Reply with the rating you MOST disagree with . . .
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasThursday: My Vegas Trends, Stats, and Handicapping Tips for NFL Week 13
You don't know who teams are drafting at this point and a lot of very good college players turn out to be marginal NFL level players or busts.
Prior to seeing a final team roster- how do you make a Power Rating for the teams with all of the player movement that is allowed in the NFL these days?
Thanks for posting these RJ.
Most OVER rated team: Pittsburgh
Roethlisberger isn't a young pup anymore and I don't think that he can take another beating like he did last year. This Pittsburgh team is just getting to old, they don't have the defense or the running game that they used either. I can see this team having a huge decline. Wallace doesn't look like he is coming back either. This team might even start a rebuild this year.
Most UNDER rated team: Washington
I am guessing that a lot of this low ranking has to do with RG3 getting hurt and the assumption that between the injury and defenses now having a full year of tape on Griffin, so they should be able to slow down that offense. I do agree that the 'Skins likely wont have the same success on the ground but they shouldn't fall completely off the board. Getting their best defensive player back has to help too.
I tried not to put up a full page report but I think those are the biggest key points. Thanks again for the great rankings.
I don't want to speak for Mr. Fezzik but for myself these early rankings are used for just a basic platform then I can make adjustments as things change and I do more research.
I hear you Borden- I see one piece of info. that might be useful and I understand that you'll be doing more research with whatever system you use. My point was to say that so many personnel changes take place every year that it's really hard to put a ranking of teams before you can actually see who is on the team. Fezzik's ranking of the teams would probably even be pretty different after the final roster is set prior to the 2013 season. We can verify this if and when he does this before the start of next season.
I didn't post this as a criticism of R.J. Bell providing the info.-I was just suggesting that it must be based on how the rosters look at this time.
I don't think my ratings will change much for the majority of teams. The Wash ratings assume No RG III opening day. Add 3 points if he is 100% healthy.
Note, I really think we need to rethink the bettor's bias for many teams. YES.........you hear "The public overbets NE !" over and over...........yet they cover well over 55% seemingly EVERY year. How can that be if their lines are biased 1.5 AGAINST them?
Maybe NE should have a MINUS 1.5 'sharp guy" bias, since their stats always SUCK vs. the W/l and the math geeks always hate NE due to their lousy pure stats YPplay, etc..... vs. their record.
The easy and most obvious pick is the Niners, who should be strong for years. I also have to like the Ravens again, as Flacco now impresses me a lot, along with that whole offense. We had the right two teams in the S.B.
I think that Denver and N.E. take a step backwards next year. Defenses should be able to tighten it up against Denver, as Manning is one year older and does not go deep any more (you knew they couldn't move the ball near the end of the playoff game) and I think that the same can be said Re the Pats, with a Brady who will start to run weaker on the motivation side ... he has been at this a long time. So, Manning and Brady start to wind down ....... And the Chargers, who have finally purged themselves of Norvitis and brought in a good management team, will compete with the Broncos next year.
The Saints should come back, especially if they can fix their defense.
You have to like any Aaron Rodgers team.
And there are some very interesting coaching changes that will throw a real wildcard element into the mix.
Based on not much quantitative justification:
I think you are on the mark with NE. It's almost like everyone thinks this team is on the decline because they aren't winning Super Bowls. Or maybe this team has been so good for so long that people are bored with them. The public bias seems to go to the new exciting teams (offenses). The Pats will continue to a highly rated team as long as they have the Hoodie, and their front office staff (GM, scouts, etc.) are still there.
What other teams are you looking at that our bettor bias needs to change?
Maybe, I'm out of the loop, but I really appreciate seeing you give Seattle 5 for home field. I have felt this way the past couple of years, and feel the line does not reflect this, or at least hasn't. Hopefully, that continues. It's nice to see this corroborated.