Andre Gomes

Los Angeles Lakers NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 21:38:08 GMT

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #18 93.3

OFFENSE: #07 107.9

DEFENSE: #06 101.3

The last season of Phil Jackson as coach didn’t go very well for him and for the Lakers as they were humiliated and swept by the Dallas Mavericks in the second round of the playoffs.

I won’t waste a lot of time with the Lakers last season other than saying that they were one of the few teams that were in the top 10 in both defensive and offensive efficiency and as an introduction for this season, the Lakers are coming from a season in which they were “incredible healthy”: Pau Gasol, Derek Fisher, Metta World Piece, Lamar Odom and even Kobe Bryant played all 82 games of the regular season!!!

A lineup Fisher – Bryant – Metta World Piece – Odom – Gasol was by far the most used lineup of all teams of the league last season and this shouldn’t be a surprise because they all played all games of the season! I can’t imagine the same happening this season, as no way a team can go two seasons in a row without any injury on their key players.

Unless the Lakers front office pulls some miracle, the Lakers offseason was a complete disaster from the start. Their need for a PG is a long time issue because Fisher simply hasn’t the legs to compete against the young guns anymore, so the Lakers tried to get Chris Paul and apparently they didn’t/don’t have a plan B. Going for this season with Fisher and Steve Blake is a considerable risk for a supposed contending team.

The Lakers had arguably the best frontline of the league in Gasol, Bynum and Odom and they decided to let go Odom for the NBA Champs Dallas Mavericks for basically….money! Don’t forget that Bynum is suspended for the first 5 games of the regular season and his injury history is very long and this season is full of b2b games and bad physical spots, so the Lakers have an incredible thin frontcourt. Josh McRoberts and Troy Smith aren’t bad players, but when we compare them to Lamar Odom, well we just can’t compare them because it’s unfair.

Kobe Bryant didn’t have a good season for his standards, as his multiple injuries slowed him down all season long. However even though Bryant had pretty good players as teammates that didn’t stop him to have the highest usage rate since the Lakers acquired Gasol! In fact, only Monta Ellis attempted more field goals per game than Kobe Bryant and that’s was obscene not only because the Lakers don’t need Bryant to play like he was in 2005 but also because he was “injured” and obviously his athletic ability wasn’t the same. Fortunately, it looks like Bryant is healthy for this season and the Lakers will need him to carry the team more than ever.

After a great start of the season in which he was clearly one of the best players in the league, Pau Gasol looked completely exhausted at the end of the season and in the playoffs he really couldn’t do anything. Gasol is still one of the best big players of the league but fatigue could be once again a problem and I’ve already mentioned that the Lakers don’t have good depth on the frontcourt.

Mike Brown is the new Head Coach and likely the “Triangle Offense” is gone for the Lakers. These are good news for Metta World Peace because he never realize how to play in that scheme so in a more traditional system, Metta World Peace can be a big factor for this season. Brown is a good defensive coach, as his Cavaliers team were always good on D but on the offensive end, he is little creative.

This season has everything to be a disaster for the Lakers. They won’t have such an injury-free season like they had last season and in a league that is thriven by great point guards who are explosive and ultra athletic, the Lakers have now the slowest rotation of the league in this position. Their premier size advantage is now gone with the departure of Lamar Odom and finally, they also have a new head coach that will have to adjust on the fly. There are just too many issues for them to consider the Lakers as a top contender for the title, unless something happens…

New Jersey Nets NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 21:36:12 GMT

NEW JERSEY NETS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #23 92.5

OFFENSE: #27 100.2

DEFENSE: #22 107.0

The New Jersey Nets doubled the number of wins that they had achieved in the previous season, but it seems only important to me to analyze the Nets season since the moment Deron Williams was traded to New Jersey.

The Nets managed to be a decent defensive team during some stretches of the past season, but overall their roster was unbalanced and they ended up belonging to the final part of the defensive ranks. Offensively, the team was really a disaster. Brook Lopez was simply clueless when other teams sent a double team to cover him and the Nets were an easy team to shut down all season long. Then, Deron Williams came to the rescue. However, Deron played injured in the 12 games he played for New Jersey last season and in fact, he was shut down late in the season because he couldn’t handle the pain caused by a wrist injury on his shooting hand. That’s why Deron shot just 35% from the field in those 12 games. However as a great PG that Deron is, he turned his teammates into better players. During that stretch, the Nets averaged 105 points per 100 possessions vs. the roughly 100pts per possessions for the season.

For this season, a healthy Deron Williams will make a huge difference for the Nets. Do not forget that a couple of seasons ago, we were discussing who was the better PG between him and CP3! Deron is coming from a really tough season, but he looks healthy and he has played oversees in Turkey for a while, so he should be ready for this season, having even scored 50 points in a game there!

Other than Deron Williams, the Nets don’t have great star quality. We are waiting for Brook Lopez to have a breakout season, but he actually regressed last season. He has the physical tools to be a dominant player, but he is playing very far from the basket. Lopez took just 33 percent of his shots from within five feet of the basket last season, a decrease from 49 percent the year before! More absurd than that are his rebound numbers. After averaging 8.6rpg in 09-10, Lopez regressed to just 6.0 rpg last season! There were 27 games last season where Lopez grabbed 5 or less rebounds during the game and 4 games where he failed to grab a single defensive rebound! Several time head coach Avery Johnson talked about Kris Humphries’ job allowed Brook Lopez to do other stuff on court, as Humphries is also a good rebounder, besides being a reality TV star. However, some advanced stats show that Lopez was a bad rebounder even with Humphries on the bench. To make things worse, Lopez got injured and some reports suggest that he will miss 6-8 weeks. Because of this, New Jersey wasted no time and traded for veteran center Mehmet Okur, who will join Deron Williams after a long stint from this duo back in Utah. Okur hasn’t had an injury-free season for a long time, but for the Nets to be competitive, they need Okur to be consistent and healthy right from the start of the season.

The remaining supporting cast of this team is almost one-dimensional. We have Anthony Morrow who is a tremendous 3pts shooter – one of the best in the league, but he is a defensive liability. On the other side, the Nets signed DeShawn Stevenson in the free agency and he is the anti-Morrow type of player: good on defense, but limited on offense. If the Nets could merge these two players into one, then they would have an excellent shooting guard.

On the frontcourt, the Nets re-signed Kris Humphries who is a good rebounder, but far from being an above average PF in this league. Johan Petro, Shawne Williams and Jordan Williams will complement the frontcourt and oh boy, Deron Williams will have a lot of hard work to do in order to fight for the right spots for these guys to score. If the lack of quality on the frontcourt is evident, things get even worse at the SF position: Damion James, Shawne Williams, Ime Udoka and Stephen Graham are the four players currently on the roster who can play at small forward: good Lord…

I have no doubt about the quality of individual skills of Deron Williams and what he can offer to his teammates, but we are talking about a roster with limited talent. So, I don’t believe the Nets to be a legit team with clear aspirations to reach the postseason. There have been rumors about Howard going to the Nets and these rumors will continue going on for the next weeks. If somehow the Nets land Howard on their team, then everything changes and you can simply delete the last paragraph of this preview.

San Antonio Spurs NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 18:57:50 GMT

SAN ANTONIO SPURS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #15 94.3

OFFENSE: #2 109.4

DEFENSE: #11 102.8

The Tim Duncan Era ranks:

Season	Pace	OffRtg	DefRtg
1997-98	23	15	2
1998-99	24	10	1
1999-00	24	9	2
2000-01	25	3	1
2001-02	19	9	1
2002-03	20	7	3
2003-04	21	14	1
2004-05	23	8	1
2005-06	24	9	1
2006-07	27	4	2
2007-08	28	13	3
2008-09	27	12	6
2009-10	20	9	9
2010-11	14	2	11

Every single year, we knew the kind of team the San Antonio Spurs were going to be. And that was a half-court minded team, anchored by Tim Duncan and where the offense was good enough to score. With this philosophy, the Spurs were one of the most dominant teams in the decade.

However, in the last few seasons, the Spurs began to show some defensive struggles, what was actually quite normal. Bruce Bowen was gone, the main core of the team was getting older and Tim Duncan couldn’t play more than 30mpg last season.

Obviously Gregg Popovich had to do something…and he changed the team into one of the best offensive teams in the league. Say goodbye to the Spurs version of being an elite defensive team with an average offense and say hello to the new Spurs version, with an elite offense and an average defense. The truth is that last season, the Spurs averaged 16.1 fast-break points per 100 possessions, the 7^th highest rate in the league. They led the league in 3PTS% with 39.7% and committed just 12.9 turnovers per game. These numbers clearly demonstrate the high efficiency of the Spurs offense and help to explain why San Antonio was the best team in the Western conference during the regular season.

Unfortunately, Manu Ginobili hurt his right elbow during the last week of the regular season and everything that the Spurs were able to do during the regular season was put in jeopardy, as Ginobili was clearly the Spurs MVP during the past season.

To make things worse for the Spurs, from every lower seeded teams that went to the playoffs, the Grizzlies were the worst matchup for the Spurs and that was shown on the court. Tim Duncan’s days of dominating when he’s on the floor are gone and Memphis frontcourt duo of Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph was able to limit Duncan during the series. The team that better handled the ball during the regular season faced the team who forced more turnovers during that span. The result of that was that the Spurs committed 14 turnovers per game during the series. The final nail in their coffin was that it happened to the Spurs what the Spurs used to do against every offensive minded team on the playoffs during their defensive minded era: they were shut down in the perimeter, as they could just shot 29% 3PTS during the six-game series.

Now, is their window to win another championship closed? Not in my opinion, as their coach Gregg Popovich is a genius and he can find ways for his team to win, even if it’s necessary to change the whole philosophy of the team. With a short season full of tough physical spots, the old Spurs with their slow pace and terrific defense would be one of the most benefited teams from this calendar. But as we have seen, these days are gone unless Popovich changes his mind again.

On the other side, we have a veteran team who will have to play fewer games this season than on a regular season and that must be taken in account as well. With a healthy Parker and Ginobili, the Spurs have one of the best SG-PG combos of the league and with both players being clutch down the stretch. The Spurs have always had the ability to find new talent and if Duncan was able to stay healthy and relatively fresh late on the season, the Spurs will be one of the best teams in the west once again.

Orlando Magic NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 18:54:33 GMT

ORLANDO MAGIC

Advanced Stats:

PACE #19 93.3

OFFENSE: #13 105.5

DEFENSE: #03 98.9

I left Orlando’s preview to be one of the last to be released due to Howard’s situation, as it is likely that he will be traded and his presence or absence is motive enough for this preview to need to be completely changed. Howard was a monster last season, in my opinion he should have been the MVP last year and he only wasn’t because Orlando struggled to be along with the best teams in the league.

The team gave signs early on that they wouldn’t be a real top contender and so, GM Otis Smith pulled the trigger and made two mega trades that gave Orlando Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Earl Clark. The team continued with their offensive problems, as Earl Clark combined to shoot just 42 percent from the field in Orlando, but they showed a better ball movement that helped Howard.

The surprise and the major reason why I believe Howard should have been the MVP last year was the fact that Orlando was still a top 3 defensive team, even though they had players like Nelson, Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson – all of them bad defensive players!

Howard’s influence near the basket is unquestionable as the Magic were:

#1 Defensive rebounding team w/76.89% DF/rate
#1 Points in the paint allowed w/35.4 ppg
#1 opponents FG’s attempted at the rim w/24.8% (few teams dared to attack the rim vs. Orlando)

In the playoffs, the Magic were upset by the Hawks as they had right keys to beat Orlando: defend 1*1 Howard and let Howard do his damage, but shut down everyone else. The Magic was used to be a potent 3pts machine, but against the Magic for only once they able to hit more than 30% 3pts during the seasons – curiously resulted in a blowout win. Howard’s numbers in the playoffs speak for themselves: 27ppg, 63% from the field, 15.5 boards per game and 1.8 blocks per game!

Going for this season, the Magic will use the same strategy with Howard: a combination with Howard post up skills and a barrage of 3pts shooters, while on the defensive end they will be for sure a top team!

They traded Brandon Bass for Glen “Big Baby” Davis, but honestly I don’t see any big improvement for the Magic and that’s it…as the Magic basically returned with the same from the last season.

Hedo Turkoglu and Jason Richardson didn’t shoot well for Orlando last season, so we can expect better numbers from them. Turkoglu will have his preferred role of a Point Forward that put him on the spotlight when the Magic went to the Finals. Nelson will be once again the Point Guard and really there isn’t more news for this team.

The Magic saw the Heat and the Bulls reach another level last season and they watched this season the Knicks improve their roster this offseason, but they couldn’t do anything to improve their roster as they are stuck with big bad contracts. With Howard they will be a powerhouse team in the East as their defense is really too good, but will it be enough for a Championship run? I doubt about it!

New Orleans Hornets NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 15:27:15 GMT

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #29 90.7

OFFENSE: #19 103.8

DEFENSE: #09 102.5

Talking about the Hornets’ last season is a mere exercise of futility because going for this season, the Hornets have lost their two best players not only from the last season, but of the whole franchise. Monty Williams did a terrific job with the Hornets in his first year as a coach! The Hornets improved dramatically on the defense and the rebounding department while offensively, any team that has Chris Paul has a chance to win a ball game down the stretch.

The league decided that the Hornets have to be “young” for the future and they received Eric Gordon, Al-Farouq Aminu, Chris Kaman’s expiring contract and the Timberwolves first round pick of the next season for Chris Paul.

In my opinion, the ceiling of this team is pretty low while the mindset of the organization (league owns the team) is to get two high draft picks in the next season and start their true rebuilding process.

The “new” Point Guard of this team is Jarrett Jack and even though I think that Jack is a solid player, he isn’t a “facilitator” PG like CP3 is. Jack’s best assists numbers of his career was 5.3 apg for Portland a couple of seasons ago and usually CP3 doubles Jack’s assists per game numbers…every single season!

Okafor is a solid defensive player, but he can’t create his own shot and his small hands have been an obstacle for him. Even with CP3, Okafor has struggled to be consistent on offensive end, what will happen without him playing along with the best Point Guard of the game?! Chris Kaman has been battling through injuries and we really don’t know if he can stay health for the long term, so the Hornets have a thin frontcourt for this season.

Trevor Ariza will potentially have the same problem as Okafor because Ariza couldn’t improve his offensive numbers playing with CP3 and for the second consecutive season he failed to hit 40% from the field for the season and we are talking a guy that shoots more than 10 FG’s per game!

On the backcourt, their premier player is now Eric Gordon and he has the potential to be a pretty good player although not a superstar in my opinion. He suffered some injuries last season, but on his best month (January), Gordon averaged 25.1 points per game while shooting almost 50% from the field! He is just 23-years old and the Hornets are counting on him to be part of their future. Other than him, the Hornets don’t have much more quality for the long term sake of the franchise.

I don’t expect the Hornets to be a playoff team and I would be surprised if they put some fight for the last spot because they don’t have depth and they stuck with a core of players that were used to play around one true superstar player – remember the Cavaliers last season?!

Houston Rockets NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 15:23:03 GMT

HOUSTON ROCKETS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #10 97.1

OFFENSE: #6 108.0

DEFENSE: #13 106.2

Last season no team started the season in such a disastrous way like the Rockets and probably this was the reason that cost them the 8th seed in the Western conference. The Rockets knew that Yao Ming couldn’t play in back to back games, but they found quickly that Ming couldn’t play at all. Then they started 0-5 the season when they could have won all the 5 games as they led every ball game down the stretch!

Without Yao Ming, the Rockets had a relatively deep roster that didn’t have any “real” superstar. Nevertheless, Rick Adelman was able to produce some magic and turn the Rockets into the 6^th best efficient offensive team in the league! The Rockets had some problems in scoring near the basket – they were 21st in field goal percentage and 23^rd in FG% at the rim with just 62.8%. However, they were just a good 3pts shooting team and they just didn’t turn the ball over – 2^nd best TO/ratio of the league! Their balance made them a competitive team, but down the stretch, their lack of “star power” was really problematic because the Rockets didn’t have a reliable player in the crunch time and they struggled in several games where they could won if they had a superstar to carry them at the end.

Houston was traditionally an excellent defensive team, but Rick Carlisle realized that with the current roster they wouldn’t have a chance to play in a slow paced half court game like they were used to play with a prime Yao Ming. Having Kevin Martin and Luis Scola playing major minutes will hurt you on the defensive end and when your starting center is the 6’6’’ Chuck Hayes, Rick Adelman knew his Rockets were in trouble and indeed they were: #27 points in the paint allowed w/45.9; #23 Fast Break points per game allowed w/14.7ppg and #28 creating TO’s with a 12.55% TO/rate.

For this season, Rick Adelman is now in Minnesota and Kevin McHale is the new Rockets’ head coach. I don’t want to make early predictions, but the drop off of quality is considerable between Adelman and McHale. Adelman has one of the best coaching records of the league and he has an absurd experience while McHale had two stints as a head coach of the Wolves and that’s all. Eventually he could be a great head coach but right now I choose Adelamn every day over him.

After Yao Ming being the franchise face of the Rockets, Houston tried badly to add a perennial star for their frontcourt – their plan to rebuild was signing or trading a top frontcourt player as their foundation. Pau Gasol “was” that guy but the other teams’ owners had other plans and then they failed to sign Nene Hilario who chose to stay in Denver. The best they could obtain was Samuel Dalembert and while he isn’t by any means near the quality of a Pau Gasol or Nene, the Rockets has now a guy that will protect the rim and so, they can have aspirations to be a good defensive team.

McHale will have to create good team chemistry around Kevin Martin and Luis Scola because the organization already showed that they won’t hesitate in trading them in the future. Martin is a solid scorer that is excellent in drawing fouls and going to the free throw line, the problem is that his defense is atrocious, so the Rockets must find a way to hide his defensive liabilities. On the other side, Scola is an all around player. His offensive arsenal is one of the bests in the league for his position – he hit 48% FG from 16-23 feet while attempting almost 5 FGA per game in that area, but somehow like Martin (but not as bad as him), Scola isn’t a good defensive player, however having a guy like Dalembert playing on his side will help. In a certain way is like Dirk Nowitzki playing with Tyson Chandler with the obvious differences.

The Rockets added to their frontcourt rookie Marcus Morris in the first round and Norris is a versatile PF that has some offensive skills, however his size and length (or lack of it) could be problematic and that’s why the Rockets pursued badly a big center to help Scola and Norris in the defensive assignments.

For the backcourt, the Rockets have a lot of young players: Chase Budinger, Courtney Lee, Kyle Lowry, Terrence Williams or Jonny Flynn. Of all these players, I really like the way Lowry has developed in the last two seasons. Lowry is a solid defensive player and his offensive repertoire is growing fast. His court vision is way better than anyone could guess in his days in Memphis, so the Rockets has a good PG for the present and future.

The Rockets are one of the teams that don’t have a true superstar, but they could be competitive because of a deep roster. The ability to be competitive or not will be on their head coach Kevin McHale’s job in finding the right rotations. Somehow, the Rockets remind me of this season’s Denver Nuggets even though the Nuggets have a better overall roster and a better coach.

Memphis Grizzlies NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 03:28:54 GMT

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

Advanced Stats:

PACE #14 94.7

OFFENSE: #16 104.4

DEFENSE: #8 102.5

In the first half of last season, Memphis looked like to go for a pretty average season for them, with a 19-23 record by January 19. Even though they were showing a lot of potential, they were being incredibly inconsistent and in point in December, they lost 4 games in a row, followed by 4 wins in a row and then, 3 more losses in a row. OJ Mayo was struggling and in February, they lost Rudy Gay for the season. So, it’s quite remarkable that this very same team finished the regular season on a 27-13 run. Then, they knocked down the #1 seed San Antonio in 6 games, in a series where they were in position of winning all six games played! They followed this huge upset with a great fight in the conference semi-finals against Oklahoma City, where they eventually lost the 7^th and decisive game of the series.

With or without Rudy Gay, Memphis’ offense was just average. They were a quite physical team, always ready to attack the basket and the truth is that they were 1^st in the league in points in the paint per game, with 51.2 ppg. The problem was located on the outside shooting, where they were the 4^th worst team in 3pts% with 33.4% and 24^th in shooting from 16-23 feet with 38.4%. However, Memphis was the team that most possessions created for their offense, as not only they were the best team in the league in forcing turnovers, with an opp. TO/rate of 15.69% as consequently helped the Grizzlies in being the 4^th best team in fast break points per game with 16.5 ppg, as they were also the 6^th best team in offensive rebounding, with an OR/rate of 28.89%!

The solution for the struggles in the perimeter may exactly be Rudy Gay, as he was having career highs in FG% (47.1%) and 3pts% (39.6%) when he got injured last season. In order for Memphis to consolidate as a top team, they need to improve their outside shooting and they are counting on Gay for such improvement and they even realized the potential importance of OJ Mayo and they rejected Indiana’s trade proposal for him, as he can be a X factor to give Randolph and Gasol some relief from the outside.

If Memphis was an average offensive team, it’s obvious that the key for their great season was indeed their defense. Memphis wasn’t a top 10 team in terms of interior defense, as they were 13^th in points in the paint allowed with 40.3 ppg and 21^st in FG% allowed at the rim with 64.9%.However, Memphis decided to defend straight up the opposing big men, so they could unleash their perimeter defense! Memphis led the league in steals per game with 9.4 spg, with Tony Allen having a pivotal role in turning Memphis into one pesky defensive team. When the playoffs came, the Spurs were automatically in trouble as San Antonio was a more perimeter offensive team during the regular season and the Grizzlies simply shut down them. In the following round, OKC didn’t have any real interior offensive threat and obviously Memphis made both Durant and Westbrook work hard for seven games.

Memphis secured Marc Gasol for the future with a long term deal, but curiously the Spanish player had a down regular season when compared to the previous year: fewer points per game, worse FG% and less rebounds per game. However, his importance against the Spurs on his matchup with Tim Duncan was crucial. Gasol reminded Duncan that he is not on his prime anymore and he proved to be one of the few big men in the league who can defend anyone without any help, while he’s offensively skilled enough to create his own shot. Also his presence in the middle lifted Zach Randolph. Zbo was once again a beast. He can’t dunk, but he gets the right spots to both score and rebound and the result of that was 20.1ppg while shooting 50.3% FG – for the first time in a long time (8 seasons), he was able to shoot above the 50% FG mark! At the same time, he grabbed 12.1 rebounds per game – only Love and Howard had a better rebounding average than him! We can expect this duo to dominate once again this season all around the league, as they don’t look weaker than any other frontcourt duo in the league right now, Bynum/Gasol included. Unfortunately, Darrell Arthur suffered a bad injury and he will be out for the season, so the depth behind Gasol and Zbo will be really thin and I don’t think the Grizzlies can reach the elite level without more depth in the frontcourt.

Mike Conley might not be the next Chris Paul, but he had arguably his best season as a pro last year. He improved in almost every relevant statistic, but I highlight his jump in the assists department to 6.5 apg and steals with 1.8 spg – all career highs!

Memphis is considered one of the best teams in the West after their great performances in the playoffs last season. Rudy Gay is their best season “acquisition” and their backcourt is loaded. With more depth in the frontcourt, they have the potential of being really good this season. However, inconsistency may be a problem again. We are talking about a team who went 16-25 on the road last season, but still the Grizzlies that will surely be in the playoffs this season. I have some doubts about their high ceiling, but they are still a young team on the rise.

Phoenix Suns NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Fri, 23 Dec 2011 03:26:02 GMT

PHOENIX SUNS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #8 96.5

OFFENSE: #9 107.0

DEFENSE: #25 107.4

Steve Nash is a special player, but even him can’t produce miracles every single season and for the first time in the “Nash era” in Phoenix, the Suns had a losing regular season record.

The Suns under Nash were known for being not just a top offensive team, but the most efficient offensive team in the league! In fact, if we count his last seasons with a Dallas uniform, Nash’s teams were always ranked #1 in offensive efficiency! But last season, the Suns were only the 9^th best offense in the league and that’s why they couldn’t make up their usual defensive liabilities because their offense wasn’t the best in the league as they were used to be.

However, before they made a mega trade with Orlando, the Suns were ranked #2 in offense, so having Vince Carter instead of Jason Richardson was the big difference because after the trade, the Suns were just #13 in offensive efficiency.

With Gortat, Carter and Pietrus, the Suns tried to fix their defense and indeed they managed to improve as the Suns were #21 in defensive efficiency, but the offensive drop off was just too big for them. The Suns pounded the “lowly teams” of the league with a 27-7 record vs. below 0.500 teams, but against the “big boys” they were bullied: 17-31 record!

Marcin Gortat proved how easy it is to play along Steve Nash and he was a nice pickup from Orlando. He started only in 14 games but as a starter he averaged 13.9 ppg, while shooting 55.9% from the field and grabbed 10.8 boards per game! He helped the team in the late improvement from the defense, but still the Suns were an awful rebounding team – 3^rd worst in the league behind Sacramento and Washington.

Channing Frye was the starting Power Forward of the Suns last season and he was a dangerous threat from the perimeter. The problem is that he plays at the PF position and playing so far from the basket could hurt your ability to grab offensive boards, but curiously the suns were a great offensive rebounding team (#3 OR/rate with 23.67% rate). Nevertheless, he attempted just 0.9 FGA at the rim vs 5.7 treys per game!

In order to add some toughness in their frontcourt, the Suns drafted Markieff Morris from Kansas and he could be the X factor for the Suns to not be on the bottom 5 in defense with his physical style and aggressiveness near the basket. But still the Suns don’t have much more quality on the frontcourt as Lopez and Warrick are just average players.

In a shortened season without many days to rest, the fact that their best two players are 37 and 39 years old can become a huge problem. But honestly I really don’t know if Nash and Hill will struggle this season because they are so careful with their physical condition that it doesn’t look like that they are really so old. Hill loved the Suns trainers so much that this was the biggest reason of why he re-signed with them!

The biggest offseason acquisition from the Suns was the signing of Shannon Brown. He was a serviceable backup player in LA and he has now the opportunity to increase his minutes. Steve Nash will test his athleticism, so get ready to see some great alley hoop dunks from him.

They also have Dudley, Pietrus, Telfair and Brooks (if he can leave China), but all of these players despite adding depth to the perimeter they aren’t players who could start in a contending team.

Phoenix could make a run for one of the last spots in the playoffs because Nash can make their teammates look better than they really are, but we are talking about a team with limited talent right now. Steve Nash’s era in Phoenix is coming to an end but unfortunately it doesn’t looking to be a happy ending.

Denver Nuggets NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 21:03:39 GMT

DENVER NUGGETS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #2 98.0

OFFENSE: #1 109.5

DEFENSE: #17 104.8

The Denver Nuggets are coming from a season in which they had two completely different teams! They were one of the most talked teams in the league, but not for the good reasons as “the Melodrama” soap was a big distraction in the first half of season.

Nevertheless, with Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets had a 32-25 record and they were the most efficient offensive team in the league. The problem was on the other side of the ball where the Nuggets were a “bad” defensive team. I just need to name two games to illustrate how pathetic the Nuggets defense were during that stretch: in Indiana, they allowed 144 points including a 54-points in the quarter in which the Pacers hit their first 20 shots of the quarter and in Sacramento, where they allowed 69 points in the first half against the Kings in a 20-pts blowout loss.

When the trade was made, the Nuggets lost their starting Point Guard and Small Forward but they some nice underrated players in Felton, Gallinari, Chandler and Mozgov. Obviously they couldn’t keep the same offensive effectiveness, but they were still ranked #6 in offense after the trade.

However, the Nuggets were a tremendous defensive team after the trade and even the diehard Nuggets fans weren’t expecting such incredible defensive improvement! The sample is just 25 games, so we should be careful in making this a great “thing”, but the Nuggets were the best defensive rebounding team in the league, they forced more turnovers (Felton is really good in this department) and they simply stopped sending the opponents to the Free Throw line (rank #7 vs #18 before the trade).

In the playoffs, the Nuggets were the lower seed that nobody would want to face but against the Oklahoma City Thunder their lack of a real superstar player hurt them down the stretch as 3 of the Thunder’ wins were by 4 or less points.

The only certainty from last season is that Head Coach George Karl besides being a great coach, he also knows how to prepare and coach a team in a short span and that’s exactly the script for this season!

In this offseason, the Nuggets front office did a terrific job as they signed both high prized free agents Nene Hilario and Arron Afflalo. Note that these two players ranked first and second in true shooting percentage last season respectively. Nene will likely get a higher usage for the future because he is now unquestionably the most skilled offensive player of the roster. Nene was never a good rebounder and George Karl solved this problem with his defensive scheme last season, so this won’t be a problem for the Nuggets this season.

The Nuggets have Chris Andersen, Timofey Mozgov and Al Harrigton to complement Nene and despite the fact that they aren’t a top frontcourt unit, they all offer different things to the team and Karl knows how to use these players.

We are still waiting a breakout season from Danilo Gallinari and this might be the right season for him. Gallo was almost exclusively an one/dimensional perimeter player, but last season with the Nuggets, Gallo was way more aggressive and established a career best 7.2 FT/game. He also grabbed a career best 5.4 boards per game, so playing more near the basket was a good thing to see from Gallo and this will open up his offensive game.

The Nuggets backcourt isn’t for sure the most talented unit of the league, but I really doubt that any team have more depth than the Nuggets have for this season.

Ty Lawson’s speed and effectiveness was remarkable last season. As a starter, Lawson averaged almost 15 points per game while shooting 50.9% from the field and 44.2% behind the arc! He also had a good A/TO ratio with 6.7/2.1, so Lawson is improving fast and furious! The Nuggets traded Raymond Felton for Andre Miller, so Miller will return to “home”! Obviously with Miller on the court, the Nuggets won’t be a run and gun team like they are with Lawson, but Miller is one of the most underrated players in the league which is weird to say this because he is a 35 years old veteran player. Few would call him the X factor of the Blazers last season, but the Blazers were much better offensively with Miller on the floor (109 points scored per 100 possessions) than with him on the bench (99) last season. And while they were on the floor with Miller, LaMarcus Aldridge, Nicolas Batum, Rudy Fernandez, Wesley Matthews and Brandon Roy were all more efficient scorers.

Aaron Afflalo is a solid defensive player that knows how to spot his right shots - shooting almost 50% from the field and 42% behind the arc will prove this and the Nuggets also added Spanish player Rudy Fernandez. I’ve always been a fan of Fernandez, but he has never played his best basketball in the NBA, but truth must be told, he never got the proper confidence from his teams and it looks like the Nuggets like him or they wouldn’t trade for him.

There is some uncertain about JR Smith and Wilson Chandler, but if these guys can find a way out of China and join the Nuggets, then we are talking about arguably the deepest team in the league. A loaded roster could be the reason of why the Nuggets will make the playoffs this season. They don’t have a real superstar, but they will compete in those terribly physical spots just because they have the proper depth unlike 90% of the rest of the league.

Cleveland Cavaliers NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Thu, 22 Dec 2011 21:01:25 GMT

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #19 95.6

OFFENSE: #29 99.5

DEFENSE: #29 109.0

The Cleveland Cavaliers showed last season why LeBron James has been arguably the best player of the league in the last 3 years. With basically the same roster minus James, the Cavs won just 19 games and established one NBA record by losing 26 consecutive games between Dec. 20 and Feb. 9.

Without James, the 3 most important players for the Cavaliers were Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao and unfortunately for them, all these 3 players battled through injuries all season long. This also helps to explain why the Cavaliers were such a bad team: they were the second worst team of the league in both ends of the floor!

It wasn’t a good first year for Head Coach Byron Scott and in part he was responsible for the debacle as his Princeton offense style is too complex and he admitted that midway the season. Probably this is why his teams struggled so bad in the first season: in New Jersey he went 26-56 in his first season, but then the Nets acquired Jason Kidd and went to the Finals the two following seasons and in New Orleans, the Hornets went 18-64 in his first season, got Chris Paul in the draft and turn them into one of the best Western conference teams.

Fortunately the Cavaliers got lucky in the draft and land Kyrie Irving with the first pick of the draft. Irving was considered by a wide margin the best player of the draft and he has the tools to be a terrific Point Guard: great feel for the game, excellent court vision and even a good shooting ability. He will likely have a great mentor in Byron Scott, considering the way Scott helped Kidd and CP3 in the past.

The rest of the backcourt remains basically the same and the continuity in his case doesn’t seem to be a good thing: Anthony Parker is now 36-years old and he coming from a season in which he shot 39.9% from the field; Daniel Gibson is a defensive liability and he needs other players to create offense for him and Ramon Sessions isn’t the player we thought he would be after watching him play in Milwaukee.

All these players were used to stand around in a corner waiting for a LeBron James’ pass, but without him they simply can’t create offense. Irving might help them in this department, but the Cavaliers will have to refresh the backcourt in the near future.

On the frontcourt, Anderson Varejao looks to be completely healthy for this season and his presence is huge for the Cavs because he adds a necessary dose of toughness and physical play to the roster. Before he got injured last season, Varejao almost averaged 10 rebounds and 10 points per game and even though his defense wasn’t brilliant at the time, he was still the best defensive player of the team.

Antawn Jamison is on the decline of his career and the Cavs need badly to cut his minutes if they want to win. It’s hard to say something like I just said, but Jamison simply doesn’t want to play near the basket and wants to avoid contact. Last season he attempted just 2.9 FGA/game at the rim vs. 3.6 FGA/game from 16-23 feet and 4.7 treys per game!

The Cavaliers drafted Tristan Thompson with the 4^th pick whose athleticism and 7-foot-2-inch wingspan have many expecting him to make an immediate impact on the defensive end. The contrast between Thompson and Jamison is pretty clear, so Byron Scott will have to manage properly the two players. Jamison can play at the Small Forward position as well. In fact he has been playing like that in the last years, so it wouldn’t be a great difference for him. Also Omri Casspi was traded in the offseason for J.J. Hickson and he will compete with Semih Erden and Samardo Samuels in the frontcourt.

With the current roster, I don’t expect any miracles from the Cavaliers this season. Byron Scott usually improves his teams on the second season, but truth must be told, it won’t be that hard to improve the Cavaliers from what they were last season. Nevertheless, I think that the Cavs will be one of the teams “fighting” for the best chances in next year’s draft once again.

Los Angeles Clippers NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 14:29:30 GMT

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #10 96.0

OFFENSE: #23 101.8

DEFENSE: #19 106.3

Last season the Clippers limited themselves to be the “same old” Clippers the franchise has been over the last few years: poor! Midway December, the destiny of the Clippers was already set, as with 5-21 record, the team was way out of the playoff picture.

However, the Clippers enjoyed a nice month of January by going 9-5 and beating some of the best teams of the league like Miami, Denver or the Lakers. The problem was their lack of consistency or being consistently inconsistent.

Offensively, the Clippers were a force on the paint. Blake Griffin was obviously the biggest reason for this, but they were indeed a good interior offensive team: only the Grizzlies scored more points in the paint per game than the Clippers (Clippers averaged 45.5 ppg), and their shot distribution clearly indicated their tendency to go inside as 32.7% of their shots were at rim (#7 in the league), while hitting 65.4% of those shots. On the defensive end of the floor, the Clippers fouled too much and were #5 (it’s a bad sign) in FT rate allowed with 32.4%.

Now talking about the upcoming season, it’s impossible not to start with the mega trade that the Clippers did to get Chris Paul. Eric Gordon is a good player who has the potential to be a perennial all star player and next year’s Minnesota pick can potentially be the first draft pick of the draft, but when you have the chance to get a guy like CP3, you simply can’t pass the opportunity.

Paul is a rare talent in the history of the league. He is the kind of player who will make every teammate into a better player. I can recall just of a few players in the history in the league that has the same ability, the last ones being Magic Johnson, John Stockton and Steve Nash.

After suffering a tough knee injury in the previous season, CP3 was durable last season as he played 80 games while averaging 36 minutes per game, so Paul has already played a full season after hurting his knee.

It will be quite curious to see how CP3 will combine with Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, not because I have any kind of doubt about the chemistry, but because traditionally the Hornets were always a mid range jump shooting team when CP3 was there. His best partner in New Orleans, David West, loved to shoot mid range jumpers while the pick and pop play with CP3 was the bread and butter of the Hornets in the last years. Now with Blake Griffin, the dynamic will change a little bit because Griffin is infinitely a better athlete than West, so we can expect a lot of alley hoops between the two players.

Blake Griffin is already one of the best players of the league and he averaged 22.5 ppg and 12.1 rpg as a rookie! 44% of his shots last season were at the rim and still Griffin converted 67.7% of his attempts in that area! He still needs to work on a jump shot, but with CP3 around him, he will be what Amare Stoudemire was for Steve Nash in Phoenix: an offensive machine!

DeAndre Jordan will be the Hornets’ Tyson Chandler version for CP3. He will get his points from dunks and from offensive boards situations, but his main task will be to give some breath to Griffin on the defensive end. He is a good post defender, but as a help defender, he needs to improve considerably to be near of what Tyson Chandler is right now. Nevertheless, Jordan is only 23 years old, so he has potential and won’t need to rush anything on the offensive end.

Lost in the CP3 trade was the signing of Caron Butler. Maybe he was a bit overpaid considering his age and injury track record, but Butler is still a solid player in both ends of the floor. Inserted in a good system, Butler shot 43.1% behind the arc in Dallas last season, as he can shoot the ball in spot ups opportunities.

Probably the most fascinating combination of the Clippers roster for this season will be the Billups-CP3 tandem. CP3 is a terrific defensive player, but his size is problematic when against bigger players so in theory, putting another PG on the court at the same time than him would be a wrong idea. However, Billups isn’t a prototypal Point Guard as he is big and strong so he can guard obviously PG’s and also SG’s. This combination somehow reminds me the duo Kidd-Barea for the Mavs last season and in this case, Billups is the “Jason Kidd”, as he will guard the opposing shooting guard.

I have to confess that I’m not a Billups fan in his last 2/3 seasons because he has the tendency to shoot too many treys early on the shot clock and he really took over the notion of 6 seconds or less D’Antoni mentality for the Knicks last season by attempting 6 treys per game! Like CP3, Billups has a great character so the days of passivity and no desire from the Clippers organization are simply gone!

One of the potential problems for the Clippers is their lack of depth behind a strong starting unit. Mo Williams will likely be the 6^th man coming off the bench and the Clippers have a nice 3-guard rotation with a great dose of variety. On the frontcourt, the Clippers are trying to get more players to backup Griffin and Jordan, so let’s see what they will acquire in the future because even though Griffin and Jordan are young players, they cannot play 48 minutes and the drop off of quality is huge! With a good backup big man the Clippers would be dead serious.

The conversation for who’s the best team in Los Angeles is legit right now. However, I have some concerns about the coaching skills of Vinny Del Negro. A good testament of this was to watch the Bulls last season in the first season after Del Negro. Boozer started the season injured, so it was basically the same Bulls’ team that Del Negro had, but the results were way different as Tom Thibodeau was/is an instant factor! The Playoffs will be the minimum required for the Clippers, as the competition looks to be weaker in the West this season, but in the Clippers mindset, they want more than just a postseason presence!

Golden State Warriors NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Wed, 21 Dec 2011 14:27:16 GMT

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #6 97.3

OFFENSE: #12 105.5

DEFENSE: #26 107.6

In the first season after the end of the “Nellieball” era in Golden State, the Warriors gave the keys to Keith Smart and the primary objective of the organization last season was pretty clear: improve the defense.

Indeed they improved on the defensive end: from the second worst to the fifth worst defense! Other than that, the Warriors defense was atrocious: #26 points in the paint allowed w/45.5ppg; Worst defensive rebounding team allowing the opponents to grab 30.72% of the boards; 2^nd worst team in allowing the opponents going to the FT line w/33.3% FT/rate allowed and they were also the 2^nd worst team in defending at the rim by allowing 69.1% FG on that particular area.

The Warriors signed David Lee in the offseason and supposedly he should be the game changing player that the Warriors were really needing. But that didn’t happen, as with David Lee on the floor, the Warriors were still a bad defensive and rebounding team. However, note that Lee suffered a bad elbow injury in New York and since then, he didn’t look to be the same player all season long.

You won’t win many games especially on the road with such bad defense and rebounding issues and that explains why the Warriors went 10-31 on the road. However, at home the Warriors were a really potent team as of all the losing teams of the league they ended up having the best home record by going 26-15.

The biggest change of the Warriors under Keith Smart curiously happened on the offensive end. With Don Nelson, the Warriors were always on the top 3 fastest teams in the league, however with Smart, the Warriors were only the “6^th fastest team” of the league. That was why the Warriors allowed 6.7 fewer points per game last season than they did in 2009-10, as they simply played in a slower pace.

Also the Warriors were used to be an aggressive team in the Nellieball era, where they were an undersized team, but a fearless team that attacked the paint aggressively, but last season the Warriors by having FT/rate of just 24.1% were by far the worst team in the league in that department.

The Warriors front office didn’t like what they saw and for this season, they decided to hire former color commentator Mark Jackson to coach the team. Jackson doesn’t have any NBA coaching experience, but he certainly knows that they need to improve their defense in order to be a competitive team.

In this offseason, the Warriors signed Kwame Brown and by maintaining Andris Biedrins in the roster, it is clear that Jackson wants to play with a big lineup the majority of the time. This evidence is inevitable when you have two small players in the backcourt in Monta Ellis and Stephen Curry.

On an offensive standpoint, this duo worked really well as both averaged more than 5 assists per game and they have great skills in shooting the ball. The problem is on the other side of the floor, so head coach Mark Jackson has to find a way to protect his backcourt.

One of the possible solutions to solve this problem is to use a good defensive SG/SF on the best opposing backcourt offensive player and maybe that’s why the Warriors recently traded for former Pacers Brandon Rush, who is a serviceable player that plays some nice defense and he will be a valuable piece for Mark Jackson’s puzzle.

Guard Klay Thompson was selected in the first round of the draft from the Warriors and he fits exactly on what I’ve said before: a big guard (6-foot-7) that contrast with Ellis and Curry.

We can also expect a better season from David Lee. In his first season as a Warrior, Lee saw his numbers regress all across the board, however in my opinion, his elbow injury was a big factor for such regression. The sample is small but before he got injured in November 10 against the Knicks, Lee was averaging 11.7 rebounds per game!

In the first year of Mark Jackson’s era I don’t expect the Warriors to be a playoff team. It is extremely complicated to improve an awful defensive team with basically the same core of players but this is the way that Jackson needs to cross to improve the team.

Portland Trailblazers NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 17:03:19 GMT

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #30 90.6

OFFENSE: #10 105.6

DEFENSE: #14 104.2

With a good dose of health, the Portland Trailblazers would have been the “original” Oklahoma City Thunder: a contending team built almost exclusively via the draft. Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marcel Webster and Travis Outlaw were all drafted by the Blazers and if everything went right, they would have been a formidable young core of players ready to make a serious run for the NBA title.

Unfortunately, we all know what happened to Brandon Roy and there are some serious doubts about the ability of Greg Oden to play basketball in the future, so the Blazers simply have to move on.

For the third consecutive season, Nate McMillan’s team were a solid regular season team, but they were knocked down in the first round of the playoffs against the eventual NBA Champs Dallas Mavericks. They had the series tied 2-2, but Dallas caught fire in the last two games and the Blazers were just one of the Mavs victims in their Championship run.

Portland has been a very methodic offensive team under coach McMillan: they are the perennial slowest team in the league (ranked #30), while at the same time they are a great offensive rebounding team (ranked #3) that commits few turnovers per game (ranked #8). In a potential game that has fewer ball possessions than average, a combination of a good offensive rebounding team that doesn’t turn the ball over will maximize your chances to win the game and that is what Portland has been doing over the last years.

However the Blazers offensive suffered a considerable drop off in two crucial areas: 3pts shooting and free throws. After being a top 10 team in 3pts%, the Blazers shot just 34.5% behind the arc and they were the 4^th worst team in FT/rate with just 27.8%. I just can’t ignore the Brandon Roy factor on those drop offs because Roy’s FTA/game went from 6.8 to 2.9 last season, while his presence on the court opened up the floor for the Blazers.

Without Brandon Roy, the Blazers needed one reliable go-to player and they got LaMarcus Aldridge! He started the season with the “being the second best player of the team” mentality, but when he “decided” to be more aggressive and demand more the ball, he took his game to another level. In the months of January and February, Aldridge averaged more than 25 points and almost 10 rebounds per game – MVP-like numbers! We were used to see Aldridge being essentiality a mid range player, but last season Aldridge worked more near the basket: after averaging 3.9 FGA/game at the rim in the previous season, Aldridge boosted his numbers to 6.1 FGA/game! He is now the face of the franchise and the Blazers have in him one of the best frontcourt players of the league.

Midway the season, the Blazers traded for Gerald Wallace and he was an instant factor for the team. He is more known for his defense and terrific athletic ability, but with a Blazers uniform, Wallace averaged 15.8 points per game while shooting almost 50% from the field. The acquisition of Raymond Felton in this offseason for the Blazers will put Felton and Wallace together once again, like they were in Charlotte. We should not forget that the Bobcats were the ranked #1 defense in the league the last time they played together and both were in the top 15 in steals per game. A defensive improvement is likely going to happen by having Wallace for a full season and Felton running at the Point Guard position.

Portland has a lot of depth on the wings and they should be a tough team to beat on the perimeter. Nicolas Batum is still 23-years old and he is already considered one of the best defensive players of the league, while he keeps working on his offensive skills. They have in Wesley Matthews another versatile player that can play in both PG or SG positions because he has a strong body. To “replace” Brandon Roy, the Blazers signed Jamal Crawford in the free agency and Crawford will provide instant offense as he is the only Blazers player from their backcourt that can create a shot by himself. However he is coming from a down season last year in Atlanta, but playing near his hometown will be good for him.

Assuming that Oden may not play at all again this season, the Blazers have a thin frontcourt to complement Aldridge as Marcus Camby and Kurt Thomas are 37 and 39 years old. We can expect McMillan to be creative like he was last season by playing Aldridge as a center and put on the court Wallace and Batum at the same time. The Blazers have one of the most versatile rosters in the league and they will have to take advantage of that.

Portland isn’t a contender for this season, but they have been constantly underappreciated by the media after the departure of Brandon Roy. I expect them to be a playoff contending team and if Aldridge put similar numbers that he enjoyed in the second half of the season, I won’t be surprised if they battle for the home court advantage in the Western Conference.

Sacramento Kings NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Tue, 20 Dec 2011 17:00:14 GMT

SACRAMENTO KINGS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #3 98.0

OFFENSE: #26 100.6

DEFENSE: #20 106.3

After being one of the powerhouse teams in the early 2000’s, the Kings have been one of the most consistently bad teams in the league over the last years. For the third consecutive season, they failed to reach the 30-wins mark and that’s a good testament of how bad the Kings have been.

After winning the rookie of the year award, the Kings relied heavily in Tyreke Evans to be the face of the franchise but unfortunately, Evans couldn’t produce in the same high level of his rookie season. After shooting a respectable mark of 45.8% from the field, Evans regressed to shoot just 40.9% FG. However, he dealt with plantar fasciitis all season long and as we know, he is the type of player that needs all his explosiveness to produce because he isn’t a good long range shooter. He was one of the biggest reasons for the Kings' worst offensive season in the last 20 years.

The Kings ranked in the bottom five in turnover rate, 3-point percentage, mid-range shooting percentage and free throw percentage. The only thing that they did right was pursuing the offensive board: they were the best offensive rebounding team of the league by grabbing almost 30% of their missed shots. They had five guys -- Samuel Dalembert (12.4 percent), DeMarcus Cousins (10.5), Darnell Jackson (10.3), Carl Landry (10.0) and Jason Thompson (9.4) -- who grabbed at least nine percent of available offensive boards when they were in the game. By putting so many players near the basket, the Kings were obviously a good scoring team in the paint (ranked #3 with 45.1ppg) and they finished well at the rim by hitting 66.1% of the shots – 7^th best mark in the league.

Despite having a loaded frontcourt, the Kings were an awful interior defensive team! 2^nd worst team in points in the paint allowed with 46.0ppg and dead last in FG% allowed at the rim – they were the only team allowing more than 70% of the shots at the rim – 70 PERCENT!

Every franchise would love to start the roster around a good backcourt player and a dominant big player and the Kings potentially have these pieces in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins, who had a problematic rookie season with innumerous problems in and off the court. Head Coach Paul Westphal didn’t help because his role on the team was uncertain the whole season, but obviously Cousins didn’t seem to show the right work ethic and this could hurt his development as a player. He showed some glimpses of being a dominant center, but at the same time he shot 43% from the field, led the league by a large margin in fouls committed per game with 4.1 pf/game and only Dwight Howard committed more turnovers per game than him of all the frontcourt players of the league. Cousins has the potential to be a cornerstone of the franchise or another disappointing high draft pick, the outcome will depend on his work ethic.

Because they were such a bad perimeter offensive team, the Kings felt the urgency to address this problem. They re-signed Marcus Thornton who enjoyed a nice stint with the Kings in the second half of the last season while averaging 21.3 points per game & shooting 45% from the field. As a Kings player, Thornton boosted his assists numbers to 3.4 apg which was nice to see because he is primarily a one-dimensional player, so if he can improve his all around game, the Kings will have a serviceable player in him.

Drafting Jimmer Fredette was another step for the Kings’ plans to improve their outside shooting however like Thornton, Fredette could be a liability on the defensive end, so Paul Westphal should be aware of his rotations on the backcourt.

My biggest concern for the Kings this season is centered on their frontcourt. We already know how terrible defensively they were last season and for this season they basically lost Samuel Dalembert and signed J.J. Hickson and Chuck Hayes. J.J. Hickson showed last season why LeBron James is a great player because Hickson offensive numbers weren’t nowhere close to the numbers he had when James was in Cleveland. However his defense or lack of it was a bigger problem last season and I don’t know if he will help the Kings to not be the worst interior defensive team of the league this season. Chuck Hayes is a serviceable player despite his lack of size and his good hands and court vision will help the team ball movement, however will he be enough for the Kings?! NOTE: Hayes saw his contract being nullified as he didn’t pass the physical exams, so my concern about the Kings for this season just got bigger…

John Salmons is back to Sacramento and he will likely be the oldest starter of the team. After a great second half season with the Bucks in 09-10, Salmons heavily struggled last season and he was part of the worst offensive team of the league. The Kings have such a young roster that Salmons’ influence will be huge in a leadership role.

The Kings are one of the youngest teams of the league this season and this can be a good thing in a short schedule season. However in my opinion, the immaturity of their players will be a huge factor this season. They will deliver a big effort in a certain day and lay a big egg on the next one. I don’t think that the Kings will hang around for a playoff spot, but if they are well managed, they have the talent to be competitive against any opponent, but unfortunately the effort won’t be there for every game.

Dallas Mavericks NBA Season Preview 2011-12 by Andre Gomes

Andre Gomes — Mon, 19 Dec 2011 16:41:57 GMT

DALLAS MAVERICKS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #20 93.1

OFF #8 107.6

DEF #7 102.3

Dallas did exactly what people expected from them in the regular season: be one of the top seeds in the Western conference. They were one of the most fundamentally sound teams in the league, even though Dirk Nowitzki got injured and missed some games that resulted in six losses in a row. Without this injury, Dallas would have most likely been the top seed in their conference.

Offensively, Dallas has been typically a pure jump shooting team and the result of that was that they were the 2^nd worst team in scoring in the paint with just 36.7 ppg! They were also the 2^nd team with less FGA’s at the rim with 25.6 FGA/game and they didn’t even pursue their own misses, as they were the 5^th worst team in offensive rebounding, with a rate of jump 24.1%. The good news is that Dallas hit their shots last season. They were the best team in shooting “long two’s” (16-23 feet range) with 45.3% FG and they were also 3^rd in the league in eFG% shooting with 52.48%.

Defensively, Tyson Chandler was a huge addition for Dallas, but the truth must be told: Dallas was just marginally better defensively than they had been in the previous season – 102.3 vs 103.2 in terms of defensive efficiency! Same goes for points allowed in the paint – 41.7 ppg in 09-10 vs 41.6 ppg in 10-11. So, how did a team who was eliminated in the first round of the playoffs in the previous year become the NBA champion in the following season?

In my opinion, it was a combination of being hot and clutch in the right moment and most importantly to maximize their matchup advantages against their opponents.

Normally, a team isn’t expected to keep the same offensive effectiveness in the playoffs in comparison with the regular season. It’s normal for the teams to lose some effectiveness, as not only they face stronger opposition as the series remove some the surprise effect as the games go by. But that didn’t happen with Dallas! According to my numbers, Dallas had an offensive efficiency of 114.5 vs Portland, 117.7 vs Lakers, 115.9 vs Oklahoma City and 111.5 vs Miami in the finals! Speaking now of being clutch, Dirk Nowitzki was the ultimate definition of being a clutch player. During the playoffs, he attempted 186 FT’s and hit 94.1% of them, which is the highest percentage in NBA history among those who have attempted at least 65 free throws in a single postseason!

Rick Carlslie and his staff also did an amazing job by maximizing their matchup advantages. Against the Blazers, Jason Kidd was pivotal by shooting 9-14 FG (6-10 3PTS) & 7-11 FG (3-6 3PTS) in the first two games. Portland decided to double team Dirk with their guards while choosing Kidd to be the Mavs player left wide open. The Mavs punished that. Then, the Blazers decided to respect Kidd’s long range shooting. With that, Dirk got more space and caved the Blazers with 58pts in the final two games of the series.

Against the Lakers, the Mavs took advantage of the slow footed big men of the Lakers. The team-help defense of the Lakers was ridiculously bad and the Mavs with their great ball movement torched the Lakers from the 3PTS line. In the Game 4 of the series, the Lakers decided to give up the middle to attempt to stop the hot shooters and so, the Mavs used Barea and his penetrations to torch them. Barea played just 27 minutes, but shot 9-14 FG and dished 8 assists – team high!

In the conference final versus Oklahoma City, the Mavs had a huge matchup advantage in using Dirk Nowitzki down low against Ibaka and Dirk really torched them. Defensively, they were conservative in the first two games of the series, but when they unleashed their awesome zone defense against the Thunder, Oklahoma City simply couldn’t hit from the outside (as they usually struggle against zone defenses). Note that in the last 3 games of the series (all Mavs wins), the Thunder shot 1-17, 2-13 & 5-16 from the 3PTS line, in a combined effort of 8-46 (17%)!

Finally against Miami, Tyson Chandler was really a pivotal piece of the Mavs win, as he is a terrific help defender and for several times he ended up guarding Wade or Lebron in the final seconds of a possession. In almost any case around the league, this would result in a huge mismatch in favor of the Heat, but with a great leaping ability and footwork, Chandler made a terrific job in defending Wade and Lebron. Props also for Kidd and Marion for their defensive assignments against those two players. Offensively, Dallas struggled to hit their shots from the outside and so, they relied on the free throw line and a clutch Dirk to beat Miami. When they started to hit the 3PTS shots, Miami was done: 13-19 & 11-26 3PTS in the last two games of the series.

And so, Dallas was able to be the 2010-2011 NBA champions!

Weirdly, with the new CBA deal, the Mavs with Mark Cuban weren’t as aggressive as expected to try to keep the same team from last season. They didn’t pursuit Caron Butler, they knew Tyson Chandler wasn’t staying with them and even they JJ Barea go to Minnesota! Instead, Mark Cuban used the Lakers sense of urgency to save money to basically get Lamar Odom in exchange of nothing! Plus, they also used the Suns buyout of Vince Carter to get him. With a tough schedule with such short rests between the games and with the Mavs being such a veteran team, they really need to have a deep roster and Mark Cuban is doing a really nice job!

They have now multiple guards: Kidd, Carter, Beaubois, West and Jones. I have some doubts about the utility of signing Vince Carter. Last season, Carter was “pathetic” in Phoenix maybe because of lack of motivation, but we are talking about professional players, right?! He seems to not work hard when he doesn’t have the ball on his hands, but the context of this situation might be good for him: playing alongside Jason Kidd with the NBA champs and have a great big man to perform the pick n rolls that he likes to do so much. But if he doesn’t’ show up to play, then he’s done for good.

The issue will be on the frontcourt. Haywood can be like Chandler when it comes to guard 1*1 the opposing center, as he is a good defensive center. The problem is that Haywood doesn’t have the speed and lateral quickness to rotate defensively like Chandler did for the Mavericks. Odom is a great player, but he isn’t a center, so Rick Carlslie will have to make some magic in using the right lineup in the right moments. Dirk can play with Odom at the same time as a center and Odom’s good court vision will help the team.

We can expect the Mavs to have a good ball movement once again. Are they the favorite to win the NBA and the West this season? In my opinion, I don’t think so. They will need similar circumstances from last season to win it all again. Dirk will always be clutch, but the Mavs’ offensive efficiency from last season in the playoffs will be very tough to repeat again. Nevertheless, we can expect the usual Mavs for the regular season and be once again a top seed in the West.