This is my play for the Australian Open final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.
The matches between these two players are always instant classics and this will be another one.
Australian Open - Roger Federer (SWI) vs Rafael Nadal (ESP)
Luckily
for everybody who is a tennis fan, the dream final will happen in this
tournament and once again, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal will face
each other in order to see who wins the 2009 edition of the Australian
Open. If Federer wins, it will be his 4th win, while if Nadal wins, it
will be his first win Down Under. This is always an exciting matchup,
considering Federer is one of the best offensive players ever, while
Nadal is one of the best defensive players ever, so everytime these two
players face each other, we watch some awesome tennis and today's match
should be no exception. I have to confess I had a big lean on Nadal to
win this match before studying the game, but now after studying hard
everything around this match, I think it will be Federer to win the
match and equal Pete Sampras with 14 Grand Slam wins.
I'll explain why. First of all, this match will be played on
hardcourt, a surface where Nadal has never won a Grand Slam. In fact,
just 7 of the 31 tournaments won in Nadal's career until now were on
hardcourt (6 outdoor + 1 indoor), which is a low number, considering
Nadal has played 49% of his matches on this surface! The reason is
simple: Nadal gets more exposed on hardcourt than in any other surface.
In fact, the Spanish player has lost on hardcourt since the 2008 season
to Mikhail Youzhny, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andreas Seppi, Andy Roddick,
Novak Djokovic (x2), Nikolay Davydenko (x2), Andy Murray (x2), Gilles
Simon and Gael Monfils. This means 12 of the last 13 defeats of Nadal
have happened on hardcourt, which shows how the Spanish player watches
his game getting more exposed on this surface. In fact, these 9 players
who have defeated him since the 2008 season have two things in common:
power and consistence. That's the key to beat Nadal on hardcourt: hit
the ball with aggression, but with a controlled aggression, always
looking to keep the consistence rate at high levels, so Nadal can't win
cheap points with stupid unforced errors. And when that doesn't happen,
Nadal watches his lack of offensive weapons exposed and can't do
nothing but expect that his opponent starts getting more inconsistent
as the time of the match goes by. And looking at how Federer is playing
right now, I don't think this is going to happen today.
Roger Federer has indeed lost his last 4 matches against Rafael
Nadal and especially two Grand Slam finals in a row. But then, we all
know of how much Federer struggled last season with mononucleosis and
how it prevent him for having a good preseason, which is always
necessary for a great season. In fact, Federer seems to be playing once
again at pre-2008 level, which means unbeatable outside clay. He had a
major struggle against Tomas Berdych in the fourth round, but we are
talking about a super talented player who if he had brains could be in
the mix between Federer and Nadal right now with his superb game for
hardcourt. After his tight affair with Berdych, Federer demolished Del
Potro (6:3 6:0 6:0) and Roddick (6:2 7:5 7:5) with two amazing
performances, which surely game him the confidence he really needs to
face Nadal at his best level. One of the things that makes me like
Federer in here is that he was tested. He faced Andreas Seppi, Evgeny
Korolev, Marat Safin, Tomas Berdych, Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy
Roddick in the road to the final. That's probably the hardest road I've
seen someone have to get to a Grand Slam in a while and Federer played
some great tennis to get into the final. This was what Federer probably
lacked in Wimbledon last season, as he didn't drop a single set during
his way onto the final and his draw was fairly easy. Marc Gicquel in
the third round and Marat Safin on a Grand Slam semi final won't give
you the necessary practice to face Nadal in a Grand Slam final.
However, facing a red hot Andy Roddick in the semi finals, who was
coming from a spanking over Novak Djokovic surely helped Federer to get
into the zone and it will surely help him to play at his best tomorrow.
Rafael Nadal wasn't tested at all until his quarter final match
against Gilles Simon and even at this match, he wasn't tested the whole
time. In fact, facing a pusher like Gilles Simon won't surely help
Nadal into facing Federer today, as the style of play is basically the
opposite. Then, Nadal faced his friend Verdasco in the semi finals and
maybe he was tested too much on that match. Verdasco used his serve and
forehand to punish Nadal the whole match and that's basically what
Federer will do tomorrow against him, but with a much better backhand,
a killer slice, with better match tactics and a lot more consistence
and experience to play the most important points of the match. In fact,
matchup wise, Federer gets a big edge over Nadal a fast paced hardcourt
surface like this one. Actually, it will be the first time Federer will
face Nadal on a fast outdoor surface, as Miami and Dubai are slow
hardcourt surfaces and where Nadal was able to reach most balls from
Federer and be extremely competitive, while winning 2 of the 3 matches
played on outdoor hard. On a fast hardcourt surface, Federer will be
able to use his forehand more to get more winners and he will also be
able to get into the net to finish the points quickly. That's what
Federer sometimes lacks against Nadal. The opportunity of coming to the
net in a nice position, without fearing the deathly passing shots from
the Spanish warrior. Another thing which will be in Federer's advantage
is how greatly Federer is returning serve in the second week of the
tournament. Federer is coming from facing two big servers and still he
broke Del Potro 7 times and Roddick 4 times. Now he will face a tricky
left handed serve, but Federer has been showing in the recent past that
he is getting more comfortable with left handed's serves and his win
over Verdasco in Kooyong, in the week before this tournament has surely
helped him in improving even more in how to return the tricky left
handed serve with tons of slice, like Nadal and Verdasco love to do.
Obviously, there is the mental edge that Nadal has over Federer,
but I don't think it will be that evident today, as they have never
faced each other on hardcourt in a Grand Slam, so I don't think Federer
will struggle as much as he would if this match was at Roland Garros or
at Wimbledon. The Australian Open is still Federer's territory, he has
never lost a final in here and while Nadal will be playing his first
final in this tournament and I wouldn't be surprised if he does a
little bit more errors than usual for his standards. Federer is coming
to this match with a lot of revenge, as this will be his first match
against Nadal after his two losses against him in the finals of Roland
Garros and Wimbledon and this is the perfect spot for Federer get
revenge in here.
In terms of value, I don't think Federer to win has a lot of value
honestly. However, I've found a great bet, which has a lot of value.
Looking at the history of the matches between these two players, I
would say that if this match goes to a 5th set, Nadal will most
probably steal a win from Federer once again. So, I'm taking Federer to
cover a (-1,5 Sets) handicap, which basically means Federer to win 3-0
or Federer to win 3-1. Nadal may grab a set (most likely the 2nd or 3rd
set), but Federer should be too good for Nadal, who is yet to reach his
clay and grass level on hardcourt and who is yet to show that he is a
worthy Grand Slam winner on hardcourt. Take Federer to win his 14th
Grand Slam today by allowing Nadal to win just 1 set or not a single
one.
Pick: 1 unit (Single Dime Play) on Roger Federer (-1,5 Sets) @2.14 on 10Bet