2010 Season Record: 1-0 (+1 units)

ATP Brisbane - Thomaz Bellucci vs Juan Ignacio Chela

I can’t say that I’m surprised to see the current lines for this match. But that doesn’t mean that I think that the current lines are fair. In fact, we are in presence of a match involving a typical overrated player by the sportsbooks against a typical underrated player by the sportsbooks and so, we will take advantage of that to take the underrated Chela over the overrated Bellucci on this match.

Thomaz Bellucci is surely a pretty talented player, but it’s just way too much to compare him to Gustavo Kuerten, as people love to do. Bellucci is much more inconsistent on his serve and ground strokes than Kuerten ever was and in fact, I won’t be surprised if Bellucci doesn’t get never higher than a Top 30 placing in the rankings during his career. There is the perception that Bellucci had a fantastic 2009 season and that he will only improve in 2010 and perhaps, even reach the Top 20. Bellucci had a great 2nd half of the season in 2009, but let’s not forget that in July he was barely inside the Top 150 and only an awesome run of results allowed him to finish the season in the Top 40. No doubt that Bellucci is extremely hard to stop when he carries a huge momentum, but he won’t be carrying any momentum to this match, as this will be his first match of the season and so, I don’t expect Bellucci to be able to use his great shot making skills without committing loads of unforced errors in this match. The Brazilian player is an hit-and-miss player and on the first match of the season, I expect Bellucci to “miss” more than “hit”, while putting in practice his highly risky playing style.

On the other side, Juan Ignacio Chela is one of the most experienced players in the Top 100 and I certainly expect him to be able to play close to his best today. The reason for that is that Chela is a very consistent baseliner, known for hitting the ball with a good margin of error, always being able to cut down his number of errors to a minimum. Besides that, Chela possesses also a decent forehand wing, which he can actually use it to attack his opponents, with tricky down the line shots, something which he will certainly do in order to explore the average lateral movement of the Brazilian player. The Argentinian player possesses the necessary great movement on court and defensive game to handle the firepower from Bellucci’s ground strokes and in that way, he will force Bellucci to always hit a couple of extra shots, which will only result in more errors from the Brazilian player.

On the early season, I always like to take a consistent player over an aggressive player, as I know that early on the season, it is tough for the shot makers to enter the season with all cylinders working properly. So, on this case, I believe that the much more consistent and accurate hitter Chela will cause a lot of problems the inconsistent and flashy Bellucci today. In my opinion, this should have been a 50/50 match and so, I’ll gladly take the 2 extra games that we are getting on Chela in here. Take Chela plus the games.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Juan Ignacio Chela (+2 Games) @ -120 on Betus

WTA Brisbane - Alicia Molik vs Ekaterina Makarova

Alicia Molik recently decided to comeback to the circuit and even though she has basically just played ITF’s in Australia, she did quite well on those lower tier tournaments by going 30-4 on her matches, with 3 titles, 3 finals and 1 semi final. It’s a fact that these ITF’s are certainly less competitive than this tournament of Brisbane, but Molik faced several Top 200 players and the fact that she hasn’t stopped competing since September clearly gives her an edge in terms of rhythm against a player who will play her first match of the season.

Ekaterina Makarova may be a Top 60 player, but she has finished last season with 9 defeats on her last 10 matches. She is a decent baseliner, with good ground strokes and with enough firepower to give her a good number of winners, however she really needs to be confident and with rhythm to be accurate, something which isn’t the case in here, as this will be her first match of the season. So, I expect Makarova to commit a lot of errors, especially while playing against a very experienced player, who will surely have the support of the crowd.

On this match, I expect Molik (who possesses one of the best serves in the circuit) to get a lot of cheap points from her serve and to easily finish a lot of points with her powerful ground strokes. On the other side, Makarova will struggle much more on holding serve and besides that, she will be much more prone to errors, as she will lack rhythm, while Molik will just play another match of her Australian Summer campaign. With both players having such a different spot for today, I expect Molik to use her offensive game to take down Makarova, who will surely need some rhythm and confidence to come back to the good results. Take Molik to win in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Alicia Molik ML @ -125 on Bookmaker

WTA Hopman Cup - Maria Jose Martinez vs Melanie Oudin

Pretty interesting contrast of styles in the first match of today’s tie between Spain and the United States. We may say that Spain is the favorite to win the three matches, but the truth is that the United States have conditions to cause an upset in both single matches, especially in the women’s match between Maria Jose Martinez and Melanie Oudin.

As we all remember, Melanie Oudin was the biggest surprise of last year’s US Open, where she took down Elena Dementieva, Nadia Petrova and Maria Sharapova, before losing in the quarter finals to the eventual finalist Caroline Wozniacki. Oudin really surprised everyone, but the truth is that it was fairly known that she is insanely talented and that she will be on the top of the women’s game one day. She is a great baseliner, with the ability of variating her game quite well, especially with her sliced backhand and with great down the line ground strokes from both wings, forcing her opponents to run a lot during the match, even though Oudin is not a powerful hitter. She has a great on-court attitude, with an excellent shot selection and she really knows what she has to do on court, something that causes a lot of problems to players who need some errors from their opponents to win matches.

It’s a fact that Maria Jose Martinez is not your typical Spanish player, as she is actually a quite offensive player, known for her great serve & volley tactics. The problem for Martinez is that she doesn’t possess a lot of firepower on her shots and her baseline game is so average at best that she really needs to come to the net as many times as possible. The problem is that she will get outplayed by Oudin in the baseline, so she will have problems in finding good opportunities to come to the net to finish the points conveniently. Besides that and even though Martinez has a good net coverage, Oudin can hit some amazing passing shots from both wings, especially down the line, which will make Martinez struggle a lot the whole match. The Spanish player is not a fan of indoor surfaces and in fact, her recent defeats against talented baseliners on this surface like Rezai (6-2 6-3) and Govortsova (6-1 6-4) show us exactly that. I expect Oudin to come fired up to represent her country in here and to take down an inferior player on this surface, on a matchup that clearly favors the American player. Take Oudin to win in here.

Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime) on Melanie Oudin ML @ -110 on 5Dimes

Good Luck