On the other side of the playing field, numerous oddsmakers have
told me they prefer to root for favorites when they shade lines. Solid
two-way action is always the top goal, but if that scenario isn?t
happening oddsmakers feel more secure needing the Colts to cover rather
than the Bengals.
Jay Rood, an oddsmaker with MGM Mirage, says
the situation he fears the most is a team so bad it can not cover no
matter how many points it?s getting.
?I don?t like seeing teams
like Detroit this season,? Rood says. ?Teams who are winning and
covering each week - at least we?ve got a fighting chance with them. We
can continue to set the line higher and higher. Like the Patriots last
season.?
New England started last season 8-0 ATS but only covered two of its games the rest of the way, including playoffs.
Rood
says bettors aren?t afraid of backdoor covers with clubs like this
year?s Lions. The lack of fear makes the goal of an evenly-bet match no
more than a pipedream.
Professional handicapper Steve Merril is aware of this dilemma linesmakers face with brutally bad clubs.
?The
problem with fading bad teams is that oddsmakers are normally forced to
adjust the lines faster since the public wants nothing to do with ugly
underdogs,? Merril says.
Even god-awful teams cover the spread.
Over the last five years there has been only three teams finish with
less than five ATS wins in a season. During that same time period there
has been six teams tally 11 ATS wins or more.
?The most feared scenario is a great team that covers week in and week out,? says Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED.com. ?The great teams get all the press and because of that, backers start hopping on the bandwagon quickly.
?There
is almost no stopping the backers coming in on a team that has proven
to be capable of covering any spread we post. When that happens, the
books are in a tough situation.?
Fading bad teams and backing good ones is such an elementary concept but it can sometimes be neglected.
A
Vegas wise guy once told a friend of mine that the winning team covers
the number 70 percent of time. With that in mind, maybe we should all
stop trying to outsmart ourselves and just keep it simple? stupid.