Dan Bebe's NFL Week 11 Public Perception Lines

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Dan Bebe's NFL Week 11 Public Perception Lines

Prelude: Same prelude as last week, just a scheduling note: with NBA Blogs coming out nightly, I'll likely go back to adding all the games with early lines on Sunday or Monday, and all the games with lines that come out later in the week on Wednesday or Thursday. So, gone are the days of adding 3 NFL updates every 24 hours -- we'll just fire out the games in 2 big waves, and go to town on 'em.

Pro Notes:

1) NFL -- SUNDAY ALL ACCESS PASS with GAME OF THE WEEK -- 9-3 on "BIG" NFL Plays -- managed to nail the 2* GOW on the Broncos last week, but came up short on the smaller plays. Get 'em all with the ALL ACCESS or just the best play with the single-game package!

2) CFB -- CFB GAME Of The WEEK -- Don't look now, but we've won EVERY College Saturday since Week 3! Very, very quietly, we've hit 9 straight CFB "Big" Saturday plays, and we've won 8 consecutive Saturdays, overall! Pretty awesome, I'd say.

3) NBA --At the time of my typing, we've hit a ridiculous 13 NBA plays in a row! So, with that in mind, a quick promo on the season pass: on average, we'll have about 1.5 plays per day, and given the season is roughly 180 days, and the SEASON PASS is just $495, you're looking at an investment of LESS THAN $2 per play! If you buy the plays individually, it will probably run about $3,000, so...GET THE SEASON PASS - it's the best deal at Pregame.

Week 9 Recap and Lessons Learned: Trust the system!

I'll repeat it: trust the system!

I committed a cardinal sin this last weekend, and one you can best believe won't happen again! I changed a play at the last minute because of irrelevant news. I don't want to go into details, but it's so important to stick to your guns, if you know damn well your guns work!

We all can be human sometimes, and I succumbed to listening to too many voices, so this week it's time to head into my hole, put on my headphones, and get it done without any noise. No more treading water. We've been hovering at roughly 8 units up on the year (bouncing between 7 and 11 for the last 4 weeks), so it's time to make the adjustments, and be a big boy.

What did you guys learn?

Sports Wagering: NFL

  • hope you get to feeling better Dan...are you doing the Thursday and Friday NFL and CFB podcasts this week?

  • Was going to do 'em all the last few days....and then I got sick as a dog.

    Might just have to skip a week.  Sorry guys.

  • oke doke...where are the breakdowns?

    You're not posting those anymore?

  • Hey VB -

    Unfortunately, I have to be a little cryptic on this one, but suffice it to say that I had a play all set to go, and got talked out of it.  Cardinal sin.

  • I committed a cardinal sin this last weekend, and one you can best believe won't happen again! I changed a play at the last minute because of irrelevant news. I don't want to go into details, but it's so important to stick to your guns, if you know damn well your guns work!


    Can you please provide details.  This could be a 'learning opportunity' for us all.  I know the tendency for most people is to react and sometimes to over-react to every bit of news.  The more we can learn, the better we can cap in the future...

  • DBjr,

    Get tested for 'strep-throat'.  I had something similar back in July.  Couldn't even swallow my saliva and the pain at night was really bad in my throat.  Doctor gave me some anti-biotics and it went away pretty quickly....

    In any case, hope you feel better soon

  • Hope you feel better Dan,

    As for what we can take away from week 10, it is clear that betting against over-reactions is quite proftable. DAL was blown away in GB, the line became unbeleivably inflated against the NYG and the Cowboys cover easily. Patriots were embarrassed by the Browns and this inflated the line in the Steelers game to around -4.5.-5 (would have been around -3 if NE had beat CLE). The Pats then go on to lay a beat down on the 'great' Steelers defense. MIN has a huge comeback against the Cards and everyone thinks they are back on track. The 3-5 Vikes end up as a road favorite against a 5-3 Bears team and proceed to be dominated throughout the game.

    Look for the Cowboys and Patriots to have inflated lines this week, especially since their opponents, DET & IND, looked less than impressive this past Sunday.

  • Morning guys!

    Thanks for doing some posting even before I added writeups -- this is a nice time, I think, to reflect on last week and try to take a few things away, and this is a nice start.

    Bad news for me, though...I appear to have caught a cold or flu...can barely swallow to the point where sleeping was nearly impossible.

  • iTS not only about picking your spots,its about picking your times.nfl tough right now but a couple guys hit GOY.patience,patience and patience.I did,nt like the card today but made some plays anyway,went 1-2-1.2 points I go 3&1.should have just waited till next week and I knew it.which brings us to disipline,only bet games you,re sure of.which brings us to courage,the courage to bet on a obviously inferior team,the courage to bet a lot more on those games you,re sure of.At some point I,ll probably write all this in a blog.

  • Being that I'm still in the football state of mind, i'll just say that I took the same from this week from what I have been seeing for about 2 or 3 weeks now. These lines are pretty darn tough. It seems that if I try to make a "sharp" play, the "square" side covers and if I try to make a "square" play, the "sharp" side covers lol ...The key is picking your spots. I was fortunate to go 3-1 thursday&today with the Ravens, Broncos, Dolphins, and lost with Panthers. But, I also laid off teams like the 9ers and browns which seemed to be the "sharp" side. I also was kicking myself a bit because I could/should have played a team like the seahawks and/or cowboys. So, bottom line is being really careful and just choosing the right spots. It seems a little easier with hindsight of course, but we gotta try to learn from these games from week to week and move forward.

    lol i kind of went all over the place with these thoughts. goes to show how "eff'ed" up the NFL has my head right now lol

    One thing is for sure, at least for me, the NFL is probably the toughest sport to cap.

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