Ben Burns

Bad Beats: Biggest travesty in Chicago wasn't C. Johnson's non-catch

Ben Burns — Tue, 14 Sep 2010 21:49:00 GMT

by Ben Burns

*Editor's Note: Ben went 7-1 in Week 1, his only loser was the Bears. He's now 14-3 his last 17 NFL picks. Read more about that game below.

Nothing went right in Chicago's 19-14 win over the Lions on Sunday.

The Bears should have covered the spread and the total should have gone over. Shoulda, woulda, coulda - welcome to an NFL season guaranteed to produce a plethora of bad beats.

Detroit moneyline players are probably saying, ‘What about us?' But anyone who laid the 6.5 with the Bears and/or took Over 44.5 has much more reason to complain.

Most of the aftermath has been centered on Calvin Johnson's potential game-winning touchdown reception that was overturned because he did not complete the process of the catch. You can watch it here. http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d81a77070/Controversial-call-on-Megatron-non-TD

According to Mike Pereira, the former head of the NFL referees and now an analyst for FOX, and Tennessee coach and co-chairman of the rules committee Jeff Fisher, it was the correct call. But you have to wonder whether it would have been allowed if it had been a meaningless garbage touchdown rather than game-changing one-a meaningless garbage touchdown that should have pushed the game over the total.

Nevertheless, for anyone who played the Bears -6.5, it shouldn't have mattered. Chicago should have taken care of business early in the fourth quarter, after recovering a fumble at the Detroit one. Trailing 14-13, Chicago took four cracks from the one and failed to score. If they would have scored, they likely would have gone for two and could have made it 21-14. Alas, much to the chagrin of Bears and over bettors, the scored remained 14-13, Lions.

Eventually, the Bears grabbed the lead later in the fourth on a touchdown pass to Matt Forte, his second TD reception of the game. They went for two and failed, making the score 19-14 with 1:32 to play. In bad beats reality, it should have been 28-14, sealing the deal for the Bears and likely making the officials not as nit-picky on Johnson's ensuing catch.

In the end, the Bears should have won 28-21, covering the spread and eclipsing the over. Instead, bettors on the right side of this game are left saying shoulda, woulda, coulda.

David Payne wrote this on behalf of Ben Burns

Total Bias - Week 2

Ben Burns — Fri, 12 Sep 2008 06:16:00 GMT

The 2008 regular season began with a defensive affair between the Giants and the Redskins. The defending champs prevailed by a score of 16-7. That set the stage for what would prove to be a relatively low-scoring Sunday. When the dust settled, eight of 13 Sunday games had finished 'under' the total.

Both Monday night games went over the projected total leaving under bettors with a modest 9-7 advantage heading into Week 2, with the games averaging slightly more than 40 points each.

The Week 2 board features totals ranging from the mid-30s to the high 40s. The Monday Night game between the Cowboys and Eagles has the highest number, currently 46.5 or 47 at most books. Both teams put up big points in Week 1. Not surprisingly, the Raiders and Chiefs, a pair of teams which struggled to score, have the lowest total. The number came out at 34.5 but quickly climbed to 36. I've posted one opinion below. Enjoy the games and best of luck.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (37 1/2)

Opinion: Under

These teams both saw their opener finish above the total. The Bucs' game against the Saints snuck above the total with 44 combined points, while the Falcons combined with the Lions for a whopping 54. Those results have helped keep tonight's total above the key number of 37, which I feel has provided us with solid value. A look at the recent meetings in this series show that all four games from the past two seasons produced 40 points or less. Those four games averaged just 29.5 points.

Give the Falcons credit for their opening day win. Everything went right and rookie QB Matt Ryan even threw a touchdown on his very first pass. That being said, Ryan and the Falcons will likely find things quite a bit tougher in their first road game.

The Bucs have gone under the total seven their last 11 home games and they've held six of their last nine opponents at Raymond James Stadium to 14 points or less. Additionally, Tampa Bay has seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight home games played in the month of September. Looking back further and we find the under at a profitable 38-20 in Tampa Bay's last 58 September games overall.

The Bucs ran the ball effectively last week but Gruden became impatient with the rushing attack a little too early and they ended up throwing more passes than he probably would have liked. With Garcia banged-up, Brian Griese is expected to get the nod as the starting quarterback this week.

Regardless, I expect the Bucs to feature a larger percentage of run plays than they did last week. As for the Falcons, they threw just 13 passes last week to go along with their 42 plays on the ground. With Ryan still learning the offense and considering last week's success, we should see another heavy dose of the run. As you know, running plays generally help to keep the clock moving.

The Bucs have shown a tendency to play relatively low-scoring games when listed as favorites. The under is 81-51-1 (61%) the last 133 times Tampa Bay's been favored. Look for this contest to prove low scoring with the under improving to 16-5 the last 21 times that the Falcons played away from Atlanta. Consider the under at 37 or better.

Bad "Bullpen" Beats

Ben Burns — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:57:00 GMT

I received several emails from readers this week which detailed various "bad beats." It was a difficult choice about which one/s to print, as each story had merit. I decided to include both from a Canadian player named "Derek S." Derek's tale took the prize, largely because he had two heart-breakers on the same evening. Both were underdogs which looked good nearly the entire way. However, in each case he was going against the top team in its league and in each case his bullpen let him down. Remember, if you've got a "bad beat" that you'd like to share, please email support@pregame.com with the details. Let's take a closer look at Derek's two heartbreakers.

August 28
Rangers at Angels

Naturally, the Angels were heavily favored for this game. The line ranged from -170 to -180. However, it was the underdog Rangers who jumped off to an early 4-0 start against Jon Garland in the top of the first inning. Texas maintained its lead the entire way and had a 5-2 advantage heading into the bottom of eighth. The Angels have the best record in the American League for a reason though. Keyed by a pinch-hit three run double from Juan Rivera, they put five runs on the board. That gave them a 7-5 lead, heading to the ninth. Of course, with Francisco Rodriguez coming out of the bullpen that was 'all she wrote' for the Rangers. Rodriguez worked a scoreless ninth, converting his 51st save in 56 tries. After the game, Rivera was quoted as saying: "We saw the rally monkey come out, and knew it was time..."

August 28
Phillies at Cubs

This matchup featured Cole Hamels for the Phillies vs. Ryan Dempster for the Cubs. While Hamels is a very good pitcher, Dempster is also having a very good year. Playing at home, where they've been superb all season, the Cubs came in as a -135 favorite. The Phillies managed a run in the top of the first. Note that they left the bases loaded. They maintained that 1-0 lead until the bottom of the fifth inning when the Cubs tied things up. The Phillies immediately answered though, scoring three in their half of the sixth to go up 4-1. It looked very much like they might spoil Chicago manager Lou Pinnela's 65th birthday, as the Phillies carried that 4-1 lead into the bottom of the eighth inning. Like the Angels in the AL, the Cubs have been this year's best National League team for good reason though.

With Hamels out of the game, the Cubs went to work on the Philadelphia bullpen. Ryan Madson started the inning and promptly gave up three hits (home run, double, single) without recording an out. Chad Durbin relieved him and walked Derrick Lee to load the bases. You can probably guess what happened next. Yep, grand-salami time! Aramis Ramirez came up and sent a 1-0 pitch deep into the seats. Philadelphia center fielder Shane Victorino hardly moved as the ball left the bat and the rest was history. With the Cubs up 6-4, Kerry Wood came in and closed the door in the ninth. It's been a familiar story for Hamels, who surely wished that Charlie Manuel allowed him to pitch one more inning. For the season, he has a stellar 3.13 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Pitching for one of the better hitting clubs in the National League, with those numbers, one would think he'd have a lot of wins to his credit. He's only 11-8 though. After the game, Lou Pinella would comment: "What a great come-from-behind win. Just a great win. I mean, exciting. This place really got loud. ... I don't know if it was the loudest I've heard it, but let me tell you what, it was loud."

Bad Beats: MLB heartbreakers

Ben Burns — Tue, 26 Aug 2008 14:44:00 GMT

Only three of this week's first 15 NFLX games were decided by three points or less vs. the pointspread. As a group, the Week 3 pointspread winners covered by an average margin of 13.8 points. With the average Week 3 spread being covered by two touchdowns, there weren't as many last second heartbreakers as usual.

Therefore, for this week's edition of "Bad Beats" we'll be looking at a pair of tough losses (for some) from Sunday's baseball slate. We'll be having much bigger football cards from here on out, so there should be plenty of gridiron action to talk about. Remember, if you'd like to see your bad beat stories featured in next week's column, email support@pregame.com and provide the details.

Devil Rays at White Sox

Sunday, August 24

Tampa Bay has broken plenty of bettors' hearts this season, with numerous late inning comeback victories. The Rays' luck temporarily ran out yesterday. On the verge of their first-ever three-game sweep at Chicago and also their first road sweep of an American League team this season, the Rays took a lead into the bottom of the ninth inning. Without injured closer Troy Percival available, Dan Wheeler was called upon to preserve the 4 -3 lead. With two outs there was a play at the plate. Ben Zobrist's throw arrived in plenty of time to get pinch-runner Brian Anderson. However, it skipped off Tampa catcher Shawn Riggans and Anderson was able to score the tying run. That was just the beginning for Tampa Bay bettors though.

Fast forward to the bottom of the 10th inning and we find Chicago's AJ Pierzynski caught in a rundown between second and third base. Even in little league, almost nobody escapes these type of plays, let alone at the major league level. In this case, Pierzynski appeared to be tagged but was awarded third base by second base umpire Doug Eddings, who claimed that Tampa's third baseman Willy Aybar committed interference. The Rays complaints fell on deaf ears and Pierzynski eventually proved to be the winning run.

Interestingly, Eddings and Pierzynski have some previous history together, as they were at the center of a disputed call in the 2005 American League Championship series. You may recall the play. Pierzynski struck out in the ninth inning of that game but Eddings ruled the pitch had bounced in the dirt. The Angels ran off the field. Pierzynski hustled to first. The Sox rallied to win the game and the series.

As bad beats are subjective, Chicago bettors could argue that they actually deserved to win Sunday's game, based on the fact that three of Tampa's five runs were unearned. That would be a valid argument but I had the White Sox and I would still classify it as one of my luckier recent wins. At the very least, I know that if the shoe was on the other foot and I had a ticket on the underdog Rays, I would have felt rather unfortunate. Regardless, it's important to remember that our "lucky" wins are someone else's bad beats.

Dodgers at Phillies

Sunday, August 24

While football remains the king, Sunday night baseball games receive plenty of action. I didn't personally play the Dodgers/Phillies game but I had several friends who did. While never exactly comfortable, Dodger backers felt pretty good the entire way considering their team jumped off to an early lead and their starting pitcher, Hiroki Kuroda, was nearly unhittable.

Kuroda finished having allowed two hits and one run through six complete innings. The Dodgers scored a run in the first inning and the Phillies tied in the fifth. The Dodgers reclaimed the lead (2-1) and carried it all the way to the bottom of the ninth inning. In fact, they were one out away from winning until Pedro Feliz delivered a game-tying single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth. That forced extra innings. It looked liked the Dodgers might bounce back as they loaded the bases with nobody out in the 10th inning but Chad Durbin shut the door right. The next inning, Feliz was again the hero delivering a walkoff three-run homer and sealing a 5-2 victory for Phillies. Bad beat for those who bet Dodgers? That's open for debate and I'll let you make the call. I know the couple of people I talked to who had the Dodgers sure weren't too pleased though!

Total Bias - The Number 37

Ben Burns — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 17:05:00 GMT

The first two weeks of the preseason have seen plenty of points and if the opening game of Week 3 is any indication, we could see some more high-scoring contests this weekend.

Over bettors held a 10-7 advantage after the opening week, including the Hall of Fame game. Week 2 saw them extend their lead, as 10 of 16 games eclipsed the total. Interestingly, it was the days with fewer games which were generally the highest scoring. The days with two or less games (Thursday, Friday, Sunday, Monday) saw the 'over' go 5-1. Including last night's 49'ers/Bears shootout, which sailed above the number with 67 combined points, the 'over' is now 21-13 (61.8%) on the season.

Before looking at this weekend's over/under card, let's check some recent Week 3 stats to see how coaches have been treating the preseason's "dress-rehearsal." Looking back to last preseason and we find that Week 3 was relatively high-scoring with the games producing an average of 41.31 points. The 'over' held a 9-6-1 advantage. However, before jumping blindly on the 'over' bandwagon this weekend, note that the Week 3 scores were significantly lower in each of the previous two years, averaging less than 35.5 points per game. Overall, the 3-year scoring average for Week 3 games from 2005-2007 came in at 37.31 points.

You'll see the number 37 quite regularly during the next several months. In fact, if you've been following the games from an over/under perspective, you've already come across it several times. Two of the Week 1 games produced exactly 37 points and three of the Week 2 games fell exactly on that number. Note that three of the Week 3 games in the last two preseasons (2 in 2006, 1 in 2007) also landed directly on 37.

Knowing that 10 of 16 games produced 37 or more combined points in Week 3 of last preseason, this week's complimentary selection is an 'over.' It comes from a game which opened with an over/under line of 37.5 but which has since fallen below the key number of 37. As always, best of luck and if you can't get at least as good a number as one which has been mentioned, I suggest passing.

Arizona at Oakland OVER (play at 37 or better)

This total opened at 37 or 37.5 but most shops now have it at 36.5. I feel that number is too low for a pair of non-conference foes which combined for 43 points last week. Both teams are hoping for strong games from their young quarterbacks. Former number one pick JaMarcus Russell was fairly solid last week, going 10-of-17 for 75 yards and a touchdown. That was on the road against a tough Tennessee defense which allowed 18.6 points per game last season and less than 200 passing yards per game. I managed a winning ticket with that 'under' in that game (17-16 final) but expect Russell to enjoy more success this week. Not only is he now playing at home, but he'll also be facing an Arizona defense which allowed 24.9 points per game last season and which was below average in defending the pass. Note that Cardinals' safety Antrel Rolle is unlikely to play. While he isn't likely to see much action, it's still worth mentioning that backup QB Andrew Walter has been sharp and appears capable of leading the Oakland offense to some fourth quarter points. The Cardinals put up 27 points at KC last week. They've seen Matt Leinart convert more than 73% of his passes through the first two week, going 14-of-19. Meanwhile, Warner got the start last week and completed six of nine passes while leading the team on a touchdown drive. Naturally, a little quarterback competition is generally healthy when trying to cash a preseason over ticket. Even without receiver Anquan Boldin, Leinart and Warner aren't without weapons.

These teams also faced each other here last preseason. That game finished well above the number with a final score of 27-23, in favor of the Raiders. It was the second highest scoring game of what was otherwise a relatively low-scoring opening week. Don't be surprised if this one proves higher scoring than most are expecting once again. Consider the Over.

Burns' Bad Beats: NFL preseason stings

Ben Burns — Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:02:00 GMT

I have been asked to bring back a column which I used to run, called "Bad Beats." As the name implies, the focus will be on sports betting losses which were particularly hard to swallow.

You know the kind I'm talking about. Everyone does, beginners and seasoned pros alike. These type of agonizing defeats are an unfortunate and inevitable part of wagering. Don't forget that, like beauty, bad beats are in the eye of the beholder. In other words, each time that you experience an unlucky loss, keep in mind that someone else is enjoying a fortunate victory. More importantly, remember that these things have a way of evening themselves out over the longrun. That being said, some gamblers have a tendency to forget about the lucky wins while remembering the unfortunate defeats for much longer.

This will be a weekly feature here and your participation is encouraged. If you'd like to share a story about one of your more excruciating losses, email support@pregamepros.com. Please provide as many details as possible and stick to (recent) football stories only. This week, we'll look at a pair of promising looking 'under' tickets which both went bad in the fourth quarter. As this is the first issue of the year and the term may be new to some, we'll start by defining what a bad beat actually means.

Definition: In the world of sports-betting, the term bad beat refers to a heart-breaking gambling loss, most often occurring when a late score or fluke play changes the betting outcome of the side or total. In poker, bad beat is a term for a hand which lost, even though the cards appeared to be strong. It typically occurs where one player bets the clearly stronger hand and the opposing player makes a poor call that eventually "hits" and wins. In both poker and sports, the term is subjective. Therefore, you'll sometimes find that players/bettors will disagree about whether a particular hand or game was a bad beat.

Carolina at Philadelphia

Thursday, August 14

Under bettors appeared to be looking very good in this one. The field was sloppy and the offenses were even sloppier. The score was 10-0 for Carolina entering the fourth quarter. With a line of +3 or +3.5, those backing the Panthers felt pretty good about their chances. With the offenses having done so little, those with 'under' tickets (line ranged from 35.5 to 36.5) felt even more confident. Everything changed when the Eagles' backups outscored the Panthers' backups by score of 24-3 in the fourth quarter though. The final blow occurred when the Eagles ran back an interception 74 yards for a touchdown with less than 30 seconds to play. Not only did that ensure the pointspread victory by snuffing out the Panthers' drive, it also caused the final score (24-13) to sneak above the total. Tough loss for Carolina. Bad beat for those who took the under.

Detroit at Cincinnati

Sunday, August 17

As already mentioned, bettors will sometimes disagree as to what qualifies as a bad beat. This makes discussing these "borderline bad beats" even more interesting. The 'under' in the Lions/Bengals game wasn't among the worst bad beats that we'll discuss this season and probably falls into the borderline category. It was my toughest loss of the weekend though and I wanted to include one of my own personal tickets. I was enjoying a nice Sunday afternoon, as I'd already won all three of my baseball plays. My chances of winning with Cincinnati and Detroit 'under' and completing the 4-0 sweep seemed reasonably good, as the Lions and Bengals were involved in a defensive affair, tied 10-10 in the fourth. With the Lions up 13-10 with six minutes remaining, at midfield, and seemingly content to keep running on every play, things were starting to look even better. However, just when everyone (including the Bengals secondary) was expecting another run play, Drew Stanton came out of nowhere with a 50 yard play-action touchdown pass. Fast forward a few minutes and we find that the Lions, now up 20- 10, were at third and one at the Bengals' 10 yard line. If they pick up the first down, they most likely just take a knee on the next three plays and run out the clock. No such luck - Stanton ran a bootleg and the confused Bengals allowed him to walk in, untouched from 10 yards out. So much for the sweep!

Looking Ahead

Bad beats, by their very nature, are unpredictable. Therefore, one can't really point to a particular game and say, "watch for a bad beat in this one." However, it is worth mentioning that both of the above 'under' losses came with games that had closing totals of less than 37, both of which finished with final combined scores of exactly 37. I often discuss the importance of the number 37 in the NFL and will re-visit that topic in this week's "Total Bias" column.

Ben Burns' update

Ben Burns — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:36:00 GMT

NFLX goes 2-0 on Thursday - #1 TOTAL OF THE WEEK headlines FANTASTIC Friday card!

Documented NFL Champion Ben Burns CRUSHED the books last preseason and he kicked-off Week 1 by cashing BOTH his NFLX picks yesterday. That included an outright winner on the Ravens AND a relatively easy winner with the 'under' in the Lions/Giants contest.

The winner on Baltimore brought Ben to a PERFECT 5-0 with his weekly Thursday Night "Roasts" this football season (first four were in the CFL) while the over/under winner brought him to a rock solid 8-3 his last 11 "Blue Chip" releases. Today, Burns is stepping out with his #1 NFLX Total of the Week.

With all the excitement involving the return of the NFL, we don't want to forget about the CFL though - particularly not when Ben is hitting a sizzling 69% (9-4) on the season. He's released only one play from Week 7, his #1 Game of the Week, and it's available right now!

With football now officially in full swing, it's a great time to consider one of our ALL-INCLUSIVE weekly or monthly passes, which get you ALL of Ben's plays for an entire week ($175) or month for $400.

Ben Burns Aug. 7th update

Ben Burns — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 19:20:00 GMT

NFLX "Blue Chip" Total kicks-off at 7:00 ET. Thursday "Roasts" are 4-0 YTD!

Week 1 of the Preseason kicks-off today and Documented NFL Champion Ben Burns is fully ready. Ben CRUSHED the books last preseason. and he began his commanding NFLX campaign by going a PERFECT 4-0 with his over/under picks in the H.O.F game and the Opening Round. Today, this renowned "Totals Expert" releases his first total of the '08 season. This top tier ticket is available now and it kick's off on Thursday at 7:00 ET. Even better, it's received "Blue Chip Status!"

Speaking of 4-0, Ben has already gone a PERFECT 4-0 with his weekly Thursday Night "Roasts" this football season, part of a stellar 9-4 mark overall with his Canadian football selections. Winner #5 comes from today's preseason slate. This BEAUTY kicks-off at 7:30 ET.

Ben also has a pair of baseball plays available today, including his latest "Personal Favorite." Note that his PF's are now on a 13-7 run. First pitch goes EARLY so make sure not to sleep in!

With football now officially in full swing, it's a great time to consider one of our ALL-INCLUSIVE weekly or monthly passes, which get you ALL of Ben's plays for an entire week ($175) or month for $400.

Betting Totals in the Preseason: Which Week Produces the Most Points?

Ben Burns — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 05:40:00 GMT

Successful NFL bettors understand that there is a significant difference between handicapping preseason football games and handicapping regular season ones. During the regular season, with so much importance attached to each and every game, coaches adopt a "win at all costs" mentality. However, those same coaches typically have vastly different objectives during the preseason. While some coaches emphasize winning preseason games more than others, all of them want to give their starters enough time to shake off the rust from the offseason while at the same time avoiding injury. Additionally, the coaches want and need to evaluate the second and third-stringers. The difference in coaches' goals means that non-starters typically receive plenty of playing time in the preseason. This is particularly true of Week 1, when stars generally only play for a series or two, or sometimes not at all. These non-starters have often only practiced the various offensive and defensive schemes for a few weeks. Naturally, this has a major impact on the game and it's eventual outcome. This week, I'll be focusing on the final scores of preseason games from the past couple of seasons, breaking those scores down from a week by week standpoint. For the purposes of this article, I've included the "Hall of Fame Game" as part of Week 1 of the preseason.

Most coaches and players will agree that it's harder to learn the offensive schemes than it is the defensive ones. New quarterbacks have a ton to learn. They need to adjust to the faster speed of the game, while learning to read the defenses under pressure. Receivers need to learn routes and develop chemistry with quarterbacks, whom they may not have played with before. Meanwhile, the offensive linemen need to coordinate blocking against potential blitzes, while trying to work themselves into game shape. The effect of this is that defenses are often ahead of the offenses in the preseason, particularly in the first couple of weeks. Therefore, as one would expect, scores of preseason games tend to be lower than scores in the regular season.

Oddsmakers are well aware that preseason scores are lower. As a result, adjustments are made and over/under lines are also lower. However, for the first several years of this millennium, those numbers weren't adjusted quite enough, as roughly 55% of the preseason games from 2000-2006 fell below the total. As someone who typically plays more 'unders' than 'overs,' this six year 'under' trend suited me just fine. All good things must come to an end though and the oddsmakers and markets eventually adjusted accordingly. Week 1 of the 2006 preseason saw the 'under' go a profitable 12-4-1. The following three weeks were almost exactly even, with the 'under' going 24-23-1. The 2007 preseason also got off to a mildly profitable start for 'under' bettors. Excluding one game which landed right on the number, nine of 16 game fell below the number. The 'over' bounced back in a big way in the second and third weeks though. Despite 11 of the 16 Week 4 games staying below the total, the 'over' held a slight 33-30-3 advantage for the four weeks combined.

As I've already mentioned, coaches have different goals in the summer than they do in the fall. Those objectives also vary with each individual week of the preseason. The starters see more playing time in Week 2, than they do in the opening week. In Week 3, the starters see their most playing time, often the entire first half or longer. Different coaches have different philosophies about the final week of the preseason. Sometimes, the way they handle Week 4 is dependant on how their team performed the previous week. If everything went relatively smoothly in Week 3, the starters typically see very little playing time in the preseason finale. However, a new coach on a team that is winless, or which struggled in Week 3, may elect to give his starters more playing time in Week 4. The reason for this being that they'd like to "right the ship" before the "real thing" kicks-off in September. Regardless, starters almost always see the most playing time in Week 3.

Due to each week of the preseason being treated so differently, it's imperative to also handicap each week differently. This holds true for both 'sides' and 'totals.' Beneath, I've broken down the final scores, on a week by week basis, from the previous three (2005-2007) preseasons. In addition to providing the average scores from each week, I've also noted how many of the games fell above, below and on the key numbers of 34 and 37. One might hypothesize that Week 3 would be the highest-scoring, as that's when the starters see the most playing time. Interestingly, over the three years of the case study, that didn't prove to be the case. In fact, Week 2 was by far the highest-scoring. Week 3 came next, followed by Week 4. Not surprisingly, the opening week saw the fewest point scored.

Week 1

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 1 games averaged just 33.4 points.

2005

Thanks in part to a pair of extremely high-scoring games from "Hall of Fame Week," (Hall of Fame Game + a game at Tokyo) 2005 saw the highest average of the three year period, with it's Week 1 games averaging 37.88 points. Ten of 18 games stayed below the key number of 37 with one game landing right on 37. Nine games finished above 34 though with two games landing directly on that number.

2006

The opening week of the 2006 preseason was an extremely low-scoring one. In fact, the 17 games averaged just 31.94 points. Not surprisingly, the 'under' was a profitable 12-4-1. Thirteen games produced less than 37 points while 10 games fell below the 34 mark. On game landed directly on 34.

2007

Last preseason, the Week 1 games averaged 33.47 points. Eleven games fell below the 37 mark, while 10 of them produced less than 34 points.

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Week 2

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 2 games averaged 40.15 points.

2005

The Week 2 games in 2005 produced an average of exactly 41 points. Three of the 16 games landed directly on the key number of 34 with 11 of the games finishing above that mark. One game finished with 37 points with nine finishing with more than 37.

2006

The 16 games played in Week 2 of the 2006 preseason produced an average of 36.88 points. Half of the games finished above 34 points while the other half finished below that mark. One game landed directly on the key number of 37 with nine games staying beneath that mark.

2007

Of the 12 weeks analyzed in this study, the second week of the 2007 proved to be the highest scoring. The games averaged a whopping 42.56 points. Twelve of 16 games produced greater than 34 points while 11 of the games finished above the 37 mark. One game landed directly on 37. Note that the 'over' was a profitable 12-4.

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Week 3

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 3 games averaged 37.31 points.

2005

Despite a couple of high-scoring games which bumped up the average, the 16 games played in Week 3 of the preseason averaged only 35.44 points. Eleven games stayed below the key number of 37 while 10 of them produced less than 34.

2006

Week 3 of the 2006 preseason saw the 16 games average 35.19 points. Half finished below 34 points and the other half finished above that mark. Two games landed directly on the key number of 37 with eight of the games producing less than that amount.

2007

The 'over' was 9-6-1 in Week 3 last preseason, as the games produced an average of 41.31 points. Ten of 16 games produced more than 34 points with one landing right on that number. Nine of 16 games finished with greater than 37 combined points, once again with one game falling directly on that number.

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Week 4

From 2005-2007, the final combined scores of the Week 4 games averaged 34.94 points.

2005

The final week of the 2005 preseason proved to be relatively high-scoring with the 16 games averaging 40.19 points. Twelve finished with more than 34 points while 11 finished above the 37 mark. One game landed directly on 37.

2006

The final week of the 2006 preseason produced an average of 34.63 points. Eight of the 16 games produced less than 37 combined points with the same eight games also finishing below the 34 mark. Four games finished with exactly 37 combined points.

2007

Of the 12 weeks analyzed, Week 4 of the 2007 preseason proved to be the lowest-scoring. In fact, the 16 games averaged a mere 30 points with the 'under' going a profitable 11-5. Eleven games finished below 37 points with one producing exactly 37. The same 11 games also all finished with less than 34.

Five Teams to Pay Attention to in the Preseason

Ben Burns — Tue, 29 Jul 2008 05:26:00 GMT

Preseason football is nearly upon us, which means the "best" time of the sports year is just around the corner. Organizations have spent the spring and summer making changes to try and improve their football team. A year ago, two teams that received among the most accolades for improving their personnel were the 49ers and Patriots, both with several key additions. The 49'ers were so confident of their moves that they gave the Pats their number one pick in the 2008 draft. Note that the 49'ers went 1-3 in the preseason, including losses in each of their final two games. New England lost its first two preseason games. However, when the starters saw some more playing time, they closed out the preseason on a 2-0 run, including a convincing 24-7 win at Carolina in Week 3, when the starters typically get the most playing time of any preseason week. The Patriots went 18-1, the 49ers went 5-11. In other words, some changes work out, some don't!

As usual, every team has made at least a few changes - some more than others. Here's a brief look at five teams which made some key moves. Keep an eye on how these changes affect their various teams in the preseason. For starters, there's real money to be made in the preseason. Additionally, even though the star players generally don't get all that much playing time, one can still often gain valuable insight as to how the various changes might work out for their respective teams once the regular season begins.

San Francisco 49ers:The pressure is on Mike Nolan after a disastrous 2007 season. To change an anemic offense the 49'ers hired Mike Martz, the former Rams head coach who favors wide-open, spread offenses. This will be a sharp departure from the last two years where the 49ers were plodding and predictable on offense, mainly with RB Frank Gore up the middle. Veteran WR Isaac Bruce joins the team, teaming up with Martz again, while WR Ashley Lelie was seen running reverses in practice, so expect a very different 49er offensive look. The real question is: Who will be behind center? Former top pick Alex Smith had a falling out with Nolan and is working his way back from a separated shoulder. Backup QB Shaun Hill (5 TDs, 1 pick) was impressive last season, while J.T. O'Sullivan, who Martz knows from Detroit, is also in the mix. As you know, teams with quarterbacks battling for the starting job can often provide some value during the preseason.

Nolan had all three working out in summer practice. "Alex is very athletic," Nolan said. "He probably has the strongest arm of all the guys. Now he's got to go in there and put in four quarters and move the ball consistently and make plays he should make." Asked if Smith has the edge, Nolan replied, "I wouldn't go there right now." QB Hill tends to play better in games than he shows in practice: "Shaun's been OK in practice, but he's that type of player," noted Nolan. The coaches like O'Sullivan competitiveness and the fact that he learned Martzs system last year in Detroit. Look for a heated battle in preseason between those three, plus a more aggressive offense under Martz, even in August, as they learn his new bag of tricks.

Baltimore Ravens: Brian Billick had a reputation as a fierce competitor and as someone who always liked to win, regardless of whether or not a game was 'meaningless.' An anemic offense cost Billick his job though and theres an old wagering adage that says to take a look at new coaches in preseason. while it seems rather simplistic, the logic is that new coaches typically want to show fans (and upper management) that they were the right pick for the job. Therefore, they want wins, even in preseason. John Harbaugh is the new head coach, the former Philadelphia Eagles secondary coach. Cam Cameron comes in as the new offensive coordinator and he'll have a trio of quarterbacks battling to direct his preferred vertical passing game. Kyle Boller figures to have the inside track but he's just 18-21 as a starter. He'll be fighting off former Ohio State star, Troy Smith, along with rookie QB Joe Flacco from Delaware along. The 6-foot-6 Flacco, the team's 1st round pick, has a big arm and is the highest quarterback ever drafted by the Ravens. Harbaugh was quoted as saying: "We said all along that the quarterback job is going to be an open competition. Whoever gives us the best chance to win, I think is going to be our quarterback."

Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota has been built from the inside out, with exceptional line play on both sides of the ball. They were number one defensively against the run last season. On the other side of the ball, they had a power running game last season with a strong offensive line and running back Adrian Peterson. Now about those skill positions? The Vikings will be interesting as they give young QB Tavaris Jackson some speedy help. They added wide receiver Bernard Berrian from the Bears, a speed-burner alongside second-year WR Sidney Rice, who is also fast. While Jackson should enter the season as the unquestioned starter, the Vikings did bring in backup Gus Frerotte to back him up. (Note that Jackson had three more interceptions than touchdowns last season.) John David Booty will compete with Brooks Bollinger to become the third-stringer.

New Orleans Saints: New Orleans is a team of extremes: Great offense (when healthy), bad defense (when healthy or not). Not surprisingly, they made almost all their offseason moves at upgrading a terrible defense that ranked 26th overall and 30th against the pass. The Saints added defensive end Bobby McCray along with veteran linebackers Jonathan Vilma and Dan Morgan. The secondary saw the additions of Randall Gay and Arron Glenn. They also added Indiana cornerback Tracy Porter with their second round pick int he draft. Speaking of the draft, they moved up to take USC nose tackle Sedrick Ellis with the 7th overall pick, along with DT DeMario Pressley (5th round, NC State) They hope cornerback Mike McKenzie will be ready to go. He tore a ligament in his right knee late last season and is 'rehabbing.' They didn't completely ignore the offense though, as they recently traded for tight-end Jeremy Shockey. When healthy, Shockey can have a major effect on a game. He won the 'Rookie of the Year' award in 2002 and has been selected to play in four Pro Bowls.

Jacksonville Jaguars: One gets the sense that Jacksonville is slowly moving from a power defensive team to a wide-open offensive one. Jacksonville has a new defensive coordinator in Gregg Williams, who was with the Redskins last fall under Joe Gibbs. The problem is they lost DT Marcus Stroud in free agency and defensive end Bobby McCray went to the Saints. Looking to get pressure on the likes of Manning and Brady, they did grab two of the draft's best pass rushers though, Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves. On offense, they rewarded quarterback David Garrard with a longterm contract and immediately upgraded his receiving corps by adding WR Jerry Porter from the Raiders, who is being penciled in as the No. 1 receiver. Not satisfied, they also acquired speedster Troy Williamson. You may recall that the Jaguars closed out the 2007 preseason with three straight wins, each of those victories coming by more than a touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers: Over or Under?

Ben Burns — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:17:00 GMT

Last season, the 49ers were expected to be a team on the rise. They had gone just 7-9 SU (9-7 ATS) in 2006 but had shown considerable improvement down the stretch. Most considered Mike Nolan to be a bright coach with a promising coach. Alex Smith was an up and coming quarterback, who had some new and improved receivers at his disposal. Frank Gore ranked among the best running backs in the league. The 49ers even had the benefit of two selections in the first round. Additionally, the defense had shelled out big bucks in the offseason to sign an elite cornerback, Nate Clements. Naturally, there was plenty of optimism in the Bay area. Oddsmakers originally projected the 49ers to win seven games. However, bettors quickly bet that line all the way up to 8 -115.

As you probably remember, things didn't go as planned. Not only did San Francisco fail to improve, the team actually went backwards. Despite a respectable 3-3 divisional record, the 49ers finished the season with a dismal 5-11 (5-10-1 ATS) mark. Naturally, off that type of disappointing season, expectations are significant lower for the 49ers this year. Oddsmakers are currently projecting the 49ers to win just 6.5 games. In fact, some shops still have their projected number of regular season wins at just six, although one has to lay some extra juice if choosing that option. If one doesn't mind tying up some money for several months, I believe this gives us excellent value with the "Over."

The 49ers biggest problem last season was that the offense couldn't score points. Quarterback Alex Smith struggled, as did the receiving corps. Smith would eventually get hurt, separating his shoulder in Week 4. He also argued with coach Mike Nolan. When Smith went down, Trent Dilfer, who has since retired, was terrible in relief. Frank Gore still finished with more than 1000 rushing yards (1102) while adding more than 436 receiving yards and leading the team with receptions. There are several reasons to believe that the offense will be much improved this season though.

For starters, Gore is back. He's proven to be one of the best backs in the league and should put up big numbers once again. Additionally, Smith is reportedly healthy and has "made peace" with Nolan. He'll be challenged by Shaun Hill, who was solid when given a shot at the starter's job after Dilfer got hurt. Whether it's Smith, Hill or newly acquired J.T. O'Sullivan running the show, there will be some new receiving weapons available. Isaac Bruce, a longtime "49er killer," was signed via free agency. While he's now 35 years old, Bruce still had greater than 50 receptions last season, while leading the Rams with an average of 13.3 yards per catch. The 49ers also acquired former Cardinal Bryant Johnson, also via free agency. Johnson, who was stuck behind Fitzgerald and Boldin in Arizona, has talent and should be thrilled at a chance for a bigger role. They'll join Arnaz Battle, who has been the team's most consistent receiver the past two seasons, and tight-end Vernon Davis, who had 52 receptions last season. Veteran Ashley Lelie and youngsters Jason Hill and Josh Morgan will all compete for a job and provide depth to this much improved unit. The offensive line appears to be relatively solid.

Perhaps more important that the new acquisitions on the field, was the signing of "offensive guru" Mike Martz. As you'll probably remember, Martz was considered a "genius" when coaching in St. Louis, and directing the Rams explosive attack. While he eventually wore out his welcome in St. Louis, Martz also helped improve what had previously been a rather anemic Detroit attack. Whether or not one likes Martz, it's hard to imagine that the 49ers won't be significantly better offensively this season.

There's also reason for optimism on the defensive side of the ball. With Clements signed to a long-term contract, the secondary remains in relatively good shape. The defensive line lost longtime star Bryant Young to retirement, as well as Marques Douglas to free agency. However, they shelled out big bucks to sign free-agent defensive end Justin Smith while acquiring Kentwan Balmer in the first round of the draft. The linebacking corps appears to be a strength. That's largely due to the stellar play of last year's Defensive Rookie of the Year Patrick Willis.

The 49ers are also in good shape in the special teams department. Andy Lee is an excellent punter while Joe Nedney is generally an extremely reliable kicker. Long snapper Brian Jennings is also considered to be one of the best at his position. They also signed Allen Rossum to bolster the return game. San Francisco fans will likely remember Rossum, a former Steelar, as he returned a kickoff for a touchdown against them last season.

The non-divisional schedule appears fairly manageable. While the 49ers do have several tough matchups (Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants) they also face a few non-divisional opponents which ranked near the bottom of the league last season. The Jets, Bills and Dolphins all finished below .500 and had a combined record of just 12-36. The Redskins were relatively mediocre last season and are projected to finish below .500 last season. Meanwhile both the Saints and Lions finished below .500 last season. Of course, the NFC West has been one of the league's weaker divisions for quite some time now. As previously mentioned, even with all last year's problems, the 49ers still managed a 3-3 divisional record last year.

All things considered, I feel that the 49ers will be an improved team this season. If you can still find their projected number of regular season wins at six, consider a play on the 'over.'

With a commanding lead over the competition (field of 150!) Ben Burns is recognized as the #1 NFL handicapper in the entire history of one of the Internet's longest running and most respected sports monitors...

Baseball Parks and Totals

Ben Burns — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 07:11:00 GMT

One important aspect of betting 'totals' in baseball is knowing the various ball parks/stadiums. Certainly starting pitchers, offensive and defensive stats come into play when oddsmakers are making totals on games. The wind direction, too, is a factor and you may have noticed that some Cubs games in Wrigley Field arent posted until the day of the game. Its not called the Windy City for nothing, and bookies dont want to get caught posting an overnight total of 7 for a Wrigley Field game with Carlos Zambrano pitching, then finding out the next morning that the wind is blowing out 20 miles an hour to center.

The configuration of each park is also important to look at, especially with so many parks having been built over the last decade. San Diegos relatively new Petco Park is a pitchers paradise. The correlation is striking in two areas: San Diego is the worst offensive team in baseball, plus they started 23-14 under the total at home. Thats a solid winning percentage just wagering blindly on the under. Not that I would recommend ever blindly wagering on anything

You may recall a few years ago when San Diego slugger Ryan Klesko became frustrated, as he couldnt hit home runs at home anymore because the Padres new park was so big. In short, its a great 'pitchers park' and a very difficult home run park. Two years the Padres were 40-35 under the total at home averaging 3.7 runs. When they went on the road, however, the offense averaged 5.1 runs. Not surprisingly, during the past few seasons, theyve been a solid 'under the total team' at home.

Shea Stadium in New York, the home of the Mets, is another pitcher-friendly park, along with Dodger stadium, (although not quite as much as it once was) Oakland and Washington. Notice that this season the Nationals average 3.4 runs at home, but 3.8 runs on the road. Certainly the park plays a key role in this disparity, leading to a 28-21-1 start under the total at home. In their most recent game here, the Nationals failed to score a single run. Conversely, in their most recent road game, they put up a '5-spot.'

Due to playing in a pitcher friendly park, its essential that the Dodgers have some kind of speed in the lineup, particularly atop the order. Thats why the loss of Rafael Furcal in the first half of the season was such a huge blow. Hes an outstanding leadoff hitter atop the order, one who can get on base and jumpstart an offense by helping to manufacture runs. The Dodgers were 18-14 in games started by Furcal, and then went 12-24 in games after he got hurt.

Parks don't always remain the same either. A few years back, Dodger Stadium underwent some renovations which saw new seats added into areas which had previously been on the field and part of 'foul ball terrritory.' This did have an effect but not quite as much as some may have expected. At the time Dodger catcher David Ross was quoted as saying that he expected the effect to be relatively minimal. "It may be five or six balls in foul ground," he said. Ross continued by saying: "I dont think theres that many outs made in that area. The pitchers park is more because of the heavy air at night in L.A. During the day, a ball flies. At night, it doesnt come close to going out."

How about Coors Field? Several years ago, it was common to see over/under lines of 13, 14 or 15 in games played in the high altitude of Colorado. Those numbers have gradually come down though and today we now routinely see over/under numbers of 9, 9.5 or 10. Despite the lines being adjusted, 24 of 45 games (excluding one push) managed to stay below the total there.

Other offensive parks, besides Coors, include Philadelphia, Boston, Cincinnati, Texas, Houston, Milwaukee, Minnesota and Toronto. Indoor parks like the Metrodome can be tough on pitchers. Not only does the artificial turf cause the ball to scoot faster making it tougher on infielders, but the lack of wind can make indoor places easier home run parks. We may have to include Arizona into this mix, another indoor facility. This season the Diamondbacks are averaging roughly four runs per game on the road, but more than five per game at home. They're hitting a healthy .277 at home but a dismal .220 on the road.

The Oakland As visited last month in an Interleague game and scored 15 runs, most off of ace Brandon Webb. The next night Arizona returned the favor by scoring 11 runs. The previous two days the weak hitting Royals came to Arizona and scored 12 and 8 runs in consecutive games. Anyway, the point is that to be a successful 'total' handicapper, one needs to know the parks and their various dimensions.

The Domino Effect of Aces

Ben Burns — Sat, 21 Jun 2008 06:51:00 GMT

True "ace" pitchers in baseball are the most coveted (and rarest) of commodities. World series champions almost always have a dominant starter on the staff, sometimes even two of them. When the Arizona Diamondbacks won the 2001 World Series, the playoff MVPs were Curt Schilling and Randy Johnson. Who needs offense with a dominant mound one-two punch like that?

When the Cardinals won the 2004 NL pennant and advanced to the World Series, they had a bad bit of luck in the postseason, as ace Chris Carpenter was lost. St. Louis was without their 'top guy' in the World Series, while the AL champion Red Sox had a pair of aces in Schilling and Pedro Martinez. The result was a 4-game sweep. Last October, the Red Sox sported another ace in Josh Beckett, riding his golden right arm to another title. Without him, the Indians probably would have won their first World Series since 1948.

"Workhorse" aces have such a huge impact on a team. They are called stoppers for a reason halting any losing streak every 5 days. They also rest the bullpen, regularly going 7-8 innings. And in the playoffs, there's arguably nothing more valuable than a stopper, especially in a Game 7.

While we have yet to reach the All Star Break, health issues to stoppers are already making some of this season's pennant races particularly interesting to watch. In Chicago, almost everything has been going well for the first place Cubs, at least when they play at Wrigley. Fans are already talking about the team's first World Series title since 1908. However, those talks were put on hold this week, when ace Carlos Zambrano went on the shelf needing an MRI.

Without Zambrano (8-3) the Cubs just got swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. Left-hander Sean Marshall comes up from Class AAA Iowa to take Zambrano's turn. You can already see what a domino effect that can have on a staff. Suddenly the No. 2 starter is forced to become a No. 1, and so on. And instead of Zambrano the Cubs have to use a kid up from AAA. The good news is the Cubs still have the best record in the majors. The worrisome news is that the Cubs returned home smarting from a 2-4 trip.

Arizona has a similar concern. They are worried about ace Brandon Webb, who is 2-3 since winning his first nine starts. Webb lasted just 3 1/3 innings as the As pounded him 15-1. He allowed a season-high seven earned runs and nine hits. He struck out just three and walked five. Those arent the normal numbers of a guy who won the 2006 NL Cy Young Award.

The NL West-leading Diamondbacks were outscored by a combined 35-7 during a three-game skid. For all their woes, the Diamondbacks remain 4 games ahead of Los Angeles in the feeble NL West. Arizona is 7-14 since May 26 but have added a game to its lead in that span. They may be able to survive in this bad division, but will have vastly diminished October hopes if Webb is not 100%.

When the Cardinals advanced to the 2006 World Series, they got there by upsetting the Mets in Game 7 of the NLCS. The Mets starter for Game 7 was Oliver Perez and his 3-13 record. It didnt help manager Willie Randolphs resume to handle the rotation so a kid 3-13 starts the biggest game of the year. It was no surprise Randolph was recently fired with moves like that, plus the Mets historic collapse last September and underachieving 2008 start. He certainly could have used a true stopper the last three years.

A potentially crushing blow to the red-hot Yankees was ace Chien-Ming Wang going out for 6 weeks with an ankle injury. They already lack pitching depth and Wang is invaluable. Having an ace has been a huge part of the success of the Rays (Scott Kazmir), while the Angels have several outstanding starters that kept them afloat while the offense struggled.

The Indians have struggled despite having a pair of aces on C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. Of course, Carmona's injury hasn't helped matters. He'll be back soon (not soon enough for fans of the Tribe!) and it wouldnt be a shock to see them make a second half run with those two. The other side of the coin is that Sabathia is in his 'walk year' and could be dealt likely to a contending team that needs an ace. That could also help tip the pennant balance. Remember back in 2003 the Marlins had a terrible first three months, then roared back to win the World Series. How did they do it? A rotation of Josh Beckett, Dontrelle Willis and Brad Penny. Hows that for a trio of aces!