NBA - Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks
I
understand that Dallas was spanked in Dallas last Thursday in front of
national audience and they look to make a bounce back tonight. However,
7 points is just too much for this game as their opponent is motivated
and playing their best basketball of the season.
For starters, Dallas is not that kind of team who reacts powerfully
after a loss like the Cavs who are 9-0 ATS after a loss or Orlando (7-4
ATS), No! They are 2-5 ATS at home after a loss, which tells us that
they aren't a tough team to beat when they are in a bad mood. Also it's
important to say that they aren't a typical powerful home team as well
as in this season they are only 7-15 ATS at home and 7-12 ATS being
home favorites. My point is that I can't see them as powerful home team
who will spank anyone in this game just because they lost by 28 points
in the last game and look for redemption tonight.
They will play against Chicago, who is playing a great basketball
lately. We are used to see this team struggled badly on the road, but
this isn't the case of this last road trip, as they are 4-2 SU and
5-0-1 ATS. Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng are all playing great
with a lot of confidence and this team was competitive in some tough
places like Phoenix, Houston or New Orleans. They didn't show any kind
of fear in the last game against the Hornets without Chris Paul, as
they gained an early lead and never looked back. During this road trip
they shot 50% of the field and averaged 25.8 apg for just 11.0 TO/game.
Usually I don't like to bet on teams that are playing the final
road trip game as usually, we are dealing with tired team who just
wanted to go home. This is not the case of the Bulls as they had 2 days
off to rest and prepare this game. In my opinion, the X factor will be
the matchup in the Point Guard position: Derrick Rose vs Jason Kidd.
Jason Kidd remains a great player, but while facing younger
explosive opponents, he struggles to stop those guys because Jason
Terry is also a terrible defender player. Did you notice that Deron
Williams ended last game shooting 11-20 FG for 34 points and 12
assists?! Or Brandon Roy ended with 10-20 FG for 26 points, or Dwayne
Wade ended with 13-23 FG for 30 points. My last example will be the
supreme mismatch: Devin Harris torched Jason Kidd and the Mavs by
scoring 41 points for a stellar performance of 14-25 from the field.
Well, Derrick Rose is playing terrifying basketball on this road trip
scoring 16.8 ppg for 60% from the field and dishing 6.8 assists per
game.
I think that this game will be a ballgame decided only down the
stretch and I see the Bulls winning outright in here. Dallas in the
last home against Portland almost blew a lead of 9 points in 30 seconds
and the Bulls are an extremely confident team right now. They won on
the road in Phoenix outscoring them by 34-28 in the final quarter and
even in the last defeat in Houston they almost rallied back the game
and outscore the Rockets 34-28 in the last quarter. I'm taking the
Bulls in here.
Pick: 1/3 unit on Chicago Bulls ML @ +260 on TheGreek
Pick: 2/3 units on Chicago Bulls (+7)
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Good Luck 