NBA Daily Message Card 01/08

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NBA Daily Message Card 01/08

 

NBA results:

NBA 2006-07: +94.62 units     | 1-2-3* MM: +32.21 units 
NBA 2007-08: +144.07 units
NBA 2008-09: +22.77 units
NBA 2009-10: +98.36 units


NBA 2010/11 SEASON RECORD:  (+58.15 units)

NBA 2010/11 SEASON RECORD 1-2-3 MM:  (+19.75 units)


Ranked #1 NBA at Sports-Watch of LV

Ranked #1 NBA at National Sports Monitor


NBA Yesterday’s recap:

3 units on OVER NJN/WAS 189.5   LOSS

3 units on WASHINGTON (-4.5)   WIN

3 units on UNDER SAS/IND 200.5   WIN

3 units on UNDER CHI/PHI 191   LOSS

4 units on OVER TOR/BOS 198.5   WIN

4 units on MEMPHIS (-2)   WIN

3 units on PORTLAND (-2.5)   WIN

3 units on UNDER MIA/MIL 183.5   LOSS

3 units on GOLDEN STATE (-10.5)   WIN

3 units on NEW TORK (+2.5)   WIN

3 units on UNDER NOH/LAL 189   LOSS


Daily Message:

What a day for us! Last night we went 7-4 in our plays including hitting my 2 Top Plays with the Grizzlies and the Over TOR/BOS with some ease. For those who read my detailed write up in the TOR/BOS game, they know that I finished that particular series 4-0 in total plays. Hardly I will find a NBA matchup, in which I have such an accurate read like in that particular series.

We finished the night by going 5-0 on my sides plays and 2-4 on my total plays. Despite a high scoring first half, we should have won the Under MIA/MIL, but the game went to Overtime. Nevertheless, it is quite strange for me to struggle a lit bit on my total plays. I remember that last year I had more success on totals rather on side plays, but this season the process has reversed. The good news for us is that it is easier for me to make the proper adjustments in the pace/offensive/defensive efficiency projections than adjusting the matchup’s errors that I’ve eventually committed.
 
We are now +58.15 units for the season (using a 1-2-3 units MM: +19.75un) and for this week we are 21-13-2 on our plays. We’ve already established a comfortable profit for this month of January w/+15.90un (using a 1-2-3 units MM: +8.57un).

For today, we have a card of 8 games with some teams playing back to back games. The weekends are traditionally strong days for us (except if I take the “Over” in early games), so I’m looking forward to just keep rolling. I’m working on the card right now, so the first update will be released soon.

Injury report: Devin Harris is probable; Marvin Williams is doubtful; Jermaine O'Neal is questionable; Luol Deng is probable; Aaron Brooks is questionable; Stephen Jackson is probable; Tyrus Thomas is questionable and Dirk Nowitzki is still out.

 

FREE PLAY #1:

NBA - 509 Boston Celtics @ 510 Chicago Bulls

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line:
Boston by 2 points

Ok, so the Bulls have lost consecutive games and for tonight they have a “ double revenge” game against the Celtics and this is enough for them to be 2-points favorites against the best Eastern conference team?!

In normal circumstances, the Bulls would have a physical edge over the Celtics… after all we are dealing with the young guys vs. the veteran team. However this is not the case for tonight’s contest. The Bulls will play tonight their fourth game in just 5 days and they had to travel for every single game: TOR - @ NJN - @ PHI – BOS.

On the other end, the Celtics also played last night (against the Raptors) but because it was a blowout win, they could rest their starters for tonight’s game:

Paul Pierce 28min
Davis 33min
Shaq 21min
Ray Allen 30min
Rondo 26min

In fact, this is a spot in which we should avoid to fade the Celtics! During this “big 3 era”, the Celtics have had 11 games on the road playing in b2b games while being the “underdog”, their record? 10-1 ATS & 9-2 SU! Already in this season they covered the spread @Dallas and @Atlanta in similar circumstances.

With Rajon Rondo back at 100%, the Celtics have simply the best ball movement in the league and no team is more “clutch” than them! Against the San Antonio Spurs (the best team in the league – record wise), the Celtics showed their usual poise down the stretch.

I understand that the Chicago Bulls will be fired for tonight but they are struggling as of late. This is a big surprise for me because they have faced mediocre teams lately: Detroit, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Cleveland, Toronto, New Jersey and last night the 76ers…still they had some problems to defeat them!

Carlos Boozer has been great as of late, but the Celtics even without Kevin Garnett are still a great team in protecting the paint. Against the Spurs they allowed just 28 points in the paint!

The Bulls might be fired up but the Celtics players also have the motivation to face their former assistant head coach and beat him once again, we just can’t forget this!

In my opinion this will be a tight game but down the stretch the Celtics have the edge in terms of execution and that’s why I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Boston Celtics (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

 

FREE PLAY #2:

NBA - 501 Washington Wizards @ 502 Charlotte Bobcats

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line:
Charlotte pk/pk

This is the third consecutive time that I’m riding the Washington Wizards as I feel that they are playing their best basketball of the season and sooner or later their dismal 0-18 road record will come to an end – actually I think that they will win tonight.

I’ve watched their last 2 games and finally the Wizards showed one thing that they were lacking all season – team chemistry! Against the 76ers on the road they were “in the game” before the 76ers pull away midway the final quarter and last game against the Nets, they didn’t have any problems to defeat them after starting the game with a 21-3 run. In both games, the Wizards showed a great ball movement with 26/13 and 23/9 A/TO ratios – this is not usual for a “lowly team”! Rashard Lewis has been a nice addition and his long range is a tremendous asset in a team that was struggling to hit from the outside.

Despite being a back to back game on the road I just don’t expect them to be lazy or have any lack of effort. A 0-18 road record is a pretty good motivation for them…they want to win on the road!

On the other side, the Charlotte Bobcats are coming from road win against the Timberwolves. Despite being severely shorthanded, they were able to perform a late rally and send the game to overtime and eventually win. I’ve watched that game and honestly it was all about the Wolves’ usual self destruction down the stretch than anything else. Yes, the Bobcats have won 3 of their last 5 games but those wins were against Detroit, Cleveland and Minnesota.

Take the Washington Wizards tonight as my Single Dime Play!

Split the wager:

Pick: 2 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Washington Wizards (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
Pick: 1 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Washington Wizards ML @ +170 / 2.70 on 5 Dimes

 

  • Obviously that didn't matter at all as Ilyasova stepped in and stepped up BIG time. Laugher from start to finish. The Nets looked HORRIBLE tonight and I'm not sure it all can be attributed to the absence of Harris.

  • Bogut OUT against the Nets with a virus!!! Doh... There goes a HUGE angle in this game with his history against Lopez. He played HUGE minutes (for him) last night and I remembered wondering why. Big game at home against the Heat, yes. But not how they've been dealing with Bogut's minutes to this point in the year...

  • Way to keep on rollin' Andre! With you every step of the way here. I was actually at the Bucks game last night and I tried putting the total I played out of my head. Only later did I realize that if  Boykins hadn't made that left-handed bank layup over Ilgauskas with 1.5 seconds left we would've had the Under. The pace was definitely not in our favor in the first half (in terms of the score), but the Bucks really clamped down on D in the second half like you said. Those kinds of losses are easy for me to take since you were right on it. Keep doing EXACTLY what you're doing man - results are fantastic since I bought your season package.

  • Final Update released: 7 plays for tonight, one of them is a Top Play - DOUBLE DIME PLAY! 2nd Free Play released as well (see initial post), good luck to all!

    Regards

  • Hi fundamento, yes I'll release one more free play! Working on the write ups right now....

  • Hola Andre,will be more free picks today?

  • Free Play's detailed write up has been added!

  • Second Update: 2 plays added - Single Dime Plays. Free Play released (see initial post).  

  • nice job last night andre...keep up the good work

  • First Update: one play has been added - Single Dime Play!