I'll talk to my sources in the betting community and add in some of my own knowledge from 30 years of bookmaking to give you insights into the biggest line moves.
I talked to John Avello from Wynn to get some of his comments on the early moves. John opens the first college football lines in Las Vegas.
Texas A&M/Auburn. A&M opened at -8.5 and has been steadily bet up to -14. Auburn has scored more than 20 points once all year, that was in their lone win, an overtime victory over ULM. There is no confidence they can score nearly enough to keep up with A&M. A huge move, looks like value on the dog, but no one beating down the doors to bet Auburn. Seems like a long time ago that Auburn and Cam Newton were at the top of the football world.
Florida/Georgia. Wynn opened the game Florida-4.5. I've seen other openers as low as 3.5 and as high as 5. UGa coming off two poor performances, a loss to South Carolina and a win over awful Kentucky. Florida has been stellar defensively. The opener had to be a bit short. UGa a little disappointing so far but defense has only had one poor effort (vs Tennessee).
Ohio State/Penn State. Wynn opened Ohio State -3, now they are down to OSU- but there are picks around as well as PSU-1. Two Big 10 stalwarts banned from bowls this season. Ohio State undefeated but wobbling the last two weeks with wins over the bottom of the league, a 3 point margin over Indiana and a late comeback and overtime win over Purdue. Penn State has gotten progressively better. No real marquis victories, but came off the mat 2 weeks ago vs Northwestern and dominated at Iowa. The Nits traditionally very strong at home.
South Florida/Syracuse. Wynn opened USF-7 now down to -3.5. Syracuse coming off a nice win over UConn while USF has lost 5 straight. USF a tough team for Johnny to handicap. They're a mystery to me too.
Southern Miss/Rice. So Miss opened -3.5 now Rice is -2. So Miss hasn't won a game all year. Rice has won 2. Fowler, Herbstreit and Corso will NOT be at this one.
UAB/Tulane. UAB opened -6 down to -3.5. The Blazers can't wait for basketball season. Tulane playing much better the last 2. You heard me.
Western Kentucky/Florida International. WKy opened -4.5 now up to -7. Johnny thinks he underestimated WKy, who had covered 15 in a row before last week's outright loss. I think Johnny's number was right on. With QB Jake Medlock at the helm for FIU good things can happen.
Chris Andrews - Nevada Bookmaker for 30 years!Writing Exclusively for Pregame.comFollow on Twitter: @AndrewsSports
A lot of moves off the opening line, as usual. Of course those are mostly wiseguys. Some betting trends are starting to emerge where we can anticipate the public weighing in.
Giant money pouring in with no let up in sight. Hard for anyone to imagine the Giants losing twice to the Cowboys. It is as my old buddy Mark "The Shamer" Henderson used to call it, a major reverter.
Public money showing up on the Pats. At under a touchdown viewed as a bargain for those still believing this is the team of the last decade and not the past 7 weeks.
San Diego with 2 weeks to prepare for the Browns are drawing money
Public enamored with RGIII and not impressed with the Steelers so far. Unfortunately the Skins still have to play defense.
Some public money on the Saints plus the points over the Broncos, which surprises me. That might turn around.
Money coming in on the 49ers in the Monday night game over the Cardinals. Tough for public to back Arizona after the way they have looked offensively.
Money showing for Clemson in the Thursday night game. No surprise.
Improving Indiana drawing support.
People betting against Iowa, which means on Northwestern.
Utah State getting bet as UTSA is fading.
Anti-Kansas money landing on Texas.
Public believing in Wisconsin after 3 wins over weak sisters of the Big 10.
Public looking for Oregon, Boise and La Tech blowouts.
Ohio State, USC, Florida and Oregon St getting public support in tough conference matchups.
Public continuing to bet point spread juggernaught Western Kentucky, but number has dropped in the last 24 hours.
Here are some of the biggest movers since yesterday's post:
Clemson has dropped to -11.5 as wiseguys take the dog. Numbers indicate Clemson has been a little lucky this season and is also coming off a big win vs Va Tech. Short week should help Wake Forest.
Ball St got bet up off the opener vs Army. The game went as high as -6, now down to -4.5. Be careful on this game.
The public continues to pound Texas A&M. Wiseguys might jump in on Auburn at some point, but not yet.
Stanford moved up to -25 over Wash St. Stanford as a huge favorite? I'm not so sure. Could be a set up. At least one anonymous bookmaker agrees with me.
Fresno St has gone from -12.5 to -13.5 over New Mexico. Fresno is very good, but New Mexico has been a covering machine. If the wiseguys were trying to move this to take +14, I would not be surprised.
SMU has gone from -20.5 to -21.5. I think this is a legit move. SMU can draw some wiseguy play.
Pats go from -6.5 to -7. This is not just public money. Some sharp play has also been involved in this move. The Rams, and particularly Bradford, have been awful on the road.
The Steelers have gotten healthy but public money has shown on the Skins. Skins have drawn money since the first game when RGIII looked like the real thing. This should be a big betting game with a ton of action both ways, with public and wiseguys.
Giants keep moving up, this game is -2 now with no one yet jumping in on the Cowboys. It could get to -3 before wiseguys see value.
One of my favorite threads on the site, appreciate the good work!
NFL Props (7-5) +5.3 unitsNBA Props (11-13-3) -7.05 unitsCBB Props (0-0) 0 units
Chris, thank you for the info. I enjoy reading about where the public and sharps are betting heavily.
Great. I hope it helps you make some money.
Thursday Line Move Log-
Relatively quiet except for tonight's game. Wiseguys took a strong position on Tampa Bay. However the public is heavily on the Vikings. There are still 6s around but in the sharper offices the Vikings-5 or -5.5 is the number. TV game like this might see a lot more 6s come post time. So if you want the dog, best to wait rather than take the 5.5. Buying 6-120 is not a positive expectation in the long run.
Wiseguys came back on Clemson strong. They got the game down to -11 or -11.5 and pushed it back to -13.
Army continues to draw money from wiseguys. I saw Ball St-3.5 today.
Some wiseguy play for Washington. You could take 4.5 yesterday, 3.5 is the best you'll find today in the sharp offices. Oregon State will attract public money keeping this line up.
Wiseguys came in heavy again on Fresno St. pushing it to -15 over New Mexico.
UL-Monroe bet down from -24.5 to -22 as sharp money played South Alabama.
Good two-way action on Oklahoma-Notre Dame although the price rose to Okla-11.
Iowa St-Baylor is another game getting two-way play with different groups of wiseguys on each side.
Long time reader...first time reading here...AWESOME stuff!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks for posting!
LOVED Clemson at -11....Like at -13.5.
Friday's line move log-
A little bit of a take on the Jags as those that had it up at 15 or 15.5 got bet down to 14.5. GB can't be too enthused about this matchup. Wiseguys looking for a Packer letdown.
Wiseguys and public both on Chargers over Browns. -3 Even is the predominant number up from 2.5. Browns playing ok, but SD off a bye and really needs to atone for their last appearance, the Bronco debacle. Lots of confidence in Norv Turner. Biting my lip.
A little money for the Chiefs at -1 after original move on Oakland+2.
Wiseguys took Iowa+6 vs Northwestern. Game down to 5.
Winless BC continues to draw wiseguy money while public bets Maryland. Terps down to 3rd string QB. BC went from -1.5 to -3.
Wiseguys took Miss St +24 vs Bama. Now -23.
Hawaii+7 vs Colo St was played. Game now 6.
Finally some takers on Auburn. From a high of A&M-16 now mostly 14.5 in sharp offices. There has to be some number that gives value on the dog, doesn't there? The clock will stop at some point and A&M won't be able to score any more.
Money for Kansas as wiseguys took anything over 20. Texas-19 now the number.
Wiseguys and public alike on Oregon over Colorado. Someone has to pay for Ducks drop in polls. Kelly may opt to keep foot on the pedal for the first time all year. Game went from -45.5 to -47.
South Florida back up to -3.5 after original move on Syracuse took game to 2.5. I like the dog a little but I don't think I've been right on Syracuse or So Fla the entire year. Dead serious.
UAB up to -5 over Tulane. Wiseguy money pushed it up. Surprisingly most of the public action is on Tulane. Go figure.
Wiseguys took Florida International +7 over Western Kentucky. Game down to 6. I said early in the week I thought Johnny Avello's opening number 4.5 was the right line.
With everything that's happened in Las Vegas and off-shore this week I'm very interested to see how things play out on the betting board. We shall see.