Seattle at Chicago -3.5opened 4.5
Seattle:(since new stadium in 2002): 62% ATS at home (51-31-1)On road during same period: 36% (29-52-1)If simply play on at home, against on road: 103-60-1 (64% winners)
Bears CENTER out.
Russell Wilson at home: 11 TDs and zero INTS at home (6 TD and 8 INTs on road)
Seattle: long trip to Miami last week; now trip to Chicago.
Seattle: drug suspension distraction (this week, and season prospects)
Vikings at Packers -7.5opened 9.5
Green Bay off worse loss since 2007
Last 4 in series, GB has won by avg 19 ppg
San Fran at St. Louis +7
Jeff Fisher is 82-53 ATS (61%) in career as an underdog.
San Fran: second best offense in NFL on YPP basis and best defense (best NET)
Rams: one of the WORST special team units in league.
Off loss, 49ers covered by average 12 points per game under Harbarrah
Cards at Jets -4.5opened -4
Cards: Allowing 40 sacks the last 8 games (that more than any other team’s entire season total!)
Arizona worst offense in NFL on a YPP basis.
Arizona: 10 am body clock
Carolina at KC +3
Carolina: Only 5 teams with better net YPP in NFL
KC outscored by by a combined 140 points this season.
KC: last 19 games, scoring less than 13 ppg
Indy at Detroit -5opened -4.5
Luck: 9 TD, 3 INT at home; 4 TD, 10 INT on road
One pro bettor has Colts ranked 26th in league.
Lions play like a video game – a lot of bettors get excited by thatDetroit: 2nd in offensive yards, 14th in pointsDetroit: 13th in defensive yards, 23rd in pointsThe classic team that looks better than they actually perform
Jax at Bills -6
Road team has covered 10 of 11 Jacksonville games this season.
Henne: 99.6 passer rating (would be 7th best in league)
Bills: biggest favorite in any game since 2009 season.
Jax: 61 points last two games under Hene; 65 points the five games before that
Pats at Miami +7.5
Patriots lost 3 games by a combined 4 points this season.Patriots won 7 games by a combined 167 points this season
Visitor in Miami games 50-25 ATS (67%)
Pats: Play Texans next week on MNFBellichick: 11-4 ATS vs. rookie QBsPatriots have not lost turnover battle in any game this season.
Houston at Tennessee +6opened 4.5
Houston: Covered 17 of 21 with QB Schaub starting
Play Pats next week on MNF
Houston has not won by more than a TD in over a month.Houston: yielded 68 points last 2 games
Buccs at Denver -7opened -6.5
Buccs: Only team that has won 8 times ATS for backers.
Tampa better offense than Denver on a YPP basis.But . . . Denver has 3rd best defense (TB with 2nd worst defense)
Manning has SECOND HIGHEST QB rating in career.
Denver lost 2 straight against the spread (i.e., underperformed) Worst in the league giving up 315 ypp . . . no team in NFL history has every finished season giving up over 300.
Pitt at Baltimore
Baltimore has won 12 straight in division
First time since 2009 Steelers lost 2 straight games.
Pitt covering only 4 of 16 games when traveling.
Steelers (in the last 4 season) have won 78% of games (28-9) with Troy Polamalu in line-up. 50% (11-11) of games without.
One Pro bettor with 2 decades of experience called Pitt the best 6-5 team he’s ever seen.
Pitt outgained by 111 yards first match-up.
Browns at RaidersTeams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 11-31 against the spread(Would be first time Browns favored this season – only second time road favorite since 2007)orRaiders: 4-18 ATS as home favorite
Oakland: -101 ATS margin on the season.
Last 5 games, Browns have played:Steelers, Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, Colts . . . not outgained by more than 15 yards in any game.Raiders have yielded 23 touchdowns with only 6 INTs
Bengals at Chargers +1.5Opened -1
Bengals: 5th best YPP in NFL
“Dream Crushing” loss for San Diego last week.
Dalton: 9 TD and zero INTs last 3 games.
Eagles at Dallas -10opened -9
Philly First time Double Digit Dog since 2007
Take points if professional team is trying. Is Philly trying?
Dallas: Covered only 2 of 14 at homeLast 3 seasons: the underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games (31-12 ATS)
Andy Reid is great on the road, covering over 60% of road games throughout his coaching career. Away dogs in NFC East matchups: 20-7 ATS
Philly: One cover ATS this season.
The combined margin of all Eagles wins this season is 4 points(i.e., 7 less points and Philly could be winless)
Giants at Washington +2.5
Wash: Has lost 9 of 11 at home.
Wash: best offense in NFL on YPP basis.
On road under Caughlin: 66% ATS (50-26) – never lost more games than won ATS in a season.
ALL about motivation: Giants exactly 50% (0 net YPP) in NFL.
RG3: 16 TD, 4 INT on season
RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegasSunday: My Pro Bettor Dream Podcast - NFL Week 12 Deep Dive
Greatest thread every week. Thank you, RJ. Really nice stuff.
great help thanx rj!!
interesting stuff.it has been real crappy weather out in bay area.the wind sounds like its going through my house.i wonder what it will do to raider game.
centers mean alot to a team.rams get back theres and bears lose theres.hmmmm
Great stuff RJ, thanks for sharing
"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"
Best read of the week. Every week. Thanks RJ.
2013 CFB/Futures record 2013 NFL
Northern Illinois 13/10 6 - 7 - 2
Oregon 7/4 teasers: 1 - 1
record: 22 - 15
2012 CFB/Futures record
Wisconsin 3/2 to win BIG10
Oregon 9/4 to win PAC12
Oklahoma 1/1 to win BIG12 * Shared
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