My personal NFL handicapping notes (Week 13)

Seattle at Chicago -3.5
opened 4.5

Seattle:
(since new stadium in 2002): 62% ATS at home (51-31-1)
On road during same period: 36% (29-52-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 103-60-1 (64% winners)

Bears CENTER out.

Russell Wilson at home: 11 TDs and zero INTS at home (6 TD and 8 INTs on road)

Seattle: long trip to Miami last week; now trip to Chicago.

Seattle: drug suspension distraction (this week, and season prospects)

Vikings at Packers -7.5
opened 9.5

Green Bay off worse loss since 2007

Last 4 in series, GB has won by avg 19 ppg

San Fran at St. Louis +7

Jeff Fisher is 82-53 ATS (61%) in career as an underdog.

San Fran: second best offense in NFL on YPP basis and best defense (best NET)

Rams: one of the WORST special team units in league.

Off loss, 49ers covered by average 12 points per game under Harbarrah

Cards at Jets -4.5
opened -4

Cards: Allowing 40 sacks the last 8 games (that more than any other team’s entire season total!)

Arizona worst offense in NFL on a YPP basis.

Arizona: 10 am body clock

Carolina at KC +3

Carolina: Only 5 teams with better net YPP in NFL

KC outscored by by a combined 140 points this season.

KC: last 19 games, scoring less than 13 ppg

Indy at Detroit -5
opened -4.5

Luck: 9 TD, 3 INT at home; 4 TD, 10 INT on road

One pro bettor has Colts ranked 26^th in league.

Lions play like a video game – a lot of bettors get excited by that
Detroit: 2^nd in offensive yards, 14^th in points
Detroit: 13^th in defensive yards, 23rd in points
The classic team that looks better than they actually perform

Jax at Bills -6

Road team has covered 10 of 11 Jacksonville games this season.

Henne: 99.6 passer rating (would be 7^th best in league)

Bills: biggest favorite in any game since 2009 season.

Jax: 61 points last two games under Hene; 65 points the five games before that

Pats at Miami +7.5

Patriots lost 3 games by a combined 4 points this season.
Patriots won 7 games by a combined 167 points this season

Visitor in Miami games 50-25 ATS (67%)

Pats: Play Texans next week on MNF

Bellichick: 11-4 ATS vs. rookie QBs

Patriots have not lost turnover battle in any game this season.

Houston at Tennessee +6
opened 4.5

Houston: Covered 17 of 21 with QB Schaub starting

Play Pats next week on MNF

Houston has not won by more than a TD in over a month.
Houston: yielded 68 points last 2 games

Buccs at Denver -7
opened -6.5

Buccs: Only team that has won 8 times ATS for backers.

Tampa better offense than Denver on a YPP basis.
But . . . Denver has 3^rd best defense (TB with 2^nd worst defense)

Manning has SECOND HIGHEST QB rating in career.

Denver lost 2 straight against the spread (i.e., underperformed)

Worst in the league giving up 315 ypp . . . no team in NFL history has every finished season giving up over 300.

Pitt at Baltimore

Baltimore has won 12 straight in division

First time since 2009 Steelers lost 2 straight games.

Pitt covering only 4 of 16 games when traveling.

Steelers (in the last 4 season) have won 78% of games (28-9) with Troy Polamalu in line-up. 50% (11-11) of games without.

One Pro bettor with 2 decades of experience called Pitt the best 6-5 team he’s ever seen.

Pitt outgained by 111 yards first match-up.

Browns at Raiders

Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 11-31 against the spread
(Would be first time Browns favored this season – only second time road favorite since 2007)
or
Raiders: 4-18 ATS as home favorite

Oakland: -101 ATS margin on the season.

Last 5 games, Browns have played:
Steelers, Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, Colts . . . not outgained by more than 15 yards in any game.

Raiders have yielded 23 touchdowns with only 6 INTs

Bengals at Chargers +1.5
Opened -1

Bengals: 5^th best YPP in NFL

“Dream Crushing” loss for San Diego last week.

Dalton: 9 TD and zero INTs last 3 games.

Eagles at Dallas -10
opened -9

Philly First time Double Digit Dog since 2007

Take points if professional team is trying. Is Philly trying?

Dallas: Covered only 2 of 14 at home
Last 3 seasons: the underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games (31-12 ATS)

Andy Reid is great on the road, covering over 60% of road games throughout his coaching career.
Away dogs in NFC East matchups: 20-7 ATS

Philly: One cover ATS this season.

The combined margin of all Eagles wins this season is 4 points
(i.e., 7 less points and Philly could be winless)

Giants at Washington +2.5

Wash: Has lost 9 of 11 at home.

Wash: best offense in NFL on YPP basis.

On road under Caughlin: 66% ATS (50-26) – never lost more games than won ATS in a season.

ALL about motivation: Giants exactly 50% (0 net YPP) in NFL.

RG3: 16 TD, 4 INT on season