Haha you may not say it was but i do! haha just one of those days, gotta do a little more work tonight to find some good plays tmr and get back to my 9-0 win streak before today!
Well guys, I almost don't want to switch over to the new blog, since this one is at 322 replies, and almost 2,000 views in just one day, but I'm afraid it's about that time...
btw -- just watched The Hangover. pretty damn funny. Ken Jeong "suck on these little Chinese nuts" (also the King from Role Models) is quickly becoming one of my favorite cameo actors. that dude is hysterical.
dan your right.. I took sac and phx for same units.. 1-1.. took okc and chi same units 1-1 also.. then lost to NOH.. anyway still have some left from my win yesterday on Toronto.. I just wished I just took 1 team which is sac.. But just like someone from here, I'm too afraid to bet on a single game only.. waiting for your blog Dan..
I know what you mean - I stopped betting MLB a long time ago. That is the true grind.
Haha, yep, there's always a balance to strike.
For instance, today, Orlando was clearly a good play, and I avoided it because I was pissed about the Hornets loss -- BAD reason to skip a play.
However, New Orleans was a seemingly obvious play that lost, and my lean on Bucks was an extremely unpleasant choice that covered, so it's all about finding that middle ground.
well, having both orlando and the under (i don't usually play both a side and a total on the same game but i have side on 3rd and final end of 3 game rec par) that quarter just couldn't have gone much better.
very good point, Dan. and Geronimo, I appreciate your thoughts as well. i just don't know about trusting my gut either. done that several times with women and ... well ... those didn't always turn out so well.
i will say though, Dan, I do think that there is such a thing as trying too hard to find the non-obvious play. i know you've got to watch out for vegas setting a trap (the ones that look really obvious) but, sometimes those plays that look like good plays are actually good plays.
Uplay - I wasn't saying it was idiotic, I just think it will go 50/50 in the long run, which will slowly lose money, but shit, I'd take 1-1 today!
Geronimo - you think this is a grind, wait til we get to MLB!! Hahaha.
Wishing I had taken my strong leans to Orlando and Under here right now.....
haha just btw i was one of the idiots who "bet both of those games"...ha
Dan, I agree with you. Much more hot and cold with other sports, especially football, than with the NBA. But damn if the NBA ain't a grind...
P.S. Nice tempo this half, and nice play for Orlando!
Guevones - I know what you mean. I have talked myself out of many winning bets based on strange lines, line movements, or other people's opinions. I think it is important to remember that one of the books' primary goals is to get even money on both sides. Sometimes that results in lines that one might think are shady.
Personally, I think its best to trust your gut if you like a play. When I come across one of those circumstances that make my play look weak - strange line/movement, other people's opinions - I will bet no more than one unit on the play, and often just do a half-unit. When those circumstances go in my favor I consider betting more than one unit.
Just wanted to give my take because I've been in that situation many times before.
I think those games, much like the ones Geronimo referred to, will also even out. Don't stress yourself out about skipping that play, because I definitely feel that in the long run the obvious ones will be WORSE than 50/50.
I'm honestly a little surprised at how much money books seemed to be getting on a slumping Phoenix team, in terms of the game today (so you were right, I was indeed giving the public too much credit in thinking they'd want to fade the Suns), but what about Charlotte today? That one looked plain as day and Sacramento came back from 25, so what if you bet BOTH of the ones that seemed obvious? 1-1.
Now, I realize that Charlotte was "marquee" team in that game (despite the Morrison system), but I think both of these games are pretty similar. A strong home team against a struggling road club. We just need to look deeper to find the true value, so dont' get down on yourself for passing up something that looked obvious because as soon as you bet that same game tomorrow, it will lose.
Powerhouse questions from two of my G's.
I honestly believe that crazy games like that one will even out in the long term, and it's those games that are basically the coin-flips. Assuming you hit 50/50 on those, and get a few easy winners, you're up over the requisite 53% we need to make money.
I think I agree with you in that the NBA is probably the hardest sport to go on a winless run in. For instance, the 7-1 run I had going before today's loss is very strong, and something like 10-0 is probably among the longest you'll see all year. Similarly, though, I think the NBA is very good at tempering losses. The hot streaks and cold streaks are usually relatively short, and while it does limit the monster runs, it also eliminates the debilitating losses. Does that make sense?