I wrote an article before preseason began regarding a successful approach I use in handicapping the opening week of football. Basically I write down every current NFL spread and total before the first preseason game kicks off. I then compare that number to the current line before the opening week games are played. If there is a spread move of 2 points or more I fade that move. The reason is simple, the public tends to overreact to what happens in the preseason. Games in which starters play limited minutes and each coach has different goals in the game. For example Atlanta plays to evaluate players, while new coaching staffs like Cleveland's play to win, in order to instill a winning attitude. By playing starters longer than their opponents the Browns were one team that took money based on preseason play.
Overall going against these line moves proved profitable again with an 8-3 73% mark. The key game in which the line moves ended up being correct came in the Arizona/St Louis contest in which the Rams moved from -6 to -3 1/2 with the total going from 40 to 43. St Louis won that game 27-24.
But other than that contest we saw many games in which the line moves were just wrong. New England from 7 to 10, Tampa Bay from 1 1/2 to 4, Cleveland from +1 1/2 to -2, Indianapolis from -7 to -11, Houston from -3 to -5 1/2. Some games involved quarterback changes, but once again their was an overreaction as Buffalo, the NY Jets and Oakland all had questionable starters at those positions to begin with.
The key point to remember here is that what you see in the preseason should be highly discounted. The intensity of a regular season game isn't there and every squad has different priorities. Keep that in mind next season when the Hall of Fame game comes around.
The Only Two Time Finalist in The $90,000 Cantor Football Showdown
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Money management, line shopping and reading the betting markets are just as important as picking the right side.
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Thanks Leonard for this Analysis!! Very informative, hopefully I can remember this next year!
Very interesting Bryan, thanks..
Great info Bryan. Thank You. Some how I need to store all of the information I get on this website from both the pro's and other members of the forums in a way that I can go back and make better bets. You learn so much on here but I find myself on the wrong side of a game only to remember a piece of information mentioned here only to have forgotten it.
Maybe the powers that be can add a favorite button to each post that appears in a certain area of the site in which you personally have full access when clicked upon. I know I would like something like that because it's impossible to remember all the solid posts I read on this site.
Bry- Just email me if you are looking for a specific link to one of my posts and I can help you out. Also when will your Golden Nugget GOY tickets be posted?
Master of Coin
"Posters of quality content like DubV are quite literally the reason I launched Pregame.com." -RJ Bell, CEO Pregame.com
Gave them to RJ 3 weeks ago. It's out of my hands now, but I've been posting the week to week bets here in the forum. 2-1 on the season with Iowa +4 this week.