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My personal NFL handicapping notes (Week 13)

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Thread Starter My personal NFL handicapping notes (Week 13)
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15121
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Seattle at Chicago -3.5
opened 4.5

Seattle:
(since new stadium in 2002): 62% ATS at home (51-31-1)
On road during same period: 36% (29-52-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 103-60-1 (64% winners)

Bears CENTER out.

Russell Wilson at home: 11 TDs and zero INTS at home (6 TD and 8 INTs on road)

Seattle: long trip to Miami last week; now trip to Chicago.

Seattle: drug suspension distraction (this week, and season prospects)

Vikings at Packers -7.5
opened 9.5

Green Bay off worse loss since 2007

Last 4 in series, GB has won by avg 19 ppg

San Fran at St. Louis +7

Jeff Fisher is 82-53 ATS (61%) in career as an underdog.

San Fran: second best offense in NFL on YPP basis and best defense (best NET)

Rams: one of the WORST special team units in league.

Off loss, 49ers covered by average 12 points per game under Harbarrah

Cards at Jets -4.5
opened -4

Cards: Allowing 40 sacks the last 8 games (that more than any other team’s entire season total!)

Arizona worst offense in NFL on a YPP basis.

Arizona: 10 am body clock

Carolina at KC +3

Carolina: Only 5 teams with better net YPP in NFL

KC outscored by by a combined 140 points this season.

KC: last 19 games, scoring less than 13 ppg

Indy at Detroit -5
opened -4.5

Luck: 9 TD, 3 INT at home; 4 TD, 10 INT on road

One pro bettor has Colts ranked 26th in league.

Lions play like a video game – a lot of bettors get excited by that
Detroit: 2nd in offensive yards, 14th in points
Detroit: 13th in defensive yards, 23rd in points
The classic team that looks better than they actually perform

Jax at Bills -6

Road team has covered 10 of 11 Jacksonville games this season.

Henne: 99.6 passer rating (would be 7th best in league)

Bills: biggest favorite in any game since 2009 season.

Jax: 61 points last two games under Hene; 65 points the five games before that

Pats at Miami +7.5

Patriots lost 3 games by a combined 4 points this season.
Patriots won 7 games by a combined 167 points this season

Visitor in Miami games 50-25 ATS (67%)

Pats: Play Texans next week on MNF

Bellichick: 11-4 ATS vs. rookie QBs

Patriots have not lost turnover battle in any game this season.

Houston at Tennessee +6
opened 4.5

Houston: Covered 17 of 21 with QB Schaub starting

Play Pats next week on MNF

Houston has not won by more than a TD in over a month.
Houston: yielded 68 points last 2 games

Buccs at Denver -7
opened -6.5

Buccs: Only team that has won 8 times ATS for backers.

Tampa better offense than Denver on a YPP basis.
But . . . Denver has 3rd best defense (TB with 2nd worst defense)

Manning has SECOND HIGHEST QB rating in career.

Denver lost 2 straight against the spread (i.e., underperformed)

Worst in the league giving up 315 ypp . . . no team in NFL history has every finished season giving up over 300.

Pitt at Baltimore

Baltimore has won 12 straight in division

First time since 2009 Steelers lost 2 straight games.

Pitt covering only 4 of 16 games when traveling.

Steelers (in the last 4 season) have won 78% of games (28-9) with Troy Polamalu in line-up. 50% (11-11) of games without.

One Pro bettor with 2 decades of experience called Pitt the best 6-5 team he’s ever seen.

Pitt outgained by 111 yards first match-up.

Browns at Raiders

Teams favored week after playing Mike Tomlin’s Steelers: 11-31 against the spread
(Would be first time Browns favored this season – only second time road favorite since 2007)
or
Raiders: 4-18 ATS as home favorite

Oakland: -101 ATS margin on the season.

Last 5 games, Browns have played:
Steelers, Cowboys, Ravens, Chargers, Colts . . . not outgained by more than 15 yards in any game.

Raiders have yielded 23 touchdowns with only 6 INTs

Bengals at Chargers +1.5
Opened -1

Bengals: 5th best YPP in NFL

“Dream Crushing” loss for San Diego last week.

Dalton: 9 TD and zero INTs last 3 games.

Eagles at Dallas -10
opened -9

Philly First time Double Digit Dog since 2007

Take points if professional team is trying. Is Philly trying?

Dallas: Covered only 2 of 14 at home
Last 3 seasons: the underdog has covered 72% of Dallas games (31-12 ATS)

Andy Reid is great on the road, covering over 60% of road games throughout his coaching career.
Away dogs in NFC East matchups: 20-7 ATS

Philly: One cover ATS this season.

The combined margin of all Eagles wins this season is 4 points
(i.e., 7 less points and Philly could be winless)

Giants at Washington +2.5

Wash: Has lost 9 of 11 at home.

Wash: best offense in NFL on YPP basis.

On road under Caughlin: 66% ATS (50-26) – never lost more games than won ATS in a season.

ALL about motivation: Giants exactly 50% (0 net YPP) in NFL.

RG3: 16 TD, 4 INT on season

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
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CincyJoe
Joined: 10/27/2011
Posts: 1433
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

Greatest thread every week. Thank you, RJ. Really nice stuff.

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15121
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Sunday bump.

---

RJ Bell: Best Bets | Free Picks | My Posts |My Blog |@Twitter
Called a "True Insider" by ESPN
Pick Virgins: $25 FREE! Buyers: 10% rebate!
I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!

heywally
Joined: 12/02/2012
Posts: 393
College Varsity
Not Ranked

TY

Vettman07
Joined: 10/14/2010
Posts: 584
All American
Not Ranked

great help thanx rj!!

jbird
Joined: 02/20/2010
Posts: 2480
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

interesting stuff.it has been real crappy weather out in bay area.the wind sounds like its going through my house.i wonder what it will do to raider game.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB6658253.23265.00
CFB47036.36-390.00
MLB2326046.94-562.00
NBA2629047.27-585.00
NFL209468.97955.00
NHL0100.00-145.00
jbird
Joined: 02/20/2010
Posts: 2480
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

centers mean alot to a team.rams get back theres and bears lose theres.hmmmm

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB6658253.23265.00
CFB47036.36-390.00
MLB2326046.94-562.00
NBA2629047.27-585.00
NFL209468.97955.00
NHL0100.00-145.00
JP548
Joined: 04/02/2010
Posts: 1204
Professional
Top 500 Contributor

"Caughlin" ?  

en.wikipedia.org/.../Tom_Coughlin

JP548

Griff
Joined: 08/20/2009
Posts: 22790
All Pro
Top 10 Contributor

Great stuff RJ, thanks for sharing

"EVERY DOG HAS HIS DAY"

TestyLefty
Joined: 11/20/2011
Posts: 200
Jr. College
Not Ranked

Best read of the week. Every week. Thanks RJ.

2013 CFB/Futures record                    2013 NFL

Northern Illinois 13/10                           6 - 7 - 2

Oregon 7/4                                             teasers: 1 - 1

Oklahoma State 5/2                              parlays:  0 - 1

record: 22 - 15

+/- 9.64

teasers:1-2

parlays:

2012 CFB/Futures record

Wisconsin 3/2 to win BIG10

Oregon 9/4 to win PAC12

Oklahoma 1/1 to win BIG12 * Shared

CFB: 51-46-2

NFL: 18-28

Overall:

73-76-2

Teasers: 4-8-1

Parlay: 0-2

Continue the talk @leftycordova on Twitter!

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