NBA 01/30 Heat/Bucks Analysis and Play

Miami
Pace: 93.5 (27th of 30)
Offense: 104.2 (17th of 30)
Defense: 103.1 (13th of 30)

Milwaukee
Pace: 97.6 (6th of 30)
Offense: 101.1 (23th of 30)
Defense: 101.1 (8th of 30)

In my opinion, we are getting some value with the Bucks tonight, as according to my numbers, they should be favored by 2 full possessions in here and anything bellow this key number puts the value on the Bucks.

Miami played last night in Detroit against the Pistons and didn’t have any problem to beat a pathetic Pistons team. Even though it was an easy game, the Heat didn’t have good news after the game, as PG Mario Chalmers got injured in the game and he is doubtful for tonight and even Wade and O’Neal are banged up for tonight’s contest. The Heat used a fantastic team defense effort last night, but the problem for them will be to duplicate the effort in back to back games, that’s why have failed to cover the spread in the last 4 back to back games and they were far away from being competitive: 78-118 @ San Antonio, 89-118 @ Utah, 80-98 @ Oklahoma City and 65-104 @ Charlotte.

Meanwhile, the Bucks are playing better as of late than their results might indicate. An ATS record is a good measure for their competitiveness and the Bucks are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games. In my opinion, there are 3 factors for such improvement lately: 1. the team has found the proper team chemistry after knowing that Michael Redd is out for the season, as Carlos Delfino is now a natural starter. In the last games, they showed a terrific ball movement with 3.57, 1.25, 2.25, 1.67 and 1.89 A/TO ratios. 2. Andrew Bogut is playing unbelievable good basketball lately and he is a force down low for the Bucks. 3. Brandon Jennings is back to life after a huge slump, as he has hit 8-16, 5-16 and 8-18 from the field in the last 3 games.

The Bucks enjoyed 2 days off to rest and to prepare this game and they need badly to win in order to get a better position in the playoff picture and tonight against the Heat, they have a favorable spot that I believe they will take advantage of it. Take the Bucks in here.