Denver at Detroit

 

Denver comes for tonight's game with the flashlights on them all over the world. They scored 168 points in regulation time against Seattle and almost beated the NBA record of points in regulation time. But it's not just that. In this home streak of 3 games, Denver literally spank their opponents, winning by 22 points against Memphis, 32 against Toronto and 52 against Seattle! They have also won 5 of their last 7 games, but the team continues to be out of the playoffs spots. Today they will star a road trip of 5 games, which will define their future this season. Marcus Camby agrees with that:

"We know it's not going to be that easy as we embark on this road trip," Camby said. "The next week is probably going to define our season, we have to come out with the right mindset Tuesday."

And there won't any bigger challenge than go to play at Detroit, where Denver doesn't win since 1995! It will hard for them to win today, as remember Denver has a home record of 28-7, but just a 12-19 on road matches. Detroit in normal conditions would play this match already thinking about the matchup with Lebron and the Cavs tomorrow, but the fact Denver scored 168 points in the last game definitely caught their attention for this game.

The Pistons come from three home matches where they have just allowed 83, 80 and 84 points. What bigger contrast could we have in here? I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit would take this game as a challenge to their defense. After all they are 11-20 O/U at home and when this team is lightning up, watch out!

This game is extremely important for Denver. In taking a side in here, I would only go for Detroit or in the opposite case, ML Denver is a good price, as usually when Denver loses a game they give up early and that's why I don't like Denver +6.

 

Miami at Milwaukee

The lines are off due to several injured players.
 

Yi Jianlian         ankle/wrist: probable
Charlie Villanueva         sprained right ankle: probable
Udonis Haslem sprained left ankle: doubtful
Shawn Marion   sore back: Probable

 

This is a game between two teams who are struggling to win right now. Miami has lost 9 of their last 10 games, while Milwaukee has just won 2 of their last 10. Miami had an easy schedule, but they lost 6 of their last 7 home games, including games against the Knicks (88-91) and the Clippers (98-99). And Marion played both games!

The Bucks on the other side had tough home games with terrible matchups for them, as they faced Boston, Utah, Sixers and Portland, all these teams with a powerful frontcourt and for example, the Bucks against Boston had a lot of problems in scoring in the paint, getting outscored by 24-50. Without Bogut, they are basically a jump shooting team with Redd, Mo Williams and Charlie Bell as the first options in the offensive end. When they guys shoot 4-12, 2-6 and 7-13 FG like against Boston, there's no way the Bucks can win a game. But this won't happen tonight. The max points Miami scored in the paint in their last four games with just 32 pts. So the main question in here is to know which line will the bookies offer. It's hard to believe that the spread will be below 10pts. In the last road game of Miami and still with Marion and Wade, the Heat were 8.5 points dog at Atlanta. Double digits points make this game a tough one, but the Bucks can cover such a large spread.

 

 

New Jersey at Chicago

 

Yesterday,  the Bulls, thanks to their strange defeat at home against the Sixers and the tough spot the Hornets had a great opportunity to win at road. And I really thought this would be a great opportunity for the Bulls. But guess what? For 41 minutes the Bulls not only were competitive, but they were also leading the game. With 7 minutes to go, the Bulls were up by 93-84, just to suffer a run of 2-24, lose the game by 11 points and get outscored in the 4th quarter by 20 points (11-33) twice in a row. How is this possible?

Today they have a b2b home game against the Nets. New Jersey have won their last two games, which were at home and against tough opposition, Cleveland and Utah. However I cannot forget that they went 0-5 in their road trip last week, including a defeat by 93-100 at Memphis. It's hard to predict how the Bulls are going to react. This game will be a tough battle for the playoffs. The Nets are well rested, but the Bulls are coming to this game with a bounce back mode activated. However, how can we trust them?

 

 

Lakers at Dallas

Another western clash today and with the way the standings are right now, these games are extremely important for every top team. And until the end of the season all these teams will have a sequence of 3/4 tough games and that's what will define the future of the team this season. This is the 3rd game of the Lakers in this sequence of 4 hard games for them. Today they will play at Dallas and next Thursday they will go to Salt Lake City to face Utah.

On the other side, Dallas after a bad phase right after the debut of Kidd, where they lost 4 of 5 games against teams Spurs, Lakers, Utah and Houston, had a sequence of games after easy opponents, where the Mavs slaughtered them: 5-0 ATS with the shortest spread being 11 points. Today they face the Lakers in their first real test for the playoffs.

Another important fact is that "Kobe Bryant did what any other gym rat might do after a poor-shooting game. He returned to the gym as quickly as possible and worked on his jump shot, hoping an extra practice session would solve his troubles."

 

Boston at Houston

Boston showed yesterday a lot of heart against beating the Spurs on the road, after trailing by 22 points. This was also the game where Sam Cassell showed why he joined Boston.  It will be very hard for them to play a b2b game with the same intensiveness of yesterday. And who can stop the Rockets now? Last Sunday against the Lakers they began a phase of very hard games. Today they will face Boston, then the Hornets, Warriors, Suns and all in road games.

This game will be very intense. Ray Allen is listed day to day. The bookies are yet to release the lines, but I will think about the under if the line is higher than 185 points. If the line is lower, then I'll just watch this great game.

 

Golden State at Sacramento

The Warriors have today a trap game, as they are 8th in the Conference right now, they can't lose games against sub 0.500 teams, as all their remaining games are against teams from the Western conference! They are coming to this game with a record of 8-2 in their last 10 games, with both defeats coming in b2b games against the Suns and the Bobcats. Today they initiate a span where they'll have 5 games in 7 days, including at 21 a game against the Rockets and an away-home b2b series with the Lakers.

The Kings have won 3 of their last 4 games and they are coming to this game with some confidence. It wasn't long ago that they've beaten the Lakers on the road. With two red hot teams facing each other, I like the over, as this will be a shootout, in a game which will have more than 180 FG. However, the line opened at 229 points, maybe too high. The Kings are 1-4 O/U in game with totals higher than 220 points and the Warriors are 1-3 O/U in their last four games. That happened as they were coming from a sequence of overs and the lines got higher than it should.

 

Phoenix at Portland

 

Portland has been making a late push in a last try of still going to the playoffs and they are 6-4 in their last 10 games. But frankly, the wins besides their biggest win of the season against the Lakers were against sub 0.50 teams. In fact the four losses were against Golden State, Cleveland, Phoenix and Sacramento. But we may not forget what they are capable of doing at home. Portland comes to this game with revenge after losing by 92-97 against the Suns in the last h2h, in a game where they were down by 23 points and cameback to make the match a ballgame.

Meanwhile the Suns took advantage of a sequence of 4 home games to win and they are coming to this game with a lot of confidence. With Shaq now fitting in the team, the Suns can now play at any rhythm and be competitive at the same time. If they want to play run and gun, they defeat the Warriors by 123-115 and Shaq plays 15 minutes. If they want a physical game and halfcourt defense, no problem. They defeat the Spurs by 94-87 with Shaq playing 35 minutes. The team is now more complete and we only need to know which rhythm will Portland want to put in the game today. I like the under in this game, as 210 points can be too high, but if Portland wants to speed up the pace, this will be tough to go under.