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My 57 most important NFL handicapping tips (Week 8)

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Thread Starter My 57 most important NFL handicapping tips (Week 8)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15786
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49ers vs (in London) vs. Jaguars (+16.5) -- 1 p.m.

After high profile losses to Seattle and Indy
covered 4 straight since – covering by a combined 58 points

In last 3 games combined, 49ers have been outgained yardage-wise.

Gore: 405 yards rushing last 4 games.

If spread reaches 17:
Underdogs +17 or more: 21-7 ATS (from 1992 onward)

Winless underdog (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS (since 1992)

Cowboys @ Lions (-3.5) -- 1 p.m.

Underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (39-16 ATS the last 4 seasons)

Cowboys, after winning a game: 5-15 ATS

Detroit:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)

Giants @ Eagles (-6) -- 1 p.m.

Eagles have not covered a home game since 2011!
(losing 11 straight against the spread)

Giants on road under Caughlin: 51-32 ATS (61%)

Giants:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)

Browns @ Chiefs (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.

Alex Smith last 33 games as a starter: 27-5-1 SU

KC has defeated only one team with a winning record (Cowboys)

Road underdog off a road loss: 64% since 2003

With a low total (39), big underdog points more valuable.

The SU winner of the last 19 Cleveland games has covered 18 times (spread has mattered only once)

Bills @ Saints (-11) -- 1 p.m.

Bills week after playing Dolphins: 11-36 ATS (from 1990)

Bills last 32 games: lost against the spread by a NET 135 points combined

Saints have covered 12 of 14 regular season games under Payton

Saints under Coach Payton have covered 12 straight at home.
Saints: (Last 7 seasons): Saints have covered 62% of games at home
but less than half their games on the road

Saints off bye (4-0 ATS and SU off bye, winning by average of 17 ppg)

Saints 11-1 ATS under Coach Payton when favored by a touchdown or more

Team 4-0 or better, before losing last game: 22-37-1 next game (37% since 1992)

Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.

New England has won 33 of 36 regular season home games (SU).

Belichick off a straight-up loss: covered 24 of 33 ATS

If opponent has lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 32-12 ATS (in Tom Brady era)

Tom Brady threw a TD in 52 straight games. His only TD pass in his last three games was the last second miracle vs. New Orleans.

Visitor in Miami games 54-31 ATS

Jets @ Bengals (-6.5) -- 4:05 p.m.

Bengals: 11-4 overall ATS run

Bengals have won only one game this season by more than a touchdown

After a two game road trip, Cincy has covered only 1 of 12 the next game at home

Steelers @ Raiders (+2.5) -- 4:05 p.m.

Raiders off Bye; Steelers off rivalry game against Baltimore

Oakland: lost 10 in a row SU off a bye (9 of 10 ATS).

Favorite in Raiders games: 11-3 ATS last 14

Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight ATS outside of the Eastern Time Zone

Redskins @ Broncos (-11.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Broncos have covered only 1 of last 5 games

Denver ATS at home (23-38) since 2006

Team 4-0 or better, before losing last game: 22-37-1 next game (37% since 1992)

Denver:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)

Falcons @ Cardinals (-2.5) -- 4:25 p.m.

Cards at home are 56% against the spread – last 10+ seasons (49-38 ATS)

Arizona: has not covered as a favorite since the 2011 season

Teams that played Seattle last week are winless ATS this season.

Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 3-18 ATS last 21

The last 5 games, Carson Palmer has average MORE THAN 2 interceptions per game

At last count: 71% of bets back the underdog (updated at http://SportsbookSpy.com)

Arizona:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)

Packers @ Vikings (+9) -- 8:30 p.m.

Home team in Packers games have covered 13 of 14 ATS

Home team has covered 5 in a row in this series

Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 23-3 ATS last 26!

GB: 32-11 ATS in Division (11 of last 12 ATS)

Green Bay plays Chicago next week

When the Vegas line opened in May on this game:
Packers were favored by 1
before last week’s games: Packers were favored by 6.5

MNF: Seahawks @ Rams (+11) -- 8:40 p.m.

Since 1990, only TWO Monday Night home teams have been bigger underdogs.

Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 23-3 ATS last 26!

Seattle: 16-5 ATS overall last 21

Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (49-22-1)
On road during same period: 40% (29-44-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 93-51-2 (65% winners)

Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 87-57 ATS (60%) in his coaching career

Since 2001, Monday Night Home underdogs: 28-42 ATS (40%)

Seattle has covered 6 straight MNF games

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
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RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15786
Rank NA
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RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Sunday: Membership is FREE at Pregame.com and comes with $25 bonus! No Credit Card. No Hassle.

lrcredneck85
Joined: 12/05/2012
Posts: 7257
All Pro
Top 75 Contributor

thank you for posting this.  several of my gut feeling plays line up directly with trends you reveal on the games.  Solid info and I hope to make the best of it.

Bone
Joined: 04/05/2010
Posts: 2532
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

very interesting on that kc info  good stuff thanx

Dont post often just post winners

 

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