NBA Western Conference Preview

 

 

Northwest Division

Utah - 51.5
Portland - 44.5
Denver - 41.5
Minnesota - 30.5
Oklahoma - 25.5

Utah is the favorite on this division and just a catastrofic scenario will prevent them from getting the 1st place on the division. The Jazz are a young team, with two All-Star players on their roster: Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer. They seem to be almost unbeatable at home and the 50 wins mark doesn't seem to be hard to achieve, especially with Denver being weaker this season.

Portland will play the role that Denver had last season: being the biggest division rivals of the Jazz on the division. The team has two new players, who will have an immediate impact on the league: Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez. Nate McMilan has been doing a great job with this team and they finished last season with a 41-41 record. They have now a line of 44.5 wins for this season and it doesn't seem to be impossible for them to have 5 more wins this season.

Denver's scenario is much different. They had a 50-32 record this season and they are now listed to have just 40 wins this season. This team was always known for having no defense and there was even a recurring joke that they should be called Enver Nuggets because they have no "D". In order to save this problem, they allowed their best defender Marcus Camby to go, in exchange for... nothing! Iverson and Carmelo can solve any game down the stretch, but asking them to do this in 82 games is simply too much.

The young Thunder are listed to have 25 wins, 5 more they had last season. And with the same coach and with Durant now with one year of NBA experience, that doesn't seem impossible to be done.

I really like Minnesota's team this season. I don't place them to be a possible outsider for the Playoffs, as that's unrealistic, but it's a team which can win about 35 games this season. They are now listed with 30.5 wins and the team has what it's needed to have an impact on the league: a powerful frontcourt. Al Jefferson gave indications last season that he can become a dominant force on the league, with a 20-10 season. The frontcourt was improved, with the addition of Kevin Love, who is one of the most NBA ready rookies this season. If that wasn't enough, the Wolves have also a player who is an offensive threat in the exterior game: Mike Miller, who will make their opponents think twice before double teaming Al Jefferson. Besides that, Randy Foye and Sebastian Telfair are both fit right now, something which didn't happen last season. Minny had a 7-34 record on the road last season and 3-13 in division games, but that's something they should easily improve this season. I expect the Wolves to be more competitive this season.

• Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves Over 30.5 Wins

Pacific Division

Lakers - 54.5
Phoenix - 46.5
Warriors - 37.5
Clippers - 33.5
Sacramento - 28.5

The Lakers are the clear favorites on this division and they should win it. If that doesn't happen, it's because that had a disastrous regular season. 55 wins seem to be achievable, but I don't want to take risks, as we are yet to find out if Odom will get used to be a 6th man or not and how will adapt Gasol and Bynum to play together, knowing that both players like to be on the same position on the field. Kobe refused to get surgery in the offseason, in order to not missing any time. But what if something happens to him? It's too many factors to take the over in here.

The Suns can be the sleepers in the West. They are a good team, but they aren't considered to be favorites, like they were a couple of seasons ago. However, they have the necessary tools to have great season. But the fact that they have a new coach makes their season be hard to predict, as it will depend from how they will adapt to the new system and that's even more important in the case of the Suns, as their style of play will really change this season.

The Clippers have changed a lot in the offseason and in this case we are talking about a very young team. Baron Davis and Marcus Camby are great player and nobody can question that, but nobody joins a team and becomes immediately adapted to a new city, a new team and a new system and that's the challenge of the team for this season. If things work well for them, they should do better than the 34,5 wins. However, if something goes wrong, then they should go under the total listed.

The case of the Kings is different, as they are listed to win just 28.5 games and almost nothing is expected from them and maybe they can be a surprise because of that. They surprised a lot of people last season by having a 38-44 record and playing most part of the season without Bibby, Artest and even Martin. The team doesn't have the quality of their rivals, but they can still be a strong team.

And then, we have the Warriors and my analysis is similar to the one I've wrote about the Pacers. Baron Davis is now in LA and on a wild run and gun system, he was able to average almost 8 assists per game. Without him, who will have that role on the team? Monta Ellis? He is a pure scorer! He will never be a playmaker and besides that, he will be out of the first part of the season and knowing that he needs his speed to play his best, when will he really return at 100%? The team doesn't have the same weapons they had last season and it will be hard for them to maintain the level they had on the past two seasons.

• Predicition: Golden State Warriors Under 37.5 Wins

Southwest Division

Houston - 53.5
New Orleans - 51.5
San Antonio - 48.5
Dallas - 46.5
Memphis - 22.5

This division seems to have the perfect lines for every team. Memphis will once again struggle with four top teams on their division and having 22 wins was what they had last season and I'm not seeing this team improving this season.

The Hornets were one of the surprises last season and they have everything to play well, as basically nothing has changed. Paul, West and Chandler are still very young and they will continue to make a lot of damages on the next few seasons.

Dallas is coming from a poor season and they are listed to have 47 wins. The team maintained the same players from last season and now they have a coach, who managed to have great first seasons on his last two teams. I wouldn't be surprised if that happens with Dallas this season too.

Houston seem to be a little bit overrated, but if the team managed to build that amazing winning streak last season without Yao Ming, what can they do with an healthy Yao and with Artest on the roster? I'm not taking the risk of betting on the under, even though the chances of something going wrong with them is big.

The Spurs will be without Ginobili in the early season and they may struggle, but their schedule in the beginning of the regular season is fairly easy. Their first road trip to the East is just in February and their beginning of season against Phoenix, @Portland, Dallas, @Minnesota, Miami and Knicks doesn't scare anyone. Besides that, Popovich is known for making miracles and even though the team may not play very well, at the end they will find a way to win the games.

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