BOSTON @ UTAH
I must confess that the trends of 8-1 Under on the road vs West teams
and 19-8 Under on the road from the Boston Celtics scares anyone who
like the over in here. That's my case, but there are so many factors
which favors a high scoring game for tonight that those trends are only
"trends".
Well, the Jazz are really playing well lately. They are 5-1 L6
games including great wins at home against Dallas and Lakers, the key
for this good run is naturally Deron Williams. He is finally healthy
and it's him that dictates the pace for the Jazz so it's not a big
surprise to associate this good run to a 4-2 Over record in those
games. At the same time their defense continues to not impress at all!
They allowed 99, 109, 116 and 117 points in the last 4 games and no one
talks about it because they are winning and surely that is the most
important thing.
I expect the Jazz to be aggressive and
have a considerable number of free throws tonight. This team is ranked
third in Free Throws attempts with 28.3 per game but in the last 10
games they lead the league without any doubt with 32 attempts per game!
The Jazz are 11-3 Over as an underdog this season and their game plan
is simple: be the aggressors tonight. The problem is that they will
play against the Celtics.
The Celtics have the best defense of the league; however they
are deadly dangerous against soft defenses. Already in this season we
saw the Celtics scored 110 points @ NY Knicks, 100 points @
Philadelphia or 124 and 119 points vs Dallas & Sacramento, my point
is that if they are left open on the field they will score big. I have
to remember that the Over is 9-2 when the Jazz faced good shooting
teams - making >=46% of their shots: Boston is the second best team
of the league shooting 48.3 % from the field and 49.7 % L10 games! They
are well rested and prepared to keep the fast tempo that the Jazz will
put on the floor. I think the winner of this game will easily reach the
100's mark and the loser will end in the high 90's. Take the Over in
here.
SINGLE DIME PLAY OVER 200 POINTS
I have one premium play on the other game between the Pistons and the Spurs, a total play that I loved! In my research I've found one key edge: 8-1-1 Over/Under L10 games involving the Pistons this season
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Good Luck!