of their opponents. A big game like this one, with both teams a little tired makes me think we'll see some conservative play, and after an awful defensive effort in the second half against the Spurs, I believe New Orleans will ratchet it up on defense and focus on not turning the ball over. A cautious game lends itself to a small HORNETS lean and UNDER lean.
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks (-9.5) with a total of 197;
I still can't get on board with the Mavericks at home. I know they beat the Heat (sounds like an advertisement for an Air Conditioning company), but Dallas does have a track record of playing UP to certain competition at home, and then slipping past lesser teams. Just look at Dallas's various marks. They're a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road, 2-5 ATS at home. The two home games they covered? The opener, and the Heat. In between, they failed to cover against the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Celtics (though they did win this one), Hornets (another SU win), Sixers, Bulls and Pistons. There were a few pushes in there, depending on the line, but the fact remains that they cover at home when they get the juices flowing, and a packed house hating LeBron for 48 minutes got the team fired up. This is a bit of a letdown. The Rockets and the Wolves in the next two, and Dallas, off a stretch of games where they played 7 of 8 teams with winning records, will find it hard to get back up for this one. The Rockets have a tiny bit of momentum, too, winning at home over the Thunder, and any good news is something for this team, right? Houston is tough to trust, but the possible mental lapse for Dallas seems pretty big in the next 2 games. Lean to HOUSTON and the UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A;
Utah, with that workmanlike attitude, just keeps stomping. They beat the Lakers, then they still had the fortitude to travel to LA and beat the Clippers over the weekend. This is often a tough spot for road teams, traveling from California back into the altitude, but this time Utah has to do it. They do have a little more time than usual to acclimate, since their Sunday contest was in the afternoon (the Lakers get the evening spotlight, after all), so the line adjustment for back-to-back might be more than necessary. Also, by all indications, Andrew Bogut will not be making this trip to Utah, so Milwaukee is going to have to rely on pure shooting to win. I keep trying to convince myself that Milwaukee is going to be the way to go in this game, but Utah has the look of one of those teams that is just going to keep steamrolling until someone figures out a way to stop them. They might be the Hawks from a few years back, or the Bucks from last year...a team that people expected to take a step back without Boozer, but instead just keeps getting stronger. I hate to say it, but Utah is good enough to cover almost every night. Being relentless is one of the biggest weapons in ATS marks. Lean to the JAZZ and the UNDER.