Jets at Bills -3
Bills week after playing Dolphins: 10-36 ATS (since 1989)
Road team is 8-2 in series.
Dolphins at Patriots -10opened 11
If Houston wins at 1:00, and Denver is blowing at KC at 4:00, limited NE motivation in 2nd half. Max motivation if Texans lose at 1:00.
Patriots have covered only 5 of last 22 as double digit favorite.
Visitor in Miami games 50-28 ATS
Ravens at Bengals -2.5opened 3.5
First time Bengals favored over Ravens since 2008
Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 12-33 against the spread.
Baltimore gets 3rd seed with win and Patriots loss.But would they want to?4th seed likely host Colts then go to Houston.3rd seed likely host Bengals then go to Denver.
Browns at Steelers (NL)
First game under Tomlin that Steelers enter game eliminated from playoffs. How will team react?
Tomlin has NEVER lost game when taking the field with a losing record.
Browns: second straight road game after losing first: 59.4% league-wide since 2004
Texans at Colts +7opened 5.5
Houston controls destiny for #1 seed (likely drop to #3 if lose game)
How motivating will be Coach Pagano’s return at home?Desire to knock rival out of #1 playoff seed?Desire to keep team momentum?
Home team has covered 5 straight in series.
Luck’s QB Rating #29 in NFLLuck is favored to be Rookie of the Year.
Colts outscored by 42 points combined on season (10-5 record)
Jax at Tenn -4opened 5.5
Titans: Teams who lost by 30 or more last week: 153-117 (56.7% ATS) league-wide since 1990.
Jax: covered 6 of 8 road games.
Eagles at Giants -7.5opened -7
17% chance game matters for NYG (Dallas, Chicago, Minny all lose)(add in Giants win probability, 13% chance Giants make playoffs)
Bears game also played at 1:00 . . . blowout over Detroit would deject Giants.
Philly motivated by playing spoiler to rival?Vick audition?
Underdog 13-2 in this series.
Andy Reid is great on the road, covering over 60% of road games throughout his coaching career.
Giants are a historically POOR home teamLast 14 seasonscovered only 41% as a home favorite(38-55)2 winning seasons, 12 losing seasons
Since changing defensive coordinators, Eagles have given up 18 TD passes with 1 INT.
Philly is the ONLY team with less than 4 cashes against the spread this season.
Philly off a straight-up loss: 7-18 ATS (freefall rather than re-focus)
Cowboys at Redskins -3.5opened -5
Wash clinches wild card before game starts if Chicago and Vikings lose earlier.
First time Redskins favored over Cowboys since 2007
Underdog covered 21 of 28 in this series.
Shanahan has never lost ATS (5-0) to Jason Garrett
Washington has lost 14 straight ATS when playing at home against a team with fewer wins.
Shanahan: 5-22 ATS as a home favorite last 27 games
In the 3 years under Shanahan,Washington has covered as a favorite a TOTAL of 4 times.
Last 3 seasons: the underdog has covered 74% of Dallas games (35-12 ATS)
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 31% of games in December (10-22)(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)RG3: 20 TD, 5 INT on seasonBears at Lions +3
Unquestionable motivation for Bears.Play at 1:00 and only other game that matters (Vikings) plays at 4:00.Chicago: Beat Detroit 8 of 9 games.
Detroit: so much focus on Calvin Johnson record: letdown?Packers at Vikings +3.5
Unquestionable motivation for both teams:Packers control destiny for #2 seed.Vikings control destiny for WC berth.
GB: won 32 last 38 games
In division, Packers have won 12 straight SUand covered 23 of 31 in division
Packers: 20-8 ATS in December
Minny does not do well against good teams:covering only 6 of 22 vs. team with winning recordVikings: 18% chance Adrian Peterson beats Eric Dickerson’s rushing yardage record.
Bucs at Falcons (NL)
Coach Smith 34-17 ATS as favorite
Bucs 16-5 on road vs. team with winning home record.
Panthers at Saints -5.5opened -4
Panthers covered 10 of 11 in New Orleans
Saints: Covered 13 of 16 at home
Cam Newton last 7 games: 14 TDs; 3 INTs
As a young team on a roll, Carolina likely more motivated.Chiefs at Broncos -16
Denver: Controls destiny for #2 seed.
Biggest favorite Denver has ever been (in recorded spread history)
Underdogs greater than 2 TDs = 56.6% since 1990Only 2 prior this season; 2 this week
Vegas considers Denver to be clearly the best team in the NFL
Denver’s last 52 home games, they have covered only 17.
Underdog has covered 6 straight in series.
Raiders at Chargers (NL)
Raiders: If second straight road game after losing first: 59.4% league-wide since 2004
Coach Tuner in December is 20-5 SU (17-8 ATS)
Underdog has covered 7 straight in series.
Cardinals at 49ers -16.5opened -15
Biggest favorite for San Fran since 1998.
Biggest underdog in franchise history since 1978(St. Louis 17 point underdog to Cowboys)
49ers cover by 11 points per game following a SU loss under Harbargh
Cards covered only 40% on road since 2002 (35-52-2)
Rams at Seahawks -10.5opened -9.5
Seattle can still win division. 49ers game same time.If 49ers blowing out Arizona – limited motivation for Seattle in second half?
Seattle:(since new stadium in 2002): 63% ATS at home (53-31-1)On road during same period: 37% (31-52-1)If simply play on at home, against on road: 105-62-1 (63% winners)
Russell Wilson at home: 16 TDs and 2 INTS at home
Seattle: 19-5 ATS at home under Pete Carroll
Rams have won 4 of 5: undefeated in division.
Jeff Fisher is 85-53 ATS (62%) in his coaching career as an underdog.
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasSunday: My Pro Bettor Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 Deep Dive
thanks so much RJ , i have been looking for these numbers so as to prepare for this week . thanks so much ,Frank
Good stuff RJ!
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"