NBA PREVIEWS
Detroit @ Atlanta
Detroit really seems to be picking up
without Iverson and the truth is that they have won their last four
games without him. And we are talking about four quality wins. They won
at Orlando and at Boston and then defeated Denver and Golden State at
home. The most impressive is that they held four of the best offenses
of the league to 85, 95, 95 and 91 points! The Pistons really seem to
be coming back to what they were in the past few seasons, but now they
will be facing the Hawks on the road, a team they tradicionally
struggle against. The Pistons are 3-9 ATS against the Hawks in their
last 12 meetings and Atlanta has already won two games against them
this season, one at home and one on the road. The Hawks are coming from
two road losses, but they are a different team at home, where they have
a great 20-7 record. This promises to be a really close match between
two teams who will be fighting for home court advantage in the first
round of the playoffs until the last week of the regular season.
Miami @ Cleveland
Dwayne Wade is really carrying
the Heat right now with some astonishing performance and the truth is
that Miami is currently ahead of teams like Detroit and Philadelphia in
the standings right now. This will be the second time in less than a
week that these two teams will face each other, as Cleveland won at
Miami by 107-100 last Monday. The Cavs are coming from a tough defeat
as Boston last night, but we all know how they play at home and the
proof of that is their 25-6 ATS record in their last 31 home games.
Still one of the times they didn't cover the spread during this span
was against Miami earlier this season. It's true that the Cavs are
coming mad to this game, while the Heat are coming from a great win at
Toronto, but do we really want to lay almost 10 points on a team who
will face the red hot Dwayne Wade tonight?
Charlotte @ New York
Really contrast of styles in
this game between the run and gun Knicks and the defensive Bobcats.
Charlotte has won their last five games and once again last night, they
showed their good form by taking out the Hawks by 98-91. The main
problem for them is to play on the road, where they have a poor 9-20
record. The Knicks were struggling until they got a great home win
against the Hawks. But Nate and Jeffries are questionable for this
match and especially Nate is one of the most important pieces of the
Knicks' puzzle. New York is 2-0 against the Bobcats this season, but
Charlotte really seems to be the better team of the two right now. With
such a contrast of styles, it's hard to predict something in this
matchup.
Philadelphia @ Memphis
This will be a match
between two teams who aren't exactly in top form right now. The Sixers
are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 matches and they have lost their last two
games at home against the Hornets and Orlando. However their last game
was last Monday, so they had plenty of time to rest for this game. On
the other side, Memphis is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games, but
they are actually coming from a rare road win against the Clippers. The
Grizzlies don't have a lot to fight for, but they have actually been
competitive in the last games, including a nice fight in LA against the
Lakers. Both teams are rested and the Sixers really look to have a nice
spot to get an important win in here, but can we trust them in a road
underdog spot? Note that the under is 9-1-1 in the last 12 matches
between these two teams.
Oklahoma City @ New Orleans
The Hornets are
really getting into form and they have won their last 6 games. But one
thing is winning and other thing is covering the spread and while the
Hornets have won their last 6 games, they went 2-4 ATS in those games.
Still those games were tough ones, including home games against Dallas
and Detroit and road games against Philadelphia and New Jersey. The
Hornets aren't still totally clean from injuries, as Peja and Peterson
are currently injured. On the other side, the Thunder have surprisingly
won their last three matches, even without Durant in these three
matches and also Green in the last two. But this match will be much
tougher, as they will play against a top team on the road, where the
missing of these two players will be more explored. The Hornets are
returning to be double digits favorites due to their good run and it's
not clear in my opinion how they will behave today in such spot against
a confident team who doesn't show to be missing their best two players.
Golden State @Milwaukee
Two struggling teams are
going head to head in here. Milwaukee has lost 7 of their last 9 games
and the fact that they are without Bogut and Redd is really getting
into the performance of the team. They lost their last two matches by
18 and 15 points at Cleveland and Chicago, so they will have a good
chance to bounce back tonight at home against the lowly Warriors. But
be careful with the lowly Warriors! It's true that they are 6-26 on the
road this season and they are currently 7-21-2 ATS on their last 30
road games, however they use to get their wins when nobody expects them
to happen and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Warriors bouncing back
tonight after two very tough losses at Chicago and Detroit. There are a
lot of injuries on the Warriors, but they don't lack scorers on their
roster and in a run and gun game against a team who is missing two of
their best scorers, everything can really happen in here.
Washington @ Dallas
If the Wizards are horrible
by nature this season, they only got much worse now that they have been
playing without Butler. However the sportsbooks also now that and I
expect a really big line for the Mavs to cover and they have Howard
questionable for this matchup and we can't say that they a great team
in covering large spreads. Washington lost at San Antonio last night by
78-100 and they can't really get nothing going on the offense. But the
real question in here is to know if we can trust Dallas a big favorite.
They are 1-4 ATS this season as a home favorite by more than 12 points
and I wouldn't be surprised if the Wizards are capable of being kinda
competitive tonight. Note that Butler is questionable for tonight, so
he hasn't been ruled out of tonight's game.
Minnesota @ Portland
The Wolves can't really
catch a break right now and after getting trashed by the Lakers last
night, they will play tonight at Portland, in another match which
promises to be a really tough game for them. Minnesota can't really be
competitive without Al Jefferson and they are 2-12 ATS on their last 14
games! On the other side, Portland is coming from a tough defeat at
Denver in a TNT game last Thursday and they will now try to bounce back
at home against the lowly Wolves. The problem in backing the Blazers is
really the large spread. Portland will host the Lakers next Monday and
then Dallas next Wednesday, so a lookahead spot for the Blazers isn't
out of question, especially when the standings in the Western
conference show how almost all top teams are so close to each other.
Indiana @ LA Clippers
Both teams are coming to
this matchup rested, as they haven't played since last Wednesday. The
Pacers were extremely competitive in Portland and considering they are
playing without Granger and Dunleavy, this is really great news for
them. They still have a tiny shot at reaching the Playoffs, but they
know that unless they make an amazing road trip, they will out of the
contention soon. The problem is really their poor road record and the
fact that they are without their best scorer who is averaging 25 points
per game this season. On the other side, the Clippers are fighting for
nothing right now, but they have talent enough on their roster to be
competitive in games like this one. Eric Gordon will return tonight to
the lineup and we know that the Pacers aren't exactly a very consistent
team and the fact this is their last game of the road trip really makes
me think that this may be a flat spot for them. However, can we really
trust the worst home team of the league to beat them? I am not so sure.
FREE PICK
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Hornets
This is my first bet of the
season where I don't go in the standard proposition of Side/Total Full Game bet.
Nevertheless I really like the Hornets to roll tonight and spank the Thunder
tonight however there is one factor that possibly could turn an easy winner into
a backdoor cover for the Thunder: their poor bench. So I have to make a decision
and honestly if the Hornets cover the -13 points spread, I have no doubt they
will cover the HT spread as well. I predict that midway the fourth quarter they
will lead by at least 15 points and then Chris Paul, David West and Tyson
Chandler will sit out to rest and then we will have the third worst bench of the
league in action (24.8 ppg) and I cannot depend of those guys to make a profit
in here. In fact, the last time the Hornets had a big spread against Milwaukee
(-9.5), they led by 15 points at HT (50-35) and late in the game their bench
almost blew everything and the Hornets felt lucky to win that game in a late
shot.
Well, the Hornets are playing their best basketball of the season.
They won the last 5 games and Tyson Chandler is having a huge impact right now
by dominating the boards and providing at least 3 beautiful alley hoops per game
with CP3. I expect them to perform fine as long as they stayed in the
court.
Meanwhile the Thunder won somehow their last 3 games against
Memphis, Dallas and the Wizards. The most surprisingly factor is that Kevin
Durant and Jeff Green were out in those games and still the Thunder were
competitive and won these games. However to ask them to do the same thing on the
road against one of the hottest teams in the league is too much. Note that
although Jeff Green is questionable for this game and also their guard Thabo
Sefolosha is questionable after playing well their last 2 games. The Thunder is
playing hard without Durant and Green and the key for such competitiveness is
their ability to grab offensive rebounds. In fact, they have more offensive
boards then their opponents in the last 4 games and score a lot of second chance
points was the key for them. For tonight this won't be easy for them as the
Hornets since Chandler returned have always outrebounded their opponents and
they are consequently the fifth best team in terms of offensive rebounds
allowed/game.
This is the close out series game and the Hornets won all
the 3 previous games. In the last one the Thunder were extremely competitive and
the Hornets only won by 3 points. However a close look we can see that Kevin
Durant scored 47 points (16-27 from the field) and the Thunder had 13 off.
rebounds for just 6 of the Hornets and why? Because Tyson Chandler didn't play
and the Hornets struggled down the post. Both things won't happen tonight and I
expect the Hornets to grab a double digits lead at halftime.
Note: This is a halftime
bet!
Regular Play on New Orleans Hornets (-7) HALFTIME
Yesterday we had a 2-2 night on the NBA, with a marginal loss, but I expect to come back to the winning days today.
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