Public dictates line at this stage of playoffs.Last week 4-0 on favs.
Ravens vs. Broncos
2nd best Peyton Manning QB rating in career.Manning has beaten Ravens 9 straight games
Cold weather forcing Manning to wear glove(2-0 SU with 6 TD and 1 INT wearing glove this season)
Flacco has 4 road playoff wins in careerMORE than Montana, Bradshaw, Young, Aikman, Favre, Brady, and Peyton Manning(those legends are a combined 13-29 on the road in the playoffs, while Flacco has won half the time)
Last 8 games, Denver’s opponents had a win percentage of 34%.(According to Bill Barnwell, no playoff team had an easier 2nd half schedule going back to 1990)
Denver’s last 53 home games, they have covered only 18.
Baltimore: 2nd BEST offense at home in NFL, measured by yards per play.On the road: 3rd WORST offense in NFL.
Ravens played 4 playoff teams outside of their division this regular season: gave up over 34 ppg
Ravens at altitude:Short week (Sunday till Saturday)One less day to recover. One less day to prepare.Team knows it matters: Ravens changing travel schedule.(change of routine, another less day to prepare)Have not played in Denver since 2006.Older teams have more trouble.
Broncos only remaining playoff team with a negative turnover margin
Denver: 28th in fumble recovery percentage (unlucky)Win turnover battle covers 77.3% of time (4700 games)Win by more than one TO: 85%Win by more than two TO: 90% (1255 winners and 136 losers)
Denver led 31-3 after 3 quarters in first game vs. Ravens this year
What has changed since first match-up:McKinnie in at LT, Oher moved to RT
2003 was the last time the team with the best record in the NFL (or tied for the best record) won the Super Bowl. Denver. Falcons.
Packers at San Fran
You beat San Fran by running on them.5 games they didn’t win this year: yielded an average of 143 yards on the ground.Green Bay is below average in total rush yards and yards per attempt.
Vikings ran “read-option” 6 times last week – gaining 65 yards.
Mike McCarthy worst record in NFL in games decided by 3-points or less(might lead you to looking ML if you like SF and plus points if you like GB)
Packers under McCarthyWhen force Zero TO: 3-11 ATSWhen force 1 TO: 17-19 ATSWhen force 2 or more: 53-16 ATS (that’s 8% better than league)Only one team in the entire NFL gave the ball away LESS than 49ers.
Packers as an underdog are 18-6 against the spread last 24
Last 4 games: 11 touchdowns and zero INTs for Rogers.
Rogers 3-1 on road in playoffs.
Texans at Patriots
In the last 4 games of regular season:Texans covered by 2-points at home vs. ColtsIn the other three games,they lost against the spread by: 25 points, 23 points, and 17 points.
Houston: 3 offensive TDs the last 4 games
Coach Kubiack 41% in career as a dog of 4 or more points (13-19 ATS)
Texans best road “net yards per play” of any road team this weekend.
Patriots have covered only 6 of last 23 as double digit favorite.Bellichick covered only 1 of last 9 playoff games.
Last week was Schaub’s first playoff game.
Seattle at Falcons
To play this game, Seattle will have traveled 8,215 miles in less than 7 days.
On season: number of wins against winning teams:Falcons: 2Seahawks: 7
Seattle: fewer passes per game of any team in NFL.
Seattle on road since 2002: 38% ATS (32-52-1)Seattle lost to Lions and Dolphins on road this season
Fezzik’s power ratings say only 5 teams better than Falcons.
After losing a game, Falcons 20-3 ATS
Game starts 10 am Pacific Time
NFC #1 seed in division round lost 4 of last 5. Won 17 straight before that.
Last 2 teams Falcons lost to in playoffs won Super Bowl
Coach Smith 34-18 ATS as favorite
Falcons: Negative net yards per play AT HOME.Ryan at home: QB rating of 86 . . . 111 on road.
Ryan 33-6 SU at home in career
Ryan: 11 TD and 1 INT streak
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasFriday: My Pro Bettor Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 Deep Dive
At QB in GB v. SF: Hall of Famer v. unproven playoff newbie.
I've liked GB (possibly even money line) all week... But as the week goes on I feel that the public will be coming in hard on them... it scares me off the game completely.
This is great stuff RJ! (tempted to jack your notes and put em in my Thread, of course I'd cite the source :)
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"