NBA Daily Message Card 01/04

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NBA Daily Message Card 01/04

 

NBA results:

NBA 2006-07: +94.62 units     | 1-2-3* MM: +32.21 units 
NBA 2007-08: +144.07 units
NBA 2008-09: +22.77 units
NBA 2009-10: +98.36 units


NBA 2010/11 SEASON RECORD:  (+41.85 units)

NBA 2010/11 SEASON RECORD 1-2-3 MM:  (+12.38 units)


Ranked #1 NBA at Sports-Watch of LV

Ranked #2 NBA in Net Wins at The Sports Monitor of OK


NBA Yesterday’s recap:

3 units on ORLANDO (-10.5)  WIN

3 units on OVER MIN/BOS 203   LOSS

3 units on MINNESOTA (+8)   WIN

3 units on UNDER PHI/NOH 188.5   WIN

3 units on HOUSTON (+7)   PUSH


Daily Message:

We started the week in a high note as last night we went 3-1-1 on our NBA plays for a profitable card. We are now +41.85 units for the season (using a 1-2-3 units MM: +12.38un) and I’m looking forward to have a successful month of January.

Yesterday I’ve talked about how the “Unders” are cashing since the Christmas day due to the innumerous games that NBA teams had to play with short rest and last night the “Under” went 4-2. Note that all the 4 Unders cashed by double digits points and if we take in account that the game HOU/DEN ended being an Over by just half point, we could be easily talking about a 5-1 “Under night”.

For today, we have a card of 7 games to work. I’m working on the card right now, so the first update will be released soon.

NOTE: I’ve made an update on my past records (2006-07) and now they are available on a 1-2-3un* MM system.

Injury report: Drew Gooden is out; Danilo Gallinari is out (2-3 weeks); Andrea Bargnani and Jerryd Bayless are probable while Jose Calderon is questionable; Xavier Henry is questionable; Dirk Nowitzki is questionable and Joel Przybilla is probable.

 

FREE PLAY:

 

NBA - 505 Toronto Raptors @ 506 Chicago Bulls

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

Projected line: 204 points

In my opinion we have some edge with the Over in this contest...

The Chicago Bulls had a busy schedule to end the year with 5 games in just 8 days. Derrick Rose and Carlos Boozer were asked to carry the load on the offensive but with so many minutes logged in such short span, these two players had some subpar performances. For tonight the Bulls had 2 days off to rest and prepare this contest so I’m expecting a nice offensive performance from them, especially against a team like the Raptors.

Their defense has been spectacular as of late. However I just can’t ignore the fact that they faced Cleveland, New Jersey, Milwaukee and Detroit in their last 4 games and in case of you didn’t notice we are talking about (offensive efficiency rankings):

29 Cleveland 0.977
26 New Jersey 0.987
30 Milwaukee 0.971
18 Detroit 1.021

All their opponents during this recent stretch are/were mediocre offensive teams so the Bulls didn’t have any problem in shutting them down, the Raptors are a more offensive talented team (especially with Bargnani back).

On the other side, the Raptors will finally count with their best offensive player: Andrea Bargani.

They have been playing in their usual style but without Bargnani they really don’t have any interior threat on the offensive end. Against the Celtics in the last game, the Raptors scored 29 fast break points and had a 19-2 edge on the offensive boards. However they couldn’t take advantage of that because they didn’t have any offensive skilled player down low.

These two teams already faced each other this season and the Bulls won 110-93 in Toronto. Note that Andrea Bargnani didn’t play that game and Noah was still active for the Bulls (the combination of these two facts automatically is a good sign for an offensive game). Both teams combined to score 32+23 fast break points and 42+62 points in the paint! I expect similar numbers for tonight because this is exactly the Raptors game plan while Derrick Rose with space on the open court will push up the pace.

Take the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Over 199 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek

  • VegasButcher, for this particular contest I have a true 50/50 line so my fair line is Memphis pk.

    OKC is on a bounce back spot so we can expect them to be aggressive early on. I'm anticipating them to go at least 30x to the FT line.

    However the Grizzlies have a tremendous edge on the frontcourt against OKC. In the last game they simply dominated LAL down low w/50 points in the paint, 12-6 edge on offensive boards. Note that OKC has the 4th worst interior defense in the league allowing 44.5ppg in the paint!

    Plus, MEM is ridding high after a  blowout loss on the road against the Champs...

    I have a play in this contest but it's a total play

  • NOTE: We have 8 plays for tonight, one of them is a Double Dime Play. Because it is a large card I ran out of time to make detailed write ups, they are back tomorrow, good luck!

    However I've made a detailed write up for tonight's free play (posted in the 1st post).

  • What are your thoughts on Thunder/Grizzlies today?  I like Grizzlies at +1.5 at home....  Any thoughts on this one?

  • NOTE: 3 plays added for tonight, one of them is the FREE PLAY (see above).

    I have more pending plays for tonight, but as almost every one is an anti-public play, I've decided to delay the release of the plays, in order to get some extra value in the lines, the final update will be released at 6 PM EST, thanks