If in the Eastern conference we know that Detroit will
be in the conference final and that we will probably know what to expect from
the series between Boston and Cleveland after tonight's Game 4, the Western
conference semi finals are on-fire with both series being tied at 2-2 right
now, with the home team winning all eight games and covering the spread at the
same time. And with so very little separating the quality of Lakers/Utah and
Hornets/Spurs, we can't predict even just one of the finalists of this conference
this season. But let's start with the series between the Spurs and the Hornets
today and tomorrow I will talk about the series between the Lakers and Utah.
Everybody is considering the Hornets as the favorites
to win the series, as they just need to win all their four home games in this
series. And the crutial word in here is "just". Do you think
defeating at home the Spurs by four times in a row in a playoffs series is
easy? In the past three seasons, the Spurs have lost their first two road games
in a series for four times. Do you what happened in their third road game of
those series? They won it in all four series.
2004/2005 Season:
Western Conference Semi Finals:
# Game 3 @ Seattle: Seattle 92, San Antonio 91
# Game 4 @ Seattle: Seattle 101, San Antonio 89
# Game 6 @ Seattle: San Antonio 98, Seattle 96
NBA Final:
# Game 3 @ Detroit: Detroit 96, San Antonio 79
# Game 4 @ Detroit: Detroit 102, San Antonio 71
# Game 5 @ Detroit: San Antonio 96, Detroit 95 (OT)
2005/2006 Season:
Western Conference First Round:
# Game 3 @ Sacramento: Sacramento 94, San Antonio 93
# Game 4 @ Sacramento: Sacramento 102, San Antonio 84
# Game 6 @ Sacramento: Sacramento 83, San Antonio 105
Western Conference Semi Finals:
# Game 3 @ Dallas: Dallas 104, San Antonio 103
# Game 4 @ Dallas: Dallas 123, San Antonio 118
# Game 6 @ Dallas: Dallas 86, San Antonio 91
These aren't certainly good news for the Hornets, as
they don't if they lose the next game at home, the series will be over in the
Game 6 at San Antonio. It's true that the Hornets have easily defeated the
Spurs in the first two home games, but three major things have changed since
that: First of all, Bowen is now defending Peja and not Paul. Since that change
was made in the Game 3, Peja has just scored a combined of 14 points in two
games, after scoring 22 points in the Game 1 and 25 points in the Game 2. Also
Duncan doesn't have fever and flu-like symptoms anymore. That was shown where
he shot 10-13 FG, while scoring 22 points and grabing 15 boards. The third
factor has to go with the change in the starting lineup, with Ginobili now not
coming from the bench anymore, which is helping the defense of the Spurs in
stopping the backcourt players of the Hornets.
If there is a team in the league who has a coach that
can solve any problem between games, that coach is Popovich. After the changes
he has made in the team, the Spurs have been dismantling the Hornets pretty
easily, while alternating two tactics: using Parker and Ginobili to make
penetrations to the basket and being aggressive in the defense, using Duncan
who has now more space as the Hornets need to be concerned to what Parker and
Ginobili can do if they aren't double teamed. With the series being so close
and putting face to face the reigning champions and the team with most post
season games in the last decade against a team with almost no experience at
this level, it's hard not to think that experience will either give the Spurs a
road win in the Game 5 or 7. But the Hornets have been underrated hundreds of
times this season and they have already proved that they can beat anyone,
anytime. Right now the series is pretty much 50/50, as the Spurs have the
experience and a coach who is a genious, but the Hornets still have the home
court advantage and it won't be easy to defeat them, as they are extremely good
in close games, even against teams so experienced like the Spurs.