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Mathematical Effect of Replacement Refs

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Thread Starter Mathematical Effect of Replacement Refs
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 14218
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Home crowds seem to be influencing the replacement officials:
Home teams won 14 of 16 games last week.
Home teams won 11, lost 4, and tied 1 (73%) against the Vegas spread last week.

More Pass Interference calls leading to more points:
43 pass interference penalties after two weeks of play.
The prior 3 seasons averaged only 24 pass inference penalties after two weeks (79% increase).

This different approach to calling the game is seemingly contributing to additional scoring:
Last season the average over/under total (i.e., projected points) was 43.7 per game.
The average over/under total this week is 46.1 points (2.4 more points expected by Vegas per game)

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RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
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How much risk is there for fixed games with replacement refs?

Read here:

pregame.com/.../368745.aspx

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Sam Waters
Joined: 09/14/2012
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Dont have the numbers. But I would assume Illegal contact and Defensive holding penalties are down. Either way I am shocked how much players and coaches are talking refs into calls. Good stuff RJ.

No Limit
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There were 1556 points scored in the 1st two weeks of the 2012 season, the most ever in the 1st two weeks in NFL history.

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RJ_Bell
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Great stat, NL!

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RJ_Bell
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738 combined points are projected by Vegas for the upcoming Week 3 games.

That is the MOST POINTS EVER projected by Vegas for one week of NFL football.

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m00coyne
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Although, I'm sure part of these stats is based on the refs...it can also be attributed to the offenses getting better and better on a yearly basis.

CFB 2012

5 units (18-5) +62.5 units
4 units (28-17) +37.2 units
3 units (28-25) +1.5 units
2 units (21-15) +9.0 units
1 unit  (7-7) -0.7 units

Total record (102-69)(60%) +109.5 units!!

Brandon Watson
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There's no question these officials are out of their leagues (literally) and are being influenced. Hell, did you see all the stuff ESPN had on the one guy for being a fan of the Saints? Shut his ass down for the rest of the year. But Goodell and the NFL don't care. All they see is dollar signs because the league isn't going to get shut down, it's on TV and more popular than ever. So what if the officials stink, why pay "real" officials 150 times what these guys make plus medical insurance, etc. Face it, replacement refs are here to stay.

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RoyVines
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Its a good subject. The numbers are staggering but how could you possibly prove the numbers have anything to do with replacement refs. Are the refs being more influenced by the home crowd, or are home teams just playing better? Maybe corners and db's are just more aggressive this year? Who knows? I'm playing devils advocate, but personally the adjustments in terms of handicapping should be minimal until we can absolutely certain the replacements are having a substantial effect. Great topic

Toofdoc
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Wow, I guess this proves just how out of touch with reality I am because it seemed to me that the replacements were letting them play tighter pass defense and keeping the hanky cleaner.  I need to start paying attention!

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