Little Sally Duncan: NBA RoundUp for 3/25

Pregame Blogs

Pregame Blogs
Videos are just the START of the conversation. Each show has a dedicated blog post with show notes, links, and pics. Plus, the host and guests continue the conversation in the comments section!

Little Sally Duncan: NBA RoundUp for 3/25

Won't make any bones about it, we got CREAMED on our Spurs play as San Antonio was dominated so thoroughly in the second half, I'm pretty sure Tim Duncan just put himself in line for the next available scrotal implant - those bad boys are feeling a little small right now.

No bad beats yesterday, just total domination by the Lakers, and we were on the Spurs when everyone besides Ginobili seemed to be content just waiting for the next opponent.

We did manage to coast to an easy Non-Premium pair of winners on a Gerald Wallace "Over" Prop Bet, and the New Jersey/Sactown Under, so that stemmed the tide a bit on the Spurs loss, but the one that mattered was the one in the toilet, and I'll definitely be the first to admit it was not the right side.

I realize it's tournament time over in College ball, so I don't expect a ton of NBA action today, especially with only 3 games, but the blog will be here just the same, as will a Top Play, that I'm pretty sure I've isolated already!

Sports Wagering

Heat @ Bulls - Chicago by 1 with a total of 189.5. First thing that jumps out at me is that this game is actually pretty huge. A win by the Bulls could pull them back into the East's true playoff picture, especially with Toronto currently getting whipped by the Jazz. Obviously, long way to go in that game, but as I write this, the Bulls are far from eliminated, and they seem to have gotten some of their tenacity back. Joakim Noah is back, but not fully there, but the key note is that Derrick Rose is playing like a man possessed. Each team has won their home games in this series so far, and I'm not seeing anything to make me think that's going to change. We know who is going to play on the Chicago side, Jermaine O'Neal is questionable for Miami, and it's going to have to be an awful lot from Dwyane Wade if the Heat are going to win this game. Interestingly, the Heat hosted the Bulls 2 weeks ago, when Chicago was spiraling and playing without most of their key pieces. The Bulls weren't defending, they were trying to get out on the break and win games with easy buckets, and it wasn't working. Now, they're back to defending, and this is a game of two teams that both play a particularly swarming style of defense, and I don't think it's any coincidence that the total of the meeting 2 weeks ago was set at 191.5, went over by 12 points, and now this one opens up 2 points lower. I think Chicago plays outstanding defense, making life miserable for the Heat, and I think the first team to 90 wins. Leans to Bulls and Under.

Clippers @ Rockets - Houston by 6.5 with a total of 208. Here's a completely uninteresting game - a Clippers team that mailed it in about 3 weeks ago, and a Houston team that might be about ready to call it a season, as well. When you have a game with BOTH teams uninterested, you're left between the old rock and hard place. Do you put yourself on the line and try to pick a side? I would say that the wise man would absolutely not. In fact, I know it's just a 3-game card, and skipping a game would seem like heresy, but I'm not even going to break the side down on this game. That's how badly I want you guys to avoid it. The total, however, is interesting, if only because we have two teams that don't give a crap. Do they just run layup drills all night, or completely lack focus, miss their cuts, clank jumpers and so on and so forth. Well, the Clippers have been giving up well over 100 points in almost every game over the last month, holding only the Bucks under 100 in March. Houston loves to play an up-tempo game, and though they've been having some issues scoring, I think coming home, some of the youngsters are going to want to show up and make some noise down the stretch. I think we might actually have some value on the Over here, since the line looks pretty damn high, and I think people might be scared off by each team's recent offensive struggles. Well, NBA players are good, and they can score against a team not playing any defense. Yes, even the Clippers.

Mavericks @ Blazers - Portland by 3 with a total of 192. Here are those damn dirty Mavs, looking pretty awful, at times, at home, then showing flashes of brilliance on the road...or are they? The Mavs' last road game was in New Orleans, and they completely pooped out after a decent 1st quarter. So, how much will the hostile environment known as the Rose Garden take its toll on Dallas? I'm interested to see how the Mavericks respond, considering the Blazers beat them twice, both times in Dallas, earlier this year. Is this a situation where the Blazers just match up extremely well with Dallas? That's possible, since Portland has the wing defenders that give Dirk more trouble than almost anyone else. It's funny, really, when you take a peek at those match-ups -- Dirk handles slow big men by toasting them, and can shoot over the littler, quick guys, but someone like a Batum is just the type of long, agile defender that can force Dirk into tough shots, and defend him off the dribble. Plus, Andre Miller can match Jason Kidd's strength, and Brandon Roy should be able to do whatever he wants with whoever Dallas puts on him. Dallas has not been particularly strong avenging home losses, so I don't know if we can use that stat, but at the same time, we've seen how Dallas actually seems to be a stronger team on the road. The fact that they're getting 3 points here is a testament to how much the Blazers have jumped in the power rankings, and they're equals to the Mavs now. Very intriguing. This isn't a particularly good or bad situational spot for either team, though the Mavs are probably the "value". Still, I don't trust 'em, home or road, right now, and I lean Blazers in front of the frenetic home crowd, and I have this weird gut feeling that we see some hot shooting. I think this total is close to accurate, but I have a slight lean to the Over.
  • NEW BLOG LINK - I WILL BE MAKING ALL POSTS OVER THERE FROM HERE ON!

    http://bit.ly/cXYJMd

  • Alright, fellas, the POP game is upon us!

  • oh, btw, Bebe... Penguins is my friend... recruited to you via me!

  • That's a really bad beat, pkm! I feel for ya. I've been there before, man. Those are the times you have to say 'screw it' and come out firing again tomorrow.

  • At first look, the Denver/Toronto O/U of 217 seems on the high end to me ..

  • This is f******* bs. i had the over on the portalnd/dallas game which was at 185 with 2 and half minutes left. I missed the 192 total by 2 points. Dallas has 2 field goals in the last 9 minutes.

    Heck, if I didn''t have bad luck, I'd have no luck at all.

    Sorry guys, just steamin after a day full of losses: cornell, Chicago, Syracuse ..............

  • Tomorrow should be interesting. Lots of big spreads in the NBA, and a few teams who have look to have given up for the season. I'll be looking forward to your writeups, Dan. Do you do those tonight, or do you put them out tomorrow?

  • wooohoo!  props!  only thing i jumped on tonight... so 1-0!  hahaha too funny, stupid long 10 hr day at work

  • Woohoo for Prop bets!

  • As I always say... JAZZ AND OVER!

  • man... good day to stay away from betting... all my leans except portland would've lost... but then again, no time to cap.

  • Nice hit, prop bet master! Always better to end the night with a win. That is for sure.

  • Haha, yeah, got a little lucky with this prop bet, but hey, the dude was 7 for 9 from the field to start the quarter...he had his shots, he missed 'em, and we're going to sneak off with another prop bet winner...now 18-4!!

  • Oh yeah, you played a big card tonight, huh Juan? Well you can get back 5 units in a day or two, no problemo.

  • I can't bet hockey, since I can't really watch it...I can't believe how low-scoring this second half has been.  This portland/dallas game looked like a SURE "over" at halftime with 114, but just NO scoring this half as Dallas went ice cold from the field.