4 plays for tonight:
ATP Brisbane - Mardy Fish vs Marcos Baghdatis
In
theory, this may look like a great match, as Baghdatis is a former Top
10 player and Fish was inside the Top 20 less than a year ago, but the
problem is that Fish won't surely be able to live up the hype of this
match, as it will be his first match since a season-ending knee injury
back in August of 2009.
Marcos Baghdatis is finally coming back to his best level, after
spending part of the 2009 season close or even outside the Top 100 due
to some injuries. All problems seem to be solved now, as Baghdatis won
his last 10 matches of the 2009 season, finishing the season by winning
the ATP tournament of Stockholm. Now, Baghdatis is back to Australia,
where he basically plays at home due to the huge Greek immigration Down
Under. He is known for being a player who becomes almost unstoppable
when he has some momentum and now fully confident and motivated,
Baghdatis won't have problems in playing at his real level, which is
clearly of a Top 15 player at least. With his good first serve and his
awesome shot making skills from both wings, Baghdatis is capable of
beating anybody on a hardcourt surface and a struggling Mardy Fish
won't be an exception of that.
It has been almost 5 months since Mardy Fish played his last match
and let's face it that he basically didn't play on his last match
against Rajeev Ram in New Haven, where Fish could barely move, losing
the match by 6-3 6-3 against a pretty limited player outside super fast
surfaces. Fish had a season-ending knee surgery and he is now coming
back to the circuit. Even if he was at 100%, Baghdatis would be a
horrible matchup for him, as the Cypriot with his great hitting from
both wings can easily expose Fish's poor forehand and lateral movement,
putting the American player on a defensive position, where he doesn't
feel comfortable at all. That was why Baghdatis easily destroyed Fish
in the third round of the Australian Open back in 2008 by 6-2 6-4 6-4
and honestly, I don't expect anything very different to happen in
today's match. Baghdatis looks back at his real level and he will be
playing with the crowd on his side, while Fish will surely struggle to
find his rhythm on his first match in 5 months, getting outplayed on
the baseline by Baghdatis. With Fish on his best level, a spread of 3
games would be fair, but with the American player still trying to find
his rhythm, such a short spread is not acceptable in here and so, I'll
be taking Baghdatis minus the games.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Marcos Baghdatis (-3 Games) @ -128 on 5Dimes
ATP Brisbane - Bernard Tomic vs Oleksandr Dolgopolov
It's not easy to handle the pressure of the media when your country
needs a new tennis champion. Donald Young knows that better than anyone
and Bernard Tomic is also beginning to feel that. The Australian player
is still struggling to be competitive in the challenger circuit and
honestly, I believe he will need at least one more season until he is
ready to really be competitive at this level and finally enter the Top
100. Still, he received a wildcard for the main draw of this
tournament, however he will face a player who will be a nightmare
matchup for him.
Oleksandr Dolgopolov isn't a very known player. That's for sure.
But that doesn't mean he is a weak player at all. Dolgopolov is one of
the most competitive players in the always tough European challenger
circuit and with 21 years old, he isn't very far from entering the Top
100. Even though he plays at his best on claycourts, he is still a
pretty decent hardcourt player, just like he showed by qualifying for
the main draw of this tournament. Dolgopolov had a 2009 season record
of 39-16 (!) and he has already started showing this season that he
won't stop winning against lowly players. Bernard Tomic may be more
talented than the typical opponent of the Ukrainian, but Tomic is also
highly inconsistent on the baseline and his lateral movement is as slow
as Karlovic on a bad day. Dolgopolov is a great baseliner, very
accurate from both wings and always returning the ball with a lot of
depth, something which will cause the slow Tomic to struggle a lot in
the baseline rallies.
Bernard Tomic is struggling a lot over the past months because he
can't stop growing (it looks like he will reach the two meters of
height during this season!!!) and that is really making him struggle on
his movement. Dolgopolov is also a very talented player and more ready
for this level than the Australian. I expect Dolgopolov to take
advantage from the inconsistent play of Tomic and get a very important
win for him in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Oleksandr Dolgopolov ML @ -125 on 5Dimes
WTA Auckland - Kaia Kanepi vs Na Li
One
of the things I really like to do while handicapping is to fade the WTA
players who are in the middle of slumps, because a slumping girl
struggles even to win games due to her normal pathetic play and no
motivation at all to play. That's exactly what it is happening with the
overweight Kanepi, who will face a player who happens to be the worst
matchup for her in the whole circuit!
The last player a ball basher with terrible lateral movement really
wants to face is someone with an amazing defensive game and an ability
to counter punch Kanepi's powerful ground strokes with flat strokes
down the line from both wings. That's exactly what Na Li does and so,
it wasn't a big surprise to see the Chinese player destroying Kanepi
back in 2008 by 4-6 6-2 6-0, even when Kanepi was on her best form
ever. Now imagine how Kanepi will be able to be competitive in today's
match, when she can't put a single ball inside the court and her great
serve has become a double fault machine? She won't obviously be able to
be competitive and Na Li is going to destroy her.
Kaia Kanepi has lost 13 of her last 14 matches and I'm talking
about humiliating losses like 1-6 3-6 against a player outside the Top
120 and things like that. Also Kanepi has played an ITF tournament in
the middle of December, so it's not like she regrouped in the
off-season, as she played terrible three weeks ago in Dubai. Na Li
never says no to a beatdown and that's what I expect to happen in here.
Take Na Li minus the games.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Na Li (-5,5 Games) @ -115 on 5Dimes
WTA Auckland - Elena Baltacha vs Ioana-Raluca Olaru
On
a match between two players with a similar level of tennis, rhythm and
confidence will make the difference in here between a playing come from
the qualifying rounds and a player who will play her first match of the
season today.
Elena Baltacha had to play the qualifying rounds and she did it
extremely well with three wins over Top 150 players, something which
obviously left the British girl confident for the rest of the week. The
current British #1 is a known fast surfaces specialist and her baseline
hitting is powerful enough to make her controlling the points, while
avoiding committing loads of unforced errors. Also unlike most girls
outside the Top 50, Baltacha possesses a good first serve, which has
allowed her to win 72%, 83% and 70% of the points played on her 1st
serve during the qualifying rounds. She is fully confident and the fact
that she has won 18 of her last 22 matches is giving her the momentum
that she needs to play at her best level.
On the other side, Ioana-Raluca Olaru is a quite talented player,
but who keeps struggling with her inconsistent tennis and poor mental
game. She certainly has the game to be in the Top 50, but her shot
selection and lack of self-belief keeps putting her down in the
rankings. Now playing her first match of the season against a player
with a similar level but carrying a lot of momentum, I don't believe
Olaru will be able to match the intense and good tennis that Baltacha
is currently playing, hitting much more errors than the British player
and especially seeing her second serve being pounded by the aggressive
returns of Baltacha. This match should have had a 50/50 line if both
players were playing at the same level, but that's not the case. The
odds are not reflecting the better momentum of Baltacha and the fact
that she has much more match practice going for this match than her
Romanian opponent and so, I'll be taking Baltacha to win in here.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Elena Baltacha ML @ -120 on 5Dimes
Good Luck 