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My 112 most-important NFL handicapping trends (Week 14)

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Thread Starter My 112 most-important NFL handicapping trends (Week 14)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15510
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(Using raw data format this week . . . will try to use the new Game Story format starting next week)

Chiefs @ Redskins +3 -- 1 p.m.

Alex Smith last 38 games as a starter: 29-8-1 SU

Andy Reid on road: 61% ATS in career (76-48 ATS)

League-wide trend:
3rd straight home game, after losing first two: 20-6-1 ATS

KC its last 3 games has yielded 103 points

Only 4 teams with a worse “Net Yards Per Play” than Kansas City

Washington rushes for the most raw yards per game in the league (5 yards per carry)

KC gains least yards per pass attempt in NFL.
Washington yields most yards per pass attempt in NFL

Vikings @ Ravens (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.

Baltimore 11-1 SU (9-3 ATS) under Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest.

Teams that have played two straight overtime games: 19-19-1 ATS
(the tiredness effect seems to be accounted for)
 
Baltimore has covered 7 of 8 at home

Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 13-35 against the spread.

Ravens: 7 of last 9 games decided by 3-points or less

Only one team with a worse “yards per play” on offense than Baltimore

Minnesota giving up most points per game in the NFL

Browns @ Patriots (xxx) -- 1 p.m.


The SU winner of the last 24 Cleveland games has covered 22 times (spread has mattered only twice)

If opponent has lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 33-13 ATS (in Tom Brady era)

Past 4 games, Brady completed 70% of passes (115 of 164)
4 games before that: completed only 52% of passes

New England has won 36 of 39 regular season home games (SU)

Patriots 6-19 ATS as a double digit favorite

Home team has covered 8 straight in Patriots games

Patriots at home in December: 28-2 SU

Last 2 games, Patriots trailed at halftime by a combined 34 points (won both games)

Per play basis: Pats in bottom half of league offensively

Browns best defense in NFL (per play)

Raiders @ Jets (-3)-- 1 p.m.

Jets 16-2 at home off a loss at home

Geno Smith: 8 touchdown passes; 25 turnovers on season
(the winner of the turnover battle covers 77% of NFL games)
Last 7 games for Smith: 1 touchdown and 11 interceptions

Jets as home favorite: 51-86 ATS

Last 25 seasons, Jets only the 22nd team to score 3 points or less in two straight games:
those teams the next game: 3-18 straight up
Such teams have NEVER covered the next game as a favorite

Last 3 weeks on offense:
Second least productive team gained 4.6 yards per play on offense.
Jets gained only 4.0 yards per play

Jets yield the least yards rushing per game (less than 3 yards per carry)

Early Line on this game (before last week’s games): Jets -4 

Colts @ Bengals (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.

If Cincy had won two recent OT games, they would be 10-1 SU last 11

Road team in Bengals games has covered only 2 of last 14

Luck on road in career: 17 TD and 16 INTS

Colts in December: 10-2 ATS

Indy less than 2 hour drive to Cincy

Only 3 teams with a better “net yards per play” than Bengals (Seattle, Denver, Saints)

SNF: Panthers @ Saints (-3) – 8:30 p.m.

Only 4th time in last four seasons under Coach Payton that Saints are not more than a FG favorite at home.

Panthers have covered 7 of 8
 
Panthers have covered 7 straight as a road dog (winning last 5 straight-up)

Saints 12-1 ATS at home after a loss on the road (since September 2008)

Cam Newton in one-score games: 5-14 SU in career (won last 3)

Saints have covered 15 of 20 regular season games under Payton

Teams off Seattle game: 17-37-4 (31%) the next week (last 4 seasons)

Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 4-18 ATS last 22

Last 15 games under Coach Payton at home
Saints have NOT lost even once against the spread

Saints have won and covered 9 straight primetime home games.

Coach Payton off a loss: 16-4 ATS streak

Panthers covered 10 of 12 in New Orleans
 
Carolina has not given up more than 24 points this season

Early Line on this game (before last week’s games): Saints -4.5

Lions @ Eagles (-3) -- 1 p.m.

Eagles 2-17 ATS when favored for a second straight week

Quarterback Foles is red-hot: 19 TDs and zero INTs

Philly also doing it with defense: holding 8 straight opponents to 21 points or less

Eagles: covered only 4 of last 25 home games

Visitor in Eagles games: 15-3 ATS run

Lions on the road (starting in 2006): 23-38-2

Lions after scoring 30 points or more last week, have lost 11 straight ATS

Philly has been home since November 11

Only Denver has a better offensive “Yards Per Play” than Philly

Philly defense yields the most yards passing per game in the NFL

Dolphins @ Steelers (-3) -- 1 p.m.

Road team in Miami games 55-36 ATS

Steelers have lost 13 of 14 games ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati

Dolphins have lost 13 straight games after playing Jets – 2005 was the last time they won a game after playing the Jets!

Steelers down to third string center.

Bills @ Buccaneers (-2.5) -- 1 p.m.

True home team in Bills games: 12-1 ATS

Bills last 37 games: lost against the spread by a NET 141 points combined

Titans @ Broncos (-12) -- 4:05 p.m.

24th straight game Denver is favored

Titans 5-1 on the road this season

Bookmaker Bob Scucci says he downgrades Peyton Manning up to 2.5 points in bad weather.

Denver ATS at home (25-38) since 2006

And Tennessee is BAD when overmatched on the road:
as an away underdog of 5 or more,
the Titans have covered only 5 of 18 ATS

Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003

Home teams has covered only 2 of last 12 Titans games

Third straight road game for Titans
(NFL teams playing 3rd straight road game have covered 8 of last 9)

Strong Tennessee pass TD: yielded only 8 TD passes (with 10 INTS) on the season

Denver scores 10 points more per game than the 2nd highest scoring team in the league

Rams @ Cardinals (-6.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Only 4th time in last four seasons Arizona is favored by more than 6 points.

Cards (7-4 SU last 11 games): losing only: at SF, at Saints, at Philly, vs. Seattle

Arizona has improved in the Vegas Power Rankings the most of any team since start of the season

Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 89-59 ATS (60%) in his coaching career

Any road underdog off a road loss: 64% ATS since 2003

Only 3 teams with a better “net yards per play” than Arizona (Seattle, Denver, Saints)

Giants @ Chargers (-3) -- 4:25 p.m.

Giants on road under Caughlin: 53-32 ATS (62%)

Giants on road off a road win: 18-3 ATS

Chargers: Worst defense in league (yards per play)

Seahawks @ 49ers (-3) -- 4:25 p.m.

First time Seattle is an underdog this season

Pete Carroll has been VERY strong anytime getting points:
cover 15 of last 18 as an underdog.

The week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 48-82 ATS (37% since 2005)

49ers at home under Harbaugh are 19-6-1 ATS

Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (51-23-1)
On road during same period: 40% (30-45-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 96-53-2 (64% winners)

Seattle: 19-7 ATS overall last 26

Seattle 14-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.

Coach Harbaugh 10-0-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700! 

First Vegas line on this game (released by Cantor in May):
SF -2.5 (implying either than Seattle as underperformed or SF has over performed???)

Falcons @ Packers (xxx) -- 1 p.m.

December home games since 1992
Packers 30-13-2 ATS

Packers overall in December: 20-9 ATS

Packers have lost 5 straight ATS since Rodgers was hurt (losing to the spread by a combined 69 points)

Packers defense has yielded 22 TD passes with only 6 interceptions

Packers have allowed 26 point or more every game since Rodgers was hurt

MNF: Cowboys @ Bears (pk) -- 8:40 p.m.

Dallas 1-13 ATS as a favorite after a win (if Dallas becomes a favorite in game)
 
Bears defense has yielded 205 yards rushing per game (last 6 games)

Dallas has been outgained by over 1000 yards on the season

Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 30% of games in December (10-23-1)
(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)

Dallas 1-7 ATS on MNF
Dallas 1-10 ATS favored on MNF

Per Play:
Bears 6th best offense
Bears 28th best defense

Only 2 teams with a worse Net Yards Per play than Dallas

Dallas defense yields the most yards per game in the league.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Friday: My NFL Dream Podcast - with Steve Fezzik and David Malinsky

el_LOCo
Joined: 09/19/2012
Posts: 38
Practice Squad
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Thanks for providing this info each week.

I personally would prefer it stayed this format, without the new game story because I find it might influence decisions, instead of just providing trends and facts.

For eg last week for Seattle vs Saints game you highlighted you opinion:

Seattle considered to be a slightly better team with maybe the strongest home field in NFL. Would lay -3.5 or take +6. In-between means PASS.

This made me take Saints +7 when I thought Seattle all week long.

So it feels as if you are providing you own opinions on alot of these games.

Im not sure if thats you intention.

But if you do decide to go with the new game story format, thats ok, I will just try to delete the highlighted parts without reading them, so it does not influence my decisions.

Byeweekpicks
Joined: 10/10/2010
Posts: 579
All American
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Great info.  Thanks RJ.

All past plays at byeweekpicks.com

Twitter: @byeweekpicks

2014 NFL Record: 11-13, -1.1 units

2013 NFL Record: 42-37-1 (53%), +1.4 units

2012 NFL Record: 41-31-2 (57%), +8 units (1unit=6% bankroll)

2011 NFL Record: 34-25-2 (58%) , +3.4 units (1 unit=6% bankroll)

2010 NFL Record: 25-14-2 (64%) +11.9 units (1 unit=6% of bankroll)

2009 NFL Record: 37-24-4 (61%) +16.3 units (1 unit=6% of bankroll)

2008 NFL Record: 39-24-3 (62%) +16.8 Units (1 unit=6% of bankroll)

2007 NFL Record: 42-27-2 (61%) +14.7 Units

Johnny Detroit
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 23816
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NFL Sunday bump.

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RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15510
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Saints up to -3 -120 at all 7 Vegas books we track.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Friday: My NFL Dream Podcast - with Steve Fezzik and David Malinsky

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15510
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Friday: My NFL Dream Podcast - with Steve Fezzik and David Malinsky

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 23130
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

Before you hit radio RJ one more rid bit for SNF

The Superdome is looking to break the record for the loudest stadium that was set last week in Seattle...it's going to happen b/c drunk Cajuns in a Dome are a lot louder than weed smoking Treehuggers outside in the cold

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

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