Hi Guys!
I'm a new addition to the new pregame brand blog. Who follows what happens in
the forum knows that I follow the NBA closely, giving out a lot of information
to the people understand better what's going on in the NBA world. You have
probably noticed my previews for each team in the beginning of the season. So
at the All Star break, I've decided that it was worthy to make a review of what
happened and what is going to happen until the end of the regular season.
That's why I present to you my report of the 1st half of the NBA season. Enjoy it!
Before the beginning of the season, I wrote an extensive article about
all 30 teams in the NBA. So it's normal that at the all-star break, I've
decided to make another article to say what we can wait until the end of the
regular season. And it's in this part of the season where we are getting closer
to the playoffs that the teams start adapting to their realities. Curiously the
same thing happen with the bettors. And that's why we have to analyze very well
what the bookies will offer.
Last season after the all-star break, the best two teams of the regular
season, Dallas and Phoenix, went 14-19 and 17-16 ATS respectively, while going
24-9 and 25-9 SU. But if we look to the bottom of the league, we see that the
two worst teams last season, Memphis and Boston, went 17-11 and 19-12 ATS,
while going 8-20 and 11-20 SU. The conclusion is simple: typically the bettor
doesn't like to go with underdogs who won't be capable of winning the game
outright and this takes the bookies to raise the spreads higher than they would
normally do. In fact, an handicapper can use this fact for his side and realize
that the line isn't correct and get advantage from it.
Analyzing now this season, there is a huge difference in the
competitiveness between the West and the East. If the best two teams of the
league are right now in the East (Boston and Detroit), the competitiveness in
the West is way bigger. In fact, the difference between the first in the
Western conference (New Orleans) and the 8th in the conference is just 4
games! But there are three teams with the same record (32-20) in the eighth
place, so the difference between the 1st and the 9th in the West is just 4
games. In terms of handicapping this will be useful, especially in the totals,
where a lot of games will be played just like a typical playoff game! Until
now, in the games between teams from the West, the under has been dominating
(202 overs and 244 unders - 45.3% of overs). As we will still have a lot of
"pre-playoff" games, where obviously there will be less points than
the usual thanks to the intensiveness, if the bookies don't adjust the lines,
we may have a very strong edge in the under. The bookies have been perfect in
the games between two teams from the West: 224-224 ATS!
On the other side, the gap in the East is huge and there are 19 games
between Boston (1st) and Philadelphia (8th) in the standings. Just five teams
in the conference have a positive record, while there are ten teams with a
positive record in the West (Portland is 10th, with a record of 28-24).
Curiously in the East, the over has been dominating (236 overs - 216 unders).
This domination is thanks to the problems the bookies are having in adjusting
to the new run and gun styles of Indiana, Orlando or even Charlotte and Miami.
With this analysis, I'll take this article go even deeper. Taking in
consideration my stats, I'll elaborate the Power Ranking of the 1st half of the
season and predict what the teams can or can't do until the end of the regular
season.