Wow, great research. I was pretty sad to figure out David Carr was not starting in this game. Troy Smith definitely alters my handicap and I may now pass on the game. For a team to forego therir backup QB in favor of a QB that has gotten no reps before this week definitely says something.
PIT/NO - This is my favorite game of the week. NO is getting great line value in my opinion. I had the line at NO -3 +100/+105. Besides the line value, NO is coming off of an embarrassing HOME loss to CLE in McCoy's second start. PIT is definitely one of the top 3 teams in this league, but the Saints are getting disrespected by this line and they know they have to show up and play their best game of the season to win. I've faded the Saints in every game this season becasue they have been so overvalued, but this perception has changed and they are now undervalued for the first time this season. If the Saints still believe they are one of the better teams in the league, they will show it on Sunday night.
That's AWESOME research, Slugger!
The exact reason these forums are unmatched anywhere
I did do a little more digging into this. Apparently OC Mike Johnson worked with Troy Smith when Johnson was on staff at the Ravens. While Johnson was still QB coach, he lobbied SF vigorously to trade for Troy Smith mid-season. So it sounds like the OC has some more familiarity with what Troy Smith can do well than I initially expected. I'm not sure if that alters my lean to DEN in this situation but I thought I'd pass it along.
Panda, that's a great question -- I was actually pretty set to bet Denver this week if david carr was getting the start, but this throws a wrinkle into the mix. I just think it's a new thing to gameplan for...also, Denver's horrific loss has played a small role in moving that line towards SF
Love the turnover stuff, Jeff! regressing to the mean in the cards, perhaps?
Question about the Line movement on the DEN@SFO (in london) game. Singletary just announced that mid-season acquisition Troy Smith will start on Sunday. Up until today, he's had zero reps with the first team and did not go through training camp. The offense would be hit or miss with Alex Smith running it and he was familiar with it, I suspect it is going to get worse as the staff reduces the size of the playbook to something Troy can handle on short notice.
And yet....when this was announced, the line has moved in Niners favor to -1. WTF?! McDaniels will surely have his team fired up to improved off of last week's embarrassing loss to the raiders. Why is this line moving in favor of Troy Smith-led Niners?
Would love to get your thoughts and congrats on the start of the NBA... very exciting.
NFL Wk 8 Turnover Analysis: (based on L3 wks only)
V & ratio @ H & ratio, then TO ratio difference
(only diffs of 4 or greater listed)
GB 0 @ NJ +4 GB -4
BF -1 @ KC +3 BF -4
JX -9 @ DA -1 JX -8
TB +2 @ AZ -3 AZ -5
MN -3 @ NE +6 MN -9
TN +8 @ SD -8 SD -16 (highest diff this year !!!!!!!!)
PT +2 @ NO -7 NO -9
HO +3 @ IN -3 IN -6
Solid line analysis, Hawaii50 -- I can tell you're really picking up on a lot of key stuff..love it!!
I hate to say it, but there is TONS of value on San Diego this week. Most of their errors were rookie mistakes and I just don't see them losing at home for the rest of the year. After the butt whoopin Tennessee gave Philly, the oddsmaker still has the hook on the Chargers. That is a strong indication in itself.
I hear ya, Mikey...Chargers are tough, tough, tough to take, but those are the teams that can often net you the value...I actually really like a lot of games this week, so need to do some narrowing
I was really hoping that Seattle line would be higher as well. But I think the Seahawks D is decent enough to keep them in the game. But with their road struggles (excluding Chicago), I would like to look at the under there. I haven't been playing as many totals this year, but I could see a 20-17 game either way.
I'd also love to play on the Chargers. At the same time, how many lumps can you take from the same team. I think Tenn is publicly overrated going into this game. But I'd hate to be burnt again by SD. Especially after tthey already cost me their season wins bet at 10.5. D'oh
Just went ahead and added EVERY OTHER GAME WRITEUP, since I'll be busy working on NBA blogs all week, I can't be dropping a few games into this blog every day. Just throwing it all in there!
Those are probably the 2 strongest lines on the board, behind maybe cincy being -2.5 at home now...
TEN/SD - Probably a good idea to stay away from this game. I would definitely not touch the Titans, especially considering the line has gone up to -4 at some books.
DET/WAS - WAS is one the luckiest teams in the NFL and they have trouble scoring more than 17 pts. The one thing DET has, especially with Stafford coming back, is a solid offense that can put up points. They are also coming off a bye and the line is moving in their direction.
I know you guys are right, but DAMN that team is getting huge value because of stupid mistakes. They simply have to stop making them, don't they?