The New Orleans Saints (at about 20-1 odds) are a great "long-shot" bet to win Super Bowl 49. The key to winning it all for the 2 teams that are nearly unbeatable at home (Saints and Seahawks) will to be to secure the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage, and the Saints are primed to do so this year. In no way is this a guarantee. The Saints have a lot of defensive holes to fill after cutting several players due to salary cap issues, and if they lose Drew Brees between now and next January, they have little chance in advancing. But in my opinion, they are at least a top 3 team in the NFC,along with Niners and Seahawks.
This past year, I picked the Seattle Seahawks to win it all. Part of the reason was because I felt they could secure home-field advantage in the superior NFC conference. And it played out as I had anticipated. Both the Seahawks and the Saints are (nearly) unbeatable at home. The NFC West is clearly the most difficult division in the NFL. In my opinion, all 4 teams are capable of making it to the playoffs. That is why I argue neither team (Seahawks, Niners, Cards, Rams) will be able to secure home-field advantage. They will have 3 home and 3 road games against the toughest opponents, which will likely lead to key injuries and 1 or 2 losses for the top teams.
The NFL schedule won't be released for a few more months. But the Saints already played the NFC West this past year (along with AFC East) and will likely play 4 games against either the NFC North or East. Either way, a drop off from facing the NFC West. Bottom line, an easier schedule along with 8 home games (probably a split record versus the Carolina Panthers) will likely lead to a great opportunity at a 12- or 13-win season and home-field advantage.
Just like this past year, the NFC championship truly was/is the Super Bowl. The AFC is so weak that the winner of the NFC will eat them alive (again). So you're better off trying to pick the NFC championship winner and at 20-1 (or 18-1 at some books) its definitely worth the risk.