Hey guys my first time posting plays up here in a while cuz had to sit around and do some more learning before i decided to do so... spent a lot of time thinking about these plays that i made this week so far... have not yet decided on any straight bets but since there were so many teams at home this week who need wins to guarantee themselves the playoffs i decided to combine them in a couple 4 team 13 pt teasers which seem pretty dam BEAUTIFUL to me since i am truly willing to lose as much as i have wagered if:
1. arizona cannot win at home after B2B losses vs giants at home and eagles in philly needing a win now was st. louis in a game that would guarantee their first playoff spot in forever if they win
2. indy cannot win at home vs cincinatti needing this win to move closer to a playoff berth and to even give them a possibility to play tenn in their last home game for the division title if tenn loses - but tenn game is at 1 pm and so is this game so indy will be focused on winning rather than depending on tenn losing... brackett is out but tony dungy said bob sanders has a "good chance" to play this week... cincy has tons of ppl on IR and while housh is still competing i feel that the defense will not be able to hold up against peyton manning and addai... one more thing is indy's main weakness is their run defense and cedric benson is not the best rb to take advantage of that
3. tennesse cannot win at home vs cleveland with ken dorsey starting at qb and tenn. clinches division with win... enough said
so after seeing that i can take arizona -1(changed n i lose on tie but still would be shocked if its a one point win) , indy -.5, and tenn -.5 i had to decide what to take as my fourth play so i decided to take the teaser twice... along with one more teaser and a cpl small parlays one of which is to offset my tampa bay teaser which is for one more unit than the dallas one....
took dallas +16 bc its supposed to snow at heinz field dallas needs this win and pitt usually plays bad against teams with good d-line bc pitt o-line is slacking... dallas has the highpowered offense that has a chance against this def.... big ben also had a knee injury today and reportedly couldnt finish practice.. should be low scoring on bad surface and two good defenses so 16 hopefully should be enough
took tampa +16 bc is battle for division supremacy and carolina has not impressed me considering they have almost lost to the raiders and got close with detroit and got lucky to win last week in gb... tampa defense is ridiculous and i dont see dw putting up a very good performance leaving jake to force some tight balls and considering the fact that tampa had 3 pics vs drew brees i dont see jake doing too much better even though they have revenge factor but then again thats why i took other parlay with carolina ml so can possibly win both cuz i could see carolina maybee winning this one but not by more than 16 in what should be a relatively low scoring game with two good defenses..
i will most likely put a straight bet on chicago -6.5 at home vs jags - jaguars lost all hope last week and rashean mathis is now out... chicago lost a game they needed to win last week and now need this win to keep their shot up for the playoffs... this is similar to why i bet minn a few weeks ago in jacksonville bc is a great rushing defense vs a rush-oriented team... chicago should be angry after ap looked ridiculous against them last week and with the jags basically ready to give up on the season and on short rest from that demolition monday now traveling to chicago i dont see how they even stay close in this one.. chicago should win in blowout fashion might make this my play of the week
considering philly small +7
considering new orleans -3 -> have been great at home going 5-1 while 1-5 on road and need this win to keep playoff chase alive since falcons are 8-4 while they are 6-6 and division leading tampa and carolina are playing monday... reggie bush is ready to receive more playing time and pierre thomas has looked great recently so deuce does not make a big diff. charles grant was already out with an injury and will smith is actually a slight loss tho bc michael turner is a beast... drew brees is coming off 3 int in tampa though and now have a second divison game in a row back in the superdome... saints should get this win in a game where falcons are due for a letdown when public is supporting them after beating the veryyy dissappointing chargers last week - 90% on falcons ml and 64% on spread on sportsinsights.com
considering packers -6 -> they need this game but may not be a play bc shaub is probably coming back... sage would be guaranteed a few pics vs their pass defense but shaub would be an improvement however may be rusty... only problem is slaton is a beast and packers allowed 4 tds to deangelo williams last week
considering detroit? - only if kevin and pat williams will be out i heard their appeal may come through
dallas ml small?? - pitt coming off big division win vs patriots to put them ahead and now run into desperate dallas team at home on heinz field where it should be snowing which favors the defenses but dallas has a better offense than pitt - big ben hurt his knee in practice and does not play well vs teams with good d-line.. only playing this if ware is definately going to play...
seattle ml? small - maybe.. just bc 97% on pats ml and 94% on pats with spread and is sunday night game - ppl are fading seahawks like crazy bc blowout last week in dallas on thanksgiving day but seattle has extra rest and the so called 6th man will be going crazy to help their team win when the pats come to town.. pats are coming off beating so need this game though if they were coming off win i would like this play more..
fade or follow.... GL to any1 that follows and every1 else with their plays... would love to hear opinions