ATP Auckland - Tommy Robredo vs Simon Greul
This is the
first Double Dime of the 2010 season and I really hope we are as
successful on these plays, as we are being on the regular ones until
now. Simon Greul is the kind of opponent Tommy Robredo eats for
breakfast. The German player has some talent and firepower, but he is
just way too inconsistent to stay competitive against a player like
Robredo, who always return every shot with a lot of depth, especially
from his forehand wing. Robredo has already reached the final of this
tournament and he looked clearly in-form during the Hopman Cup, where
he won all his four matches, including wins over Andy Murray and
Lleyton Hewitt. The Spanish player never has a problem with lowly
opponents on hardcourt and in fact, he is 25-0 SU since 2004 on this
surface in matches where he is priced at 1.25 or lower. But not only he
wins these matches, he destroys his opponents, as he is 15-0 ATS and
13-2 Under on his last 15 matches on this spot. I really never had a
doubt to make a selection on this match a Double Dime one, I just had
doubts in choosing the spread or the under. I took the under, as a 6-4
6-4 win may happen and Robredo would fail to cover the spread, but
still the match would easily go under. I expect some kind of a 6-4 6-2
type of result in here and so, I'm taking the under in a Double Dime
Selection.
Pick: 2 units (Double Dime) on Under 21,5 Games (US Books are yet to open the total lines for this contest)
ATP Auckland - Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Michael Lammer
The
difference between these two players is huge and the odds aren't
reflecting that. Juan Carlos Ferrero showed last season that he is
still a very good hardcourt player and even though, he will be making
his season debut today, I don't think he will have a single problem in
taking out a journeyman currently placed 209 in the rankings. Michael
Lammer had a dream draw in the qualifying and managed to make it to the
main draw, but let's face it: he has no business on this level and he
won't have any kind of solution to handle the game variety of Ferrero
in here. The Spanish player may even have a slow start, but then he
will roll over the Swiss player, whose poor serve is easily be exposed
by Ferrero. A spread of just 4,5 games doesn't reflect the difference
between these two players and so, I'll be taking Ferrero minus the
games in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Juan Carlos Ferrero (-4,5 Games) @ -145 on 5 Dimes
ATP Auckland - Philipp Kohlschreiber vs Thomaz Bellucci
I believe everything has a limit. Even though Kohlschreiber was
terrible in the Hopman Cup and Bellucci has begun the 2010 season in
good form, there is no way the German player should be the underdog in
here for the simple reason he is clearly the better player of the two.
Kohlschreiber is a former winner of this tournament and looking at his
good win yesterday, I believe he is headed to another big run on this
tournament. He is a very complete player and with his great ground
strokes from both wings, I believe he will be able to get the upper
hand over Bellucci, who has already played a lot this season and who
may be headed to a physical letdown mainly because of that. I trust
Kohlschreiber to make this match highly competitive and then, I expect
him to use his experienced to get the win at the end. The value of this
match is clearly on the side of Kohlschreiber and so, I'll be taking
him in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Philipp Kohlschreiber ML @ -102 on 5 Dimes
ATP Sydney - Richard Gasquet vs Benjamin Becker
ATP Sydney - Lleyton Hewitt vs Andreas Seppi
Richard Gasquet easily defeated Feliciano Lopez in the first round,
showing that he is really in great form and fired up to play tennis
after his suspension. He will now face Benjamin Becker, a great matchup
for Gasquet, who can handle the firepower of his opponents quite well,
especially when they miss one shot on every two hit like Becker usually
does. The German player was able to beat a disappointing Chela, but
Gasquet is from another championship and I expect the French player to
easily win this match.
Lleyton Hewitt wasn't exactly great on the Hopman Cup, but he still
won two matches and just lost a match against Robredo when Australia
was already eliminated. I know Seppi is tradicionally a tough matchup
for Hewitt, however the Italian player isn't in great form right now,
just like he was when he defeated Hewitt those two times (in Sydney
2006, he made it to the semi finals from the qualifying and in
Rotterdam 2008, he defeated Rafael Nadal). With the help of the crowd,
I expect Hewitt to outplay Seppi from the baseline, while exposing
Seppi's average at best serve. Hewitt has never lost on his first match
in Sydney in eight participations and I don't expect that to happen
today. The Australian should get a comfortable win in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Richard Gasquet ML x Lleyton Hewitt ML @ -115 on 5 Dimes
WTA Hobart - Carla Suarez Navarro vs Alicia Molik
I took Sania Mirza to beat Alicia Molik in the first round, but the
Indian player was horrible the whole match and still she almost won the
match! That's how poor Molik is currently playing, as even though she
can beat Top 200 players, she really can't be competitive against a
really decent player like Suarez Navarro. The Spanish player is a great
baseliner, being able to hit very well from both wings and I expect her
to use her good defensive game and counter punching to outplay a slow
and backhand-less Molik. The Australian has just her serve and forehand
to help her in today's match and even though that was enough against a
terrible Mirza, that just isn't enough against a complete player like
Suarez Navarro. Take the Spanish player to win in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Carla Suarez Navarro ML @ -150 on The Greek
ATP Sydney - Marcos Baghdatis vs Viktor Troicki
I
guess the oddmakers haven't still forgotten about Baghdatis' loss by
0-6 1-6 against Berdych last week because he should really be a much
clear favorite in here. The Cypriot, barring that no show, is playing
well and he showed that in the first round by easily taking out the
in-form Nick Lindahl by 6-2 7-5. Baghdatis is serving well and hitting
his ground strokes with conviction, something he lacked last season. He
will now face Viktor Troicki, who would be a respectable opponent for
Baghdatis in here if it wasn't for his terrible spot. He played semi
finals in Doha last week and after such a big effort, he played a long
match yesterday against Serra, where Troicki really struggled, even
though the score doesn't show that. Troicki will be playing a back to
back match today, while Baghdatis had one day to rest and with the help
of the crowd, I expect the more talented Baghdatis to comfortably get
the win in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Marcos Baghdatis ML @ -125 on 5 Dimes
ATP Sydney - Mardy Fish vs Evgeny Korolev
Yesterday
I took Mardy Fish to beat Carsten Ball, because the odds were
ridiculous for the much more talented Fish. Today, I am basically doing
the same thing. Mardy Fish is back and he is already playing like a Top
30 player once again. He is serving extremely well, his backhand is
sharp as always and his net game continues to give him the ability to
shorten the points when it is necessary. He is confident and happy for
playing after a long injury lay-off and I expect him to comfortably
defeat the inconsistent Korolev in here. The Russian (now bought by
Kazakhstan) defeated Querrey yesterday, but that was such a terrible
played match by both players that it's hard to call it a good win.
Korolev is much more inconsistent than Fish, especially on serve and
while Fish will be serving aces the whole match, Korolev will most
likely serve more double faults than aces, like it is usual for him.
Mardy Fish has won the only match between the two in the past and I
expect him to do the exact same thing today. Take Fish to win in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Mardy Fish ML @ -126 on 5 Dimes