WNBA - San Antonio Silver Stars @ Washington Mystics

I like the Silver Stars to have a strong start in this game for several reasons. First of all the Stars have revenge in their mind because they lost at home against this Washington team 82-84 a couple of weeks ago and they were trailing almost all game so I expect a better effort from them since the start. San Antonio is coming from a tough home loss against Minnesota 76-83 and once again they started slow the game as they were trailing 33-42 at the break and allowed the Lynx to shot a whooping mark of 52.6 % from the field. This works for us because San Antonio is 13-2 against the 1rst half line off a home loss over the last 3 seasons, a sign that they bounced back after bad performances and usually they started strong those games.

Meanwhile Washington is coming for this game in a good mood as they beat the Sparks at home in their last game. Note that they outscored the Sparks 22-7 in the first quarter and this is tough to repeat and I wouldn't be surprised if they start this game a bit relaxed after such early dominance in the previous game. In fact this team is a great fade material after winning one game because they can't keep the level. I remember that Washington is 2-12 against the 1rst half line after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.

I know that San Antonio is 1-4 SU & ATS on the road this season but if we discount the two games that Becky Hammon didn't play (@ NY and @ CONN) the Silver Stars were 3-0 SU & ATS at the break on their road games against Phoenix, Seattle and Minnesota - all great teams! Take San Antonio Halftime in here!


Single Dime Play on San Antonio Silver Stars HALF TIME (+2)

WNBA -  Atlanta Dream @  Minnesota Lynx

These two teams faced each other a couple of weeks ago and the totals line were 174 points but yet the game ended with 176 points. For this contest we are dealing with 10 points less without any kind of relevant factor that justifies such huge lines drop.

After that game the Dream played four more games and those games ended with the Under cashing 3-1. However I'm not buying the idea that they are playing better defense or worst offense. This is all about matchups and opponents characteristics? In this league there are 4 teams that play in a fast pace: Phoenix, Minnesota, Atlanta and Chicago. Saying that is not a big surprise that these 4 teams are the WORST defensive teams of the league. Well during that 3-1 Under' span the Dream faced Washington, Indiana, Connecticut and New York. A quick look in the defensive stats (points per game allowed) and we can say that Atlanta faced the best defensive teams of the league and naturally some the games stayed bellow the total posted.

WNBA Defense Sorted by ppg allowed:

1 Indiana 68.2
2 New York 70.7
3 Seattle 70.8 
4 Connecticut 71.0
5 San Antonio 73.0
6 Los Angeles 73.3
7 Washington 77.2


However when Atlanta faced "those" fast paced teams the Over is a solid 3-0 and what about Minnesota? The answer is 4-0 Over! The matchup between these two teams favors a high scoring game as Atlanta has a huge edge in the frontcourt/rebounds battle and the Lynx have a better backcourt. Yesterday Lynx coach Jen Gillom said she hopes her team can counter the mismatch in the frontcourt by speeding up the game. My real line for this game is 168/171 points and I see some value on the Over in here.

Single Dime Play on Over 164 

WNBA -  Detroit Shock @ Seattle Storm

I understand that Seattle will be pretty hungry for this contest after losing at KeyArena in more then a year against Chicago despite being a 12-point chalk favorite and the second longest home winning streak of the WNBA history ended in a bad mood. However that doesn't guarantee that Seattle will roll over the next opponent because with 9.5 points in the line we are talking about a blowout win and Detroit is one of the worst teams in the league to face having the blowout word on their minds.

Seattle made an awful defensive job against Chicago by allowing them to shot 60.8 % from the field all game! In their two previous games they had some problems to score as despite beating Sacramento and San Antonio they scored only 66 points in both contests. Their superstar Lauren Jackson has been slowed down by some minor injuries and after a great start she is averaging 11.6 points per game L5 games.

Detroit meanwhile is coming from their first road win of the season in Connecticut so they are pretty confident for this game. With their big players Ford and Braxton back they are crushing the boards with some ease (+9.75 rebounds per game L4 games) and Seattle will have some problems tonight in this department. Detroit is a veteran team that knows what to do on the court and if they started slow the game they won't give up the game easily and I doubt that Seattle can rout them all game. If we were talking about a young team I would believe in that (Seattle beat Minnesota 90-62 after starting the game 31-19 in the first quarter) but facing a veteran team it's hard to dominate all game.

Detroit is a better and talented team than their 3-7 SU record and they are underrated for this contest. I don't expect them to have a letdown today because they are 6-0 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog and I wouldn't be surprised if they end the game with a real shot to win this contest. My real line for this game is Seattle by 5/7 points and that's why I'm taking Detroit in here.


Single Dime Play on Detroit Shock (+9.5)