hey everyone,just bet sac. and utah on the moneyline in a two team parley,5 for 250.earlier this year bet sac.at utah,+1500 and won,still kicking myself for not betting more that night.anyways thought i'd post it in case miracles happen but would'nt really be a miracle.sac. might snesk up on s.a. and utah tired of getting beat in la.
hey dan and mike,there is one other game where the totals line moved up,gs&n.j from 218 to 218.5,I had 219 wrote down on my card,what do you think about that.i've allready pulled the trigger on g.s.+1
hey tony,admire your knowledge and loved your last post on your football picks,won big time on the giants as i liked dallas up to that point.atlanta would seem to be a good play based on your observations but 11 points is a lot of points in the nba these days and the opening line dropped 1/2 point to 10.5.the bulls though are terrible so i just dont know.but i too like the hawks,would like to wait and see the line movement but should be a blowout.need to see if this is the bulls last rd.game before going home as it seems a lot of teams go all out to win that last rd.game before going home,especially when they have lost most or all their games
A link to Wednesday's podcast discussion thread, since I didn't have a new NBA blog (I know, my first missed day since the season started!)
Will be away from the computer most of the day today, then back tomorrow for my usual all-day sports-a-thon.
When tracking reverse line movement, it's extremely important to do 1 of 2 things. Either (a) be like VegasRunner and know exactly which outfits are hitting which games, and why, or (b) be like cappers without his connections and contacts.
Since most of us are in the (b) category, we need to watch the public betting percentages, as well as the line moves. Sometimes the outfits will buy a line back late in the day, and sometimes we'll get caught by surprise, but a lot of the time, we can kind of see it coming.
For instance, last week, we saw a series of NBA games going Over the posted total. As a result, the lines opened higher, and the sharps immediately bought the Under, sensing added value from the recent string of Overs. Over the course of the day, though, those same sharps did their full handicapping of the game, and often bought back the original play, if they felt the Under was not a value pick. As handicappers ourselves, when we saw EVERY line move down off the opening line, we were able to determine that the sharps were buying the lines down NOT because they handicapped it that way, but because they felt the lines were inflated to begin with. Thus, when we do our OWN handicapping, if we liked an Over, we would not hesitate to take it DESPITE the reverse line move, because the sharps hadn't yet taken their true position on a game.
On the flip side, if one game out of 10 on a particular hypothetical card moves 4 or 5 points off the opening total, you can be pretty sure the sharps are taking their true position. That takes a lot of money to move a line that far.
hey dan,decided to keep my mouth shut,listen and learn as the nba has been kicking my ass lately.reverse line movement,does that mean the difference between the opening line and the opening line posted by the sportsbook? example dallas opened yesterday at -4.5 and bookmaker opened at dallas-3.5.how to know the sharps did'nt drive thst opening line down so they coulb buy back later i guess the hardest part of it as you would have to figure the public would be on dallas as i was
Sorry about the delay! While I'm at the Winter Meetings (just one more day...Wednesday), I'm pretty much away from the computer all day!
I actually think stuff like that, if UNREPORTED, can be a great handicapping tool. As soon as the public gets their hands on it, the value goes out the window, but if you're a quick, clever sort, you can use key info like plane departure issues as a little bit of a helper. I'm going to try to check out those lines first thing in the a.m., and I'll try to get a blog out right around the same time as the podcast.
Looking at today's leans...
The Under in CHA/DEN was a winner
Over in TOR/MIN was a loser
Leans on MIL and the Under were both winners
Leans on Grizz and Under were 1-1
Leans on NJ and Under were 1-1
Leans to PHX and Under were both winners
Under in LAC/ORL was a winner.
If I had bet every lean today, I would have gone 8-3. Damn!
Hey Dan, great stuff again. Indiana came through for the podcast play of the day.
Question about Wednesdays Bulls/Hawks game. Line looks like it's opening around 11. Is there any value there. I know ATL has been inconsistent in recent games, but I have a slight lean towards them. The Bulls lost a close heart breaker at home, to the worst team in the NBA on Tuesday, then have to travel to another city to play a team on 3 days rest. Will the bulls be motivated and energized enough to stay in the game? or will the Hawks blow out this tired and defeated team? Is the line too high?
Additionally, I drive past the United Center every day home from work, and can tell you that Tuesday night into Wednesday the weather in Chicago is horrible. I can only assume it will take the Bulls much longer than expected to get to the airport and their is no guarantee their flight will leave on time. This will put them in Atlanta very late and very tired. Does this sort of thing make a difference? If so, how much stock do you put into information like this, as a handicapper?
Thanks again for the great posts and show. Keep it up
Right on man...I love the NBA bc you can fade a team for 3-4 games then bet with them the next 3-4. Never a dull moment!
Anyway, leaning towards the Bobcats +4 (now)
Really liking Dallas -3.5 (even though my initial lean was Phoenix) but after checking into some things Dallas seems like a smart bet
Let's put some together and make some winners buddy!
Today's podcast, straight to the audio part!
Today's podcast discussion thread:
Good morning to you! Glad to see you had a nice winner with Knicks yesterday! That would have definitely been a play of mine if I had more time on the internet yesterday to get my final confirmation.
Today and tomorrow will likely be similar to yesterday, where I'll post my "strongest leans" right before gametime, since I will be at the Baseball Winter Meetings most of the day.
The Nuggets/Charlotte game does smell like a trap, but I'm just not sure I can bet against Denver right now, even if it feels like a trap.
I'll be spending some time this afternoon trying to get my strongest leans up, and I'll post 'em then!
Nuggets really looking like a trap game! For the oddsmakers to come out with Nugs -2.5 what do you think they are saying? Charlotte outright?
This is like deja vu bc I know we've touched up on this subject before and got a winner so interested to see where this line goes.
Also like Memphis +7, Chicago -6.5
Interested to see your plays (if any)!