3 Plays for today:

ATP Auckland - John Isner vs Albert Montanes
ATP Sydney - Richard Gasquet vs Julien Benneteau

I can't recall the last time someone actually made it to a semi final of an ATP tournament without facing a single Top 200 player in the previous rounds. But that's exactly what happened with Montanes this week, as he defeated the world numbers 456, 332 and 209 to get into the semi finals. In fact, let's face it: there would be no other way Montanes could actually made it to a semi final of an ATP tournament outside clay without such an easy draw. The Spanish player is a claycourter, with no major weapons to do well on fast surfaces and I expect him to get crushed by the big server and powerful hitter John Isner. The American had a really tough draw, as he faced Garcia-Lopez, Monaco and Robredo to get into this round and with him more than used by now in facing consistent baseliners this week, I expect Isner to comfortably get the win today against the easiest player he will face this week. The American should be able to advance to his fourth career final in here.

Richard Gasquet has been playing very well this week, even though he struggled on returning serve yesterday in the second set against Starace, but I guess that was just because the first set was so easy that Gasquet relaxed too much and almost ended up losing the set. Gasquet is obviously a great hardcourt player and he has been showing that this week with great wins over Feliciano Lopez and Benjamin Becker and I believe he is clearly heading to his best form, something he wasn't able to do last season. He will face a fellow French player, Julien Benneteau, who had a quite easy draw this week. First, he faced an ultra tired Dudi Sela, then the lucky loser Taylor Dent and finally Leonardo Mayer, who is talented but surely not with the level of a player like Gasquet. Gasquet is 11-1 as a favorite (<1.50) on hardcourt against fellow Frenchmen (11 wins in a row) since 2006, while Benneteau  is 2-9 on his last 11 matches as an underdog (>2.00) against his fellow countrymates. Gasquet has easily defeated Benneteau in the only time these two have faced each other and I believe that will happen again in today's match.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on John Isner ML x Richard Gasquet ML @ -102 on 5 Dimes

ATP Auckland - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Arnaud Clement

I don't believe this match will be close, as very few matches are close when Kohlschreiber is on-fire like he is this week. The German player has defeated all his three opponents by a huge margin (6-2 6-3; 6-4 6-1; 6-3 6-1) and honestly I rate his second round and quarter final opponents (Thomaz Bellucci and Marc Gicquel) above Arnaud Clement on hardcourt and so, I don't expect Clement to have any chance to handle Kohlschreiber, who is one of the most amazing baseliners when he is on, as he can hit winners from every spot in the court, due to his very powerful forehand and amazing backhand. Kohlschreiber has an edge in every single aspect of this matchup (serve, baseline rallies, confidence) and even though Clement is coming from two great wins over David Ferrer and Jurgen Melzer, these two players lack the power to overpower Clement, unlike Kohlschreiber, whose huge ground strokes will put Clement on the running the whole day. The French player may have a great defensive game, but so does Bjorn Phau, Andreas Seppi, Tommy Robredo, Novak Djokovic and Juan Carlos Ferrero for example and still Kohlschreiber defeated them over the past twelve months. I expect Kohlschreiber to be all over Clement's serve in today's match and win both sets by at least a break of difference, covering the spread in that way. Take Kohlschreiber minus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Philipp Kohlschreiber (-3,5 Games) @ -110 on The Greek



WTA Sydney - Serena Williams vs Elena Dementieva

This is the final most people were expecting and it's hard to forget how these two dominated the Australian part of the season in 2009. Now both players are back to the spotlight on this tournament and I expect this match to be a really close one. Serena Williams is obviously a better player than Elena Dementieva, however motivation counts a lot on these matches and besides that, Dementieva is becoming a really tough matchup for Serena, as it was seen most recently on Wimbledon and Toronto last season. Serena lacks the motivation and the intensiveness to play at her really best outside the later stages of Grand Slams and that was clearly visible when she almost lost to Aravane Rezai in the semi finals. Serena was down 3-6 3-5 and if it wasn't for a choke by Rezai, Serena would be out of this tournament by now. On the other side, Dementieva has been playing very well this week and she really has no problems in finding the right motivation to play at her best on these lower tier tournaments. She has the game to trouble Serena and with the American playing at about 50% of her intensiveness, I believe Dementieva has a great shot of retaining the title that she won last season. The Russian destroyed Serena in the semi finals of this tournament last season by 6-3 6-1 and even though that result won't surely be repeated, I rate this match as a clear 50/50 match and so, I'll gladly get this bonus of 2 games for Dementieva. Take the Russian plus the games in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Elena Dementieva (+2 Games) @ +100 The Greek