NBA 02/09 Pistons/Bucks Analysis and Play

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NBA 02/09 Pistons/Bucks Analysis and Play

Detroit
Pace: 91.4 (29th of 30)
Offense: 100.2 (26th of 30)
Defense: 106.0 (20th of 30)

Milwaukee
Pace: 97.1 (9th of 30)
Offense: 101.3 (23th of 30)
Defense: 101.2 (8th of 30)


This is a special time in the season where we can find some teams focused in winning to improve their chances for the playoff picture while others teams are just looking ahead to the break and for some couple of days to rest. In my opinion this is the perfect scenario for tonight’s contest between the Bucks and the Pistons.

The Bucks are playing great basketball as of late by winning 7 of their last 10 games and covering the spread in 9 of the last 10 games. I’ve already said several times that center Andrew Bogut is playing great basketball this season and in the last 10 games, Bogut is averaging 18.2 points per game while shooting a whopping mark of 67% from the field! Plus he is grabbing 8.9 rebounds per game and 2.2 blocks per game during this span! The Bucks are caring the ball as well with 21.8 assists per game vs. just 11.6 TO/game L10 and now with Jerry Stackhouse coming off the bench they have one of the most complete and best benches of the league. The mix of these factors makes the Bucks one of the hottest teams in the league in the last couple of weeks.

Meanwhile the Pistons are struggling even with the healthy bodies of Richard Hamilton and Prince. In fact, I think that with these two players on the court, the team chemistry is just terrible and head coach John Kuester simply doesn’t know what to do to find the best rotations. Note that they are paying $10M to Ben Gordon this season and he played less than 20 minutes per game in the Pistons last 5 games. The Pistons are 2-6 L8 games with their 2 wins coming from against the….Nets and still the Nets had legit chances to win those games. In the last game we can see one interesting and intriguing factor. The Pistons as a team shot 52.1% from the field and connected 8-12 behind the arc. However look for the Pistons “big 3” (Stuckey, Hamilton and Prince) field goal numbers:

Rodney Stuckey 4-13
Richard Hamilton 5-14
Tayshaun Prince 2-6

The “Big 3” combined to shot 11-33 from the field – a 33.3% clip while the rest of the crew has shot 27-40 FG – 67.5% from the field! Still, these three players played a total of 103 minutes and that’s a great example of is tough to have the right team chemistry in a team.

For tonight’s contest we can expect a focused Bucks team on the court:

"We're trying to finish before the break on a strong note, and I think we will," coach Scott Skiles said.
"These are two huge games right here. We really have a chance to put ourselves in a position where every game is meaningful for quite a while.

"The guys know that we've got important games coming out of the break, and I think that can benefit us."
Meanwhile the Pistons have tomorrow a “winnable” game at home against the Kings so I wouldn’t be surprised if this game is near to be out of reach they will simply give up thinking in tomorrow’s game. Note that the Bucks have the depth on their bench to solidify a blowout line. They have the third best bench in the league with 38.2 points per game and we can count on them to finish the job.

My projected line in this contest is the Bucks receiving a blowout line and anything less than a double digits line for them gives us the proper edge to make a play with the Bucks tonight.


Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 Milwaukee Bucks (-8)

  • Just a note: My second Triple Dime Play of this season has just been uploaded into the package, good luck for tonight.