Hello Pregame Community,
Usually I
offer one of my cards when the league is about to stop or in a special day. Tomorrow
is the last day before the All Star Break so I decided this card will be free
of charge, good luck!
Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic
This is an
important game for the Nuggets, as the Nuggets were spanked at home
against the Magic and this is a huge revenge game for them. They
bounced back nicely yesterday in Miami after a brutal loss suffered in
New Jersey. Actually the 44 points loss against the Nets was a classic
letdown spot, as they had previously beaten the Thunder and the
Wizards, so facing a superior class team, the letdown spot was evident.
The most important thing is that they made a bounce back game against
Miami even though they allowed the Heat to made a comeback in the third
quarter.
Meanwhile the Magic are 2-2 L4 games and we really don't know what
this team is worth without Jameer Nelson. I mean, after the absence of
Nelson they played 3 games: they defeated easily the Clippers by 125-96
in a no business game, as the Clippers love to be spanked; then they
lost in Indiana by 102-107 despite being 7 points favorites and in the
last game, they spanked at home the Nets, who had spanked the Nuggets
by 101-85. But I have to say that the Nets were without Vince Carter in
that game and if you know decently well the Nets, you know that he is
the heart and the soul of that team.
For me it's crucial to compare what will be this game when compared
of the last one between these teams played late in January. First of
all, the Magic were carrying a huge momentum. That game was the last
game of a West Coast road trip and the Magic had already beaten the
Spurs and the Lakers. For today this momentum is "gone"! Also Carmelo
Anthony didn't play that game. Carmelo since the return is averaging a
nice mark of 23.8 ppg. Of course Nelson is out for this game and in
that game he was a huge factor by scoring 23 points (9-15 from the
field) and 5 assists and in my opinion, the most relevant factor is
that Nene Hilario played an awful game against Howard. Nene played only
17 minutes before he got ejected and connected only 2-10 FG (we are
talking about the best % FG player of this league!). I won't expect
such a dismal performance from Nene today. I'm not saying that Howard
will have a bad game at all, but at least I believe that Nene will be a
hell of an opponent.
The Magic already lost at home against some West power teams like
Portland, Houston or Dallas and I think the Nuggets have a shot to win
this game. Billups usually make great games against them and we will
see a fired up team tonight. The great part of this conversation is the
fact that Denver is a heavy dog in this contest and definitely they
shouldn't deserve so many points and that's why I'm taking them in here.
Regular Play on Denver Nuggets (+7,5)
Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Bobcats
I
really like the way Larry Brown is implementing a new style on his
team. The Bobcats might not be the most talented team of this league,
but one thing we can be sure of them is that they will fight for each
ball, as that's what Larry Brown's teams do. After a bad stretch of
results, where they lost 6 consecutive games, they won their last game
by 94-73 against a hapless Clippers team. The low score outcome is
representative of the intentions of Larry Brown: the Bobcats want to
turn each ballgame into a dogfight and keep the numbers down, after all
without Gerald Wallace and Raja Bell, how can this team compete in wild
open games against teams with more talent than them?
In their last game, the Bobcats despite shooting 52% from the field
and making 27 assists, they scored just 94 points. In normal
conditions, these numbers would be more than worth a team reaching the
century mark in points. Or what about their last road game in Miami?
The Heat ended the game by shooting 56% from the field and made 23
assists for just 8 turnovers, but still they made only 96 points!
Right now the Bobcats' bench is composed by only defensive minded
players: center Cartier Martin, Nazr Mohammed and Alexis Ajinca. The
only exception is Vladimir Radmanovic. Besides that, center DeSagana
Diop is starting at center which shows the importance for Larry Brown
of their defense.
Today they will face the lowly Wizards, who once again got spanked
in their last game. They lost by 90-111 at Atlanta and one curious stat
is that they scored 22 points in fast breaks; we are talking about
almost 25% of the total outcome. This won't happen today as the Bobcats
are the fourth best team in stopping the FB's points (only Detroit,
Boston and Portland have better numbers). If that wasn't bad enough,
the team's flight from Atlanta to Charlotte for tonight's game was
delayed because the plane broke down.
Lately the Wizards allowed a huge number of points in some games:
124 vs Denver; 117 vs Indiana or 111 @ Atlanta, but once again the
Bobcats don't want that kind of game, I have to say that the Under is
4-1-1 in Bobcats last 6 games against a team with a winning % below
.400. After being spanked last night, I expect a bettor effort
defensively from the Wizards, as they are 21-7 Under after a blowout
loss by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Charlotte is 2-0 in
this series this season and the common factor is that both games were
low scoring games: 152 and 181 points. I think that this contest won't
be different and that's why I'm taking the Under in here.
Regular Play on Under 188
San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors
The
Spurs are in a roll right now and now that Andrew Bynum is injured
maybe this team maybe can compete against LA. They won 10 of their last
12 games and there is a pattern lately with this team. This pattern is
related with the totals. Look, they had a streak of 5 consecutives
overs, then they had a streak of 5 consecutive unders and lately they
are in a streak of 7 consecutive overs, easy right? During this "over
machine" the Spurs only once failed to reach the century mark points
and it was against Denver ? the game that their big stars didn't
played, so if we remove that game the Spurs averaged 108.1 ppg during
this span!
This streak has a good reason to exist: not only the big three
Duncan, Parker and Ginobili is playing great, but also the role players
Roger Mason and especially Matt Bonner streaking hot lately. Now the
Spurs don't have only three reliable scorers, but 5 players who are
reaching double digits numbers! Bonner scored 22 points in Boston (8-10
FG) and yesterday he made 23 points for a 10-17 FG performance. So, I
don't think this good offensive run will stop tonight in Toronto
because the Raptors can't challenge anyone defensively.
Toronto finally snapped their 6 games losing streak by winning in
Minnesota against a team who were without their best player for the
first time this season. The Raptors shot 53.1 % from the field and made
27 assists for just 12 TO. This was a big game for them, as they had
only shot 29.5 % against the Memphis in the previous contest when they
scored just 70 points.
Now they return home to face a top team and this combination
usually results in high scoring games, not only because the Over is 5-2
in Raptors last 7 games back to back games and lately they allowed 115
points to the Lakers, 113 points to Orlando or 117 points against
Phoenix. With the Spurs so hot offensively lately, I doubt that the
Raptors can stop the Spurs tonight. I think the game will end with more
than 190 points scored and with us having the opportunity to bet in a
line below that mark is a great deal for us. Take the Over in here.
Regular Play on Over 189
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz
Maybe
this game is a trap game and the Lakers will have a huge letdown in
this contest, but the last time they have such possible scenario they
won in Cleveland while being 4.5 points underdogs and all the headlines
appointed for an easy win to the Cavs and gladly I took the Lakers in
that game.
For this game I believe the spot is the same and my explanation
will be practically the same of that game. When powerful teams have the
"momentum" they are very tough to beat, it doesn't matter if they are
healthy or not or the opponent is claiming revenge. If that game turns
into a ballgame, the team with momentum will surely win the game
because their confidence is sky high. That's why the Lakers beat the
Celtics and the Cavs; That why the Magic beat the Spurs, Lakers and
Denver in a road trip this season and that's why in the last season the
Celtics swept the Texas triangle when everybody expected a Celtics'
letdown in each single game! The Lakers had a busy week last week in a
powerful road trip and beat the Thunder yesterday by 105-98 in a game
that clearly they didn't put their A effort.
The Jazz meanwhile remains a great team when playing at home but
when can't compare this team to what they did last season. The reason
is simply: they are banged up and without Boozer and Kirilenko they
don't have the weapons to compete against Gasol and a rejuvenated Lamar
Odom. To make things even worst Millsap is not at his best: "My knee
won't allow me to do certain things on the court," Millsap said. "I
wouldn't say it's a wall because my conditioning is good and my mental
focus is there."
I understand that they are 20-6 SU at home this season, but if you
look to their schedule you will see that their last 3 home games
against power clubs ended all with losses for the Jazz. They lost by
100-106 against the Spurs; they lost by 97-102 against the Cavs and
they lost by 94-103 against the Magic. The Lakers are definitely in
that category. I think that the Jazz are overpriced in here taking in
account that they aren't powerful home team that they used to be in the
last season. Take the Lakers in here.
Regular Play on Los Angeles Lakers pk