I've noticed a disturbing trend in the last few weeks from some of the Pregame Pros and from some of the forum members. I was sad to read several posts this morning from members who are either leaving or taking a break because of either poor money management or they just lost control.
The primary reason I'm moved to write this post is what I've noticed about Vegas Runner. I like VR and I'm not a VR hater. In fact, I've never purchased any of his picks, but I do listen to the videos and podcasts and greatly appreciate his insight. But here's my concern. At his first webinar with Johnny D, I made the comment that I was so impressed that he'd moved from quantity betting to quality betting, When I first joined Pregame about 18 months ago, VR was making multiple picks in multiple sports. He was even giving out MMA and boxing picks. Over the months, I noticed he was not only paring down his published picks, but also winning a lot more. When the webinar was taped, he even admitted he had embraced the quality approach and abandoned the quantity approach. But After his great run a month ago, I've noticed he's again making 5-7 picks a day. Now I have no idea what or how or even if VR bets in real life and quite frankly I don't really care. It's none of my business, but he is selling picks and those of us who aren't professional handicappers are apt to believe he has insight we don't.
Now before you accuse me of bashing VR, I'm not. He just happens to be the most visible example and it's easy to go back and look at his record of picks. The point I'm trying to make is in this frenetic world of sports betting, it's so easy to get wrapped up in the gambling "fix" while neglecting good common sense. I, for one, have blown through my bankroll on more than one occasion and when looking back on my picks, it's hard to remember just "why the ***" I even made that bet! What was I thinking? Did I think I had some 6th sense or I was Svengali?" No! I was caught up in the "fix" and judging from the posts I'm reading as of late, it appears this is more common for the sports gambler than the common cold. At least a cold goes away, a lost bankroll is usually lost forever.
So what am I trying to say here? Pay attention to what you're feeling. Are you chasing wins or are you plodding along and committed to this sports-betting game for the long term. I have learned, (and this is for me only) that I'm just as happy to work the numbers, make a small 1%-2% of my bankroll, and if it wins I'm completely satisfied, if it doesn't I'm not broke. Mind you, I hate to lose a 25 cent bet to a friend so I'm not likely to throw money away foolishly. I live in So. Cal and cap west coast hoops. My area of expertise is there. I've lived here for 59 years. I've been to the east coast once in my life and never to the midwest. Why would I bet on U Conn vs Indiana? I don't know shit about these schools. I don't listen to their sports-talk radio, I don't read their papers, I don't hear their news. I'd just be guessing. Folks, keep it simple. Look at the cappers who release only 1 or 2 picks a day and even pass on occasion. Read their comments and learn something. Then apply it to what you do know. And most importantly, don't feel pressured to bet if you're not sure. After all, that's all you've got. Work the numbers and if the numbers add up, make your pick. Then repeat.
I'm sorry to see pre game members leave because of poor money management, but it appears this is the primary reason gamblers go bust. It may be a delusion to think that "smarts and discipline" can outsmart the books, but I will bet you can't find 1 successful sport gambler who won't espouse money management as one of the primary keys to success. And I would suspect "patience" is #2.
Good luck with your capping and betting. And if you find yourself being sucked into the vortex of losing, take a step back - way back. Stop and collect yourself. Then, in the words of a great track coach who was asked how to coach successful runners to victory, he said, "Start slow, then taper off."
I just wish I did not let myself get swayed away from side I like....loved SF yesterday but let other opinions sway me to Norl....its on me of course to decide though....SD too, wasnt going to touch that game and it cost me, damn Chargers,lol
Great post. I used to run the two-mile in high school. The first mile was all about pace pace pace which took discipline. The start of the second is where you started passing other runners who blew themselves out in the first. On the last lap and a half is where the discipline paid off and you won (or came in fourth but you were never placed last)
Don't Be Stupid
Discipline, young purks. Discipline.
A very good analogy comparing money to stamina....
Howlin' Dogs ~ 4-5 (+226)
All lines from The Greek
Stanley Cup Futures;
St Louis Blues (+1800)
Detroit Red Wings (+3000)
Team to win the 2013 - 14 Men's NCAA Championship
Kansas (+2500) ~ Thanks, Dub...
"If man can save the parrots, he may yet save himself"
thanks for the post Scotty. Lots of good info there. I agree Dman. It's easy for me to get swayed by all the opinions on here. You gotta trust yourself. Everyone takes it on the chin once in a while.
This is the time of year when the majority of gamblers go broke. The football lines are tight as dick's hat band and basketball is a distraction 7 days a week. Too much action on -EV bets will always speed up the demise.
I'm not sure how people go broke betting units.
Where I'm from we bet $
BAL ORIOLES SEASON WINS u78½-115 CIN REDS SEASON WINS u91 -120 DET TIGERS SEASON WINS u92½-115 MIA MARLINS SEASON WINS o63 -165 PHI PHILLIES SEASON WINS o84 -140 MIN TWINS SEASON WINS o67½-160 TOR BLUE JAYS SEASON WINS o89 -125
"The phillies are going to be terrible" - Goodfella
I think what happens to a lot of Bettors is when they are winning or a short or long period of time, they get overconfident, start seeing things that aren't really there, and end up playing too many games. It's not hard to come victim to this. Good thread Scotty..
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I definitely agree with Deliveryman on getting swayed easily by multiple opinions on here.
I also liked SF initially but changed. Just one example of many lately...
I love all the insight on these boards but sometimes I wonder if it's better I don't even read all the threads lol