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Denver/Seattle AWAY ONLY Averages

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Thread Starter Denver/Seattle AWAY ONLY Averages
brettuthius
Joined: 03/13/2012
Posts: 199
Jr. College
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I've went ahead and compiled stats for each team when they've played AWAY. This eliminates Seattle's 12th Man and Denver's Mile High advantages. I also did not include any points that were scored in overtime to avoid any number inflation.

Seattle averaged 22.6 points per game with 134.6 rushing yards and 193.25 passing yards.

Denver averaged 36.25 points per game with 126 rushing yards and 333.1 passing yards.

Seattle's defense allowed 15.1 points per game with 109.5 rushing yards and 183.5 passing yards.

Denver's defense allowed 27 points per game with 94.1 rushing yards and 274.4 passing yards.

Interestingly, both lost in Indianapolis by 6 points. Another common opponent was the NYG - Denver won by 18 and Seattle won by 23.

Too lazy, didn't read: When on the road, Seattle won on average by 7.5 points. When on the road, Denver won on average by 9.25 points.

If anyone was wondering about the strength of schedules, I would say Denver had the harder schedule as they played 5 above average teams (Dallas, Indy, SD, NE, and KC) and Seattle only faced 4 (Carolina, Indy, Arizona, SF). Sorry for any Rams fans out there - I cannot count them as 'above average' even if they did win 5 games at home this year.

connemara
Joined: 05/08/2011
Posts: 2125
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Top 500 Contributor

Sea17-14!

brettuthius
Joined: 03/13/2012
Posts: 199
Jr. College
Not Ranked

I know this doesn't matter much but let's take the middle numbers here and see what we get for projections:

Seattle should rush for 114.35 yards, pass for 233.8 yards, and score 24.8 points.

Denver should rush for 117.75 yards, pass for 258.3 yards, and score 25.675 points.

While I'm in a math mode on a Friday night, let's go deeper by eliminating the numbers for each of the 'cupcake games' each team faced. Again, we'll take the middle numbers.

Seattle should rush for 121.5 yards, pass for 261.3, and score 28 points.

Denver should rush for 120.8 yards, pass for 248.5, and score 28 points.

What can we take away from this? Well for starters it shows that statistically, should be a VERY CLOSE game going down to the wire (keep in mind that both kickers are very good but I would think Prater wins the battle most of the time). Secondly, both teams' offensive performances basically go UP when facing better teams (the Bronco's clock management strategy for the SB will probably slow it down a bit). Thirdly, we notice that both teams averages for rushing and passing and scoring are significantly higher than the league average (112.9, 235.6, and 23.4 respectively). Fourthly, (my numbers do not include this stat at all) we see that (based on footballoutsiders.com) Seattle has the 6th (weighted) best special team compared to Denver's 28th (weighted ranking) special team (this of course does not account each team Away so it is not a major factor to me).

In conclusion my numbers do support Denver winning the game but they also suggest a VERY TIGHT game much like thousands of others have said. I believe that the stats suggest that the game will come down to which team has better special teams (which Seattle does have on total average). These stats also suggest that both teams will actually be going for it on offense (Seattle will try and exploit Denver's defensive troubles) and Denver will try and keep it on offense no matter what (in order to tire out Seattle's defense which may payoff late in the game if Denver has a chance to win in the last few minutes).

My suggestion: 2 Team 7 pt Teaser: Seattle +9 & Over 41.5

Too Lazy; Didn't Read: I project Denver to win 26-24

brettuthius
Joined: 03/13/2012
Posts: 199
Jr. College
Not Ranked

I see that the line has moved to Seattle +2.5 already. I do expect to see Seattle +3 tomorrow at some point but it may not last long since SHARP money will be all over it. I will be taking the +3 as well as there is WAY too much value there even though I think Denver will come out on top much like the Duke/Syracuse game that I watched earlier (I've never gotten sweatier than a player just by watching a game before). At +3 we can get Seattle +10 & Over 41 (perhaps 40.5 if public keeps slamming the Under).

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